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Preview: Michigan State at Michigan

Michigan State freshman running back Le’Veon Bell

Rush Offense vs. Michigan State Rush Defense
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is currently the #1 rusher in all of college football, and the Wolverines are the #3 rushing offense in the country.  Co-starting running back Michael Shaw should return from a tweaked knee to help out fellow starter Vincent Smith in the backfield, but neither has been extremely productive this season.  Shaw picked up a good chunk of his numbers against UMass, and Smith was unspectacular until his 56-yard touchdown run last week against Indiana; aside from that outburst, he’s averaging 3.78 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, Michigan State is ranked #20 against the run this season and just finished beating a run-heavy Wisconsin team.  Many media outlets suggested that MSU shut down Wisconsin’s run game, but UW averaged 5.3 yards per carry throughout the contest.  While the Spartans should be the toughest run defense Michigan has seen, no team has been able to come close to shutting down Robinson and his minions in the run game.  Despite the underperforming running backs, Robinson averages 9.2 yards a carry – and that’s despite missing the majority of the BGSU game due to injury.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense
It seems that a lot of people are overlooking this aspect of the matchup.  The Wolverines are the #38 passing offense in the country, while MSU lingers at #78.  With all the talent that MSU has recruited up front in the past few years, the secondary is suspect.  Tate Forcier had a subpar day for most of the 2009 game, but he finished with 223 yards and 2 touchdowns last season, including some big plays in the passing game.  If Michigan has early success in the running game, that should open up downfield throws.  Denard Robinson missed a couple streaking, wide open receivers last week against Indiana, and he’ll need to capitalize on those opportunities this week.  I don’t expect that Robinson will end up throwing for 400 yards or anything crazy like that, but big plays are bound to be there for the taking. 
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Michigan State Rush Offense
Michigan is ranked #37 in rush defense, although that statistic is a bit misleading.  With as bad as Michigan’s secondary is, teams like Indiana, Notre Dame, and UConn have been content to chuck the ball all over the field.  Of those top 37 teams, Michigan allows the fourth-highest yards per carry average (3.66).  This might be where the game is won or lost.  MSU’s starting running back, Edwin Baker, is averaging 7.1 yards per carry . . . and there’s not much dropoff when he comes out of the game, with top backup Le’Veon Bell averaging 7.4 yards per carry.  In fact, that’s not a dropoff at all.  Michigan has done a pretty good job of preventing huge runs so far this season, but teams have been able to get yards in chunks.  The difference this week might be that Baker and Bell have the ability to turn 15- or 20-yard runs into 80-yard runs.  Baker has speed that Michigan’s safeties can’t match, and Bell has the power to run through a lot of tackles.  Unlike previous opponents, I wouldn’t be surprised to see MSU run the ball, run the ball, and run it some more.
Advantage: Michigan State

Pass Defense vs. Michigan State Pass Offense
Ugh.  Rushing the ball is probably the safer option, but if the Spartans need to pass, they’ll be able to do so at will.  MSU quarterback Kirk Cousins is completing 67.5% of his passes and has a few good options to whom to throw the ball.  The only good thing is that Cousins has thrown four interceptions in his five games, so Michigan does have a chance to force some turnovers.  However, I truly believe that Michigan needs to rush four or more defenders in order to have a chance against the pass.  If the Wolverines keep rushing three, Cousins will have all day to pick apart Michigan’s makeshift secondary.  Michigan is literally last in the country against the pass, and there’s no reason to believe that Saturday will show any kind of significant turnaround in that area.
Advantage: Michigan State

Final Predictions

• For the second time this season, Michigan will get outgained by an opponent.
• Denard Robinson will get injured and miss time . . . again.
• We see Michigan’s first trick play of the season (double pass, reverse, fake field goal, etc.).
• Roy Roundtree will have a huge game.
• Michigan State 38, Michigan 35

Poll: Who should be the backup free safety?

Freshman safety Marvin Robinson

A couple weeks ago, a poll question asked “Now that Vladimir Emilien has transferred, who should be the backup free safety?”  Here were the results out of 98 votes:

Marvin Robinson: 61%
Ray Vinopal: 34%
Brandin Hawthorne: 4%
Other: 0%

The poll winner, Marvin Robinson, is still listed as the backup to Jordan Kovacs at Bandit.  So the coaches have obviously chosen Vinopal to move up from fourth string to second string (remember, aside from the Emilien transfer, Jared Van Slyke is out for the season due to injury).

I’d like to see what Marvin Robinson can do on the football field, whether it’s at Bandit or free safety.  I think he’s a superior athlete to Vinopal.  However, there were some questions about Robinson’s speed coming out of high school, and it probably wouldn’t be a good idea to concentrate multiple linebacker/safety hybrids at the free safety position, like Robinson and Cameron Gordon.  I’m okay with Robinson staying at Bandit for this year, but I do think that Michigan should continue to look for solutions at free safety.  I don’t know that a long-term answer at FS is currently on the roster.

Slightly Attractive Michigan Girl of the Week: Rima Fakih

Rima Fakih

Okay, she attended the University of Michigan-Dearborn.  That’s not exactly the same as going to school in Ann Arbor, but she is Miss Michigan, so I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt.

Former Michigan Athlete of the Week: Charles Woodson

Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson had a great game against the Detroit Lions on Sunday.  He finished the day with 13 tackles, 3 pass breakups, and 1 interception that was returned 48 yards for a touchdown.  The Packers won by a final of 28-26.

Honorable mention: St. Louis Rams defensive end James Hall finished with 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and 1 quarterback hurry.  The Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks, 20-3.

Mailbag: Why the Roy Roundtree love?

RE: Roundtree: His lack of speed is evident. It basically cost us the Illinois game last year, and almost cost us the Indiana game this year. (Its never just about one play, but if he doesn’t get caught on those plays we maybe/probably get 7 extra points that don’t make these gains seem so bad) Speed and big play ability has been hailed in this blog (Shaw on O and the critiques for Gordon/Kovacs on D) but Roundtree has gotten a bit of a free pass.


Most of Roundtree’s big plays are the result of Denard and scheme. He runs, untouched, thanks to the defense’s attention being elsewhere. He’s a good player (that ND catch to get to the goalline was the best play of his career IMO) but he’s benefiting from circumstance. Odoms was pretty productive in the same role and Grady has had some big plays in the backup guy.  The slots all have a similar YPC, while Stonum, TRob, and Hemingway all have bigger YPC.


I’m not saying Roundtree should be benched, I’m just wondering why the love for Roundtree is so strong but another productive/reliable player like Smith gets killed.

First of all, let’s take a look at the facts.  Lankownia says that the slots all have similar yards per catch, and a few other wide receivers have better yards per catch.  So let’s see . . .

Roy Roundtree: 25 catches, 337 yards, 13.6 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Darryl Stonum: 15 catches, 226 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Martavious Odoms: 14 catches, 165 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Kelvin Grady: 8 catches, 105 yards, 12.1 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Junior Hemingway: 6 catches, 190 yards, 31.7 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Jeremy Gallon: 2 catches, 25 yards, 12.5 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Terrence Robinson: 1 catch, 43 yards, 43.0 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns

So if we’re just talking about yards per catch, Roundtree is fourth on the team behind Terrence Robinson, Junior Hemingway, and Darryl Stonum.  Robinson only has one catch this season, so it’s hard to tell how talented he is.  Surely his 43.0 yards per catch wouldn’t hold up throughout an entire season.

That leaves Stonum and Hemingway as legitimately more dangerous players, right?  Sure, I guess.  But those solid numbers are also a function of their positions.  In Rich Rodriguez’s offense, the outside receivers are expected to a) block, b) run intermediate routes, and c) run go routes.  It should be expected that these players will have higher yards per catch, because short routes aren’t in their arsenal.  They either catch the ball downfield, or they don’t catch the ball at all.

In the meantime, Roy Roundtree plays slot receiver.  Slot receiver in this offense is much like running back, because a large portion of Roundtree’s catches are bubble screens, which are essentially long handoffs.  Lankownia states that Martavious Odoms was pretty productive as a slot receiver, too, but these two slot receivers don’t compare.  Between 2008 and 2009, Odoms averaged 35.5 receptions, 357.5 yards, and .5 touchdowns.  In 10 career games as a slot receiver, Roundtree has 57 catches for 771 yards and 5 touchdowns.  And while Odoms only averaged 10.1 yards per reception in 2008-09, Roundtree has him beat by about 3.5 yards per catch.  That’s a pretty significant difference.

Lankownia seems to be frustrated that Roundtree has been unable to score on a couple long receptions.  He had a 76-yarder against Illinois last year on which he was caught at the 1-yard line, and there was the 74-yarder against Indiana this past weekend on which Roundtree was stopped on the 2-yard line.  I have a hard time criticizing a guy whose biggest fault seems to be that his 75-ish-yard catches don’t turn into 77-ish-yard catches.  Those plays would probably be remembered more fondly if Rich Rodriguez hadn’t chosen noted softy Carlos Brown and 5’6″ Vincent Smith, respectively, to try to punch those subsequent plays into the endzone; in case your memory is failing you right now, both Brown and Smith failed. 

Regarding Roundtree’s supposed lack of speed vs. the lack of speed for Cameron Gordon and Jordan Kovacs, I don’t see Roundtree’s footspeed as a huge problem.  Again, when a guy is averaging 13.6 yards a catch and has the ability to make 76-yard catch-and-run plays, I’m not going to complain.  Roundtree has the necessary skills to be a very successful wide receiver, even if his speed leaves a tiny bit to be desired.  The problem with Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs is that their lack of speed specifically prevents them from doing their jobs.  As safeties, their jobs presumably entail preventing the other team from making big plays and scoring.  When an Indiana running back outruns you for 85 yards (Jordan Kovacs) and when a 265 lb. tight end outruns you for 95 yards (Cam Gordon), there’s a problem with that.  And when both of those guys are playing in the same defensive backfield, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Lankownia also says that Roundtree’s production is the result of Denard’s running ability.  If that’s true, then why did Roundtree catch 32 passes for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns with Tate Forcier running the show last year?  Teams weren’t really afraid of Forcier’s running, but Roundtree still found a way to lead the team in receiving in scant playing time.

The premise for Lankownia’s statement about Smithis questionable, in my opinion.  It presumes that Vincent Smith is a productive running back.  As I noted in a recent post, Smith is the 8th-best running back (by yards per carry) in the Big Ten + Notre Dame.  Those mediocre numbers are in conjunction with a Heisman candidate at quarterback and a good offensive line.  Even if Smith is the best running back Michigan has to offer – which I obviously don’t believe – that doesn’t mean he’s productive.  Meanwhile, Roundtree consistently finds himself in open areas of the field, whether the quarterback is Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson.  I don’t know what it is, but Roundtree has that “It Factor” that some guys just happen to have.  He catches the ball, makes an occasional big play, blocks well (watch Brandon Minor’s TD run against Purdue in 2009), makes people miss, and most importantly, he gets open.

I can’t make this clear enough, but it’s worth repeating: I don’t hate Vincent Smith.  I don’t have a personal grudge against him.  I’m not against short backs (I loved to watch Darren Sproles when he was at Kansas State), I’m not against dreadlocks (Denard Robinson has quickly grown into one of my favorite players), and it’s not about recruiting rankings (Michael Cox wasn’t a highly touted recruit, either).  I quite simply believe that Smith shouldn’t be getting the most carries for this team.  And while Smith has been just so-so in his two seasons, Roundtree has been somewhere between above average and spectacular.