Final TTB Ratings for 2016

Final TTB Ratings for 2016


May 23, 2016

Rashan Gary

This post has been delayed for a bit. It probably would have been done sooner if not for the fact that Michigan got commitments from 29 players in the class of 2016, so there was a lot of film to review. Also, life got in the way a couple weekends ago when I planned to spend some time putting together this post.

Anyway, these ratings are designed to project how I see their careers developing at Michigan. For example, a running back who might get a chance to shine early at Indiana could be in a tooth-and-nail battle for playing time at Michigan. So these ratings are specific to Michigan, and do not necessarily reflect a prospect’s overall ability.

Ranked from highest final rating to lowest final rating, here are Michigan’s members of the 2016 class:

Rashan Gary: 100
He’s the consensus #1 prospect in the country, and his game translates well to a lot of places, including the NFL.

TE Devin Asiasi: 92
With his prodigious talent and Jim Harbaugh’s usage of the tight end, I see no reason why Asiasi – who is big, can block, can catch, and can run – can’t be a high draft pick in three to five years. Sometimes other things get in the way, but he’s the most well rounded TE prospect to come to Michigan in a long time.

CB David Long: 92
I still think Long is an excellent prospect who brings a good combination of physicality and athleticism, along with a good head on his shoulders.

Hit the jump for the rest of the 2016 recruiting class.

QB Brandon Peters: 86 90
Peters has grown on me – no pun intended – to the point where I really like him as a prospect. The more I’ve seen of him, the more I think he’s a guy who’s going to really rely on timing and chemistry with his teammates. He has a strong arm, but he throws with nice touch. It’s tough to throw with touch, though, when you don’t have a great grasp on your receivers’ speed and the defense’s speed. He’s a guy who needs a couple years to percolate.

WR Eddie McDoom: 84 89
Golly gee, I like this kid. One thing that I’ve come to appreciate even more when watching his film again is his vision and field awareness. He just seems to have a great sense of where his blocks are developing, the proper angles to avoid defenders, etc. Add in decent size and pretty good speed, and he could be an outstanding wideout.

K Quinn Nordin: 89
I’m no kicking expert, and highlight videos of kickers are very unreliable. This is entirely based on other services’ rankings.

OL Ben Bredeson: 88
Watching Bredeson’s film is frustrating because I don’t like a lot of the things Bredeson is doing from a technique standpoint. However, he’s doing some of those things consistently, so he seems to be coached that way. Bredeson can play several positions on the offensive line, he can bend, and he’s tough.

RB Kareem Walker: 88 86
I’ve said this before, but Walker is that running back who seems to be pretty solid in a lot of areas but doesn’t leap out in any one particular way. He should be good behind what I assume will be a solid offensive line, but he could also lose playing time to a more dynamic runner.

LB Devin Bush, Jr.: 85
I didn’t see anything this past fall (or spring) to change my opinion on Bush. He has some size limitations, but otherwise, he’s solidly built enough to play linebacker in the Big Ten, and he’s a pretty good athlete.

CB Lavert Hill: 81 84
Hill is a step behind Long physically and technique-wise, in my opinion, but he has good long-term upside with his speed and hips.

DE Carlo Kemp: 79 84
He was supposedly playing some linebacker upon arrival at Michigan a few months ago, but he was playing defensive end by the conclusion of the spring. That’s his best fit, in my opinion. Solidly built and a good athlete, I like his instincts and his offensive experience as he transitions full-time to defense.

DE Ron Johnson, Jr.: 83
Johnson is a little bit inconsistent to me. Sometimes he uses good technique, and sometimes he doesn’t. Sometimes he’s very physical, and sometimes not so much. I think it’s an effort/concentration thing, and I think those things usually get ironed out after some time playing with and competing against other very good athletes.

DE Joshua Uche: 80 82
I really like Uche’s speed and quickness coming off the edge. A lack of size might be an issue, but I’m exciting about his pass-rushing capabilities.

WR Kekoa Crawford: 83 81
I’m having a hard time pinning Crawford down when it comes to a Michigan comparison. He’s a wide receiver with a running back’s game. He’s a bigger, more athletic Drew Dileo, I guess. I’m not so sure he’s All-Big Ten material, so I’m dropping him a couple points.

LB Khaleke Hudson: 77 80
I think Hudson is an excellent prospect for Don Brown’s SAM position, although I think his size might be a limitation if he’s looking at a potential NFL career.

WR Ahmir Mitchell: 83 79
Mitchell is one of those perplexing athletes who looks really good with the ball in his hands, but you’re not sure how you’ll get it to him. He’s big and fairly fast, but he fights the ball sometimes. Does he turn into Braylon Edwards or LaTerryal Savoy?

LB Elysee Mbem-Bosse: 78
Mike McCray II seems to on this path, and I think that’s a pretty good approximation.

OL Michael Onwenu: 74 78
I’m stubborn, so maybe I just refuse to change my stance. But I just don’t see Onwenu as an offensive lineman. He takes a lot of plays off, and sometimes he just seems disinterested in using the technique that I’m sure he was coached. I’d rank him higher as a nose tackle. I’m moving him up because I think he’ll have to play in a couple years due to the depth chart, but his ceiling is higher on defense.

TE Sean McKeon: 83 77
I think McKeon might get outshined by other guys (such as Asiasi), but it’s hard to pick against a Jim Harbaugh-recruited tight end. He might be one of those players who emerges in year four or five after Asiasi leaves, or maybe he’ll just be a very solid second option to go along with Asiasi or others. He’s a good prospect, but not as smooth of an athlete as Asiasi or even Nick Eubanks.

S Josh Metellus: 71
I don’t think Metellus is anything special athletically, but that’s sometimes overrated for a strong safety. He’s a decent enough athlete, and it’s important to be heady at that position. I think he could be a starter a few years down the road if he improves his field awareness.

FB Kingston Davis: 80 70
I’m ranking Davis as a fullback, even though he and his dad have insisted that he’s a tailback. That was the case with Wyatt Shallman, too, and look where he is after three years. Davis reportedly checked in at a camp last summer at 242 lbs., and he looked too big for the running back role last fall. I believe he has trimmed some weight and he’s supposedly down to around 225 lbs. now, but he could be a dynamic combo fullback, whereas I think he’s limited as a tailback.

WR Nate Johnson: 76 70
Despite the fact that his senior film is, ahem, enhanced at a couple points, I like Johnson. I’m not sure sure how well he fits with Michigan’s offense, though, and I’m a bit turned off by some of the showboating, waffling on his commitment, etc. I’m not sure that he’ll reach his athletic potential.

DT Michael Dwumfour: 69
I like Dwumfour and I think he could tear it up at some programs.

RB Chris Evans: 79 68
Evans is a tricky tweener of a player. Is he a running back, a slot receiver, or something else? Considering the makeup of the team and the recruiting class, I think he deserves a shot at running back, but he’s not a guy I see as a full-time player there. Evans looks like a player you might toy with as a receiver out of the backfield, running draws, etc.

OL Stephen Spanellis: 63 66
I’m upgrading Spanellis a little bit because I like his mentality, and I think that will mesh well with this coaching staff. He’s still not an athlete that looks destined for the NFL.

WR Brad Hawkins, Jr.: 80 65
Part of this drop is due to the other guys Michigan is bringing in at wide receiver, and part of it is due to Hawkins himself. I don’t see a great athlete at wide receiver (or as a defensive back, as some have suggested), and I don’t see the same kind of fire with the ball in his hands like I see in someone like Crawford.

LB Devin Gil: 58 63
I’m glad the charade of Gil being a safety is over. He mentioned around National Signing Day that he was coming to Michigan as a linebacker and had already bulked up to about 225 lbs. Gil might be more of a middle linebacker than Bush, because Gil’s decent when you’re running at him, but he’s a little slow and stiff in pursuit.

LB Dytarious Johnson: 77 61
I like Johnson’s abilities more than this final rating indicates, but he didn’t qualify in time to sign a National Letter of Intent and his senior year didn’t necessitate keeping him in the 70’s. There are some questions, in fact, about whether he’ll ever suit up for Michigan due to some lingering academic snags.

TE Nick Eubanks: 44
A boom-or-bust prospect, Michigan has a lot of a good tight ends and Eubanks has a lot to work on. I don’t see him panning out, but if he learns the game and adds some weight, he could be a big-play threat from the TE position.

26 comments

  1. DonAZ
    Comments: 514
    Joined: 8/12/2015
    DonAZ
    May 23, 2016 at 7:42 AM

    I really wish I saw more offensive linemen high on your list …

  2. Avatar
    Comments: 1300
    Joined: 8/13/2015
    Roanman
    May 23, 2016 at 8:35 AM

    Nick Eubanks chose to come here because Harbaugh showed him the plan for Eubanks as a TE/H Back. I watched his film again this morning and I see Shawn Crable II, just a deadly 6’6 250 lb. speed rushing DE. And a personal foul, just waiting to happen.

    I’m positive that I saw some film of Chris Evans playing some defense. I can no longer find it. Anyway, I hadn’t looked at his senior film until just now. He is a bunch thicker than he was as a junior, still way dynamic with the ball in his hands, more so really. On the second play of his senior film, he gets some kid one on one out in the open, sets him up, sinks his hips and freezes him on one step and blows by the other side with the next. It ws an impressive, absolutely natural move. I think it’s gonna be real hard to keep him off the field even if he’s a specialist of some kind ….. return man maybe. I’d be real tempted to see if he can press cover, he’s a real nice combination of hips, strength and acceleration.

    The other guy that nobody I know likes but me is Brad Hawkins. On his hi light real he just looks like to me like a natural born Free Safety. I dunno, he just looks like a kid that both sees it and gets it.

    I keep thinking Ahmir Mitchell is a Safety as well. But I dunno, maybe he’ll fall in love with the Jugs Machine. It would certainly be nice to have a big, fast, physical man running around out there abusing CBs and stretching the field.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3648
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      May 23, 2016 at 8:17 PM

      I’m not in love with Hawkins’s instincts on defense. I also see him as more of a strong safety than a free safety if he ends up on that side of the ball.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1300
        Joined: 8/13/2015
        Roanman
        May 24, 2016 at 9:18 AM

        See what I mean?

        I’m the only guy.

  3. Avatar
    Comments: 1891
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    May 23, 2016 at 9:29 AM

    Wow, this commit list doesn’t look nearly as promising as it did in February, especially on the OLine

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1300
      Joined: 8/13/2015
      Roanman
      May 23, 2016 at 3:43 PM

      There is some nuance to Thunder’s rating system than one needs to keep in mind in order to avoid becoming upset or morose. By my count 22 guys fall into the catagory of soldid BIG starter or better. Many are significantly better. This is a helluva class.

      Additionally, you might take exception to individual ratings of some kids. For example, under Thunder’s criteia, I put Evans at 74 or better and drop Nate Johnson into the very low 60s. I think Eubanks could be hell on wheels as a DE but doesn’t have enough hands to see the field as a TE. A lot of that kids future depends on his willingness to change positions and keep his head right. Athough that could probably be said of all of us.

      100 = Best prospect in the country at his position; high likelihood of 1st round NFL potential (Ex: Charles Woodson)

      90-99 = Outstanding starter in Big Ten; likely All-Big Ten and All-American; high likelihood of NFL draft potential (Ex: Brandon Graham, Taylor Lewan)

      80-89 = Very good starter in Big Ten; good chance of All-Big Ten; some NFL draft potential (Ex: Mike Martin, Jonas Mouton, Denard Robinson)

      70-79 = Solid starter in Big Ten; some NFL draft potential (Ex: Brandon Minor, Craig Roh)

      60-69 = Average starter in Big Ten; little NFL draft potential (Ex: Ricky Barnum, Mark Ortmann)

      50-59 = Below average starter or good backup (Ex: Greg Banks, John Ferrara)

      40-49 = Average backup or solid special teams contributor (Ex: Darnell Hood)

      1-39 = Below average backup or special teams contributor (Ex: Brandon Logan)

    • Tartarsauce
      Comments: 77
      Joined: 1/22/2016
      Tartarsauce
      May 23, 2016 at 6:37 PM

      I feel the exact opposite, the class looks much better. There were only 6 guys who signed an LOI with below a 70 TTB rating. And I think two of those guys are going to really outperform their rating in Dwumfour and Eubanks.

      • Thunder
        Comments: 3648
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        May 23, 2016 at 8:21 PM

        Right. I think this still looks like a good class. If 22 of 29 players end up as good as or better than Brandon Minor, Craig Roh, etc., we’re in very good shape. In fact, that estimate is probably overly optimistic. It’s probably rare that a class of 29 players ends up being that productive. You might have a higher hit rate with a class of 15, but with 29 kids, some of those kids are going to drive others to quit, transfer, etc.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1891
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        May 23, 2016 at 10:46 PM

        I should probably explain a little better. For awhile there we had the potential for a top notch OL class. We ended up with consecutive years of underwhelming hogs, and that could hurt (as soon as next year).
        This 2017 class will really need to clean up on Tackles; right now I see Newsome as a possible stud, but who knows? At RT, who will we have next year? It’ll be interesting to say the least, but could also be ugly

        • Avatar
          Comments: 1300
          Joined: 8/13/2015
          Roanman
          May 24, 2016 at 8:19 AM

          Offesive line is in my view the toughest position to evaluate or predict. Just for starters, especially if you’re me, unless the camera angle is real good, it’s really hard to see on film just exactly what’s going on beyond the hole is there or it ain’t.

          Secondly, lot’s and lots of low rated OL guys come to college and end up being high NFL draft picks. We just sent a walkon Glasgow to the Detroit Lions in the third round.. Sparty just sent a walkon tackle to the NFL on the 8th overall pick. Western Michigan sent a kid to the NFL as a first round LT that had come in as a Western type 2/3 star TE, That kind of thing happens far more frequently on the offensive line than at any other position. Really big kids, with very few exceptions, take a lot longer to mature into their bodies than do the skill kids.

          Finally, the offensive line, probably more than any other position is about technique. Technique takes coaching and time. A big, tough 18 year old kid with a nasty disposition has a real good shot at growing up to be a drive blocking terror, particularly in this offenseive scheme.

          Keep your chin up.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 1300
            Joined: 8/13/2015
            Roanman
            May 24, 2016 at 8:50 AM

            Ignore the “finally” above, I couldn’t stop.

            Thunder thinks that Spanellis is a guard, I thought originally that wasn’t likely as there is nothing on his film that would make you think that he’s nimble enough to pull effectively. As an aside, I’m pretty sure it’s the pulling that makes so many people think that Peae is a better guard than he is a D lineman, because it’s “Whoa Baby!!!” when he comes around, But in our system, while it’s better if the kid has feet for pulling, we simulate pulling guards all the time via motioning big assed TE’s and H Backs. You might have noticed we have those in abundance. Some might try to tell you that we have too many. If your Right Gaurd isn’t the nimblest of guys, motion Wheatly or Asiasi or Hill over to kick out Sam or whomver. Cave in the backside with Spanellis and Ulizio.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 5965
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            May 24, 2016 at 11:45 AM

            Lot to agree with here. Given the uncertainty of OL, I like to see numbers. I know some positions move around but it feels like these recruiting classes have been too light on OL to me, in particular OTs. We’ll see what happens with the ’17 class.

  4. Avatar
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    Joined: 8/11/2015
    umfarnn
    May 23, 2016 at 10:11 AM

    Thanks for putting this together, nice to see all the rankings unpdated and in one spot.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3648
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      May 24, 2016 at 8:44 PM

      You’re welcome.

  5. Avatar
    Comments: 286
    Joined: 12/19/2015
    Extrajuice
    May 23, 2016 at 11:22 AM

    So, Peters grew on you? I’m gonna guess 2 or 3 of the Johnson’s will too. Any concerns about their size? As for Bush, we’re all excited!

    (I had an Enis joke too but he pulled out)

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 5965
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      May 23, 2016 at 12:19 PM

      I was about to ask where the pun was – good thing I read the comments first.

  6. Lanknows
    Comments: 5965
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    May 23, 2016 at 12:23 PM

    Respect for ranking some kids low. That’s the reality of the situation, some of these guys are going to fall by the wayside and not everyone can be a starter.

    All of this is guesswork, but I’d put Eubanks higher simply because Michigan is going to want an impact receiver to replace Butt and Wheatley may block the blocking TEs like Asiasi and McKeon from seeing a lot of snaps soon. I know Bunting and Gentry are there too, so there’s a jumble of bodies but Eubanks is the one that jumps out at me due to athleticism, skill, and role.

  7. Lanknows
    Comments: 5965
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    May 23, 2016 at 12:23 PM

    Is Shallman not still at RB?

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3648
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      May 23, 2016 at 8:22 PM

      He was playing FB in the spring.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5965
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        May 24, 2016 at 11:48 AM

        Still a RB on the roster FWIW. He’s a senior now so I don’t know if it’s too late or what. Will be interesting to see what happens for his 5th year.

        I always thought he’d end up at DE given his size.

  8. Lanknows
    Comments: 5965
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    May 23, 2016 at 12:30 PM

    What is it about Hawkins that got him so many offers?

    The last guy I asked this about was Poggi and he’s been a bit of nomad with marginal impact thusfar.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3648
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      May 23, 2016 at 8:24 PM

      I don’t really know. Maybe I’m wrong. Those coaching staffs know more than me. But Florida, Ohio State, Notre Dame, etc. did offer. It’s a solid offer list.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5965
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        May 24, 2016 at 11:49 AM

        Yep, like Poggi the offer list seems to exceed the scouting reports. Might be a low-ceiling guy who teams think can be a possession receiver. Interesting one…

        • Thunder
          Comments: 3648
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          May 24, 2016 at 8:45 PM

          I know you like to use offer lists as indicators of talent, so maybe Poggi, Hawkins, etc. are checks in the opposing column.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 5965
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            May 25, 2016 at 12:52 PM

            Talent’s probably not the right word. When I think talent I think NFL potential. I think offers are more about potential college production. Related, but not the same thing.

            But yeah, my hypothesis on Poggi was that it was about his low floor, and high likelihood of at least contributing (at some position) given his character and physical maturity. Being a coach’s son at a successful program with lots of brothers seemed to play into things a bit.

            Not sure what it is about Hawkins, but it may be a similar situation where they like his physical maturity and feel confident he can contribute somewhere. Or maybe the pundits are wrong and he’s the next Braylon Edwards. I’ll wait and see on this one, but I’m intrigued by these types of recruits who offers exceed their profile otherwise.

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