Derrick Walton
I avoid posting much about basketball until after National Signing Day, because there’s too much football-related stuff going on for a part-time blogger to cover everything. However, it’s nice to sit back, relax, and enjoy some good college basketball when things settle down after NSD. In the aftermath of Michigan’s win over Tulsa and loss to Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament, here are some thoughts from a football coach on Michigan basketball.
G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
I was thoroughly impressed with Abdur-Rahkman down the stretch. He has been a pleasant surprise after not doing much in 2014-2015. MAAR is the one guy on the team who can attack the basket in the half-court and make things happen. Add in the fact that he doesn’t mind getting dirty and making hustle plays, and I might even suggest that he was Michigan’s best player at the end of the year. If not the best, then he was at least the most consistent. He averaged 13.6 points/game in Michigan’s final nine contests after only topping that average once in the first fourteen games of the season. He’s not a future NBA star because he’s not particularly quick or explosive, but he’s on par with some of the guys who were the team’s stars in Michigan’s lean years.
G Spike Albrecht
Albrecht was one of two seniors for Michigan this season, but hip problems – for which he had surgery last summer – derailed his season. It was announced at one point that he wouldn’t continue his basketball career at Michigan, but others have suggested recently that he could use this season as a redshirt year to return in 2016-2017. If he does come back, he would be a great backup point guard to Derrick Walton, and Michigan’s offense has enough wiggle room to allow Walton, Albrecht, and incoming freshman Xavier Simpson all to get minutes. (It would also hopefully ensure that Andrew Dakich doesn’t have to play a crunch-time role, which would be great.)
F Kam Chatman
It was fun to see Chatman hit the three-pointer to win the Indiana game, and not only because it was a win for Michigan. Chatman was about the last person I would expect to hit a dagger like that, but he pulled it off. You can see his talent, but he needs to get stronger. He’s also one of those kids who would benefit from an influx of confidence, and maybe the finish to his season would help him get there. It would be excellent if he could develop as an option at the four, so Zak Irvin doesn’t have to play out of position. Michigan could use his presence in the frontcourt not only next year, but in 2017-2018 after Michigan has lost Albrecht, Irvin, Derrick Walton, and maybe Mark Donnal.
Hit the jump for a rundown of the rest of Michigan’s key players.
G Aubrey Dawkins
Dawkins shot the ball well from three-point range (44%), but I was very disappointed in his instincts for the game. It’s surprising to me that he doesn’t show a good feel for handling the ball, rebounding, defensive awareness, etc. He’s also an outstanding athlete who seemed to lose some confidence late in the season after missing some easy breakaway dunks. He needs to get that confidence back, and going into his third season, being a defensive liability should no longer be an issue.
F Mark Donnal
A lot of blame for last night’s loss to Notre Dame was placed on the shoulders of Donnal, who shot just 44% (7 points, 3 rebounds, 1 block, 1 asssist in 29 minutes). He did not have a good game, and 44% is a poor percentage for a big. However, I thought Donnal looked significantly improved from his 2014-2015 season. He was stronger and much more confident this season, and he shot 58% on the year. Michigan classified him as a junior this year despite him technically redshirting as a freshman in 2013-2014, and maybe that spurred some improvement. If we look at the way Michigan’s fives have improved over the past several years, Jordan Morgan turned into a very good player, Jon Horford played significant time at Florida after transferring, and Max Bielfeldt became the Big Ten’s Sixth Man of the Year after transferring to Indiana. I think Donnal has some good basketball ahead of him, and it would be a mistake to give up on him too early.
C Ricky Doyle
Doyle seems like a center who doesn’t really fit John Beilein’s offense, so he’s a bit of a square peg in a round hole. He does make his shots (64% on the year), but he doesn’t have great hands and can’t handle the ball in the high post. It’s good to have him on the team to match up against more traditional centers.
G/F Zak Irvin
Irvin came in with a lot of hype a few years ago, but I liked him more when he was a spot-up shooter off the bench a few years ago. He hasn’t developed much in the way of a handle or playmaking skills, and Michigan has tried to make him something he’s not. That’s by necessity because of injuries and departures, but that doesn’t make it any less true. He shot under 30% on three-pointers this season (he shot 43% as a freshman) and is shooting just over 40% overall in the past two seasons. Michigan is better off with him playing a support role rather than trying to be an alpha male, even though he hit a few clutch shots here and there.
G/F Caris LeVert
It was very disappointing to watch this team not have its best player for long stretches. He averaged over 16 points/game, shot over 50%, hit almost 45% of his threes, distributed the ball well, and played defense. With him on the floor, Michigan is probably still playing in the Tourney. Kind of like Antonio Bass or Matt Gutierrez, it’s a “What could have been?” situation that will never really be answered. Every team suffers injuries, but Michigan needs to look at its training methods and medical staff to figure out why people like LeVert, Albrecht, and Walton have missed chunks of the past two seasons with lower body injuries.
G/F Duncan Robinson
Robinson was a welcome addition to the team this season after transferring from Division III Williams College. He’s a great shooter, and he helped pick up the scoring slack without LeVert on the floor. Robinson needs to understand who he is and not try to do too much. People like to compare him to Nik Stauskas because of his three-point shooting prowess, but Robinson can’t handle the ball as well and needs to make better decisions. He does not do a good job of throwing entry passes and needed to keep the ball on the perimeter rather than trying to be a playmaker.
C Moritz Wagner
Wagner was another late-season surprise. His confidence seemed to grow late in the year, and his defense and rebounding were much needed. He made some silly mistakes handling the ball, fouling, etc. that will be fixed with maturity. His body needs to mature, as well, but I think Wagner should eat into Ricky Doyle’s minutes next season. Michigan has always seemed thin at the five spot under John Beilein, and while no one is clearly destined to be a star, right now the Wolverines have three capable players there for 2016-2017, even before the incoming freshmen arrive.
G Derrick Walton
Walton is a good all-around point guard in the Big Ten. He can’t take over a game like a Trey Burke, but he’s a good defender who can be physical and can stay in front of opposing guards. He also plays passing lanes well, can hit the three, and takes care of the ball. He’s not a difference-maker as a creator in the half-court, which is a role that Abdur-Rahkman handles pretty well. He did a good job handling the ball against Notre Dame, but in the prior couple of games, he uncharacteristically made some very bad turnovers. With a few good point guards graduating or potentially leaving for the NBA, Walton might be near the top of the conference at his position next year.
What do you think about the team next year? Who will be Michigan’s star player with LeVert gone? Will Michigan make the Tournament again?
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Like the bball discussion now. You are a man of many talents.
You are a little too positive, but I imagine as a coach you have learned how to find something to work with.
I agree with most of your assessments. However, I was a little more disappointed in Walton than you. He is a solid PG, but given How Beilein’s system is set up to favor point guards he should be better. His inability to create and finish is killing this team, that has been a strength of Morris and Burke before him. I can see him losing a lot of playing time next year if Albrecht comes back and Simpson is decent.
Chatman is done,or should be. It will be his third year and he is clearly over matched in the games. Loved the 3 against IU, but he too can’t create his own shot and is not athletic enough for his size. If he is not able to consistently hit 3’s and rebound above his weight you can’t put him out there in this offense.
Donnal is so disappointing in one huge area, 3 point shooting. During the ND game, they did not even guard him on the screen above the arc. He did not even turn his back to look at the basket. He can’t drive to the hoop. He is Jordan morgan without the great finishing and defense. That being said he belongs on the team as a matchup problem. He is solid, but not a starting big ten 5 unless he develops a 3. It will be his 4th year. He is what he is.
Doyle is such a disappointment. I think you summed him up perfectly. He is overmatched athletically.
To me Wagner is the key along with Simpson. If Wagner can progress, M has a legitimate 5 and Simpson should be able to create and score off the drive. Both those can open up Robinson and Irvin for 3 balls.
A final thought, curious on your thoughts of the scholly situation. Remember the grief many fans had on Harbaugh and his “shady” tactics about oversigning and having to “cut” players.
What is Beilein going to do? Maybe Davis is prep school bound but if not, wonder if the holier than thou fans will rain on his parade?
I do not believe Beilein is on the hot seat this year, but if MSU smokes us again and we barely get into the tourney or miss it. He is after next year and should be. He is a great coach, but his recruiting misses/philsophy have to change.
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I think the reason I’m fairly “positive” is because I think Michigan has a good mix of parts, and I think any team is going to struggle when they lose their best player (LeVert) and a talented senior (Albrecht) to injury. You have three-point shooters, size, athletic guys coming off the bench, etc.
The thing this team really lacks going into next year is an alpha male. LeVert was supposed to be it – a guy who could get to the rim and/or create his shot when Michigan needed a basket. Trey Burke was that. Darius Morris had some of that in him. Stauskas had that attitude and ability, too.
I guess I have a higher opinion of Donnal and others, too, because Donnal was terrible last year and was sometimes very effective this season. I think he took some huge strides, and I hope that continues into next year. I also saw LeVert develop from being mostly a liability as a true freshman to being a star the last couple seasons. So I still have some hopes for Dawkins, Chatman, etc. because I’ve seen some other guys mature in recent years. I don’t think we’ll be in the national championship game next year, but it still should be a pretty good team.
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I’m not sure Donnal was ever “very effective” in any game as a whole, at least not compared to lots of other bigs I saw. Yes, in some cases when he was wide open under the basket with the ball, he was “very effective” at making the layup, but sometimes not even that. I hope Donnal can be a halfway decent backup at the 5 next year, but I think that’s his ceiling. He has poor hands and limited athleticism.
Dawkins, yes…still some hopes, at the very least as a quality backup who can shoot the three. He’s done far better than Chatman both years. Chatman, no. Who else on a Beilein team have you seen do so poorly his first two years and then become a quality contributor as a junior and senior? I certainly can’t think of anyone.
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Donnal had very good games against Maryland a couple weeks ago and against Illinois (25 and 26 points), along with a couple other solid efforts.
I haven’t seen anyone do as poorly as Chatman in his first two years and then become a quality contributor at Michigan, but LeVert was bad as a freshman before improving significantly. Max Bielfeldt was pretty bad until 2014-2015, then became Sixth Man of the Year at Indiana this past season. I’m not saying I expect it from Chatman, but I’m not ruling it out.
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No, LeVert was not “bad” as a freshman, especially not for a recruit that no major program wanted. He didn’t get tons of playing time because of the guys ahead of him, but the coaches originally were going to redshirt him, and he was too good to keep off the floor. He showed plenty of promise, and broke out huge his sophomore year. Not so Chatman.
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LeVert shot a shade over 30% from the floor and hit 50% of his free throws. For those things and other reasons, I’ll agree to disagree.
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Donnal and Bielfeldt and Horford were all unplayable as sophomores (red-shirt freshman). Chatman’s been forced into action early in his career, but has shown flashes repeatedly. His ceiling is limited (at Michigan) becuase he didn’t red-shirt, but considering his age (he’s almost 2 years younger than classmate MAAR) and where he comes from (tiny HS in Oregon) it makes sense that he would take longer to develop. People should not be giving up on him.
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Great points Thunder. I don’t think LeVert was a liability as a freshman, but they did limit his role. By his sophomore season he was a star, and almost single-handedly kept Michigan competitive with Duke when Stuaskas was shut down. Burke and Stauskas weren’t what they became their sophomore years as freshman either.
People ignore the fact that Chatman came from a tiny HS in Oregon. He was always going to be raw and should have red-shirted.
It’s instructive to remember the improve that Tim Hardaway had from his sophomore to Junior year, and how Stu Douglass embraced his role and strengths/weaknesses for his senior year. This is what Beilein has done year in and year out — make his players better.
I think people are being irrationally skeptical with Beilein. Spoiled by the team success and not fully considering how much bad luck in terms of injury and attrition MIchigan has had the last 2 years.
If you think about the roster that Michigan COULD have had this year (Walton-Albrecht-Stauskas-LeVert-Irvin-G.Robinson-McGary all upperclassmen) vs what they actually had, it’s highly impressive that this team made the tournament.
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Agree about MAAR. He was really the only returnee who was a pleasant surprise. He definitely stepped his game up over last year, but he is still more the type of guy that I would want to see as the first guard off the bench.
As far as Spike, on the one hand, I would love for him to get another year, but we’d have to show two other guys the door (not that we shouldn’t) to make room for him, and if he came back, where are we going to find minutes for three pure point guards and MAAR (who is about half a point guard)? We’d have to play two of Walton, Albrecht and Simpson at the same time far too often.
Kam (see above) needs to be gently eased towards another program. The game-winner against IU notwithstanding, he will never be a meaningful contributor in this program, and will just be taking up roster space for the next two years. He has had ample opportunity to prove himself and earn minutes the last two years, and showed basically nothing this season. If a guy with his credentials isn’t showing up by the end of year 2, he never will.
Dawkins is worth keeping around, but was definitely a disappointment. With his athleticism, I expected to see him really step up his game this season, but he pretty much stayed where he was.
Donnal definitely did better than expected this season, but that was unfortunately balanced out by Doyle doing worse. Donnal is still painful to watch and blows far too many easy baskets because of poor hands and limited athleticism. He is no better than a backup level big at this level, and if he’s still our best big next year, we’re in serious trouble. Doyle should be allowed on the floor next year only in the direst emergencies. And given that, Wilson should also be encouraged to see other opportunities.
Agree about Irvin..he is not the guy you want as your go-to. That being said, I think he’s capable of better than he showed this year, and I could never get over the feeling that he was never completely healthy. We definitely need him to step things up next year.
LeVert-agree…injuries happen, but after three years of critical losses, it’s hard not to think that this isn’t just a streak of bad luck.
Robinson was the other pleasant surprise on the team. His contribution was everything we could have expected, and he did more than just shoot. Nevertheless, his 3-point shooting was a bit of a disappointment once we got to conference play. He needs to do better next year. It would be nice if he could contribute at the 2 next year (where we’ll be thin), but not sure he has the handle.
Wagner needs to completely devour and digest Doyle’s minutes next year. As we saw all year and as was painfully obvious against ND, not having even one starting caliber big man costs us dearly. Wagner and Teske are our only real hopes for that next season. Not sure if he has it in him, and his physicality is a question, but he showed some real flashes of athleticism, and more defensive ability than any other big on the team. Keep your fingers crossed.
Walton shouldered a big burden fairly well this year, but his FG shooting was poor, and he had some really down games on offense. I think he just tired out from having to play so much with Albrecht and LeVert unavailable. He averaged over 36 minutes a game in Big Ten play, which is too much for him. With Simpson here next year, hopefully he can stay at more like 30-33, and I think his game will be better for it.
We need three things to happen in 16-17 to improve on this year:
1. Stay healthy, obviously. No significant injuries to key players.
2. Someone has to emerge as at least a passable starting caliber big man. We had no big on the roster this year who was any better than a backup, and even at that, they were marginal. Wagner and Teske are the likeliest candidates, IMO, but still uncertain.
3. The gap at the 2 has to be filled somehow. We have no one on the roster right now who is an obvious candidate to fill the role of a LeVert or a Stauskas, and that is a major weakness for a Beilein team. Unless Ibi Watson steps right in as a starter, I have a feeling we’re going to basically be playing two point guards a lot, and that’s not a winning combination with our weakness in the front court.
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Hot Takes:
MAAR is likable, fun, and does one thing very well – drive to the basket. He carried the M offense on his back at times when no one else could create anything. BUT – He is wildly overrated by Michigan fans, who ignore that he is a one-dimensional player (same goes for Robinson too).
MAAR is worthless off the ball because he lacks an outside shot and isn’t a reliable finisher off passes. He allows defenses to sag off of him because they don’t have to respect his jumper. He doesn’t pass well or create offense for his teammates. He made great strides in both outside shooting and passing this year and (most important of all) he lowered his turnover rate. But he’s still a limited player who needs to be the de facto point guard to have value.
The reality is that MAAR is a big reason why Michigan has been less successful the last two years than they could have been. With LeVert, MAAR would have had a pretty small role. Next year, with Simpson and Watson potentially offering a broader skillset, MAAR’s role may not be as big as it was this year.
Albrecht ain’t coming back. Michigan has 2 PGs already projected on scholarship, and adding a 3rd doesn’t make sense. As you saw with Beilfeldt, Beilein will drop a more immediately useful player for the sake of long-term development. It would be a slap in the face to Simpson to have Spike back.
Chatman – it’s been the case the last 2 years that Michigan basketball is best served by having Chatman as the starting 4, but he simply hasn’t been up to the task. Shame he couldn’t have red-shirted, because I agree that you can see his talent. You can also see how far he has to go to unleash it on a consistent basis.
Dawkins needs to improve exactly one thing – defense. You can’t be a 3&D player without playing defense. Like Chatman, he has obvious talent and you just need to see the consistency and confidence come together. On the bright side – 2 seasons left to do it.
Donnal – you make some very good points and patience is warranted given how dramatically he improved from last year, but I don’t think he’s ever going to be physically capable of starting against legit opponents. Like Bielfeldt, he’s best served as a change-of-pace backup from a legit 5-man. Hopefully Teske or Davis offer that (or Doyle makes a leap forward.)
Doyle fit’s Beilein’s offense pretty well. People knocked Morgan’s hands for a while too and it’s a concern with Doyle but wasn’t nearly as bad last year. Patience here is warranted too. He could make the same leap other Beilein bigs have. Physically, he’s capable of screening very well on offense and he is mobile enough to role and finish. His low-post game is an asset too, and that can come in handy at times when the offense breaks down. He’s the only center Michigan has and should be projected to start next year IMO.
Irvin – couldn’t disagree more about him not developing. He really was just-a-shooter his freshman year and has taken massive strides forward in ball-handling and developing a quality mid-range game, and on defense. Is he a Stauskas/Burke type player who you want to run the core PNR offense? No. He is better off the ball than on it, but I think he can be an excellent as the second option as LeVert and Hardaway have been in support of Stuaskas and Burke respectively. He is our best player. People should stop bitching about him, seriously. He did shoot very poorly against Notre Dame, it happens sometimes.
Irvin 2 – Anyone worrying about his 3 point shot should not. He was our best 3 point shooter in Big 10 play (yes, better than Robinson). He was an elite shooter when he didn’t have to do more (freshman year). The bad back, having to play such a big role on offense, AND having to do the Novak-thing of guarding opposing 4s is a lot to put on one guy. It’s no surprise that his 3 point efficiency suffered as a result. Michigan just needs to get people around him who can support what he does well, instead of asking him to run the offense and bang with Caleb Swanigen.
LeVert is Michigan’s best NBA prospect since Jamal Crawford. He’s Tim Hardaway with more length. Nik Stauskas with more athleticism. Manny Harris with a jumper. I can’t wait for the Spurs to grab him late in the Round 1 and turn him into a high-caliber NBA player. The guy is long, talented, versatile, and especially once he bulks up a bit, is just loaded with potential (which is what the NBA drafts on).
Robinson is just a shooter. He’s Stauskas or better as a pure shooter but he does nothing else well. His athleticism is a liability not only on defense, but on offense – where his lack of lift gets a lot of his shots blocked around the basket. He’s a very valuable player because of the spacing he gives everyone else (unlike MAAR he can play with anyone). What he needs to learn to do is pump fake, take one dribble in, and then hit open jumpers and/or lean into contact to draw fouls. I don’t think he’s every going to be a big threat to take it to the rim or pass to open opponents. He just needs to refine his offense so people can’t cheat so hard on 3s.
Wagner is loaded with potential. Like MAAR, he’s very fun to watch. His energy is infectious. His defense is pretty bad and he is physically limited by a lack of strength, but at least he is feisty enough to get some blocks. The issue is that Michigan will have up to 5 other centers next year and what they need most from the position is defense. It’ll be interesting if he elects to come back next year or heads back to Europe. I really hope he does come back.
Walton can’t take over games? Did you not watch the first half of Notre Dame? Walton has been absolutely brilliant at times, but, like Irvin, he has struggled in his second season of Big Ten play with a bigger role. Michigan really NEEDS Walton to become the alpha-dog and follow in the Morris/Burke/Stauskas lineage because I don’t think MAAR or Irvin have that skillset in them. Having Simpson around should push Walton to be better next year and hopefully more of his shots start falling. I have high hopes for a big senior year.
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Abdur-Rahkman shot 37% from three, which is about 7 percentage points better than Irvin. It seems odd that you would denigrate MAAR for his outside shot and then say that Irvin just had a bad day against Notre Dame. He didn’t just have a bad day. He shot 29.8% from beyond the arc.
Walton can take over some games defensively, with rebounding, etc., but he’s not a volume scorer. The way he plays makes him a supporting character. So no, he’s not a Burke or a Harris, so I don’t see him as a guy who can take over games. He’s capable of playing well for stretches. Good player, not a great one.
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As you know, I’m big on considering context. MAAR shot 31% in conference play (half the season). Like Robinson, his shot stopped falling when the competition got better.
Still a big improvement to get to .365% this year overall, relative to last year’s sub 30% shooting, but it’s still a weakness.
I do think it’s possible he will improve, but he will be 22 next year, so it’s not totally clear that this will ever be an area of strength for him.
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Irvin shot 38% from 3 in the Big Ten this year, on high volume. He shot 43% from 3 as a just-a-shooter freshman. He shot 36% from 3 last year.
Due to the back, he didn’t get a chance to inflate his stats in the easy non-conference Michigan had.
Irvin’s an excellent shooter. If he doesn’t shoot over 37% from 3 next year I’ll be shocked. I expect him to be 40% or better.
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Irvin was 1/9 from three against Notre Dame. 1/7 against Purdue, 1/4 against Indiana, 1/6 against Iowa, 0/3 against Northwestern, 1/5 against Maryland, etc. He had his fair share of poor shooting performances down the stretch. He also simply didn’t shoot very well down the stretch, whether it was from two or from three. Regardless of the reasons (his bad back, him playing the four, etc.), he didn’t do so hot. Also…prepare to be shocked, because he hasn’t hit 37% of his threes since he was a freshman.
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Shooters have good games and bad games. True for Robinson as it was for Stauskas, Hardaway, Albrecht, etc.
Context matters. I think if you asked Stauskas to defend 4s and took away the amazing supporting cast he had, he wouldn’t have shot so well from 3.
Irvin’s been tasked with a harder job than anything Burke, Stauskas ever had to deal with. He has very little help, while they were surrounded by vets and NBA-caliber talent.
He’s a good shooter. He’s shown that repeatedly, even this year once he healed from the back. Next year, he may still not have NBA-caliber talent around him, but he’ll have a lot of experience and more talent, which should make world of difference.
Too bad we can’t bet on it.
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Well, I don’t think he’s Burke or Stauskas either. But you can “take over games” without being a volume scorer. That’s what Chris Paul, Tony Parker, and a lot of other elite PGs do.
Walton’s had some great stretches. Michigan doesn’t need him to play every game like that, but they need him to step up when the offense bogs down.
He’s been a great complementary player (as Morris, Burke, and Stauskas were at first) and he didn’t step up to that same level as a Junior – so he’s probably not going to be that kind of All-Conference guy. But I don’t think he has to be for Michigan to be very good. What we need is for him to step up and play well when the chips are down. His jumper needs to not disappear completely, as it did do often this year. He needs to convert better at the basket (either by making shots are getting better at drawing fouls).
In an ideal world, Walton is running the offense, flanked by Robinson, Irvin, a 4-man who can shoot and defend (Dawkins or Chatman hopefully, maybe Wagner even) and a 5-man who can consistently execute the screen-and-roll game without being a defensive liability.
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I have no keen insight other than my opinion, but you are really going all hopeand change. Chatman has had two years plus he is not athletic at all, great kid but he needs to go. Maar is a plus defender, a good 3 point shooter and also only a sophomore. Just because he is 22 does not mean he can develop his mental game.
Irvin is a very solid player and has got the shooters mentality. He can be all big ten, but he is what he is, which a good college player with absolutely no chance in the nba.Walton is great rebounder and ball handler. He is streaky at 3 shooter and terrible creator. He will lose significant pt if Simpson is half of Burke.once again no nba potential.
Did you watch the games this year? Dawkin is a terrible defender and he is 6’4″. I hope he never sees the 4.
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I believe that 80% of development happens as the result of putting in work in the gym/on the practice field and gaining perspective/attitude off the court. So, I don’t change my perspective on guys just because they don’t redshirt.
Chatman is 19. When MAAR was 19 he hadn’t played a college game yet.
He is clearly very athletic and skilled for his size. That’s why he was a top 50 recruit. He’s been mostly awful in UM uniform but we saw brief flashes last year and more flashes this year. There’s plenty of room to improve.
Time (eligibility) is starting to run out for Chatman, but he can still be a huge asset to Michigan if he gets a little more comfortable, plays a little tougher, and gains some consistency.
MAAR’s obviously a far better player than Chatman right now, and probably will be 2 years from now. But what Chatman offers (assuming he approaches his potential) can fit beside a lot of players and what MAAR offers is more redundant with what other people have to offer.
MAAR could be the best player on the team if he shoots 37-39% from 3 all year and gets his A/TO ratio up. It’s certainly possible, but most people don’t improve that much by the time they are 22. That’s why the NBA is far more likely to draft a 19 year old freshman than a 22 year old senior. Upside is a function of age, not what HS class you graduated with.
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If you think MAAR can improve, I don’t know why you wouldn’t think that Irvin and Walton can too. Irvin and MAAR are the same age. Walton is younger.
Dawins is 6’6 and plays bigger due to his athleticism. He played a lot of 4 last year. He is awful defensively – so is Robinson, so was Spike, so was Stauskas. The difference is he has the athleticism that hypothetically makes him a candidate to improve. I don’t know if he will.
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Next Year:
I think we contend for the Big 10 title. Indiana will still be tough, pending NBA attrition. MSU loses a lot of veterans but will also be very good again. Ohio State and Wisconsin, like Michigan, will return everyone and be much improved. Maryland – it depends on what Stone and Trimble do. Nobody else, including Purdue, scares me.
I believe Irvin and Walton will look much better, embracing their senior seasons and leadership roles.
I think adding Simpson will be a HUGE benefit next year. Against Notre Dame, Michigan essentially had no guard depth and Simpson should address that immediately.
I think adding Teske could be HUGE as well. It may not pay off right away (freshman Cs are rarely effective for Beilein) but in the long-run he’s exactly the sort of shot-blocker that Beilein SHOULD be recruiting.
I think that Doyle is a key player in this as well. If he doesn’t make leap forward Michigan will continue doing the undersized center thing, which doesn’t work real well unless that guy is playing with hustle and smarts like Jordan Morgan.
I think that between Dawkins, Chatman, Wagner and MAAR – one of these guys is going to make a big leap forward to emerge as a legitimate asset in the rotation and earn consistent starter minutes.
Michigan will be very good next year. Do not sleep on Irvin or Walton making a leap forward to all-conference caliber. Do not sleep on some of our freshman making immediate contributions. Do not sleep on the ability of Beilein to develop guards and wings either – as these young guys gain experience you’ll see some big improvements.
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No way we compete for the Big Ten title next year without a lot of things coming together, first and foremost being an actual starting caliber big man. Without that, we are going to lose a lot more than we win against teams with size and interior defense. We also have no one with the shooting ability and the handle to play the off guard effectively, and no one athletic enough to be the 4 we need in a one big man offense. Defense I’ve given up worrying about…we’re not going have it regardless, so we’ll just have to hope to work around it.
What’s our projected starting lineup next year? Walton, MAAR, Robinson, Irvin, Donnal. That’s not even close to Big Ten title material. Of returning backups, only Dawkins has shown anything significant. Doyle, Wilson, Chatman are very limited. Maybe Wagner will step up, but that’s far from certain. Simpson, Watson and Teske may contribute, but none of them are talented enough on paper that you can project them pushing out an experienced starter.
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All legitimate questions WCB.
Center: Have to believe in Beilein’s development skills here given his track record of improvement with guys like Graham Brown, Max Bielfeldt, Jon Horford, Jordan Morgan, and this year Donnal. None of the above guys were great players, but if he can take 2 and 3 star guys like that and consistently turn them into legitimate Big 10 players, then you should believe that between Doyle, Teske, Wagner, Davis, Wilson, and Donnal there should be at least one, if not two quality bigs next year.
4: Irvin is one of the better 4s we’ve ever had. With some help next year he could be even better than GR3. Athleticism’s not the problem here. Chatman and Dawkins offer other athletic options, before you dip into potential conversions from the 5.
Simpson is a top 50 player and absolutely capable of pushing MAAR or Robinson out of the lineup. He’s higher rated than Burke, Stauskas, Morris and other people who have come in as freshman and started.
But yeah, that 5 you named absolutely is good enough to win the Big Ten if things go right.
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Also worth considering that this team was a made 3 from tying this game, or the charge call on Wagner going as an and-one, as it should have, instead. That’s how close Michigan was to possibly beating ND and facing a 14-seed for a chance to play in the sweet 16.
And yeah, they’re a missed Chatman 3 away from not being in the tournament at all, that’s sports, but Michigan getting to that level with all the bad luck and injuries they’ve had the last 2 years is telling.
Beilein’s a wizard. Anyone who forgot that, and what it means for improvement from the guys he coaches, is missing the big picture. Michigan will be much better next year.
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How bout that Lanky, eh?
All positive about the future and stuff.
You go Lanky, I’m with you 100% on this one.
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Beilein has a track record of player development and team production. Lot of haters out there with short memories who are letting the struggles of last year, bad luck, and unreasonable expectations lead them to being negative. The silver lining is that they will be happy next year when this team is improved again.
I was negative with Hoke, because Hoke kept making things worse and didn’t have the track record to believe he would make things better. All of it was hope, and it wasn’t hope grounded in evidence.
With Harbaugh and Beilein I see no reason for negativity, except when people get really crazy with expectations. With the football team right now, it’s hard to put a cap on the expectations. The basketball team’s probably not contending for a national title next year, but you never know. Nobody expected Morris or Burke or Stuaskas to blow up like they did. Nobody expected LeVert or Albrecht or Morgan to be as good as they were. I don’t know who is going to blow way past reasonable expectations next year, but I’m pretty sure that between Walton, Irvin, Dawkins, Simpson, Wagner, Teske, Doyle, Chatman, Wilson, somebody will.
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