Preview: Michigan vs. Texas

RUSH OFFENSE vs. TEXAS RUSH DEFENSE
After one week of the 2024 season, Michigan is tied for #79 in yards per game (148.0) and #72 in yards per carry (4.35). Kalel Mullings kinda sorta seemed to take the lead running back role with 15 carries for 92 yards against Fresno State, passing up #1 RB Donovan Edwards (11 carries, 27 yards) in both attempts and yards. Michigan finished #22 in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus, but there were definitely some struggles. New LG Josh Priebe scored the highest in run blocking among offensive linemen (69.9) while new starting center Dominick Giudice was the lowest graded run blocker on the entire team (57.4). On the Texas side, fifth year senior DT Vernon Broughton (6’4″, 305) graded out the highest among defenders against Colorado State with a grade of 89.8, but he was just a 56.8 against the run and made 2 tackles. Junior nickel Jaylon Guilbeau (6’0″, 190) led the team with 8 tackles, followed by sophomore LB Anthony Hill, Jr. (6’3″, 235) with 5 stops. Texas allowed 118 yards on the ground (#66 in the country) and ranked #70 in yards allowed per carry (3.69). I think Michigan will be able to run the ball, but the speed and size on defense is going to limit big plays.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. TEXAS PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is currently #120 in passing, almost matching their total yards through the air from week one. Redshirt junior walk-on Davis Warren threw for 118 yards on 15/25 passing, and redshirt sophomore Alex Orji – used essentially as a Wildcat QB – completed 1/2 throws for a 3-yard touchdown to RB Donovan Edwards. Altogether, Michigan’s 4.5 yards per attempt ties them for #125 and they’re #100 in passing efficiency. Junior TE Colston Loveland (8 catches, 87 yards, 1 touchdown) was the star of the passing game, and by that I mean he was the only other relevant pass catcher during week one. Unless Michigan’s play designs improve or the running game improves the play action, the receivers are going to have a difficult time separating from Texas’s defensive backs. Giudice was the top pass blocker (82.4) while his backup, Greg Crippen, got a paltry 25.9 for pass blocking last week. Defensively, the Longhorns lost a lot last year, including two very good defensive tackles, and they’re starting four transfers on D. Nobody recorded a sack last week despite winning 52-0. Broughton got the best pass rush grade (93.8), which is pretty darn good for an interior lineman. Senior DE Barryn Sorrell (6’4″, 260) scored a 70.8 and redshirt junior DE Trey Moore (6’3″, 245) notched a 70.7. Former Michigan commit Ethan Burke had 5.5 sacks to lead the team last year, but his 63.5 pass rush grade in week one was just so-so. Overall, Broughton might be one to watch, but he has just 2.5 career sacks and was pretty mediocre prior to this year, so he might not play like that again. Until Davis Warren proves otherwise, I think this is going to be a positive matchup for Texas, though.
Advantage: Texas

RUSH DEFENSE vs. TEXAS RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan held a pretty solid team to 9 total rushing yards last week, which ranks #3 behind Kentucky (who held Southern Miss to 5 rushing yards) and Arkansas (who held Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 7 yards). The Wolverines made just 6 tackles for loss; that’s a number they topped seven times in 2023, but they never held a team to 7 rushing yards or fewer. Michigan arguably has the best defensive tackle duo in the country with Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham, who both graded out pretty poorly according to PFF but didn’t let Fresno gain many yards. OLB Josaiah Stewart, DT Rayshaun Benny, and S Makari Paige each notched 5 tackles to lead the team, with Stewart (3.0 tackles for loss) and Benny (2.0 TFLs) leading the way in getting into the backfield. Texas junior LT Kelvin Banks, Jr. (6’4″, 320) is a potential first rounder, but his run blocking grade last week was just 56.3. Overall, it’s a huge offensive line with the lightest player being fifth year senior C Jake Majors (6’3″, 315) and the heaviest being junior RT Cameron Williams (6’5″, 335). The Longhorns did lose a couple of their top runners to injury during fall camp, so the bell cow needs to be RB Jaydon Blue (6’0″, 200), who had 11 carries for 57 yards last week. Last season he ran 65 times for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns as the #3 back. The backup appears to be sophomore Quintrevion Wisner (6’0″, 200). Texas runs a lot of RPOs, which seem to be head coach Steve Sarkisian’s specialty, so redshirt junior QB Quinn Ewers (6’2″, 210) will often pull the ball out of a running back’s belly and throw to a receiver. Because those take time to read, Texas runs the ball laterally quite a bit to prevent linemen from getting downfield, so they’re less of a mauling offensive line than their size would indicate. I’m a little worried about Michigan’s linebackers getting RPOed to death, but if they can hold in coverage long enough for the defensive line to take care of the run, Michigan should be able to tamp things down. I’m less worried about the “R” of RPO and more worried about the “P.”
Advantage: Texas

PASS DEFENSE vs. TEXAS PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #99 in pass defense after giving up 235 yards to Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene. They were better when it comes to passing efficiency defense (#72) and yards per attempt (#79) at 6.5, but it still wasn’t a great game. Stewart made 2 sacks and Benny made 1. Cornerback Will Johnson allowed a couple more catches than most people expected, but he also made up for it with an 86-yard interception return for a touchdown to cap off the scoring. New nickel Zeke Berry made 1 interception in his starting debut, and redshirt freshman CB Jyaire Hill held up pretty well opposite Johnson. Thankfully, Texas lost WR Xavier Worthy to the NFL, and he was replaced by Alabama junior transfer Isaiah Bond (5’11”, 180) and junior Houston transfer Matthew Golden (6’0″, 195), who combined for 8 catches, 111 yards, and 3 touchdown receptions last week. Texas is #21 in passing offense (355 yards last week), #21 in yards per attempt (10.8), and #17 passer rating. Ewers has excellent arm talent and can throw the ball from all angles, but sometimes he has a low release over the line, and someone like DT Kenneth Grant might be able to bat down a ball or two. The backup QB is redshirt freshman Arch Manning (6’4″, 225), who went 5/6 for 95 yards and 1 touchdown.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Texas players recruited by Michigan include: OL Malik Agbo, OL Brandon Baker, RB Jaydon Blue, DE Ethan Burke, OL Hayden Conner, WR Johntay Cook II, OL Daniel Cruz, QB Quinn Ewers, S Xavier Filsaime, DE Justice Finkley, LB David Gbenda, CB Jaylon Guilbeau, S Jordon Johnson-Rubell, WR Parker Livingstone, QB Arch Manning, DT Sydir Mitchell, CB Malik Muhammad, DE Zina Umeozulu, DE Connor Vasek, WR Ryan Wingo
• DE Ethan Burke was committed to Michigan at one time (LINK)
• Texas LB Brady Sarkisian is the son of Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian
• Texas OL Brooks Kieschnick, Jr. is the son of former MLB player Brooks Kieschnick

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…

• On January 1, 2005, Michigan played Texas in the two teams’ only meeting, a 38-37 victory for the Longhorns
• Freshman QB Chad Henne completed 18/34 passes for 227 yards and 4 touchdowns
• WR Braylon Edwards caught 10 passes for 109 yards and 1 touchdown
• LB Prescott Burgess made 1 interception, which he returned for 23 yards
• Texas QB Vince Young completed 16/28 passes for 180 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception while also running 21 times for 192 yards and 4 touchdowns
• Texas K Dusty Mangum hit a 37-yard game-winning field goal in the final seconds

PREDICTION

• Texas 24, Michigan 17

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