Jehu Chesson
Back on September 3, 2015, I posted my predictions for the 2015 season (LINK). As I do each year, I look here at how badly I missed.
LEADING RUSHER
My prediction: De’Veon Smith, 700 yards
Actual: De’Veon Smith, 753 yards
Thoughts: Hooray! Well, this is a good start. I was only 53 yards off on a season total. Not bad.
Hit the jump for more.
LEADING RECEIVER
My prediction: Amara Darboh, 650 yards
Actual: Jehu Chesson, 764 yards
Thoughts: Hmmm…okay. Well, I wasn’t horribly far off in yardage (Darboh had 727 yards), but Chesson came out of nowhere to lead the team. My prediction for the yardage total was pretty accurate for Michigan’s #3 receiver, tight end Jake Butt.
LEADING TACKLER
My prediction: Joe Bolden, 100 tackles
Actual: Joe Bolden, 83 tackles
Thoughts: The inside linebackers didn’t make as many tackles as I thought. That’s partly because the defensive line was excellent, and it’s partly because the linebackers just weren’t that great.
LEADING SACKER
My prediction: Mario Ojemudia, 5 sacks
Actual: Willie Henry and Chris Wormley (tie), 6.5 sacks
Thoughts: Ojemudia (2 sacks) only played in five games before tearing his Achilles, but he was already behind in the sack race. He could have feasibly taken the lead in the category, but Henry and Wormley won out here.
LEADING INTERCEPTOR
My prediction: Jourdan Lewis, 3 interceptions
Actual: Jeremy Clark, 3 interceptions
Thoughts: I got the number right, but obviously not the player. Clark was a pleasant surprise this year with his 3 picks. Lewis was an All-American, but he only made 2 picks.
ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
My prediction: Jake Butt
Actual: Jake Butt, Jourdan Lewis
Thoughts: Both of these guys were deserving.
LEADING SCORER
My prediction: Ty Isaac
Actual: Jehu Chesson
Thoughts: It’s not often that wide receivers seem to lead the team in scoring, because passing touchdowns tend to get spread around, while rushing touchdowns seem to mostly end up going to one guy. But Chesson won the scoring contest, and it wasn’t even close. He scored 12 touchdowns (9 receiving, 2 rushing, 1 kickoff return), while De’Veon Smith was next closest (6 rushing touchdowns, 1 receiving, and a 2-point conversion). Meanwhile, Isaac score 1 touchdown on a 76-yard run against UNLV and was relegated to the bench for most of the second half of the year.
BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
My prediction: Drake Harris
Actual: Jehu Chesson
Thoughts: Harris got a lot of off-season hype, and not an ounce of it came true. He made 6 catches for 39 yards on the year. Meanwhile, Jehu Chesson had 375 receiving yards between 2013 and 2014, and he more than doubled that total this season. Toss in those 12 touchdowns, and I don’t think there’s any question that he was the breakout star on offense. He finished the year with 50 catches for 764 yards and 9 touchdowns; 8 carries for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns; and 4 kickoff returns for 166 yards and 1 touchdown.
BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
My prediction: Jabrill Peppers
Actual: Chris Wormley? Jabrill Peppers? Somebody else?
Thoughts: I’m willing to be convinced on this one. Peppers had a very good year (45 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 10 pass breakups), but he was a liability in coverage at times. He got a little bump in the hype department by playing offensive and special teams, but his defensive season was just good. Meanwhile, Chris Wormley went from an adequate backup to unblockable (at times) and ended the year with 43 tackles, 14.5 tackles for loss, and 6.5 sacks. He even sniffed around leaving early for the NFL. I think both these guys have better arguments than several other guys who showed marked improvement (Ryan Glasgow, Jeremy Clark, Jourdan Lewis, etc.), but again, I can be convinced.
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
My prediction: Derrick Green
Actual: I don’t know.
Thoughts: This depends entirely on perspective, I guess. Green is in the running. He had 47 carries for 157 yards (3.3 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns before disappearing, and things got bad enough that it sounds like he won’t return next year. You could make an argument for Ty Isaac, though his on-field production when he was given a chance was pretty good (30 carries, 205 yards, 6.8 yards/carry, 1 TD). Some people might also want to argue for Kyle Kalis, I guess, who struggled more than a third-year starter should and had a pretty bad game against Florida.
MOST DISAPPOINT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
My prediction: Taco Charlton
Actual: Joe Bolden
Thoughts: Charlton actually stepped up this year with 30 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks. He showed more strength and hustle than in previous years, and it paid off. Bolden, while he led the team in tackles, missed way too many opportunities to make plays. I would think that a senior captain would have some sort of signature play to highlight his season or his career, but Bolden never really flashed.
GAME PREDICTIONS
Utah: Win Loss
Oregon State: Win
UNLV: Win
BYU: Loss Win
Maryland: Win
Northwestern: Win
Michigan State: Loss
Minnesota: Win
Rutgers: Win
Indiana: Win
Penn State: Loss Win
Ohio State: Loss
I predicted an 8-4 regular season, and Michigan finished 9-3.
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A couple of thoughts:
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Oops – accidental post on that one. A couple of thoughts:
— Special Teams didn’t get a mention in your post, but there were so many break out players there that I wanted to bring it up. Kenny Allen went from huge unknown to very solid kicker (remember when Baxter wouldn’t even let the kickers do anything in the Spring game?). Blake O’Niel had a couple of bad moments, but overall was a huge asset. Our KO and Punt returns were also very strong.
— Chesson is the obvious breakout star on Offense along with Ruddock, but let’s not forget the huge progress made by AJ Williams. He didn’t light up the stat sheet, but the fact that he actually appeared on the stat sheet and was something far from a liability shows how amazing his progress was. He was a strong blocker, ran solid routes, and made a few catches.
— I think Wormley has to be the breakout star on the defense. Everyone was nervous about him before the season and hoped he could just be replacement-level in his play. Instead he turned in a very good season. The combination of Clark and Stribling deserves mention here too since most assumed Wayne Lyons would start and feared the idea of Clark at CB entirely. Stribling/Clark were not perfect (as you consistently point out), but as #2/#3 corners on a good defense they were very solid after barely playing before.
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Wormley is the breakout star to me too. Clark was the biggest surprise but he had started before, is a 4th year player, and he still rotated with Stribling for most of the year and was at times picked on by opponents repeatedly. Wormley was a stud though and made himself a lot of NFL money if he can repeat or improve on his performance.
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Can’t say that anyone on the defense really disappointed me, mainly because I had already expended all of my disappointment about the linebackers last year. Clark was probably the biggest pleasant surprise…he went from not doing much at all to being a real quality player. On offense, Green and Isaac tie for first (again, with disappointment for Kalis and Co. already exhausted). Harris was a disappointment, too, but mainly because I broke my own rule and bought into coaching and practice hype. Probably not fair to have put too much expectation on him this year…but next year, yes..time for him to step up or step aside.
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I do think there were a couple of things affecting Harris beyond his lack of production. First, our offense really only uses 2 WR most of the time and 3 now and then. When you consider how well Darboh and Chesson played, there were few snaps for outside WR. What was surprising was that he barely even saw the field the second half in those few times when a back-up would come in.
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Two wide receivers is one too many, dagnabbit! I want me some “Two tight ends and a balanced line, TB deep and a FB close” … and a lonely flanker split to the wide side of the field, ala 1976. đŸ™‚
I wonder what most accounts for the improvement in Wormley and the DL in general — one year older? Or focus from Mattison alone and not split Mattison/Hoke, with Mattison keeping half an eye on the DC role, and Hoke keeping half an eye on the HC role?
Who would be 2015’s best “off the bench” guy?
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I think Mattison is just a superior coach. It seems to me that wherever he is (as a position coach), that group gets significantly better. He was a linebacker coach last year; Jake Ryan was excellent, and I think Bolden was a little better than this year. This year Mattison moved to the defensive line (replacing Mark Smith), and suddenly Glasgow, Henry, Wormley, etc. are better. It’s probably not too surprising that a guy like him would be an upgrade over someone like Smith.
I would say Maurice Hurst, Jr. and Dymonte Thomas would be the two best guys off the bench.
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This. Mattison is a stud and I really think that, while people appreciated his staying around and taking the demotion from DC, not many people FULLY appreciated how big that was for the team and the program.
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Is “but next year, yes..time for him to step up or step aside” referring to 2016 or 2017? If you’re expecting Harris to light it up in 2016, I think you’re going to be pretty disappointed.
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Yeah, with Chesson and Darboh this year, there weren’t a ton more snaps for wide receivers remaining. Grant Perry seemed to be the guy with the third-most snaps. No wide receivers or tight ends are leaving (except A.J. Williams), so I don’t think Harris will get a ton of opportunities next year, either. Maybe in 2017 when he’s a redshirt junior.
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Definitely room for a 3rd/4th WR to get more action than we saw this year. This year it was just a hodge podge rotation of unexceptional guys (including Harris). It won’t always be that way though.
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Even is Harris comes along great this coming year, with Butt, Darboh, and Chesson, there are only so many passes left to be caught. I think the staff would prefer to run the ball more/more successfully than this year, so there may be less receptions for the team as a whole. I’d be very surprised to see Harris or any other 3rd WR get 20 catches provided those previously mentioned guys are healthy.
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I’m talking about 2016. And while I don’t expect him to grab 50 or 60 catches with Darboh and Chesson still there, he needs to start showing some real playmaking ability and be a viable target. Otherwise he’s going to be passed by and probably not back for a 5th year.
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If Harris gets passed, then that means there’s someone better, which is good for the team. But truthfully, we saw this year how snaps/targets are likely going to be doled out next year – Chesson and Darboh will get the majority, and Michigan will use the tight ends a lot. I would say Perry has already passed Harris, at least when it comes to playing in the slot. So Harris will get the scraps left over, along with Maurice Ways and/or whoever else is deemed worthy. Unless there are long-term injuries, there just isn’t going to be much more available than there was this year. We lose literally no one. I don’t know why you would expect the paradigm to shift.
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Again, not expecting the paradigm to shift for wide receivers in 2016. But someone needs to show that they’re coming along and will be ready to step in as a starter next year, when we’ll have lost probably 75% of our pass catching production. In a way that, say, Maurice Ways or Jaron Dukes did not. Yes, Perry will probably be able to fill in a slot position, but we need a big play, deep threat guy. I’m not expecting lots of passes to go Harris’s way this year, but I want to be able to look at some of the plays he does make and say “this guy’s going to be really good”.
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I thought Ways did a pretty good job of blocking, and that’s how he was used. I don’t think it’s so much of a “Ways and Dukes failed to step up” as it is simply that they weren’t needed/used. Wide receivers not named Chesson/Darboh/Perry caught 12 passes this past season; 1 of those receptions came from Brian Cole (now a safety) and 1 came from Freddy Canteen (now a cornerback). I just don’t think you should get your hopes up to see someone emerge next year. It would be great and everything, but it’s probably unrealistic.
If you go back and look at the #4 receivers for Stanford (in receptions) during Harbaugh’s years, they had 5, 4, and 17 catches from 2008-2010. And when Griff Whalen caught 17 passes, that was partly due to #3 receiver Chris Owusu missing five games due to injury. Lanknows talks about “small sample size” frequently, and 4.5 catches isn’t much of an opportunity to show anything.
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I’m with WCB here, though for me it’s not about Harris specifically. I’d like to see a 3rd WR emerge ahead of the pack. Maybe that’s a guy who gets dumped into the ‘slot’ label (as did primarily outside WR Jeremy Gallon) like Perry or maybe it’s a freshman or maybe it’s Harris.
Sure, yes – our top 3 targets will probably stay the top 3 targets, but there is plenty of room for a 4th WR to emerge as a real threat. Not a catch 50 balls in 2016 threat, but as a “watch out for that guy too” threat. I’d like to see the snaps that got spread between Harris, Ways, Jones, Canteen (pre move to D), and Perry concentrated down to one or two guys who emerge as players. Harris has talent to do it, so if he breaks out then you could see Chesson or Darboh start working out of the slot. It also could be a true freshman since it sounds like we are going to recruit about 10 guys who could play WR.
Or it could be Peppers if Walker emerges as a big play threat at RB.
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I think it’s a pretty sure bet that Peppers is going to stay on defense. I think Perry has already emerged ahead of the pack. He took up the majority of the #3 snaps and caught 14 passes. I don’t think he’ll let that spot go easily unless he gets himself in trouble or gets lazy, and neither of those is likely with a kid like him, from what I gather.
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Between the 1st game and last Perry caught 5 passes for 36 yards total. I don’t think he’s emerged ahead of the pack anymore than DeVeon Smith has emerged as a guy who will run for 100 yards every game or Channing Stribling has emerged as a INT-inducing playmaker. The Florida game is just one game and even the Michigan players said Florida quit in the second half (when Perry got most of his production).
While I agree that Perry may look like he is ahead of the others at the moment (as essentially the ‘starting slot’) there’s a lot of time between now and September and there are a lot of highly ranked freshman coming in. I think Perry is a guy who is reliable and blocks well (especially for a freshman) and that’s earning him snaps, but there are other guys with more talent who could surpass him.
I’m with you re: Peppers on D, but Brian Cook seems to think Peppers is a lock to get more than 10 touches a game on offense so there are some different opinions floating around out there.
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FWIW, I don’t think Peppers will get more than 10 touches a game next year. I think that puts him in danger of getting hurt and worn out. Ten touches per game is a lot. That’s 120 touches throughout a regular season. The only guy to beat that total was De’Veon Smith (who had 180 rushes alone). Meanwhile, Jehu Chesson was the next closest with 62 touches (50 catches, 8 runs, 4 kickoff returns). Peppers had 52 total touches this year, but 25 of them were on special teams, so I doubt he’s going to go from 27 offensive touches to 120+. But we’ll see.
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Also, Perry did not get a ton of production, and he was the “starting slot receiver.” Passing him would presumably not mean that Perry gets benched entirely. I have a hard time imagining him “starting” for a whole year under Harbaugh and then getting roughly zero playing time the next year. He will probably get better. And besides that, even if a freshman is better than Perry, that doesn’t have much to do with Harris, who already played less than Perry on the same squad. I’m not ruling it out entirely, but there’s no reason to expect that much will change next season – same player personnel, same coaching personnel, etc.
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On Peppers: I agree with you. I’d like to see him get about as many snaps as Woodson did, which is probably roughly in line with what we saw in 2015. Maybe have an uptempo run-heavy package installed with him at QB behind 10 blockers. Maybe if you count punt and kick returns you could get close to 10 touches/game but I doubt it.
On Perry: I don’t see any reason a guy can’t get passed by if better players come in. Michigan is bringing a lot of new guys in. There were times, maybe most of the year, where Harris seemed to be ahead of Perry. I don’t have the snap count data to prove anything, but Perry was relegated to a very minor role by a few games into the season and seemed to be behind Canteen for a while. He obviously did re-emerge by November. As for Harris, we all heard the hype late in the Summer and while it didn’t pan out during the season, another year of strength gains and maturity could change the balance. In other words, it was a close battle in 2015 so nothing is settled. A small edge now can be gone in a week. But yeah, I don’t think Perry is going to get 0 snaps either and I don’t think any one individual is more likely than Perry to get more snaps. He should be considered the slot guy until someone else overtakes him. All I’m saying is it should be one of the battles to watch over the offseason because there hasn’t been much if any separation like there has been at say LB, where Gedeon got almost all of the backup snaps.
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Predictions are hard. You fared pretty well.
The run game as a whole was disappointing to me. I didn’t fully appreciate how the scheme change would affect the OL, which finished 107th in the country in Opportunity Rate (i.e., the closest think we have to a run-blocking stat).
Biggest player disappointment: while Harris and his hype deserve mention it is clearly Ty Isaac by a loooong shot. He was hailed as the savior to the run game, even well into mid-season. We already knew he could look good against easy competition from his time at USC. The question was if he could handle a lead back duties and do it against tough competition — he could not. Or, at least, he could not as well as DeVeon Smith.
My predictions must have been in another post because I know I made them on here somewhere.
Biggest thing I was wrong about: Derrick Green leading the RB. I didn’t have much strength behind this and always viewed it as a guess but Green went from a starter under Hoke to a full-on bust under Harbaugh.
Biggest thing I was right about: Ty Isaac. Also Jabrill Peppers, who people like Mgoblog decided to make the most important player on the team — something that was proven wholly untrue against Florida.
I predicted 10-2 in the regular season with losses to Minnesota and OSU. I would have been pretty close had we beaten Utah and closed vs MSU.
Nice post. Not a lot of people own up to their mistakes (which are inevitable when you make predictions like this) as thoughtfully as you did.
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