Tag: 2011 Season Countdown

2011 Countdown: #10 Ryan Van Bergen

Ryan Van Bergen

Name: Ryan Van Bergen
Height: 6’6″
Weight: 288 lbs.
High school: Whitehall High School in Whitehall, MI
Position: Defensive end
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #53
Last year: I ranked Van Bergen #6 and said he would have 55 tackles and 7.5 sacks.  He had 37 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, and 1 pass breakup.

I’ll be honest – I didn’t expect Michigan to run quite so much of the 3-3-5 last season.  I thought it would be run only sometimes, and I assumed the Wolverines would blitz out of it.  Eh . . . not so much.  So for much of the season, Van Bergen was one of three rushers who made valiant but futile efforts to get to the quarterback.  Without another down lineman or blitzers to draw attention away from the starting three, Van Bergen and his cohorts were constantly double-teamed and chipped by running backs.  Production across the whole defensive line was down.  Consider that in 2009, the four defensive linemen averaged 48 tackles and 4.9 sacks.  In 2010 those averages dropped to 37.3 tackles and 3.2 sacks for the trio of Van Bergen, Mike Martin, and Greg Banks.  But hey, at least Michigan’s strong safety had 116 tackles.

Van Bergen ought to see an uptick in his production as a senior this season.  Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison has pronounced that Michigan will blitz, and with four defensive linemen already on the field, we should see Michigan’s sack totals leap significantly.  From 2006-2010, Michigan’s sack totals dropped from 43 to 33 to 29 to 22 to 18.  Even if one discounts the 2006 team that had so many stars (LaMarr Woodley, David Harris, Alan Branch, Shawn Crable, etc.), those totals in 2007 and 2008 are still satisfactory.  But 18? Yikes.  Van Bergen should benefit from the change in defensive philosophy.  While he’ll line up on the strong side and face double-teams from a tackle and tight end on run plays, pass plays ought to give him a little more freedom to get a rush than he had last year.  Combined with more pressure from the backside and some blitzing linebackers, I’m going to predict the exact same thing that I did last year.

Prediction: Starting strongside defensve end; 55 tackles, 7.5 sacks

Poll Results: Patrick Omameh got 43% of the votes for the #10 slot, while Van Bergen got 30%

2011 Countdown: #11 Roy Roundtree

Roy Roundtree

Name: Roy Roundtree
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 177 lbs.
High school: Trotwood-Madison High School in Trotwood, OH
Position: Slot receiver/wide receiver
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #12
Last year: I ranked Roundtree #9 and said he would start at slot receiver, catch 60 passes for 900 yards, and score 8 touchdowns.  He had 72 catches for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns.

Going into last season, I thought Roundtree was going to continue where he left off at the end of 2009, when he turned into Tate Forcier’s favorite target.  And he did.  From his slot receiver position, Roundtree led the team in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns.  While he was wide open fairly often due to quarterback Denard Robinson’s run fakes, the things that made him so effective were his route running and his sneaky quickness.  The kid has been less than 180 pounds for his entire career, but he knows how to get open and he makes people miss after the catch.  Roundtree isn’t a typical Rich Rodriguez slot receiver because he’s not 5’8″ and doesn’t have instantaneous acceleration, but while it looks like he’ll be easy to take down, he now has four receptions of 70+ yards in his career.  For comparison’s sake, consider that Braylon Edwards, Marquise Walker, David Terrell, Derrick Alexander, Desmond Howard, and Anthony Carter had three career receptions of 70+ yards . . . combined.

Now that it’s 2011 and a new offense has come to Ann Arbor, I’m expecting a plateau for Roundtree. The year-long suspension of Darryl Stonum means that Michigan needs Roundtree on the outside, where the mismatches won’t be quite so apparent.  He won’t be able to get open quite so easily against cornerbacks as he was against linebackers and safeties.  Additionally, I don’t think the new offense will be quite so friendly to Denard Robinson, who might struggle with a pro-style offense.  The team will run plenty of spread formations, but unless Roundtree moves into the slot when they go to the spread, the likely beneficiaries will be slot receivers like Martavious Odoms and Jeremy Gallon.

Prediction: Starting wide receiver; 65 receptions, 850 yards, 7 touchdowns

2011 Countdown: #12 Carvin Johnson

Carvin Johnson

Name: Carvin Johnson
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 200 lbs.
High school: Rummel High School in Metairie, LA
Position: Strong safety
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #13
Last year: I ranked Johnson #67 and said he would redshirt.  He started 3 games at outside linebacker and had 18 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass breakup.

Johnson’s role on the 2010 team was a little bit mysterious to me.  As a true freshman, he came in and immediately started at a position that he hadn’t played in high school; as a 195-pounder he was playing outside linebacker on a team that had more physically ready players at the position, such as redshirt freshman Thomas Gordon (23 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks).  Meanwhile, the team was experimenting with tiny freshmen like Courtney Avery and Terrence Talbott at safety.  Johnson’s starting role was somewhat short-lived, however, once he hurt his shoulder in the opener against Connecticut and missed the next three games.  He returned and played sporadically for the rest of the season, most notably notching 6 tackles against Mississippi State on New Year’s Day, but his debut season was largely forgettable for fans.

Then came the spring.  By the time April rolled around, Johnson was earning rave reviews from practice observers and after the spring game.  He turned a couple bad throws in the spring game and turned them into excellent interceptions and generally looked like the ballhawking safety that Michigan has been lacking for the last several years.  He even had decent enough speed to hunt down Denard Robinson on a long run, something we haven’t been able to say for a Michigan safety in a while.  With Marvin Robinson struggling to stick with assignments, Josh Furman looking uncomfortable in open space, and Jordan Kovacs somewhat limited athletically, Johnson has set himself apart as a near lock to start in the defensive backfield and could perhaps be an All-Big Ten performer by the time he graduates.

Prediction: 55 tackles, 3 interceptions

2011 Countdown: #13 Jordan Kovacs

Jordan Kovacs has crazy eyes

Name: Jordan Kovacs
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 197 lbs.
High school: Clay High School in Curtice, OH
Position: Strong safety
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #32
Last year: I ranked Kovacs #21 and said he would start at bandit and make 70 tackles.  He had 116 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 pass breakup.

Some might look at Kovacs’ 116 tackles in 2010 and think “Wow, he’s really good.”  Others might say, “Wow, the defensive front seven must have sucked for a safety to make that many tackles.”  The truthfulness of those statements is “sort of” and “yep.”  Michigan’s defense was atrocious last season, and it all started with the front seven.  Between linemen who couldn’t get any penetration, poor linebacker play, youthfulness, and a shoddy defensive philosophy, Kovacs found himself cleaning up the mess more often than anyone wanted (except opposing offensive coordinators).  He had 10+ tackles in six games last season, including a 17-tackle effort in the 37-7 loss (since wiped from OSU history) to the Buckeyes.  Unlike what we’re used to seeing at Michigan from guys like Charles Woodson, Brandon Graham, Shawn Crable, and others, Kovacs’ most amazing plays don’t stem from superior athleticism.  Rather than a burst of speed or a crushingly hard hit, there’s Kovacs instantly reading a play action pass and sticking to his TE coverage.  There’s Kovacs reading a deep pass from an Indiana quarterback and jumping in the way to knock it down.  There’s Kovacs watching the quarterback’s eyes and jumping in front of a pass from the Ohio State quarterback before the end of the half.

We all love Kovacs for those plays and his 116 tackles, despite not being very big or very fast.  And yet . . . we yearn for more.  I couldn’t help but lament his lack of speed when he intercepted OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor at the end of the half and returned it only 41 yards when it looked as if most defensive backs with decent speed could have taken it to the house.  If that happened, the nameless and speedy defensive back could have made it a 24-14 game going into the half, with Michigan down only 10 and momentum on their side.  Unfortunately, the return fizzled out and the Wolverines suffered the embarrassing, 30-point defeat.

And that’s the difference between Jordan Kovacs and the Ideal Strong Safety.  It’s not that a good strong safety can typically win a game all by himself.  It’s not that Kovacs is a bad player.  After all, he was a Freshman All-American in 2009 and an All-Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2010.  It’s just that he lacks that extra burst or change of direction that would make us say, “Holy s***” instead of “Can we amputate his head and put it on Justin Turner’s body?”

Going into the 2011 season, Kovacs might face a battle from young safeties Marvin Robinson and Josh Furman for the chance to start in the defensive backfield.  Kovacs has experience and intelligence on his side, but Robinson has the hitting ability (and a little bit of speed) and Furman has the speed to be difference makers back there.  It’s hard to imagine a redshirt junior with two years of starting (and 191 tackles) under his belt getting benched in favor of a sophomore or redshirt freshman who has, comparatively, accomplished approximately nothing.  But at some point, Michigan has to get back to creating oohs and aahs out of its defensive players, and not just what-ifs.

Prediction: Starting safety; 75 tackles

Countdown to Kickoff: Day 17