Tag: 2011 Season Countdown

2011 Countdown: #24 Michael Cox

Michael Cox

Name: Michael Cox
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 211 lbs.
High school: Avon Old Farms High School in Dorchester, MA
Position: Running back
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #15
Last year: I ranked Cox #17 and said he would be the starting running back with 700 yards.  He played in two games and had 6 carries for 56 yards.

Just like yesterday’s Devin Gardner discussion, my placement of Michael Cox this high on the list (the highest of the running backs) stirs up old arguments and will surely anger some people.  Cox has been the subject of frequent rumors about brain farts, cockiness, fumbles, etc.  All of those weaknesses have commiserated and  allowed him to touch the ball only 19 times in 6 regular season appearances.  Those 19 carries, though, have turned into 169 yards (8.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns.

Proponents of Cox will argue that he makes big plays.  In limited opportunities Cox has a 57-yard touchdown run, a 35-yard run, and a 24-yard jaunt.  That means nearly 16% of his carries have gone for 24 yards or more.  Cox also had the best run of the 2010 spring game (a 22-yard TD) and the 2011 spring game (a 68-yard TD).  In literally every competitive situation Michigan fans have witnessed him carry the ball, he’s produced a play of 22 yards or more.

Opponents of playing Cox more frequently will argue that the coaches know more than fans, which is certainly true.  They will also argue that Cox’s only career carries have come against MAC and FCS opponents, which is also true.  Their numbers (plus Stephen Hopkins’) against common opponents:

Cox: 19 carries, 169 yards, 8.9 yards per carry, 2 touchdowns
Shaw: 30 carries, 185 yards, 6.2 yards per carry, 3 touchdowns
Smith: 31 carries, 238 yards, 7.7 yards per carry, 3 touchdowns
Hopkins: 6 carries, 32 yards, 5.3 yards per carry, 0 touchdowns

All of the above statements are factual.  Each side has solid arguments.  But when I watch these potential starters play, I just don’t see big plays in the arsenal of Smith and Hopkins.  Shaw has more potential as a difference maker, but his problem has been injuries more than anything else.  There’s nothing anyone can do about that except maybe a witch doctor.  Two-year starter Vincent Smith has two career plays of 22 yards or more and Michael Shaw has five in 21 and 30 career games, respectively.

As for the coming season, it’s really a toss-up when it comes to naming a starter.  Brady Hoke has stated that he wants one guy to take the majority of the snaps and get 20-25 touches a game.  I don’t know who that guy will be.  A lot of people like Hopkins, but he’s not particularly outstanding.  Shaw is perpetually injured and didn’t get much run in the spring.  Smith will probably be a third down back.  Freshman Thomas Rawls reminds me of former Wolverine Kevin Grady, which isn’t necessarily a great thing, and classmate Justice Hayes probably needs a redshirt year to get himself physically ready.

Of course, Cox isn’t without question marks.  He’s not perfect, but he looks to me like the running back with the fewest warts.

Prediction: Starting running back; 175 carries, 875 yards, 10 touchdowns

2011 Countdown: #25 Devin Gardner

Devin Gardner

Name: Devin Gardner
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Inkster High School in Detroit, MI
Position: Quarterback
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #7
Last year: I ranked Gardner #72 and said he would redshirt.  He did.  Wait, no he didn’t.  Yes, he did.  Maybe not.  He played in 3 games and went 7/10 for 85 yards and 1 touchdown.  He also ran the ball 7 times for 21 yards and 1 touchdown.

Ah yes, the Devin Gardner situation.  Oh, how I can’t wait to revisit this one.  Gardner came into 2010 as the presumed #3 quarterback, with a returning starter (Tate Forcier) and the spring game superstar (Denard Robinson) ahead of him.  With two guys who were “known commodities,” it makes sense to redshirt your #3 guy, especially if he’s a potential star down the road.  But in the first game of the 2010 season against Connecticut, the starter (Robinson) exited the game with a minor hip injury and drama ensued.  Michigan fans sat enthralled by two quarterbacks warming up on the sideline: the returning starter and presumed #2 guy (Forcier) and the freshman (Gardner).  Gardner handed the ball once and lost four yards on the second play, Forcier looked confused on the sideline, and Robinson returned after a couple plays.  Forcier told a reporter “I’m out” when the game was over, and everyone assumed that meant he was transferring.  Meanwhile, I ranted against Rich Rodriguez for burning Gardner’s redshirt and pushing Forcier out the door.  Gardner played in two more games, handing off the ball against Notre Dame and putting up the above stats mostly against Bowling Green (aside from the one carry against Connecticut).  Then Gardner mysteriously developed a “back issue” that prevented him from being the primary backup during the last two-thirds of the season, giving way to Forcier.

Almost one year later . . .

. . . Forcier is gone.  He flunked out of school and has been rumored to be transferring to Miami, Hawaii, San Diego State, Montana, Grand Valley State, or even institutions that don’t field football programs.  Gardner’s redshirt status remains up in the air, since playing even one snap technically prevents a redshirt, although he can file a request for a waiver due to his mysterious “back issue” that miraculously cleared itself up prior to the bowl game.  Conveniently, that was just in time to be the #2 quarterback against Mississippi State with Forcier academically ineligible.

Gardner was again the #2 quarterback in the spring and earned rave reviews from some practice observers.  He had mixed results in the spring game, earning a 123.3 passer rating (compared to Denard Robinson’s 61.0) but throwing two interceptions, including one that was returned by Jake Ryan for a touchdown.  I have always thought that Gardner was more suited to a more pro-style offense than Robinson, but with offensive coordinator Al Borges promising to tailor the attack to the team’s strengths, we’re still probably going to see a lot of spread formations as long as Robinson remains the quarterback.  But if and when Shoelace gets hurt, Gardner isn’t the same caliber of runner, and I think he’ll lead a more traditional offensive package.

Prediction: Backup quarterback

2011 Countdown: #26 Marell Evans

Marell Evans

Name: Marell Evans
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 225 lbs.
High school: Varina High School in Richmond, VA
Position: Linebacker
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #9
Last year: I did not rank Evans.  He was at Hampton but did not play football.

Marell Evans’s story is intriguing, and that’s not even including his position or place on the depth chart.  He was a high school teammate of Brandon Minor who probably should have redshirted in 2007, but somewhat inexplicably burned that redshirt by playing in six games (making zero tackles) on special teams.  Then he was named the starter for the opener against Utah in 2008, a status that lasted one week.  His SAM linebacker spot was usurped by John Thompson, who was clearly a middle linebacker.  (Seriously, can anyone give me one good reason that Thompson didn’t play MIKE in 2008 and Ezeh the SAM position?  Thompson was a big hitter who was limited in coverage and worthless as a blitzer.  That’s not the description of a SAM.)  Anyway, after the season Evans transferred to FCS school Hampton.  He never said anything negative about Rich Rodriguez or the program, but he was clearly upset about his lack of playing time.

Fast forward three years . . . and now Evans is back in a Michigan uniform.  He rejoined the team this past winter and, due in equal parts to a lack of depth and an injury to Kenny Demens, Evans was the spring game starter at MIKE linebacker.  It turns out he never played at Hampton due to injuries, but he has one year of eligibility left and wanted to take another shot in Ann Arbor.  The reports from spring practice were positive, and Evans brings size and maturity to a linebacker group that’s lacking in both.  Not only does Evans look like a better WILL than redshirt sophomore Mike Jones, but Evans also looks like the top backup in the middle if Demens gets hurt again.  I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a college player go from a starter, then transfer for two years, and then return to his original school and start again, but Evans has the chance to do just that.

Prediction: Starting weakside linebacker, special teams contributor; 60 tackles

2011 Countdown: #27 Jake Ryan

Jake Ryan

Name: Jake Ryan
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 224 lbs.
High school: St. Ignatius High School in Westlake, OH
Position: Linebacker
Class: Redshirt freshman
Jersey number: #37
Last year: I ranked Ryan #80 and said he would redshirt.  He redshirted.

Ryan came out of high school as a bit of a wild card.  Some thought he would be an outside linebacker, some thought he would play MIKE, and some thought he would outgrow the linebacker position altogether and put his hand down as a defensive end.  He was too light and too raw to play last season, but toward the end of the year and during bowl practices, Ryan really started to make a name for himself.

He continued that momentum in the spring and made a push for the starting SAM linebacker position, which is part edge rusher.  Both of the candidates for SAM have some shortcomings; Cam Gordon is a little too wiry, and Ryan lacks technique.  But over the summer, defensive coordinator Greg Mattison made a comment like, “Ryan doesn’t have any technique, but then you look up and he’s making sacks.”  He might be one of those kids who just has a natural ability to make plays.  In limited playing time back in the spring game, Ryan made a sack and returned a Devin Gardner interception for a touchdown.  He’s a little bigger than Gordon (who’s a former safety) but a little less athletic, so whoever gets the call at SAM from play to play, series to series, quarter to quarter, or game to game might depend on whether the opponent’s strength is running or passing.

Prediction: Backup SAM; 40 tackles, 2 sacks

2011 Countdown: #28 Matt Wile

Matt Wile

Name: Matt Wile
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 210 lbs.
High school: Francis Parker High School in San Diego, CA
Position: Kicker
Class: Freshman
Jersey number: #45
Last year: Wile was a high school senior (commitment profile)

Wile was an Army All-American Bowl participant in January, which might be good (Will Hagerup) or bad (Brendan Gibbons).  He hit 10/13 field goals as a senior with a long of 49 and sent 91/101 kickoffs into the endzone for touchbacks.  He hit 9/12 field goals as a junior with a long of 48, so he’s been pretty consistent the past two seasons.

As we all know, Michigan’s combination of Seth Broekhuizen and Gibbons was atrocious in 2010.  Those two combined for 4/14 on field goals.  Since college kickers can’t use blocks, Wile has been practicing kicking off the ground ever since his senior season ended.  If he can make the adjustment well, Wile might be a huge upgrade on special teams and give the team a better chance to win close games.  He might be the starting placekicker right off the bat, but he’ll have to battle Will Hagerup for kickoff duties.  I admittedly know very little about kicking, but Wile sits this high on the list (and might be underrated) because of how much of a train wreck this team will be if its offense takes a step back and the kicker still can’t get the ball through the uprights.  Cross your fingers.

Prediction: Starting placekicker; backup kickoff specialist