Tag: 2021 Orange Bowl

2021 Orange Bowl: Georgia 34, Michigan 11

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Never underestimate recruiting rankings. I listen to Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman’s podcast pretty regularly, and Mandel made the point that usually in these playoffs, the more talented team wins. Winning as an underdog in the CFP is very, very tough to do. Georgia has one of the top few classes every single year, while Michigan seems to be anywhere from about #8 to #25 on a yearly basis. So when walk-on center Andrew Vastardis gets obliterated by the #22 player in the country (6’5″, 275 lb. Travon Walker) on a pull . . . yeah, that’s what happens. This isn’t Rutgers or Indiana or Northwestern with 250-260 lb. 3-star defensive ends. The bottom line is that Georgia is the more talented team, at almost every position.

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2021 Orange Bowl Preview: Final Predictions

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In case you missed it, I have broken the preview down into several parts this week. Feel free to check them out if you want:

• Roster Notes (LINK)
• Last Time They Played (LINK)
• Run O vs. Georgia Run D (LINK)
• Pass O vs. Georgia Pass D (LINK)
• Run D vs. Georgia Run O (LINK)
• Pass D vs. Georgia Pass O (LINK)

The game airs at 7:30 p.m. EST on December 31, 2021. You can watch it on ESPN, listen to it on one of those old radio thingies, or go see the game in Coral Gables, FL.

Hit the jump for the predictions.

2021 Orange Bowl Preview: Pass Defense vs. Georgia Pass Offense

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MICHIGAN
Michigan is #22 in pass defense (194.7 yards allowed/game) and #11 in passer rating defense. They have allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt, which ties them for #6 nationally. Only four teams have topped even 200 yards passing against them.

The primary reason for Michigan’s good pass defense is the edge rushers. Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson set a school record with 14 sacks, and outside linebacker David Ojabo wasn’t far behind with 11. They often line up wide and come tearing off the edge with reckless abandon, but they’re athletic and disruptive enough to make quarterbacks do things they don’t want to do, such as step up in the pocket and make quick decisions.

On the back end, cornerback Vincent Gray has had a bounce-back season after an abysmal 2020, and counterpart Christian Turner has turned into Michigan’s best cover guy with 2 interceptions and 7 pass breakups. Safety/nickel corner Daxton Hill (2 INT, 8 PBUs) has been taken advantage of by some slot fades against quick slot guys, but overall, he has also been very good.

Hit the jump for more.

2021 Orange Bowl Preview: Rush Defense vs. Georgia Rush Offense

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MICHIGAN
Michigan is #20 overall for giving up 121.5 yards per game this season. They’re tied with Ohio State (and CMU and PSU) at #23 for giving up 3.52 yards per carry, and they’re tied at #15 for giving up 11 rushing touchdowns this season. They are a good rushing defense bordering on elite; the only team that had sustained success was Michigan State with Kenneth Walker III almost exclusively doing the damage.

Michigan’s leading tackler is middle linebacker Josh Ross with 95. Safety Daxton Hill (65) and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson are the closest, and they’re not close. Michigan does a good job of containing the edge and funneling things back inside by playing Hutchinson and outside linebacker David Ojabo wide, letting Ross, Hill, and safety Brad Hawkins (54 tackles) clean things up inside.

The Wolverines have not produced a ton of tackles for loss this season with 69, which is tied for #74 in the nation. That’s despite getting a ton of sacks from Hutchinson (14) and Ojabo (11); in other words, sacks from those two have accounted for 36% of the team’s tackles for loss. I mentioned above that they’re tied at #74; what I didn’t mention is that they’re tied with Arizona State, Ball State, and Illinois, which is not exactly a murderer’s row of defenses.

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2021 Orange Bowl Preview: Pass Offense vs. Georgia Pass Defense

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MICHIGAN
The Wolverines are smack dab in the middle of the pack at #67 in passing offense (226 yards/game) and they’re #40 in passing efficiency. Meanwhile, they’re #86 in passing attempts with just 359 on the season. Starting quarterback Cade McNamara has completed 199/308 (64.6%) of his throws for 2,470 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. McNamara does not have a particularly strong arm, but he has done a good job of deciphering defenses and keeping the ball out of harm’s way.

The offensive line has allowed just 0.77 sacks per game. Just like in the run game, they don’t have a ton of great players up front, but they play well together. Some stunts and games inside confused the group early in the year, but they seem to have righted the ship as the season went along.

On the receiving end, ten different players have caught touchdowns . . . and no one has caught more than 3. It’s hard to predict from week to week who might step up and make a big play, but the two primary targets have been wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (37 catches, 620 yards, 3 TD) and tight end Erick All (34 catches, 374 yards, 2 TD). However, the two biggest yardage games have come from true freshman running back Donovan Edwards (10 catches, 170 yards, 1 TD vs. Maryland) and freshman wide receiver Andrel Anthony (3 catches, 155 yards, 2 TD vs. Michigan State).

Hit the jump for more.