23Mar 2014
Video: Quarterbacks talk offense
Hit the jump for Shane Morris, Russell Bellomy, and Wilton Speight.
Hit the jump for Shane Morris, Russell Bellomy, and Wilton Speight.
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| Devin Gardner has gone from catching touchdown passes against Alabama to likely throwing them for Alabama’s offensive coordinator. |
Every team is different, but I wanted to take a stab at what kind of production we can expect from new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier while he’s here in Ann Arbor. I looked at his last five years, which he spent with Washington (2009-2011) and then Alabama (2012-2013). I then averaged those seasons together to come up with a rough estimate of what types of numbers the Wolverines will put up. The player listed with the projection is my early guess at the depth chart for this upcoming fall.
Quarterback (Jake Locker, Keith Price, AJ McCarron):
230/395, 2800 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
184/332, 2265 yards, 17 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
242/362, 3063 yards, 33 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
211/314, 2933 yards, 30 touchdowns, 3 interceptions
226/336, 3063 yards, 28 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
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2014 Devin Gardner projection: 219/348, 62.9%, 2825 yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions
2013 Devin Gardner stats: 208/345, 60.3%, 2960 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Running Back #1 (Chris Polk, Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon):
226 carries, 1113 yards, 5 touchdowns
260 carries, 1415 yards, 9 touchdowns
293 carries, 1488 yards, 12 touchdowns
204 carries, 1322 yards, 17 touchdowns
207 carries, 1235 yards, 14 touchdowns
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2014 Derrick Green projection: 238 carries, 1315 yards, 11 touchdowns
2013 Fitzgerald Toussaint stats: 185 carries, 648 yards, 13 touchdowns
Running Back #2 (Demitrius Bronson, Jesse Callier, T.J. Yeldon, Kenyan Drake):
19 carries, 89 yards, 0 touchdowns
77 carries, 433 yards, 0 touchdowns
47 carries, 260 yards, 1 touchdown
175 carries, 1108 yards, 12 touchdowns
92 carries, 694 yards, 8 touchdowns
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2014 De’Veon Smith projection: 82 carries, 517 yards, 4 touchdowns
2013 Derrick Green stats: 83 carries, 270 yards, 2 touchdowns
Wide Receiver #1 (Jermaine Kearse, Amari Cooper):
50 catches, 866 yards, 8 touchdowns
63 catches, 1005 yards, 12 touchdowns
47 catches, 699 yards, 7 touchdowns
58 catches, 999 yards, 11 touchdowns
45 catches, 736 yards, 4 touchdowns
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2014 Devin Funchess projection: 53 catches, 861 yards, 8 touchdowns
2013 Jeremy Gallon stats: 89 catches, 1373 yards, 9 touchdowns
Wide Receiver #2 (Devin Aguilar, D’Andre Goodwin, Kevin Norwood):
42 catches, 593 yards, 5 touchdowns
44 catches, 530 yards, 4 touchdowns
41 catches, 611 yards, 6 touchdowns
29 catches, 469 yards, 4 touchdowns
38 catches, 568 yards, 7 touchdowns
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2014 Jehu Chesson projection: 39 catches, 554 yards, 5 touchdowns
2013 Devin Funchess stats: 49 catches, 748 yards, 6 touchdowns
Wide Receiver #3 (James Johnson, Devin Aguilar, Kasen Williams, Kenny Bell, DeAndrew White):
39 catches, 422 yards, 3 touchdowns
28 catches, 352 yards, 2 touchdowns
36 catches, 427 yards, 6 touchdowns
17 catches, 431 yards, 3 touchdowns
32 catches, 534 yards, 4 touchdowns
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2014 Amara Darboh projection: 30 catches, 433 yards, 4 touchdowns
2013 Jehu Chesson stats: 15 catches, 221 yards, 1 touchdown
Tight End #1 (Kavario Middleton, Marlion Barnett, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Michael Williams, O.J. Howard):
26 catches, 257 yards, 3 touchdowns
4 catches, 31 yards, 0 touchdowns
41 catches, 538 yards, 6 touchdowns
24 catches, 183 yards, 4 touchdowns
14 catches, 269 yards, 2 touchdowns
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2014 Jake Butt projection: 22 catches, 256 yards, 3 touchdowns
2013 Jake Butt stats: 17 catches, 235 yards, 2 touchdowns
Tight End #2 (Chris Izbicki, Michael Hartvigson, Kelly Johnson, Brian Vogler):
3 catches, 7 yards, 1 touchdown
2 catches, 16 yards, 1 touchdown
8 catches, 30 yards, 1 touchdown
5 catches, 39 yards, 0 touchdowns
8 catches, 71 yards, 1 touchdown
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2014 A.J. Williams projection: 5 catches, 33 yards, 1 touchdown
2013 A.J. Williams stats: 1 catch, 2 yards, 1 touchdown
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| Could Shane Morris be the next A.J. McCarron? |
THIS HIRE IS GOOD FOR . . .
Fifth year senior quarterback Devin Gardner. Gardner has one final chance to show his stuff at quarterback, and I think Nussmeier will bring a more cohesive offense to Ann Arbor. Gardner can run out of the shotgun and pistol, and he’s not bad throwing from under center. I expect Nussmeier to simplify Michigan’s blocking schemes, which should help out the young linemen and the quarterback. The new offensive coordinator also likes to push the ball down the field (as did Al Borges), which suits Gardner well because he has a strong arm and throws a nice deep ball.
The offensive line. Michigan’s young offensive line was terrible this past season, and it appears that Nussmeier may bring in a new offensive line coach to help him out. Whether coach Darrell Funk remains or not, I expect that Nussmeier will want a little more beef up front, and his coaching pedigree at Alabama suggests that he can help those guys achieve a new level of success.
Sophomore running backs Derrick Green and De’Veon Smith. Nussmeier utilized the inside zone game and zone sweeps to great effect at Alabama, which recruited Green out of high school. Both Green and Smith fit the role of good inside zone runners, because both of them are north-south runners capable of running through tackles. Green has the better speed of the two and would likely be more effective on the zone sweeps.
Sophomore quarterback Shane Morris and freshman quarterback Wilton Speight. Nussmeier has tutored numerous successful college quarterbacks (A.J. McCarron, Jake Locker, Drew Stanton, Jeff Smoker) and spent time with the St. Louis Rams under passing game guru Mike Martz. I can see Morris as a McCarron-like Game Manager Plus, a guy who can not only take care of the football and keep his team in the game, but make some downfield throws to really stress defenses.
Redshirt freshman H-backs Khalid Hill and Wyatt Shallman. Nussmeier likes to use his H-backs as lead blockers, wings, slot receivers, etc. Hill and Shallman appear to be good fits for this role, more so than the fullbacks who have been playing the past couple seasons.
THIS HIRE IS BAD FOR . . .
Redshirt junior running back Justice Hayes. Nussmeier does not appear to be a fan of scatback types, at least not for featured roles. Hayes was reported to be moving to slot receiver, although he started Michigan’s bowl game at running back. His chances of winning the running back job next year likely took a hit with this hire.
Junior fullback Sione Houma and redshirt junior fullback Joe Kerridge. Nussmeier is a proponent of a one-back offense and doesn’t have a whole lot of use for true fullback types. The hire will almost certainly diminish their role in the offense, which was already more significant than it should have been based on Michigan’s personnel and abilities.
I have completed in-depth previews of each of the position comparisons over the past couple weeks, and they’re more exhaustive than anything else I’ve read in the blogosphere. I had hoped to do some play breakdowns, but the holidays and traveling got in the way. Here are the links to each section:
Quarterbacks
Running backs
Wide receivers and tight ends
Offensive line
Defensive line
Linebackers
Defensive backs
Special teams
INJURY NEWS
The most significant injury news (and a change from the above preview) is that Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner will miss the bowl game with a broken foot, which he suffered in the Ohio State game. His replacement will be true freshman Shane Morris, who is 5/9 for 65 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception in very limited time this year. Obviously, this will be his first start. Morris came out of high school with a big arm, but he’s not the most polished quarterback to come out of high school. He tends to stare down his receivers, and his accuracy has been questioned. In high school – even in 7-on-7 tournaments – the lefty seemed to throw almost exclusively to his left. I would expect Kansas State defensive coordinator Tom Hayes to blitz Morris endlessly, considering he’s just a pup and, oh by the way, Michigan’s offensive line has struggled mightily this year. That’s a bad combination if you’re a Wolverines fan.
In other injury news, Kansas State will get perhaps their best player back in the form of safety Ty Zimmerman. He was listed as questionable for the bowl game after missing the final two regular season games.
ROSTER NOTES
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| Jake Waters (#15) and Daniel Sams (#4) |
MICHIGAN
Starter: Redshirt junior Devin Gardner (6’4″, 210 lbs.) started all twelve games for Michigan this year and had a roller coaster of a season. He put up pretty solid overall statistics (60% completions, 2960 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), but the early part of the year was marred with interceptions and fumbles against some mediocre teams. Gardner is a very mobile quarterback in the mold of the San Francisco 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick, but he has been slowed by injuries suffered behind a poor offensive line. He has the physical ability to make any throw and to outrun most defenders (483 yards and 11 scores on the ground), but the confidence to make those plays waned after he threw 10 interceptions in the first six games. The ball security improved during the second half of the year, and he turned in a dazzling performance against Ohio State in the regular season finale (32/45, 451 yards, 4 touchdowns).
Backups: Freshman Shane Morris (6’3″, 201 lbs.) played sparingly this year, attempting just 9 passes; he completed 5, threw for 65 yards, and had 1 interception. In one late-game series against Michigan State, he literally fell on his face while trying to scramble for a first down. Morris is strictly a pocket passer who has a strong tendency to throw only to his left. Redshirt freshman Brian Cleary (6’3″, 209 lbs.) has barely played at all and is a walk-on.
KANSAS STATEStarters: The Wildcats have a two-platoon system at quarterback, with redshirt junior JakeWaters (138/233, 59% completions, 2198 yards, 15 touchdowns, 9 interceptions) being the thrower and redshirt sophomore Daniel Sams being the runner (38/52, 73% completions, 452 yards, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions. Sams has 784 yards and a 5.3-yard average, along with 11 touchdowns; Waters isn’t bad on the hoof with 270 yards, 2.6 yards/carry, and 6 touchdowns. Sams (6’2″, 207 lbs.) is a spindly-legged runner who runs a little like Devin Gardner, but he’s more unrefined as a passer and can get spooked fairly easily, which isn’t a terrible thing if you can take off and run. When he’s in the game, look for single wing type of plays that are designed quarterback runs, with guards pulling and fullbacks leading up through. A Big Ten corollary might be former Purdue quarterback/running back Justin Siller. Waters (6’1″, 210 lbs.) is a junior college transfer who was the National Junior College Athletic Association Player of the Year last season at Iowa Western. He has a quick release and a strong arm, but he’s not the most accurate guy and can force some throws. He can run a little bit inside, but he’s not the type of guy to threaten the edge.
Backups: No other quarterback has attempted a pass this year.
THE TAKEAWAY
Gardner is a better quarterback than Waters or Sams, but the Wildcats have a pretty effective combination. When Gardner is on his game like he was against Ohio State, he’s virtually unstoppable because he can run and throw; when he’s scared of the pass rush, he gets tentative, pulls his eyes down, and plays tight. His play is largely dependent on whether Michigan can establish a running game and protect him. Waters is coming off a poor three-game stretch where he completed 50% of his passes for 7 touchdowns and 4 picks against TCU, Oklahoma, and Kansas; Sams barely played against the latter two, but had 109 yards rushing against the Horned Frogs. Michigan has done just enough against the two-headed quarterback system of Northwestern over the past couple years to eke out a couple wins. Sams at quarterback is pretty much a telegraphed run, so we’ll see if the Wolverines can handle the Wildcats up front.
ADVANTAGE: Michigan
