2012 Season Predictions

Tag: Fitzgerald Toussaint

31Aug 2012
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2012 Season Predictions

This is always fun.  Take a look at my 2011 predictions.

Now for the things that will absolutely, 100% become true in the coming months:
Leading Rusher
Last year I picked the right guy (Denard Robinson) but fell short on the yardage.  Now that it looks like Fitzgerald Toussaint will miss some time due to legal issues, it’s even more likely that Robinson leads the team in rushing for the third straight season.  Hopefully he can stay healthy and make this come true.
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 1200 yards

Leading Receiver
Starting flanker Roy Roundtree looks like he’s being groomed to be this year’s #1 target, now that he’s been moved to the multiple receiver side and wearing the #21 jersey.  The coaches want him to be The Guy, and he’s been successful before.  He doesn’t have the same ability to catch balls in traffic as last year’s leading receiver Junior Hemingway, but he does have some smoothness and shiftiness to him.
Prediction: Roy Roundtree, 750 yards

Leading Tackler
Starting middle linebacker Kenny Demens returns to the same role this season.  He doesn’t have the same talent in front of him to keep him clean, but the mass of Quinton Washington and William Campbell, along with the steady play of Craig Roh, should help Demens maintain some level of consistency.
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 90 tackles

Leading Sacker
The pass rush is not this team’s specialty.  Especially if weakside end Frank Clark can’t play much because of legal issues, the athleticism just isn’t there for the full-time players.  The best pass rusher on the unit is SAM linebacker Jake Ryan, but he might be overmatched if he has to play too much weakside end.  Ryan is better as a guy who moves around from the edge to an inside blitz, back to the edge, etc.
Prediction: Jake Ryan, 5.5 sacks

Leading Interceptor
I picked J.T. Floyd for this spot in 2010, but he got hurt halfway through the year.  Then I picked Jordan Kovacs last season, and he ended up with just 1 pick.  The best cover guy on the squad is Blake Countess, in my opinion, but Countess had 0 picks last year, though he had 1 in the spring game.  So I’m going to combine my last two choices.
Prediction: J.T. Floyd and Jordan Kovacs, 2 interceptions each

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Taylor Lewan, Denard Robinson

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint

Breakout Offensive Player
A lot of starters return again in 2012, and last year’s choice (Jeremy Gallon) already kind of broke out.  Lots of exiting Michigan players have mentioned Jerald Robinson as a guy to watch, but I have yet to see it.  I’ll go with Thomas Rawls, who at the very least should be able to run over some mediocre competition through the first half of the year (except Alabama) and pile up some decent numbers.
Prediction: Thomas Rawls

Breakout Defensive Player
This is a tough choice, because the back seven guys all return, the defensive line is expected to be mediocre, and perhaps my #1 choice during the offseason (Frank Clark) is in legal trouble and might miss too much time to be a smart choice here.  I guess I’ll go with Thomas Gordon, who showed flashes of playmaking ability last year.  I expect him to be even better in pass coverage this year and help support the run quite a bit, so this should be a big year for him.
Prediction: Thomas Gordon

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Lots of outgoing players have chosen Jerald Robinson as a breakout player, and we haven’t even seen a glimpse of it in a spring game.  Before Roy Roundtree’s 2010 breakout season, he had a good end to the 2009 campaign and an awesome spring game.  Before Jeremy Gallon’s 2011 breakout season, he had some nice plays during his 2010 redshirt freshman season.  Robinson must do a lot in practice, but it never translates to anything more than that.  He won’t disappoint me because I’m not expecting a ton, but I do think he’ll disappoint some of those guys who think he’ll be a stud.
Prediction: Jerald Robinson

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
The only way anyone in the back seven disappoints is if they regress.  It’s already a rather solid group, perhaps without a superstar but pretty good nonetheless.  I think defensive tackle/end Jibreel Black is going to struggle.  He’s too small to play 3-tech and too big/stiff to be a quality weakside end.  He might be okay against the run as a weakside end, but Michigan probably won’t get much of a pass rush out of him.
Prediction: Jibreel Black

The Big Finish
Sept. 1 vs. Alabama: LOSS.  Michigan is probably going to struggle, especially running the ball.  Alabama has a very good offensive line and stops the run well.  That leaves the game in Denard Robinson’s hands, and he can’t pass Michigan to a win.

Sept. 8 vs. Air Force: WIN.  Air Force is going to struggle this season, and Michigan will be angry coming off the loss to Alabama.

Sept. 15 vs. Massachusetts: WIN.  UMass is in its first season in the FBS, and Michigan should handle them pretty well.  And it won’t be a close final score like it was a couple years ago.

Sept. 22 at Notre Dame: WIN.  This is basically a toss-up because Notre Dame is going to be on the upswing this year, I think.  The Fighting Irish will be better, but Denard Robinson shouldn’t be making the same mistakes he did in last year’s game.

Oct. 6 at Purdue: WIN.  Purdue probably won’t be very good this year.

Oct. 13 vs. Illinois: WIN.  Illinois doesn’t have the offensive firepower to beat Michigan.  They always seem to have a couple good defensive players, but they’re probably going to get overpowered on offense.

Oct. 20 vs. Michigan State: LOSS. Michigan State’s defense scares me a little bit, and Michigan hasn’t shown over the past few years that they can handle the pressure up the middle.

Oct. 27 at Nebraska: WIN.  This was a blowout in Ann Arbor last season, and Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead had a bit of a rough day.  Michigan’s defensive line manhandled Nebraska’s offensive line, so it won’t be a blowout, just a fairly close victory.

Nov. 3 at Minnesota: WIN. Minnesota is bad.

Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern: WIN.  Offensively, Northwestern will give Michigan some trouble like they always do.  But eventually Michigan will figure it out, and the Wildcats won’t be able to hold up on defense.

Nov. 17 vs. Iowa: WIN. Iowa lost quite a bit last year, and I think this might be a year when Kirk Ferentz and his revamped coaching staff can’t hold it all together.

Nov. 24 at Ohio State: LOSS.  The Buckeyes are going to be good at the whole defense thing, but I expect them to take a year before Urban Meyer’s offense really takes shape.  However, the game is at the Horseshoe, so Michigan will be a little off their game.

Final record: 9-3

26Aug 2012
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2012 Season Countdown: #4 Fitzgerald Toussaint

Fitzgerald Toussaint

 Name: Fitzgerald Toussaint
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Youngstown (OH) Liberty
Position: Running back
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #28
Last year: I ranked Toussaint #53 and said he would be a backup running back and kick returner.  He started eleven games at tailback and had 187 carries for 1,041 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and 9 touchdowns.  He also caught 6 passes for 28 yards (4.7 yards per catch) and 1 touchdown.

If I awarded an annual Underranked Player of the Year trophy, it would go to Fitzgerald Toussaint.  It wasn’t that I was down on Toussaint’s abilities, but I didn’t expect him to stay healthy.  There always seem to be a couple players who suffer from perpetual injuries, and he was one up to that point.  Toussaint took over the starting running back job and rushed for 120+ yards in four out of the last six games.  His best performance came against Illinois, when he rushed 27 times for 192 yards and a touchdown.  He’s got the best of both worlds, because he’s part Jitterbug and part Mini-Plow; he can make you miss and gain some tough yards.

Naturally, once he rid himself of the injury bug, he caught the Grady-Stonum bug and got picked up by the police for driving under the influence of things that should not have been influencing him.  It’s unclear how soon he will be cleared to play, although he missed some practice time and most people (including me) think he should miss at least the first half of the opener against Alabama, if not more.  The loss of Toussaint for the Alabama game could potentially be disastrous.  The coaches like Thomas Rawls and so do a lot of analysts and fans, but he only has 13 carries under his belt and does not have the elusiveness of Toussaint.  Rawls is going to have to break tackles that Toussaint would likely avoid, and that’s going to slow down the offense.  Whenever #28 returns to action, he should pick up where he left off and have another great performance this season.  A missed start or two could cost him some end-of-season accolades within the Big Ten, and the presence of guys like Montee Ball, Rex Burkhead, and Le’Veon Bell in the conference could drop him to All-Big Ten Honorable Mention or even off the list altogether.

Prediction: Starting running back (whenever he returns); 180 carries, 1020 yards, 10 touchdowns

Poll results: Ricky Barnum got 69% of the vote for the #3 spot, while Toussaint got 30%.

9Jul 2012
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2012 Maxwell, Bednarik Award Watch Lists

The Maxwell Football Club released their Maxwell and Bednarik Award watch lists today, and there are a couple Wolverines on the list – along with several guys on Michigan’s schedule and in the Big Ten:

MAXWELL AWARD (Best Overall Player)
A.J. McCarron – QB – Alabama
Eddie Lacy – RB – Alabama
James Vandenberg – QB – Iowa
Denard Robinson – QB – Michigan
Fitzgerald Toussaint – RB – Michigan
Le’Veon Bell – RB – Michigan State
Rex Burkhead – RB – Nebraska
Cierre Wood – RB – Notre Dame
Tyler Eifert – TE – Notre Dame
Braxton Miller – QB – Ohio State
Silas Redd – RB – Penn State
Logan Thomas – QB – Virginia Tech*
Montee Ball – RB – Wisconsin

BEDNARIK AWARD (Best Defensive Player)
Nico Johnson – LB – Alabama
Robert Lester – CB – Alabama
C.J. Mosley – LB – Alabama
Jesse Williams – DT – Alabama
Jonathan Brown – LB – Illinois
Michael Buchanan – DE – Illinois
Micah Hyde – CB – Iowa
James Morris – LB – Iowa
Johnny Adams – CB – Michigan State
Denicos Allen – LB – Michigan State
Max Bullough – LB – Michigan State
William Gholston – LB – Michigan State
Manti Te’o – LB – Notre Dame
Johnathan Hankins – DT – Ohio State
John Simon – DE – Ohio State
Gerald Hodges – LB – Penn State
Ricardo Allen – CB – Purdue
Kawann Short – DT – Purdue
Kyle Fuller – CB – Virginia Tech*
James Gayle – DE – Virginia Tech*
Bruce Taylor – LB – Virginia Tech*
Chris Borland – LB – Wisconsin

*Virginia Tech isn’t on the schedule this coming season, obviously, but Michigan just played them in January, so I thought it was relevant.

25May 2012
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Phil Steele’s preseason All-Big Ten Team

The famed Phil Steele released his preseason All-Big Ten list on Wednesday, and since Steele is often pretty accurate with his predictions, I’ll give them a look.  You can click through to see the whole team, but here are Michigan’s representatives on his four-deep list:

FIRST TEAM
QB: Denard Robinson
WR: Roy Roundtree
OT: Taylor Lewan

SECOND TEAM
RB: Fitzgerald Toussaint
LB: Kenny Demens
CB: J.T. Floyd
S: Jordan Kovacs

THIRD TEAM
OG: Patrick Omameh
DE: Craig Roh
PR: Jeremy Gallon

FOURTH TEAM
WR: Jeremy Gallon
S: Thomas Gordon

I don’t have many qualms with Steele’s selections, but if we’re talking about pure talent, Fitzgerald Toussaint is superior to Rex Burkhead.  Burkhead is a fine back, but he’s a four-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust running back.  Toussaint has speed, power, and elusiveness.  The only thing holding Toussaint back is the fact that he has to share carries with quarterback Denard Robinson in a “pro style” offense that also distributes the ball to tight ends and receivers.  For Nebraska, the ball is in Burkhead’s hands or those of quarterback Taylor Martinez.  That’s the only reason that the Cornhuskers running back had more rushing yards last season.  In total, Burkhead had almost 100 carries more than Toussaint (284 to 187) but only had 316 more yards (1,357 to 1,041).  If Michigan had given Toussaint the ball 97 more times and he only averaged 3.26 yards a carry, then he could have equaled Burkhead’s output.  On the flip side, if Toussaint had maintained his 5.6 yards per carry for 97 more carries, he would have ended the year with 1,581 yards.

And that’s my case for Fitzgerald Toussaint being awesome.

And I hate to be a Debbie Downer for Michigan fans, but Roy Roundtree hasn’t shown that he can be one of the two best receivers in the conference; he was great as a slot receiver two years ago, but he struggled on the outside last season.  I would also probably take Darqueze Dennard and/or Terry Hawthorne over J.T. Floyd for the second team, but statistically, Floyd isn’t a bad choice.