Review of 2013 Season Predictions

Tag: Jake Butt


30Dec 2013
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Review of 2013 Season Predictions

Jeremy Gallon set several records this season.

Here’s a link to my 2013 Season Predictions, which were posted at the end of August. This might be more fun for me than for you, but it’s interesting to me to see how things played out this year.

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 900 yards
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 658 yards
Thoughts: The offensive line was worse than anyone expected it to be, and Toussaint struggled to average 3.5 yards/carry. The next highest total was Devin Gardner’s 483 yards.

LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon, 1100 yards
Actual: Jeremy Gallon, 1373 yards
Thoughts: Gallon had an outstanding season and goes down in the record books with the top yardage output by any receiver in Michigan history, surpassing Braylon Edwards’s 1,330 yards in 2004. I expected him to have a very good season due to the Gardner-Gallon chemistry, but this was more explosive than anyone probably envisioned.

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: James Ross III, 90 tackles
Actual: Raymon Taylor, 86 tackles
Thoughts: It’s bad news when a cornerback leads the team in tackles, especially when that tackle total is so high. Opposing quarterbacks completed a lot of passes in front Taylor. Ross missed the second half of the Iowa game and the entire Ohio State game, so I’m pretty confident that he would have led the team in tackles if he had remained healthy.

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Frank Clark, 8 sacks
Actual: Frank Clark and Cameron Gordon, 5 sacks (tie)
Thoughts: Clark started off slowly before turning on the jets a little bit in the middle of the season, but his season was somewhat of a disappointment considering all the offseason hype. Gordon started off quickly but lost some playing time once Jake Ryan returned midseason.

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Taylor Lewan and Jeremy Gallon
Actual: Taylor Lewan was chosen by the Coaches and the Media. Devin Funchess and Blake Countess were chosen by the Media only.
Thoughts: Lewan was an obvious choice, and Gallon was robbed after conference finishes of #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, and #3 in touchdowns. Funchess earned his accolades as a tight end despite playing mostly at wide receiver, and Countess might be the Comeback Player of the Year in the conference after tearing his ACL in 2012. Nobody else on the team really had an argument to earn First Team honors.

LEADING SCORER (NON-QB, NON-KICKER)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 12 touchdowns
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 13 touchdowns
Thoughts: Toussaint ended up scoring 78 points on 13 rushing touchdowns, while I thought he would score 10 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns, leaving him with 72 points. Gallon was next with 54 total points.

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jehu Chesson
Actual: Jake Butt
Thoughts: Chesson had an okay year with several devastating blocks, some nice plays on special teams coverage, and 15 catches for 221 yards and 1 touchdown. But I think Butt deserves this award as he improved as a blocker and became a reliable receiving target with 20 catches for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns.

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction:
 James Ross
Actual: I don’t even know who to pick here. Perhaps the answer here is Blake Countess, but I don’t believe I even thought of him as being in the running since he was a starter as a true freshman in 2011. You could probably make an argument for Ross, Cam Gordon, or Frank Clark, who are the three guys I mentioned considering back in August.
Thoughts: Ross nearly led the team in tackles and might have surpassed 100 if he had been healthy. Gordon and Clark tied for the team lead in sacks. I don’t really see any other legitimate options here, although we saw glimpses of what Chris Wormley, Willie Henry, Ben Gedeon, and Jarrod Wilson can do.

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jack Miller
Actual: Jack Miller?
Thoughts: Again, I’m not sure whom to pick here. Miller started the first several games at center before being benched, never to see the field again. There was lots of disappointment to go around due to the underachieving offense (Devin Gardner, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Taylor Lewan, Kyle Kalis, even Devin Funchess). I guess Miller wins because he was really the only starter to get permanently benched, but I’m open to arguments.

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction:
 Jarrod Wilson
Actual: Courtney Avery
Thoughts: This is another tough choice, but Wilson made some nice plays early in the season. Avery proved to be kind of a lost cause at cornerback and safety, where he didn’t really make one significant play all season except half of a sack against Michigan State. Otherwise, he was invisible except when guys were running past him. He went from a good nickel corner in 2011 to an okay one in 2012 to a liability at two different positions in 2013.

FINAL RECORD
Central Michigan:
Win
Notre Dame: Win
Akron: Win
UConn: Win
Minnesota: Win
Penn State: Win Loss
Indiana: Win
Michigan State: Win Loss
Nebraska: Loss
Northwestern: Win
Iowa: Win Loss
Ohio State: Loss
—————————–
Prediction: 10-2
Actual: 7-5 (7-6 after bowl game) 

20Dec 2013
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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Receivers and Tight Ends

Tyler Lockett is the key to Kansas State’s passing game.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The diminutive fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) is the go-to guy, and he had an all-conference season with 80 catches, 1284 yards, and 9 touchdowns. He can be effective on just about any route – screens, hitches, square ins, fades, double moves, jump balls, etc. Aside from his lack of height (which he makes up for with his leaping ability and the timing of those leaps), he doesn’t have truly blazing speed, so he sometimes pulls away before getting tracked down in a foot race. The other starting wide receiver is sophomore Devin Funchess (6’5″, 235 lbs.), who made all-conference listed as a tight end but rarely plays it anymore; he has 47 catches for 727 yards and 6 scores. Funchess is Michigan’s bubble screen guy, leaps over tacklers sometimes, runs an occasional end around, and can beat teams deep. The de facto starting tight end is freshman Jake Butt (6’6″, 246 lbs.), who has come on late in the season to catch 17 balls for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. Butt can do a little bit of everything between blocking, catching, and running.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) started a little bit early in the year before Funchess’s blocking became too big of a problem at tight end, and while Chesson’s playing time has dropped a little bit, he’s actually improved his route running and ability to adjust to the ball in the air. He has 13 catches for 213 yards and 1 touchdown. Senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) is the only other significant receiving threat, but he’s a possession guy who usually works over the middle. Occasionally, senior Jeremy Jackson (6’3″, 209 lbs.) or redshirt senior Joe Reynolds (6’1″, 196 lbs.) will pop up for a catch, but they’ve totaled just 10 catches for 140 yards and 0 scores this year. Sophomore A.J. Williams (6’6″, 265 lbs.) and redshirt junior Jordan Paskorz (6’3″, 255 lbs.) are the “blocking” tight ends that struggle to block, and while they’ll be on the field a fair amount, they have just 1 total catch.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: The clear leader of the receiving corps is junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.), who has 71 catches for 1,146 yards and 8 touchdowns on the season. Lockett has made a lot of big catches for the Wildcats and can be a real threat to the secondary on deep routes. Fifth year senior Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.) is also a big-play guy from the slot with 28 catches for 495 yards (17.7 yards/catch) and 5 touchdowns. Junior Curry Sexton (5’11”, 183 lbs.) is the other receiver in K-State’s three-wide attack, and he’s been more of a possession guy with 36 catches for 409 yards. Redshirt junior tight end Zach Trujillo is rarely targeted, but he has 5 catches for 111 yards and 1 touchdown.
Backups: Senior Torell Miller (6’3″, 213 lbs.) is a former safety who was expected to start this year in place of Sexton, but he’s been relegated to backup duty and 11 catches, 106 yards, and 1 touchdown. Redshirt sophomore Kyle Klein (6’4″, 210 lbs.) is a former defensive end who has 5 catches for 59 yards on the season. Fifth year senior Andre McDonald (6’8″, 278 lbs.) is a mammoth blocking tight end who has just 2 catches for 19 yards this season. It’s a very thin group of receivers.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan has two guys who can be consistent deep threats, and another who has the speed to do so. Gallon has been outstanding this year and was one of the top couple receivers in the conference, while Funchess is simply a matchup nightmare. The other guys aren’t very scary, but Chesson, Dileo, and Butt can all be good secondary targets and move the chains. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a guy who can blow up in the form of Lockett, plus a somewhat dangerous slot guy in Thompson. In a couple closely contested shootouts against Big 12 opponents, Lockett has gone over 230 yards (237 against Texas, 278 against Oklahoma), and he’s the guy that quarterbacks Jake Waters and Daniel Sams will look to if things get rough. If the Wildcats can move the ball consistently on the ground, they’ll settle for trying to win the game without putting the ball in the air too much. Tight ends have hurt Michigan in a few games this year (Minnesota’s Maxx Williams, Iowa’s C.J. Fiedorowicz, Ohio State’s Jeff Heuerman), but that shouldn’t be a persistent problem in this game. It’s a tall task to stop Lockett, but he’s the key to their passing game.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan

1Dec 2013
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Ohio State 42, Michigan 41

Freshman tight end Jake Butt caught this touchdown pass to tie the game at 35 (image via MLive)

And that’s why this is such a great rivalry. When Michigan was 8-3 last year going up against an 11-0 Ohio State, it took some late field goals for the Buckeyes to win 26-21. When Michigan was 7-4 this year going up against an 11-0 Ohio State, it took a botched two-point conversion for the Buckeyes to escape with a 42-41 victory. Michigan has a very talented, capable football team. When they execute and play up to their capabilities, they can hang in there with just about anyone.

Devin Gardner played his behind off. Gardner must have had the adrenaline flowing early in the game, because he looked like a different player out there. The guy has looked bruised and battered for the past several weeks, but this week didn’t show it until late in the game when he tweaked his ankle. He finished the game 32/45 for 451 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions; he also ran 9 times for 10 yards and 1 touchdown. That’s arguably his best career performance, even though it came in a loss. His numbers were a little better in this year’s Notre Dame game, but that game also featured an ugly interception thrown in his own endzone. If he can stay healthy, this is the type of player Gardner should be every week.

The two-point conversion, Part I. I was critical of Brady Hoke’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against Northwestern, so I’m not being a Hoke slappie when I say that I think going for two was the best decision at the end of the game. Michigan was the underdog. While they were playing better than they have in weeks, the defense wasn’t up to par (no James Ross or Jarrod Wilson, Carlos Hyde and Braxton Miller ran for a ton of yards, etc.) and Gardner was gimpy. If you extend the game there, you run the risk of having to slug it out for the extent of overtime with your most dynamic performer hobbled or potentially knocked out of the game. Hoke is a fairly aggressive coach when it comes to decision-making, and while it didn’t work this time, I think he usually makes the right call.

The two-point conversion, Part II. What I didn’t like was the play call. Maybe Ohio State was expecting it, but I was fully ready for Michigan to roll Gardner out to the right, where Drew Dileo had motioned into a trips look. And while that seems like an obvious call, it puts [an admittedly hobbled] Gardner on the edge, where he can make a play with his feet – or it puts him in an easier throwing situation with a rub route, a shovel pass, etc. On a critical play like that, I like to put my players in a situation that makes them  comfortable, regardless of what the other team might do. Yes, Ohio State may have been expecting a rollout, but that doesn’t mean they could have stopped it.

The brawl. I would love to sit here and say that the Buckeyes started it and they’re clearly the enemy, but that was instigated by a crew of Michigan players who were intentionally crowding freshman returner Dontre Wilson after the play. Wilson needs to be smarter and not let stuff like that get to him, but the Michigan guys lit the match. I was glad that more players weren’t ejected, but there probably could have been a couple more if the referees wanted to really take control. As it turned out, things worked in Michigan’s favor, since all they lost was special teamer Royce Jenkins-Stone; the Buckeyes lost an integral part of their offense and special teams in Wilson and a starting offensive guard, Marcus Hall, who proceeded to give two middle fingers to Michigan’s crowd as he went to the tunnel, all the while stomping and throwing things in a childish temper tantrum. Hopefully that will result in a suspension for Hall.

Michigan was in a bad place defensively. I have made no secret of not being a fan of Josh Furman’s abilities at safety, and he was the culprit on a couple big plays, including a 53-yard touchdown pass to Devin Smith. Starting safety Jarrod Wilson was supposedly in a cast on the sideline, so I guess he wasn’t an option, but Furman just isn’t up to snuff as a safety. Despite very good speed, he doesn’t recognize routes or read plays very well. It looks like he’ll be in line to start next to Wilson next year, since both Courtney Avery and Thomas Gordon graduate, so hopefully his extended experience this season helps him improve. Meanwhile, the Wolverines were missing leading tackler James Ross after he got injured against Iowa last week. As far as I know, Ohio State was at full strength on defense, but the Wolverines’ loss of two key players defensively – and the absence of placekicker Brendan Gibbons, who might have nailed a field goal instead of forcing Hoke to go for it on an ill-fated fourth down – could have made a difference.

Devin Gardner’s fumble wasn’t a fumble. His knees were down when the ball came out. Replay should have overturned the fumble. At the very least, the call should have “stood” but the referee said replay “confirmed” the fumble. Of course, that last sentence is pretty inconsequential.

The running backs are good? Freshman De’Veon Smith led the team with 7 carries for 57 yards, including a 38-yarder. His lack of breakaway speed was apparent, so hopefully people will stop saying that he’s fast just because he ran away from a bunch of tiny kids at Warren Howland; but he did break a solid tackle attempt on that 38-yarder, so that’s something. Senior Fitzgerald Toussaint had 5 carries for 33 yards and 1 touchdown, along wtih 4 receptions for 48 yards. Freshman Derrick Green had 12 carries for 47 yards. Overall, those guys combined for 24 carries, 137 yards, and 1 touchdown, which is a pretty solid day.

The offensive line is good? Hahahaha, just kidding, guys. No, the offensive line isn’t good, but it has improved over the past few weeks. Michigan State and Nebraska were the nadir of the line, and now it has progressed to a mediocre level. I’ve said for a couple years that I think 2014 is where the offensive line starts to get it together, despite the losses of Taylor Lewan and Michael Schofield, the latter of whom has never particularly impressed me. However, those running backs mentioned above were tackled for a grand total of zero  losses, a clear improvement from weeks past. The line still allowed 6 tackles for loss thanks to 3 sacks of Gardner, a couple Gardner runs, and a Devin Funchess run.

Al Borges and Darrell Funk are saved? Boy, oh boy. If you’re an Al Borges hater, this performance might have been the worst thing for you. If Michigan came out and laid an egg offensively, I think Borges would have definitely been out the door after the season. He still might, but this makes it a tougher call. The same goes for Funk, the offensive line coach. Of course, Hoke and athletic director David Brandon are paid to look at things objectively, not just in the aftermath of one of Michigan’s best offensive performances this year. The overall product on the field has been subpar for the majority of the year. I like that Borges eventually capitulated to running bubble screens, the bubble screen draw, and various other screens, but it took too long for Michigan to get away from running power and iso this year. The Wolverines had a heyday with screens to Funchess, Gallon, Toussaint, and Butt in this game, and for good reason.

This was a great game. Even without Michigan’s final touchdown, this was a great game. Michigan could have pulled off a whopper of an upset, and even though they lost a heartbreaker, they should be proud of the game the played. Stepping back from the “Michigan should be winning these games more often” mindset that a lot of entitled fans have, this particular team was overmatched in every single phase of the game. Ohio State’s closest win this season was a 7-point victory against Wisconsin, and their Big Ten wins this year have averaged a score of 47-20. When I did my game preview, I felt that Ohio State was better at running the ball, throwing the ball, stopping the run, and stopping the pass . . . and the statistics backed that up. On top of those categories, the Buckeyes had momentum and a championship-winning head coach on their side. All those advantages added up to a one-point victory. Regardless of what teams 1 through 133 accomplished, team 134 should be proud of its effort and execution yesterday.

19Nov 2013
Uncategorized 27 comments

Michigan vs. Northwestern Awards

Jake Butt’s one-handed overtime touchdown (image via MGoBlog)

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Derrick Green. I thought Green (19 carries, 79 yards) looked pretty solid in his first career start. He will never be the fastest back around, nor will he make many people miss. But what he’s always done well is hit the hole hard. On Saturday night, he appeared to be less worried about finding the hole and less preoccupied with holding onto the football, and as long as he can do those things successfully without overthinking, he should be a good alternative to Fitzgerald Toussaint down the stretch. Those two should be splitting carries next week if Toussaint is healthy.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . nobody. I was happy with the wide receiver rotation, the tight end rotation, and the running backs. Even Graham Glasgow had an error-free day snapping the ball.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Jehu Chesson. Okay, okay, I’m not suggesting that he move to defense . . . but I have been very impressed with his physicality through ten games. Whether he’s blocking or on special teams coverage, the guy hits people and is a solid tackler. Brady Hoke mentioned at the beginning of the year that Chesson almost moved to cornerback at one point last year, and I would not mind having his clone in the defensive backfield.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Keith Heitzman. I was in support of Heitzman early in the year, but the more I’ve seen of all these guys, the rotation right now seems to be pretty good. With Jake Ryan back at SAM linebacker and Cam Gordon a very athletic backup there, Beyer looks to be a more natural fit at defensive end with Chris Wormley playing rotation snaps. Even when Heitzman’s broken hand is fully healed, I think he’s a third-stringer – but if he’s your third string defensive end, you’re in pretty good shape.

Play of the game . . . Brendan Gibbons’s game-tying 44-yard field goal to send the game to overtime. You know the story already, but here it is again: Jeremy Gallon was tackled with about 11 seconds remaining after a 16-yard reception. He promptly got up, got the ball to the official to place on the right hashmark, and the field goal unit ran onto the field. While the blockers got set, wide receiver Drew Dileo came sprinting in from the opposite side of the field after running his own route, tapped the ground, and took the snap from Jareth Glanda with barely 1 second left on the clock. Gibbons hurried through his steps to knock the ball through the uprights. Honorable mention goes to Jake Butt’s one-handed touchdown grab from Devin Gardner in the first overtime.

MVP of the game . . . James Ross III. I came really close to picking Gardner (24/43, 226 yards, 1 touchdown; 17 carries for 19 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 two-point conversion), but Gardner had an off day throwing the ball. He was undoubtedly a tough competitor after getting beaten up the previous two weeks and working through five sacks in this game alone, but Ross was a big reason Michigan was able to hold down Northwestern’s potent, multi-pronged rushing attack. Ross ended the game with 13 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 1 sack; his tackles were the most by a Wolverine in any game this season, and he now leads the team with 75 tackles