NOTE: I want to acknowledge that this post is coming out after Michigan’s first game. I usually get this post done prior to the season – for obvious reasons – but I was scrambling to finish the countdown and just couldn’t get it all wrapped up. Some of these predictions were already shared in the season countdown posts, but some were not addressed.
LEADING RUSHER I’m not sure how well this prediction holds up after watching game one against Fresno State, in which Kalel Mullings outgained Donovan Edwards. But I believed Edwards would be the lead back and put up a good chunk of yards. Prediction: Donovan Edwards, 1100 yards
Hit the jump for the rest of the prognostications.
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PWO QB FTW. Well, it was a mild surprise when it was announced that former walk-on Davis Warren was named the starting quarterback for the season opener over Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle. Orji had received most of the hype in the off-season, and Tuttle is the most experienced. But Tuttle has been dealing with injuries and soreness, so he wasn’t really an option. Rumors started coming out a couple days before the game that Warren would be the guy. He finished 15/25 for 118 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception and graded out as Michigan’s #4 offensive player (69.7 on Pro Football Focus). Overall, I thought Warren was mostly accurate. He overthrew a deep shot to Tyler Morris, and he underthrew Fredrick Morris on an open post route that could have been a touchdown but turned into an interception. There were a lot of checkdowns and short throws, probably by design to make things easy for Warren in his first start. But overall, I thought Warren looked composed and accurate.
Name: Josaiah Stewart Height: 6’1″ Weight: 245 lbs. High school: Everett (MA) Everett Position: Defensive end Class: Senior Jersey number: #5 Last year: I ranked Stewart #23 and said he would be a backup defensive end with 25 tackles and 4 sacks (LINK). He made 38 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 2 pass breakups, and 3 quarterback hurries. TTB Rating: N/A
Michigan was very lucky to land Stewart in the transfer portal from Coastal Carolina last off-season. The Wolverines needed some juice at pass rusher, and they were able to find it. It’s not often that players spurn a Michigan offer out of high school to become a Chanticleer, but Stewart was one who did it, so it makes sense that the Wolverines circled back to him after he had made a name for himself for Coastal. And it paid off with Stewart being a key piece of the national championship defense. After struggling a little bit against the run early in the season, he was able to steel himself, improved throughout the year, and was on the field for the game-sealing 4th down stop of Jalen Milroe in the Rose Bowl against Alabama.
This year Stewart will step into a bigger role now that Jaylen Harrell is playing for the Titans in the NFL. He has some quickness off the edge, but perhaps his best attribute is the power he possesses despite being undersized at just 6’1″ and 245 pounds. His leverage advantage and toughness have been a pleasant surprise, and with another year of technique and strength work under his belt, I expect him to be even better in 2024 than he was in 2023.
2023 Starters: OLB Jaylen Harrell, DT Mason Graham, DT Kris Jenkins, DE Braiden McGregor Losses: Reece Atteberry (transfer), Cam Goode (NFL), Harrell (NFL), McGregor (NFL) Returning players: Josaiah Stewart (Sr.), Kechaun Bennett (RS Jr.), Rayshaun Benny (RS Jr.), T.J. Guy (RS Jr.), Ike Iwunnah (RS Jr.), Tyler McLaurin (RS Jr.), Graham (Jr.), Grant (Jr.), Derrick Moore (Jr.), Alessandro Lorenzetti (RS So.), Breeon Ishmail (So.), Cameron Brandt (So.), Roderick Pierce (So.), Brooks Bahr (RS Fr.), Enow Etta (RS Fr.), Aymeric Koumba (RS Fr.) Newcomer: DE Dominic Nichols (Fr.) Projected starters: OLB Stewart, DT Graham, DT Grant, DE Moore
Michigan had an excellent defensive line in 2023, and it might have been the best position group on the national championship squad. The biggest differential in the national championship game against Washington was Michigan’s defensive line against the offensive line of the Huskies. Washington had a couple potential high draft picks in that group, and the Wolverines tossed them around like rag dolls.
Whereas Michigan had dynamic edge rushers in 2021 with David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson, the interior of the defensive line has been the strength the past two years. That should be the case once again in 2024, though I’m expecting a little more pass rush from the edge guys this season. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are entrenched as the starters at defensive tackle, and they should be the #1 defensive tackle combo in the nation. Grant is 6’3″ and 340 pounds but is fast enough to chase down Penn State running backs from behind. Graham is 6’4″, 310 and plays with both explosion and technique.
Michigan needs someone to emerge from the backup ranks, as starter Kris Jenkins, Jr. and frequently used backup Cam Goode have both moved on. Rayshaun Benny broke his foot late in the season, too, and will probably not be full strength until the fall. This spring look for Roderick Pierce to get some heavy rotation after playing a decent amount as the fourth nose tackle a year ago. Ike Iwunnah is a fourth-year player who has yet to see the field, so it’s tough to see him breaking out at this point, and Alessandro Lorenzetti is another player with decent size (6’5″, 301) who has yet to see the field. Michigan will either have to play one of those inexperienced older guys or give a shot to some young guys who really needed to bulk up from “strongside defensive end” vibes to playing tackle, such as Cameron Brandt or Brooks Bahr.
On the edges, Josaiah Stewart – who spent his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina – and Derrick Moore seem like very good bets to start. Stewart should step in capably for Harrell, and Moore should slide in smoothly for McGregor. They both rotated heavily last year and received a ton of playing time, and Stewart in particular showed a lot of growth throughout the year as he adjusted to playing in the Big Ten.
Once again, the big questions come from the backup ranks. Who will step up to rotate into the game frequently? And will anyone turn into an elite pass rusher? T.J. Guy is a fourth-year player with a good bit of experience, and he could be a solid backup option. He’s probably not a game-changer at this point, so the guys fans really want to see are the likes of Breeon Ishmail and Enow Etta. Both had excellent potential coming out of high school, and Etta was a highly valued recruit who was absolutely dominant in high school (20+ sacks in each of his final two seasons) but played against inferior competition.
Aymeric Koumba is a second-year Frenchman, and Dominic Nichols is an early enrollee freshman. Both have potential but it seems a little early for them to make much of an impact.
J.J. McCarthy, Jim Harbaugh, and Blake Corum (image via Mark Terrill/AP)
Michigan was the better team. I predicted a 27-24 loss to the Crimson Tide, so I wasn’t too far off on how the game would feel – I thought it would be a close game that came down to the end. But from the get-go, it seemed like Michigan had the superior team on a down-to-down basis. They sacked Jalen Milroe on four out of his first six dropbacks, and the offensive line was holding up fairly well. Alabama’s offense averaged 4.36 yards per play, while Michigan’s averaged 5.95.
