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PWO QB FTW. Well, it was a mild surprise when it was announced that former walk-on Davis Warren was named the starting quarterback for the season opener over Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle. Orji had received most of the hype in the off-season, and Tuttle is the most experienced. But Tuttle has been dealing with injuries and soreness, so he wasn’t really an option. Rumors started coming out a couple days before the game that Warren would be the guy. He finished 15/25 for 118 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception and graded out as Michigan’s #4 offensive player (69.7 on Pro Football Focus). Overall, I thought Warren was mostly accurate. He overthrew a deep shot to Tyler Morris, and he underthrew Fredrick Morris on an open post route that could have been a touchdown but turned into an interception. There were a lot of checkdowns and short throws, probably by design to make things easy for Warren in his first start. But overall, I thought Warren looked composed and accurate.
Hit the jump for more.
Alex Orji is certainly a good runner. Orji played just 9 snaps compared to Warren’s 53, and Orji did finish the day as the #5 offensive player (65.2). But he only had 2 passing attempts: a 3-yard completion for a TD to Donovan Edwards and a similar rollout attempt that he turfed in ugly fashion. He finished 1/2 passing for 3 yards and 1 touchdown, and with 5 rushing attempts for 32 yards. Sometimes the Fresno State defense inexplicably forgot about the QB who’s known as a freak athlete but hasn’t shown that he can pass. And the jury’s still out on whether he will be able to figure out the passing accuracy issue.
Is there a running back controversy? I guess I’m perhaps known for “hot takes” when it comes to running back roles, but again, it’s worth noting the discrepancy in production by Donovan Edwards and not-Donovan Edwards. Edwards got ranked as a top-50 player in NCAA ’25 and landed on the cover of the video game because of some big plays he produced against Ohio State in 2022 and Washington in 2023, but this was another forgettable performance on the ground. He finished with 11 carries for 27 yards (2.45 yards/carry) and looked less able than RB2 Kalel Mullings (15 carries, 92 yards, 6.1 yards/carry) to find the holes and make people miss. Mullings was the #3 offensive player (70.2) while Edwards finished at #12 (60.4).
At least Michigan has Colston Loveland. Other than one drop on a slant route, Loveland was outstanding, finishing as the #1 offensive player (89.4) with 8 catches for 87 yards and 1 touchdown. He also had some key blocks and his touchdown reception was key in helping Michigan separate from the Bulldogs in the second half. Opponents have a tough choice on how to cover Loveland, because he’s too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers. Michigan moved him all over the place with 27 snaps as an in-line tight end, 10 snaps in the slot, and 9 lined up as a wide receiver. The other options as receiving targets were pretty underwhelming, though that could have changed with more accurate deep balls to Moore and/or Morris. It was probably not a great sign that Michigan started walk-on receiver Peyton O’Leary, whom I have been “hyping up” as a potential rotation player for a few years . . . but the defending national champions shouldn’t be starting a walk-on at receiver. And at quarterback. Both of those things are a little bit alarming. O’Leary finished as the lowest graded offensive player for the game.
Offensive line mehness. Well, if anyone had lightly recruited former defensive lineman Dominick Giudice penciled in as the opening day starter earlier this off-season, kudos to you! Giudice was a defensive tackle earlier in his career before switching to offensive guard a couple seasons ago. I didn’t even know he was playing center until about two weeks into camp, and then he beat out Greg Crippen and Raheem Anderson. I have to think Anderson might have been dealing with an injury – even though I pegged him as a backup, anyway – but Crippen has been passed up by Olu Oluwatimi and Drake Nugent the past two years. Now he’s been passed by a former defensive tackle. Giudice did get yanked at one point and didn’t have a great game, but he was crushing people on occasion and finished #9 on offense (64.5) while Crippen’s nine snaps got him graded at #17 (55.2). I thought Myles Hinton played well at left tackle (#2 at 73.2) and redshirt freshman Evan Link (#8, 64.9) was adequate, but the interior didn’t get much movement at all and the PFF grades bore that out.
Defensive line awesomeness. On the flip side of that mediocre offensive line showing, the defensive line was great. I thought Rayshaun Benny had a great game, and that indeed turned out to be the case, according to PFF (#3 on defense, 79.8) and traditional stats (5 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack). Edge Josaiah Stewart (#1, 91.3) had 5 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. And defensive end Derrick Moore (#2, 90.9) was making a lot of things happen. Redshirt junior Ike Iwunnah finally made his Michigan debut after sitting on the bench for three years, and he got more snaps (4) than Trey Pierce (3), so maybe that shows the pecking order for the Cam Goode role for this season. For all the hype about T.J. Guy in the off-season, he finished #14 with a grade of 61.6 and had a couple stupid penalties, including a roughing the passer penalty that extended a late drive and then a facemask/horse collar tackle penalty. That doesn’t mean he’s not talented, but he needs to grow up quickly because Michigan doesn’t have a ton of capable players at the edge positions.
Jaishawn Barham is a physical specimen. Linebacker is always a tough position to grade out, because they have to play in space against the run and the pass. And a lot depends on how the guys up front get handled. Barham didn’t grade out that well (#18, 59.7) but he scared the crap out of 5’11” Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene a few times and finished with 2 tackles and 1 quarterback hurry. While the stats aren’t quite there, Michigan’s ability to threaten quarterbacks with his blitzes up the middle and/or off the edge should be helpful, especially when the backup edges need to rotate out. Stewart, Moore, and the defensive tackles are going to be able to get after the passer, but Michigan needs to find a couple complementary pass rushers.
I like the defensive backs. Michigan is in a good spot at defensive back, at least with the starters. Will Johnson got beaten a few times but had an 86-yard pick six to seal the game. I think he was being overly aggressive at times because of the competition, but that pick six will be played on highlight reel after highlight reel when he gets picked in the first round next spring. Jyaire Hill (#5, 71.6) and Aamir Hall (#12, 65.4) acquitted themselves pretty well at the other corner spot, and Hall’s bugaboo was his tackling (26.9 grade), which might improve as he adjusts to FBS competition. Ja’Den McBurrows (#23, 52.6) finished last on defense and allowed the touchdown pass, where he was just lined up way too far off the receiver and allowed too much space to catch and run. Michigan did that with Mike Sainristil at times and the defense was able to recover, but McBurrows isn’t Sainristil, who was an excellent tackler.
Dominic Zvada might be awesome. The real separation through the first three quarters of the game came from Arkansas State transfer kicker Dominic Zvada, who made 45-, 53-, and 55-yard field goals to put Michigan up 16-10 until Loveland and Johnson’s late touchdowns. If Zvada wasn’t hitting, that would have been a much scarier game. That was an incredible debut. I ranked Zvada #10 in the season countdown because I think he might keep Michigan’s season afloat at times.
What does this all mean for Michigan? It’s just one week, but we can start to put some of the pieces together. Players are going to improve, and some are going to get benched. The quarterback position is the most important, and there’s not much from Saturday night to make us think that’s ever going to be a strength in 2024. I do think it’s feasible that Warren ends up as a solid game manager type, and Orji is a solid change-of-pace/Wildcat QB. We’ve all heard the mantra “If you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have a quarterback” but I think two players with distinct roles can work to an extent. I would be very much against a team using two quarterbacks with similar skill sets, but using Warren as the “every down” QB who can hand off, pass, and move in the pocket and then Orji as the gadget/short yardage/goal line guy can work. Ultimately, I think the offense is going to limit the ceiling of this 2024 team, though. There are some good pieces like Loveland, Edwards, and Mullings, but when O’Leary, FCS transfer C.J. Charleston, and redshirt freshman Kendrick Bell – a position-switcher from quarterback – are playing lots of snaps, there’s just a dearth of national championship-caliber talent.
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