Michigan 42, Northwestern 24

Tag: Kenny Demens


9Oct 2011
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Michigan 42, Northwestern 24

Is it just me or does Michael Shaw look like a prototypical football player?  Here he scores
on a 2-yard touchdown run.  (Image via MGoBlue.com)

This first bullet almost called for the backup QB.  Not permanently, of course.  But if Denard Robinson continued in the second half the way he played in the first half, I would have been asking for Devin Gardner to get a shot.  Gardner has played well in his increasing role, and Robinson threw three horrible interceptions in the first half.  Robinson’s first half looked like this: 10/18 passing, 178 yards, 2 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and several of those completions were bad throws where his receivers saved him (the bomb to Junior Hemingway, the TD to Steve Watson, etc.).  In the second half, Robinson redeemed himself on 7/8 passing for 159 yards with zero touchdowns and, most importantly, zero picks.

Mike Shaw provided a little bit of a spark.  Neither of Michigan’s first two running backs had much of a day.   Fitzgerald Toussaint had 14 carries for 25 yards and couldn’t punch the ball in on two goal line opportunities.  Vincent Smith had 3 carries for 8 yards.  It looked to me like Shaw’s speed was too much for the Northwestern defense.  He beat the Wildcats to the edge a couple times, rushing 6 times for 25 yards and 1 touchdown, plus making 1 reception for 12 yards.  I was impressed with the Wildcats’ rush defense and tackling.

That’s not the Dan Persa I remember.  I think Michigan got a little lucky that Persa still has his Achilles on his mind.  It seemed like there were a few opportunities for Persa to run where he decided to throw the ball instead.  He completed 32/44 passes, but a lot of those were bubble screens that were essentially sweep plays and easy completions.  Other than one 39-yard bomb over Blake Countess, the Wolverines kept everything in front of them.

Kenny Demens had his best game of the year.  Demens hasn’t been as productive this year as I expected, but he’s still been a solid player.  This game was his best, though.  He had 10 tackles, including a sack, and did a good job of chasing down wide receivers and crossing routes in space.  A lot of middle linebackers (Obi Ezeh, for example) would have been left in the dust or would have missed the tackle on those smaller players, but Demens is so strong that if he gets his hands on someone, that person is going to the ground.

Michigan needs to review the option.  I was somewhat surprised that Northwestern didn’t run more option.  They had quite a bit of success with it in the first half, and I thought Michigan did a poor job of defending it.  They didn’t have guys in position to make plays, they were tentative when they got there (Jake Ryan), or they just failed to square their shoulders and make the tackle (Carvin Johnson).  The bubble screen was effective and it’s a safer play, so maybe that’s why the Wildcats didn’t run the option as much.

Congrats to Steve Watson.  Watson stuck around for five years, played tight end, outside linebacker, defensive end, and now tight end again . . . and finally caught his first collegiate pass on a 9-yard scoring play where he adjusted well and got his hands underneath the ball on a poor throw from Robinson.  That had to be exciting for him.

The defensive line is improving.  I wish William Campbell weren’t already a junior, because that kid is close to turning into a player.  He’s going to have only one year as a starter at Michigan, despite the fact that he was totally unneeded in 2009 and Rich Rodriguez wasted him in 2010, too, by burning his eligibility at defensive tackle and then flipping him to guard halfway through the year.  Overall, the defensive line had 14 tackles and 2 sacks.

It’s horn-tootin’ time.  Okay, not really.  My predictions from Friday weren’t close to being 100% accurate, but I did say that Persa would have 325 total yards (he had 326) and that the final score would be 38-24 (it was 42-24).  I keep forgetting to review my predictions in these wrap-up posts, so here’s where I do that.  On the other hand, Denard didn’t carry the ball 12 times (more like 25), Jeremy Gallon didn’t score on special teams (but he did on offense!), and Northwestern’s running backs didn’t average 2.5 yards a carry (more like 5.5).  Also, there’s a picture of Denise Milani wearing a tight dress, so I think that was a good move on my part, too.

I typically like Pat Fitzgerald, but . . . he seemed like a bit of a weirdo during his halftime interview with Jeannine Edwards.  He was all rubbing his head and using strange vocal inflections.  I guess that’s what adrenaline does to some people, but he seemed a little high strung.

Taylor Lewan false started but nobody called it.  Lewan has been penalty-free so far this year, I believe, but he should have been flagged for jumping the snap.  He probably won’t be so lucky next time, and I’m guessing Michigan State’s coaches will alert the refs to look for that next week; Lewan did it a bunch last year, too.

Speaking of the referees . . . Michigan got lucky a few times on Saturday night.  Brandin Hawthorne’s interception looked like an incomplete pass to me (his hands were under it, but I thought the ball clearly moved when the nose hit the ground), Jeremy Ebert’s fumble was about as close as it gets (I think it was a fumble but probably wouldn’t have been overturned if he had been called down in the first place), and Jordan Kovacs probably should have been called for a facemask (his right hand was okay, but it looked like his left hand pulled on the bottom bar).  Of course, Northwestern was holding the s*** out of Michigan’s cornerbacks and safeties on those bubble screens, so maybe the penalties evened out.

1Sep 2011
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2011 Season Predictions

Hooray for middle linebackers who play like middle linebackers!



Well, it’s always fun to take a look back and see how my predictions panned out, so here’s a link to my 2010 Season Predictions.

And now for this year’s picks:


Leading Rusher
I’m going to rescind my earlier faith in Michael Cox and guess that Michael Shaw will be the Wolverines’ leading running back rusher in 2011.  Denard Robinson would be the obvious pick if Rich Rodriguez were still coaching, but Brady Hoke wants Robinson to run less.  It’s basically a crapshoot with Thomas Rawls, Michael Cox, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and Shaw all vying for the starting RB role.  Between injuries Shaw will run for 700 yards and a couple other guys will have a few hundred apiece . . . but Denard should take the lead by a fairly small margin.
Prediction: Denard Robinson, 900 yards

Leading Receiver
The change in offense throws a wrench into my guess here, too.  I think Roy Roundtree is a very good receiver, but I also think he’s going to struggle more now that he’s been moved from the slot to the outside.  The only other serious threat to lead the team is Junior Hemingway, who might be derailed by injury like usual.  I guess I’ll go with Hemingway and pray he stays healthy.
Prediction: Junior Hemingway, 1000 yards

Leading Tackler
I’m pretty confident that middle linebacker Kenny Demens will lead the team in tackles, provided his shoulder injury doesn’t flare up again.  He had 82 last season and finished third on the team, despite only starting for half the year.  Safety Jordan Kovacs was second last year with 116 total tackles, but I think – and hope – that those numbers will drop significantly.
Prediction: Kenny Demens, 100 tackles

Leading Sacker
Considering that Michigan’s sack totals have dropped to 41% of what they were in 2006, I have to think that the new defensive scheme will cause at least a small jump.  Of the defensive linemen and linebackers who graduated last year (Greg Banks, Renaldo Sagesse, Adam Patterson, Jonas Mouton, Obi Ezeh), none were great pass rushers.  The best rushers return (Ryan Van Bergen with 9 career sacks, Mike Martin with 6.5, and Craig Roh with 2.5) with some youthful potential in the forms of redshirt freshman Jake Ryan, sophomore Jibreel Black, and true freshman Frank Clark.  With all those blitzers and rushers potentially getting to the quarterback, weakside end Craig Roh should lead the team in sacks. 
Prediction: Craig Roh, 7 sacks

Leading Interceptor
Last year’s interception leaders were cornerback James Rogers (since graduated) and free safety-turned-linebacker Cameron Gordon.  So those two are out, since linebackers rarely lead teams in interceptions.  That leaves us with a crew of defensive backs who have a combined four interceptions (Jordan Kovacs has 3, J.T. Floyd has 1).  Cornerbacks Troy Woolfolk and Courtney Avery have shown an ability to cover but not make big plays, and Floyd . . . well . . . just doesn’t look like a very good cornerback.  It looks like Thomas Gordon will start at strong safety and he hasn’t had a chance to show his pass coverage abilities yet since he played linebacker last year.  So it looks like Jordan Kovacs is my man.
Prediction: Jordan Kovacs, 3 interceptions

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Denard Robinson, Mike Martin

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Prediction: Michael Shaw

Breakout Offensive Player
This is a tough choice because almost every offensive starter returns.  Kevin Koger should see a significant leap in production, but he’ll be a four-year starter.  I have a hard time picking a four-year starter as a breakout player.  So I’m going to go with Jeremy Gallon.  Gallon is #2 on the depth chart at wide receiver and should see some time in the slot in three- and four-wide sets.  He’s quick, fast, and thickly built, and he could be an X-factor if he can hold onto the ball (which he couldn’t do last year as a kick/punt returner).
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon

Breakout Defensive Player
I don’t foresee anyone on Michigan’s defense going from an unknown to an All-American, so “breakout” here has to be looked at from a small-scale perspective.  A few days ago, I picked freshman linebacker Desmond Morgan as a potential breakout player, since he’s a frosh and will play at some point this season.  Anybody who starts at weakside linebacker will be a breakout player, really, since all the options are young and inexperienced.  Mike Jones is #1 on the depth chart, although I don’t really think he’s a playmaker.  I think I’ll go with cornerback Courtney Avery.  Avery had a bad year last season, not because he’s a bad athlete but because he wasn’t ready to play.  He should have redshirted and taken a year to add some size.  Now he’s a sophomore with playing experience and he might be the best cover corner on the roster, although true freshman Blake Countess is going to be a good one, too.
Prediction: Courtney Avery

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Keep in mind that this is my  most disappointing offensive player, as in the one that I think will fall short of my previous expectations.  There was a time when I thought Roy Roundtree was headed toward wearing the #1 jersey.  On top of being a very good slot receiver, he was a good blocker and a playmaker after the catch.  He started to fall off toward the end of last season when he began dropping too many passes, particularly against Wisconsin and Ohio State.  And while he did have over 900 yards receiving last year, many of those receptions came in the middle of the field, an area that he won’t roam as often from his new outside receiver position.  He should start this fall and put up decent numbers, but I don’t know if the #1 jersey is in his future anymore.
Prediction: Roy Roundtree

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Just like last year, it’s tough to pick someone who’s going to be disappointing, because not much is expected from most of the guys on this unit.  The bar has been lowered so much that it’s almost impossible for anyone to limbo underneath it.  With that caveat aside, I think Troy Woolfolk is going to disappoint some people a little bit.  Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and many Michigan fans hope that Woolfolk will be Michigan’s Savior in the Secondary this season.  He was a solid free safety and cornerback in 2009 before dislocating his ankle prior to the 2010 season, which might have been fortuitous since he preserved his last year of eligibility to play under a coach who actually knows what he’s doing.  But Woolfolk has zero interceptions in his career, and while he’s a solid tackler with excellent speed, I doubt he’ll suddenly be causing turnover after turnover.  I expect continued solid play in the coming months, but nothing spectacular.
Prediction: Troy Woolfolk

The Big Finish

Sept. 3 vs. Western Michigan: WIN.  Michigan’s offense ought to be too good for Western Michigan to handle.  Denard Robinson torched them in 2009 for one of his best career highlights, and he’ll probably make some more highlights.  MAC teams just can’t handle his speed.

Sept. 10 vs. Notre Dame: LOSS.  Notre Dame should have beaten Michigan in 2010, if not for quarterback Dayne Crist getting injured.  This year the Fighting Irish should be better.

Sept. 17 vs. Eastern Michigan: WIN.  The Screaming Eagles are horrible at football.

Sept. 24 vs. San Diego State: WIN.  I think this will be a pretty easy win.  SDSU lost a couple of their top receivers for the year due to injury.  Otherwise, I thought it was going to be a close win.

Oct. 1 vs. Minnesota: WIN.  The Golden Gophers are just a steap ahead of Eastern Michigan.

Oct. 8 at Northwestern: WIN.  The Wildcats have a solid offense that will put up some points, but I have confidence that defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will have some better ideas on how to stop the spread than his predecessors.

Oct. 15 at Michigan State: WIN.  It’s about time that Michigan gets another victory against the Spartans, who got lucky repeatedly in the 2010 season.  I can’t see Hoke and Mattison losing to MSU in year one.

Oct. 29 vs. Purdue: WIN.  Purdue is bad, and their starting quarterback from last year is out due to an ACL tear.

Nov. 5 at Iowa: LOSS.  Iowa is going to be good this year, unfortunately.  They always seem to play Michigan tough, and their defense is solid.  If this game were in Ann Arbor, I’d pick the Wolverines . . . but it’s an away game.

Nov. 12 at Illinois: WIN. Illinois lost a couple good players in their defensive front seven, and the couple good players left shouldn’t be enough to beat the Wolverines.

Nov. 19 vs. Nebraska: LOSS.  Nebraska’s too good on both sides of the ball for Michigan to handle.  They might win the Big Ten in their first season.

Nov. 26 vs. Ohio State: LOSS.  I wish I could predict a Michigan victory here, but Ohio State has been so dominant in recent years that I can’t see the Wolverines pulling out a victory.  All of OSU’s suspended players will be back and warmed up for several weeks before coming to Ann Arbor.

Final Record: 8-4

28Aug 2011
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2011 Countdown: #3 Kenny Demens

Kenny Demens

Name: Kenny Demens
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 248 lbs.
High school: Detroit Country Day School in Oak Park, MI
Position: Middle linebacker
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #25
Last year: I ranked Demens #35 and said he’d be the backup MIKE.  He started the final seven games of the year and finished with 82 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 pass breakup.

Demens was a pleasant surprise in 2010.  After much practice hype, he actually lived up to it . . . belatedly.  Despite a frustrating lack of production and progression from a returning starter in Obi Ezeh, Demens sat on the bench for the first several games and watched Ezeh give away all kinds of yardage.  He stepped into the starting lineup against Iowa in the seventh game of the season and never looked back, making 71 tackles in his seven starts (Ezeh had 42 tackles in his 7 starts).  He was a hard-hitting, run-stuffing tackling machine who made every Michigan fan giddy, unless it was a pass.  The 248 pounder, who has put on four lbs. since last season, seemed a little bit stiff and unaware in pass coverage, things which should improve with experience.

Demens will no longer have to battle an undeserving upperclassman for the starting middle linebacker job, which means he looks like the de facto starter at MIKE.  As a 4-3 middle linebacker with the weakside end and the strongside linebacker funneling running backs to the middle of the field, Demens should put up some excellent numbers this fall.  Defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, previously of the Baltimore Ravens, had a Pro Bowl middle linebacker in the form of Ray Lewis.  If you take a look at measurements of both Demens and Lewis, both play the same position, both are 6’1″, and they’re within two pounds of each other (Lewis is 250).  Certainly I’m not saying that Demens is the second coming of Ray Lewis, but Demens flashed the ability to stop the run like the former Miami Hurricane by playing downhill and delivering a solid blow to the ballcarrier when he arrived.  For the first time in a few years, Wolverines fans have a reason to be optimistic about their middle linebacker.

Prediction: Starting middle linebacker; 100 tackles

19Aug 2011
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Poll Results: Who will be Michigan’s top draft pick in 2012?

Mike Martin eats Vincent Smith a midget

DT Mike Martin: 79%
C David Molk: 7%
QB Denard Robinson: 2%
WR Junior Hemingway: 2%
TE Kevin Koger/WR Roy Roundtree (tie): 1%
OG Patrick Omameh: 1%
LB Kenny Demens: 0%
CB Troy Woolfolk: 0%
WR Darryl Stonum: 0%
DE Ryan Van Bergen: 0%
Other: 0%

In a landslide victory for exactly whom I expected to win this poll, senior Mike Martin pulled in nearly 4 out of 5 votes.  Martin is a 6’2″, 304 lb. nose tackle with surprising quickness.  He might be undersized for playing nose tackle at the next level, which means he’ll likely have to be drafted by a 4-3 team with a need for a 3-tech defensive tackle.  In fact, Martin should probably be playing 3-tech in college, except Michigan has no other viable options at the nose tackle position.  For his career he has 108 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, and 6.5 sacks.

Fifth year senior David Molk took second place comfortably.  Molk is a 6’2″, 286 lb. center who will be entering his fourth season as a starter.  Despite being slightly undersized to be an extremely valuable commodity at the next level, he has consistently been mentioned as the strongest player on the team and was a first team All-Big Ten selection in 2010.  Molk has the quickness, leverage, and intelligence to do well at the college level, but he’ll likely have to add bulk in order to have a chance in the NFL.

Junior quarterback Denard Robinson barely beat out wide receiver Junior Hemingway for the third spot.  Robinson is a 6’0″, 195 lb. quarterback who set the NCAA record last year for the most rushing yards in a season by a QB.  He has struggled as a passer at times and with his lack of height, he could very well have to change positions to play at the next level.  I doubt he will leave early for the NFL when his future position is such a huge question mark.  Last season Robinson threw for 2,570 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 11 touchdowns.  He also had 1.702 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns on the ground.

Hemingway is a 6’1″, 222 lb. fifth year senior wide receiver.  Due to injuries and illness, he has never played a full season of football.  However, last year was his best statistical season when he grabbed 32 passes for 593 yards (18.5 yards per catch) and 4 touchdowns.  Hemingway has demonstrated good hands and leaping ability, and with his strength, he can often outmuscle cornerbacks for the ball.  He has only mediocre speed, though, and his production thus far has been mediocre.

Senior tight end Kevin Koger and redshirt junior wide receiver Roy Roundtree tied for the fifth spot.  Koger is a 6’4″, 258-pounder with excellent athleticism who has been underused for the past few seasons in Rich Rodriguez’s offense.  He has dropped some passes at times, but he has the speed, leaping ability, and size to be a huge mismatch for anyone willing and able to get him the ball.  The new coaching staff will almost certainly use him as a receiver more often than the old one.  In three years as a starter, he has averaged 12 receptions, 170.7 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns per season.

Roundtree stands 6’0″ and only 177 lbs.  Despite a lack of elite size and speed, he set a school record for receiving yards in one game with 246 against Illinois last season.  He also has four career receptions of 74+ yards.  No other player in Michigan history  has more than one reception of over 70 yards.  Still his lack of impressive measurables may cause him not to be a high draft pick, even if he plays out his eligibility and enters the 2013 NFL Draft.

Omameh is a 6’4″, 299 lb. offensive guard.  He has started the last 16 games Michigan has played and projects as the starting right guard in 2011, as well.  He moves well and gets to the second level with regularity, which suits the zone running game perfectly.  He’s also an above average pass blocker.  As just a redshirt junior, however, it would be somewhat of a surprise to see him enter the draft in 2012.  He’s more likely to be a 2013 entrant.

Demens is a 6’1″, 248 lb. middle linebacker who burst onto the scene in 2010.  Despite starting only seven games, he finished the season with 82 tackles and led the Wolverines in tackles per start.  Known as a thumping run stuffer, he needs to work on recognizing pass routes and getting to his pass drops.  He already has the size to play in the NFL and could play middle linebacker in a 4-3 or inside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.  He might wait to enter the NFL Draft until 2013, since he has one year of eligibility remaining beyond 2011.

Woolfolk is 6’0″ tall and 191 lbs.  He missed his true senior season in 2010 due to an ankle dislocation, but started all 12 games in 2009, half at safety and half at cornerback.  With a couple exceptions, he played well at safety and improved when he moved back to cornerback for the second half of the year.  He has not proven to be a huge playmaker in his career (61 tackles, 3 pass breakups in three years), but other teams all but completely avoided throwing in his direction when he started at corner opposite current Pittsburgh Steeler Donovan Warren.  Woolfolk ran indoor track during his first few seasons on campus and has blazing makeup speed to go along with good size for the position.  Teams usually don’t spend high draft picks on guys who have zero career interceptions, so turning out big plays this fall will be important if Woolfolk wants a shot at the next level.

Stonum is a 6’2″, 195 lb. wideout whose lack of impressive statistics and keen ability to break the law make him extremely unlikely to be selected in the 2012 NFL Draft.  For one thing, he was suspended for the 2011 season and will take a redshirt, hoping to return in 2012.  For another thing, his best statistical season came in 2010, when he had 49 receptions for 633 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Those aren’t bad numbers, but his performance wasn’t impressive enough to make a team ignore his person issues.  Stonum also brings some potential value as a kick returner, since he returned 39 kickoffs for 1,001 yards (25.7 yards/attempt), including a 94-yard TD against Notre Dame in 2009.

The player with the least amount of votes was defensive end Ryan Van Bergen, a 6’6″, 288 lb. defensive end.  Van Bergen has played both defensive end and defensive tackle in his career, totaling 90 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, 9 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and 6 pass breakups in his career.  This season he’s bigger than he has ever been before, but Van Bergen works hard and has squeezed out just about every ounce of effort he can with his limited physical skills.  Some players make it to the NFL with superior athleticism, and some make it with a combination of athleticism and talent.  Not many make it that far on sheer determination.  Van Bergen could play at the next level as a defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, but his chances are slim.

The “Other” category received just one vote, and I’d be interested to know which player that voter had in mind.

23Jun 2011
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Poll Results: Michigan’s leading tackler in 2011?

Kenny Demens (#25) wraps up the ballcarrier with help from safeties Ray Vinopal and Jordan Kovacs (#32).
Image via MichiganDaily.com

The results:

Kenny Demens, MLB: 64%
Cam Gordon, SLB: 15%
Jordan Kovacs, S: 7%
Jake Ryan, SLB: 6%
Marell Evans, LB: 2%
Carvin Johnson, S: 1%
Other: 1%

Well, Demens wins the poll in a landslide victory.  As the middle linebacker and the most likely starter to retain his position, he’s probably a good choice.  Demens was the third-leading tackler in 2010, accounting for 82 total stops in just 7 starts.  That’s 11.7 tackles per start, which admittedly isn’t a perfect measurement, since he did play a backup role to Obi Ezeh before usurping the MLB job.  Demens was my hoice.

I’m a little surprised that Cam Gordon finished #2 in the voting.  He was the fourth-leading tackler in 2010, with 77 total tackles.  He’s heavier than the 207 lbs. at which he played last season, but it might be a bit of a stretch to expect him to be a force at SAM for the upcoming year.  He’s going to face a stiff challenge from the larger redshirt freshman Jake Ryan, who earned rave reviews in the spring and had a solid spring game.  They might split the snaps there.

Safety Jordan Kovacs is the leading returning tackler (he finished just one tackle behind departed senior linebacker Jonas Mouton, 117 to 116).  Kovacs started 13 games last season, which gave him 8.9 tackles per start.  He has touted sophomore safety Marvin Robinson pushing him for playing time, but I would expect the two-year starter to retain his job, at least for the beginning of the season.  His overall number of tackles will almost certainly drop, though, due to a [hopefully] improved defense that will get off the field a little quicker.

Strongside ‘backer Jake Ryan finishes #4.  He had zero tackles last year, mostly because he watched from the sidelines.  I think he’ll be a force in stopping the run, but expecting a first-year starter and redshirt freshman to lead the team in tackles is a bit of a stretch for me, especially if he and Gordon are neck-and-neck for the job.

Fifth year senior Marell Evans picked up only a few votes, which was slightly surprising to me.  Evans started at MLB this spring when Demens had shoulder surgery, and he’s my bet to be the starting weakside linebacker on September 3, provided Demens is back at full strength.  Evans only has 4 tackles and half a sack in his college career, which consists of one start back in 2008 and a bunch of special teams action.  He transferred to Hampton after the 2008 season and didn’t see the field for the past two years, but he looked solid during spring practices.

Carvin Johnson, the other projected safety, got a few votes, too.  Johnson was the 16th-leading tackler in 2010 while starting only three games due to injury.  He had an impressive spring, though, looking comfortable in the new defense and picking off a couple passes in the spring game.

I would be interested to hear which player(s) were the reason for “Other” votes, since defensive linemen and cornerbacks rarely lead teams in tackles.  The only other possibilities seem to be safety Marvin Robinson or weakside linebacker Mike Jones, both of whom I project as backups.