Tag: Rivals rankings

Rivals 100 for 2016 updated

Erik Swenson

Rivals released the new top 100 list at noon today (LINK). Here’s what it looked like back in February (LINK). Michigan’s lone representative on the list, Erik Swenson, dropped from #82 to #93. Here are Michigan’s other offerees on the list:

5-stars:
1. Dexter Lawrence – DT – North Carolina
2. Shea Patterson – QB – Louisiana (Ole Miss)
3. Marlon Davidson – DE – Alabama
4. Jacob Eason – QB – Washington (Georgia)
5. Nate Craig-Myers – WR – Florida
6. Rashan Gary – DT – New Jersey
7. Demetris Robertson – ATH – Georgia
8. Mique Juarez – LB – California (USC)
9. Greg Little – OT – Texas (Texas A&M)
11. Daelin Hayes – LB – Michigan (USC)
12. Levonta Taylor – CB – Virginia (Florida State)
13. Ben Davis – LB – Alabama
14. Lyndell Wilson – LB – Alabama
15. Malik Henry – QB – Florida (Florida State)
18. Rahshaun Smith – DE – Maryland (Clemson)
19. Caleb Kelly – LB – California
22. Kareem Walker – RB – New Jersey (Ohio State)
24. Jonah Williams – OT – California (Alabama)

4-stars:
27. K.J. Costello – QB – California (Stanford)
29. Eli Stove – WR – Florida (Auburn)
30. Brandon Jones – S – Texas
31. Tommy Kraemer – OT – Ohio (Notre Dame)
33. Curtis Robinson – LB – California (Stanford)
34. Isaac Nauta – TE – Georgia (Florida State)
36. Isaac Bruce – WR – Florida (Miami)
37. Mecole Hardman – ATH – Georgia
43. Kaden Smith – TE – Texas (Stanford)
47. Janarius Robinson – DE – Florida (Florida State)
48. Landon Dickerson – OT – North Carolina
49. Ben Bredeson – OT – Wisconsin
51. Ahmir Mitchell – WR – New Jersey
52. Ben Cleveland – OG – Georgia (Georgia)
53. Deontay Anderson – S – Texas
54. Jake Hausmann – TE – Ohio (Ohio State)
55. Miles Sanders – RB – Pennsylvania (Penn State)
57. Devin Duvernay – WR – Texas
60. Byron Murphy – CB – Arizona
62. Erick Fowler – LB – Texas
63. Naseir Upshur – TE – Pennsylvania
65. Ed Oliver – DT – Texas (Houston)
67. Willie Allen – OT – Louisiana
69. Josh King – DE – Illinois
70. Theo Howard – WR – California (Oregon)
71. Scott Bracey – WR – Virginia (Duke)
74. Richard Merritt – OG – Washington, DC
75. Trayvon Mullen – CB – Florida
76. Lokeni Toailoa – LB – California (UCLA)
79. Donnie Corley – WR – Michigan
82. Dylan Crawford – WR – California
83. Dwayne Haskins – QB – Maryland (Maryland)
84. T.J. Chase – WR – Florida (Clemson)
85. Michael Menet – OT – Pennsylvania (Penn State)
86. Kendell Jones – DT – Texas (Alabama)
87. Frank Martin – OT – California (USC)
91. Jack Jones – ATH – California
93. Erik Swenson – OT – Illinois (Michigan)
95. Devin White – ATH – Louisiana
96. Jarrett Guarantano – QB – New Jersey (Tennessee)
97. Trevon Sidney – WR – California
98. Marquill Osborne – CB – North Carolina (Tennessee)

Comparing the Recruiting Sites: Star Ratings for 2015 First Round NFL Draft Picks

Marcus Mariota

Questions often get raised about which recruiting site is the most accurate. There might be many ways to calculate, and some of them are beyond the scope of this here blog. But one way to analyze recruiting rankings is by looking at the star ratings of each first round draft pick, which I have done below. Each of the four recruiting sites was mined, although admittedly, 247 Sports is at a bit of a disadvantage since they are the newest site; fifth year seniors were not evaluated by 247 Sports coming out of high school.

1. Jameis Winston – QB – Florida State (Buccaneers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4

2. Marcus Mariota – QB – Oregon (Titans)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

3. Dante Fowler, Jr. – OLB/DE – Florida (Jaguars)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

Hit the jump for the star ratings of the other 29 first-rounders.

4. Amari Cooper – WR – Alabama (Raiders)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

5. Brandon Scherff – OT – Iowa (Redskins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Not ranked

6. Leonard Williams – DE – USC (Jets)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4

7. Kevin White – WR – West Virginia (Bears)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 3

8. Vic Beasley – OLB/DE – Clemson (Falcons)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

9. Ereck Flowers – OG – Miami (Giants)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

10. Todd Gurley – RB – Georgia (Rams)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

11. Trae Waynes – CB – Michigan State (Vikings)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 2

12. Danny Shelton – DT – Washington (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

13. Andrus Peat – OT – Stanford (Saints)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

14. DeVante Parker – WR – Louisville (Dolphins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3

15. Melvin Gordon – RB – Wisconsin (Chargers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

16. Kevin Johnson – CB – Wake Forest (Texans)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

17. Arik Armstead – DE – Oregon (49ers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

18. Marcus Peters – CB – Washington (Chiefs)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

19. Cameron Erving – C – Florida State (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

20. Nelson Agholor – WR – USC (Eagles)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

21. Cedric Ogbuehi – OT – Texas A&M (Bengals)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

22. Alvin “Bud” Dupree – DE – Kentucky (Steelers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

23. Shane Ray – DE – Missouri (Broncos)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3

24. D.J. Humphries – OT – Florida (Cardinals)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

25. Shaq Thompson – LB – Washington (Panthers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

26. Breshad Perriman – WR – Central Florida (Ravens)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 2

27. Byron Jones – CB – Connecticut (Cowboys)
ESPN: Unranked
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: Unranked

28. Laken Tomlinson – OG – Duke (Lions)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

29. Phillip Dorsett – WR – Miami (Colts)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

30. Damarious Randall – S – Arizona State (Packers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

31. Stephone Anthony – LB – Clemson (Saints)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

32. Malcolm Brown – DT – Texas (Patriots)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

CONCLUSIONS
The average star rating of a first round pick for each recruiting site:

1. Scout: 3.65625
2. Rivals: 3.59375
3. ESPN: 3.3125
4. 247 Sports: 3.09375*

The average rating for 247 Sports is thrown off by so many unranked prospects. Six prospects were not ranked by 247 while they were still getting their feet under them. ESPN, Rivals, and Scout have no excuse since they have been around for a longer time period. Interestingly, if those six prospects are removed and you average the ratings of the other 26 players chosen, the average ranking jumps to 3.807, easily the highest of the four. That’s not a fair comparison because they could have completely biffed on the other six prospects, but it’s an indication that 247’s ratings should be taken seriously. In my opinion – and not only because of this study – the 247 Sports site is surpassing its counterparts.

Another weakness is this type of study is the number of 5-star ratings given. Typically, Scout gives out 40+ of those ratings, whereas ESPN gives out only 10-20. Rivals and 247 Sports give out roughly enough to fill out the first round of an NFL draft (somewhere around 30). This gives Scout somewhat of an advantage in an analysis like this, and it gives ESPN a disadvantage.

Scout’s biggest goof seems to be Melvin Gordon, who was a 4-star to two other sites and was going to Wisconsin. Any running back headed to Wisconsin has a good chance of being a mighty fine player, but the signs were there for Gordon and Scout missed them. However, Scout did label Leonard Williams a 5-star prospect when no one else did, and they also had DeVante Parker as a 4-star when others saw him as a 3-star.

Rivals did well to name Danny Shelton a 4-star (everyone else had him as a 3-star) and they were the only ones to give Nelson Agholor a 5-star rating (seriously, how did everyone else miss out on that?). Overall, Rivals seemed to be the most consistent with the fewest outliers.

For being such a large outlet, ESPN misses on too many players. Looking just at the top ten – the cream of the crop – they ranked Winston, Mariota, Fowler, and Flowers lower than any of their counterparts, aside from Winston’s 4-star ranking to fledgling 247 Sports. They also failed to even evaluate Byron Jones.

Overall, what can we take away? The people running 247 Sports seem to know what they’re doing, and it will be interesting to see the results as they get more experience, widen their net, and increase the sample size. Scout and Rivals both do a pretty good job and are pretty consistent without too many outliers. ESPN is consistently the least reliable source, both in up-to-date information and ability to evaluate players.

(On a side note, I probably spent more time on Scout’s site than ever before while looking up these rankings. I must say that even though they revamped their site in the last year, that is still absolutely the least navigable site there is. I have never had a subscription to Scout and use it the least, and I cannot understand why anyone would tolerate paying money to deal with that. It boggles the mind to think that such a large website could have such terrible programming.)

Rivals 100 to Watch for 2017

Detroit (MI) Cass Tech wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones

Rivals released their early top 100 prospects to watch for 2017 (LINK); while the players are not listed numerically, they have been given star ratings. Below is a list of the players Michigan has offered:

5-stars:
Calvin Ashley – OT – Florida
Najee Harris – RB – California
Darnay Holmes – CB – California
Devon Hunter – S – Virginia
Josh Myers – OT – Ohio (Ohio State)

4-stars:
A.J. Epenesa – DE – Illinois
Darnell Ewell – OT – Virginia
Paris Ford – ATH – Pennsylvania
Anthony Hines – LB – Texas
Dylan McCaffrey – QB – Colorado
Jake Moretti – OT – Colorado
Jeffrey Okudah – ATH – Texas
Donovan Peoples-Jones – WR – Michigan
Stanford Samuels III – ATH – Florida
Jeff Thomas – WR – Illinois
Shaun Wade – CB – Florida (Ohio State)
Jamyest Williams – ATH – Georgia
Marcus Williamson – CB – Ohio

Rivals 250 for 2016 updated

Dele’ Harding is the #228 player in the country (image via 247Sports.com)

Rivals released their updated top 250 player list for 2016 (LINK). I updated the top 100 prospects yesterday (LINK). Here’s what it looked like back in December (LINK). Michigan commit Dele’ Harding dropped from #215 to #228.

Here are the rest of Michigan’s offerees on the list:

4-stars:
102. Jauan Williams – OT – Washington, D.C.
106. Theo Howard – WR – California
109. Damar Hamlin – CB – Pennsylvania
110. Devin Asiasi – TE – California
113. Elijah Holyfield – RB – Georgia
119. Cameron Chambers – WR – New Jersey (Michigan State)
120. Darrian Franklin – LB – California
124. Terrance Davis – OG – Maryland
134. Joseph Jackson – DE – Florida (Miami)
135. J.P. Urquidez – OT – Maryland
136. Devin Bush, Jr. – LB – Florida
137. Josh Imatorbhebhe – WR – Georgia
138. Binjimen Victor – WR – Florida
149. Steffon McKnight – WR – California
151. John Broussard – CB – Alabama
156. Marquel Dismuke – S – California
161. Shaquille Quarterman – LB – Florida (Miami)
162. Brad Hawkins, Jr. – WR – New Jersey
163. Justin Layne – WR – Ohio
163. Jeffery McCulloch – LB – Texas
168. Curtis Robinson – ATH – California
174. Luke Farrell – TE – Ohio
182. Michael Onwenu – DT – Michigan
190. Camilo Eifler – LB – California
192. Austin Mack – WR – Indiana
199. Antonio Williams – RB – North Carolina (Wisconsin)
200. Kaden Smith – TE – Texas
201. Clark Yarbrough – OT – Virginia
202. Auston Robertson – DE – Indiana
208. Kentrail Moran – RB – Illinois
211. Brandon Peters – QB – Indiana
215. Cameron Lewis – ATH – Louisiana
225. Justin Madubuike – DE – Texas
226. Jaylon Jones – CB – Texas
228. Dele’ Harding – LB – Maryland (Michigan)
229. Dontavious Jackson – LB – Texas
230. Jordan Fuller – ATH – New Jersey
232. Messiah DeWeaver – QB – Ohio
238. Alex Akingbulu – OT – California
239. Jordan Woods – DE – Florida
247. Michael Jordan – OT – Michigan
248. Khalid Kareem – DE – Michigan

Rivals 100 for 2016 updated

Erik Swenson is the #82 prospect in the country (image via 247Sports.com)

Rivals updated their top 100 prospects for 2016 (LINK). Here’s what it looked like in December (LINK). Michigan commit Erik Swenson dropped from #76 to #82 over the past couple months. Here are the rest of Michigan’s offerees:

5-stars:
1. Jacob Eason – QB – Washington (Georgia)
3. Shea Patterson – QB – Louisiana
4. Rashan Gary – DT – New Jersey
5. Nate Craig-Myers – WR – Florida (Auburn)
6. Demetris Robertson – ATH – Alabama (Alabama)
8. Greg Little – OT – Texas (Texas A&M)
9. Levonta Taylor – CB – Virginia
11. Rahshaun Smith – DE – Florida
12. Caleb Kelly – LB – California
13. Dexter Lawrence – DT – North Carolina
15. Malik Henry – QB – California
18. Kareem Walker – RB – New Jersey (Ohio State)
19. Daelin Hayes – LB – Michigan (USC)

4-stars:
25. K.J. Costello – QB – California
28. Brandon Jones – S – Texas
29. Elijah Stove – WR – Florida
31. Tommy Kraemer – OT – Ohio (Notre Dame)
32. Scott Bracey – WR – Virginia (Duke)
36. Sam Bruce – WR – Florida (Miami)
39. Janarius Robinson – DE – Florida (Florida State)
40. Isaac Nauta – TE – Georgia (Florida State)
41. Ben Bredeson – OT – Wisconsin
42. Ben Cleveland – OT – Georgia (Georgia)
43. Deontay Anderson – S – Texas
44. Jake Hausmann – TE – Ohio (Ohio State)
50. Ahmir Mitchell – WR – New Jersey
51. Erick Fowler – LB – Texas
53. Miles Sanders – RB – Pennsylvania (Penn State)
55. Ed Oliver – DT – Texas
56. E.J. Price – OT – Georgia
58. Willie Allen – OT – Louisiana
59. Josh King – DE – Illinois
61. Naseir Upshur – TE – Pennsylvania
62. Collin Johnson – WR – Texas (Texas)
66. Donnie Corley – WR – Michigan
68. Dwayne Haskins, Jr. – QB – Maryland
69. Dylan Crawford – WR – California
74. Trayvon Mullen – CB – Texas
79. T.J. Chase – WR – Florida (Clemson)
81. Michael Menet – OT – Pennsylvania
82. Erik Swenson – OT – Illinois (Michigan)
84. Kendell Jones – DT – Texas
91. Jarrett Guarantano – QB – New Jersey