Tag: Scout rankings

How well do scouting services predict the NFL Draft?

Two-star J.J. Watt was voted Overachiever of the Year by NFL general managers.

It’s always interesting to take a look at which of the recruiting services does the best job of predicting future success.  Just looking at first round picks isn’t the most in-depth study, but it’s an indicator of accuracy.  The results:

1. Cam Newton: Rivals 5-star, Scout 4-star,
2. Von Miller: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
3. Marcell Dareus: Rivals 3-star, Scout 4-star
4. A.J. Green: Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star
5. Patrick Peterson: Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star
6. Julio Jones: Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star
7. Aldon Smith: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
8. Jake Locker: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
9. Tyron Smith: Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star
10. Blaine Gabbert: Rivals 5-star, Scout 4-star
11. J.J. Watt: Rivals 2-star, Scout 2-star
12. Christian Ponder: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
13. Nick Fairley: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
14. Robert Quinn: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
15. Mike Pouncey: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
16. Ryan Kerrigan: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
17. Nate Solder: Rivals 3-star, Scout 2-star
18. Corey Liuget: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
19. Prince Amukamara: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
20. Adrian Clayborn: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
21. Phil Taylor: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
22. Anthony Castonzo: Rivals 2-star, Scout 2-star
23. Danny Watkins: Rivals 4-star, Scout 2-star
24. Cameron Jordan: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
25. James Carpenter: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
26. Jonathan Baldwin: Rivals 5-star, Scout 5-star
27. Jimmy Smith: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
28. Mark Ingram: Rivals 4-star, Scout 3-star
29. Gabe Carimi: Rivals 3-star, Scout 3-star
30. Muhammad Wilkerson: Rivals 2-star, Scout 2-star
31. Cameron Heyward: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star
32. Derek Sherrod: Rivals 4-star, Scout 4-star

The average star rating for first round picks, as rated by Rivals.com:  3.72

The average star rating for first round picks, as rated by Scout.com: 3.56

Rivals:
5-stars: 7
4-stars: 12
3-stars: 10
2-stars: 3

Scout:
5-stars: 5
4-stars: 13
3-stars: 9
2-stars: 5

You’ll notice that each of the 2-stars chosen by the recruiting services plays offensive or defensive line.  This is not a surprise.  As high schoolers fill out and grow, it’s very difficult to project how their bodies will mature.  J.J. Watt, a 6’5″, 220 lb. high schooler, developed into a 6’6″, 292 lb. first round pick.

Smaller players develop sooner physically, so it’s somewhat expected that cornerbacks and wide receivers are predicted with more accuracy.  A kid who’s faster than everyone at 18 years old will probably still be faster than everyone when he’s 21.  Picks #4 through #6 were a wide receiver, a cornerback, and a wide receiver, all three of whom were unanimously chosen as 5-star prospects by the recruiting services.

Scout 300 Released

Dorial Green-Beckham is the #2 prospect in the country, according to Scout.com

Scout.com released its top 300 players for the Class of 2012, and it shows an interesting recruiting trend, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Brady Hoke and his staff were receiving some flak for offering so many prospects early in the recruiting cycle.  By my count the Wolverines have offered scholarships to 139 players at this juncture.  You will find 108 of them on this list, which means 77.7% of Michigan’s offers are to players considered to be in the top 300 prospects nationwide.

Compare that to Rich Rodriguez.  By the end of the 2011 recruiting cycle, he (and Brady Hoke, who tossed out a handful of offers between his hiring and National Signing Day) had offered 190 players.  On the final Scout 300 list, there were only 94 Rodriguez/Hoke offerees.  So only 49.5% of Rodriguez offers went to the top 300 players in the country [Thanks to commenter Anonymous for catching my math error.].

Of course, this isn’t the final Scout 300.  Prospects could move up or down on this list, they could fall out of the top 300, etc.  But if you were unsure about the quality of recruits Michigan is pursuing, it seems that our new staff has taken a different – and dare I say better – approach to the recruiting process.

Here are the players Michigan has offered, with any current pledges noted in parentheses:

1. Arik Armstead – DT – California (USC)
2. Dorial Green-Beckham – WR – Missouri
3. Andrus Peat – OT – Arizona
4. John Theus – OT – Florida
5. Keith Marshall – RB – North Carolina
6. Noah Spence – DE – Pennsylvania
8. Mario Edwards – DE – Texas (Florida State)
12. Jarron Jones – DT – New York
13. Avery Young – OT – Florida
14. Eddie Goldman – DT – Washington, DC
15. Kwon Alexander – LB – Alabama
16. Stefon Diggs – S – Maryland
17. Gunner Kiel – QB – Indiana
20. Malcolm Brown – RB – Texas (Texas)
21. Adolphus Washington – DE – Ohio
22. Kyle Kalis – OT – Ohio (Ohio State)
24. Josh Garnett – OG – Washington
25. Zeke Pike – QB – Kentucky
26. Darius Hamilton – DE – New Jersey
27. D.J. Humphries – OT – North Carolina
28. Brionte Dunn – RB – Ohio (Ohio State)
30. Jordan Simmons – OG – California
31. Leonte Carroo – WR – New Jersey
34. Kyle Murphy – OT – California
38. Ellis McCarthy – DT – California
40. Jordan Diamond – OT – Illinois
41. Brian Poole – CB – Florida
43. Jordan Jenkins – DE – Georgia
44. Wes Brown – RB – Maryland
45. Zach Banner – OT – Washington
46. Tommy Schutt – DT – Illinois
47. Ronald Darby – CB – Maryland
49. Tee Shepard – CB – California (Notre Dame)
50. Aziz Shittu – DT – California
52. LaDarrell McNeil – S – Texas
56. Matt Jones – RB – Florida (Florida)
58. Ifeadi Odenigbo – DE – Ohio
60. Jordan Payton – WR – California (USC)
63. Brock Stadnik – OT – North Carolina
64. Sheldon Day – DT – Indiana
65. Greg Garmon – RB – Pennsylvania
69. Michael Starts – OG – Texas
71. Troy Hinds – DE – Utah
72. James Ross – LB – Michigan
73. Jonathan Taylor – DT – Georgia
76. Avery Johnson – WR – Florida (LSU)
78. Se’von Pittman – DE – Ohio
84. Aaron Burbridge – WR – Michigan
86. Bryce Treggs – WR – California
90. Taylor Decker – OT – Ohio (Notre Dame)
91. Elijah Shumate – S – New Jersey
95. Peter Jinkens – LB – Texas (Texas)
96. Erik Magnuson – OT – California
98. Vincent Valentine – DT – Illinois
99. Dan Voltz – OT – Illinois (Wisconsin)
100. Evan Boehm – C – Missouri
101. Deaysean Rippy – LB – Pennsylvania
102. Jabari Ruffin – LB – California (USC)
104. Martin Aiken – DE – South Carolina
105. Royce Jenkins-Stone – LB – Michigan
106. Dwayne Stanford – WR – Ohio
107. Kendall Sanders – CB – Texas (Oklahoma State)
110. J.J. Denman – OT – Pennsylvania
111. Paul Thurston – OT – Colorado
112. Chris Wormley – DE – Ohio
116. Maty Mauk – QB – Ohio
119. Reginald Davis – WR – Texas (Texas Tech)
125. Jaquay Williams – WR – Georgia
127. Connor Brewer – QB – Arizona (Texas)
131. Danny O’Brien – DT – Michigan
137. Ron Thompson – TE – Michigan
139. Terry Richardson – CB – Michigan
143. Camren Williams – LB – Maryland (Penn State)
146. Devin Funchess – TE – Michigan
150. Devonte Fields – DE – Texas
151. Jarrod Wilson – S – Ohio
153. Ryan Watson – OG – Maryland
159. Greg McMullen – DE – Ohio
163. Devin Fuller – QB – New Jersey
164. Amara Darboh – WR – Iowa
165. Taylor McNamara – TE – California
166. Dalton Santos – LB – Texas (Oklahoma State)
170. Mike Madaras – OT – Maryland (Maryland)
171. John Michael McGee- C – Texas
174. Shane Callahan – OT – Colorado
176. Derrick Woods – WR – California
177. Armani Reeves – CB – Maryland
180. Mario Ojemudia – DE – Michigan
185. Zach Kline – QB – California (Cal)
188. Ondre Pipkins – DT – Missouri
191. Kyle Dodson – OG – Ohio
200. Tom Strobel – DE – Ohio
202. Ty Darlington – C – Florida
206. Kaleb Ringer – LB – Ohio
218. Vince Biegel – LB – Wisconsin
222. Deon Bush – CB – Florida
224. Evan Baylis – TE – Colorado
226. Jeremiah Tshimanga – LB – Texas (Oklahoma State)
237. Drew Harris – RB – Pennsylvania
238. Joe Bolden – LB – Ohio
246. D.J. Singleton – S – New Jersey
255. Sean Price – TE – Florida
259. Malik Gilmore – WR – California
260. Raphael Kirby – LB – Georgia
263. Wayne Morgan – CB – New York
264. Vonte Jackson – RB – Wisconsin (Wisconsin)
271. Brent Wilkerson – DE – Maryland (Penn State)
281. Latroy Pittman – WR – Florida (Florida)

Final Recruiting Rankings



Justice Hayes (Rivals #85, Scout #131) is Michigan’s highest-ranked recruit

 Players offered by Michigan in the final Rivals 250 (the top 26 were given 5-star rankings, the rest 4-stars):

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE
2. Curtis Grant, LB
3. George Farmer, WR
4. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT
6. La’El Collins, OT
7. Ha’sean Clinton-Dix, S
8. Karlos Williams, S
9. Ray Drew, DE
11. James Wilder, Jr., RB
15. Sammy Watkins, WR
18. Jarvis Landry, WR
19. Demetrius Hart, RB
20. Kris Frost, LB
25. Mike Bellamy, RB

27. Christian Westerman, OT
29. Timmy Jernigan, DT
34. Braxton Miller, QB
36. Marqise Lee, S
40. Mike Blakely, RB
41. Michael Bennett, DT
44. Anthony Chickillo, DE
45. Lamar Dawson, LB
55. Lawrence Thomas, LB
56. Jay Rome, TE
58. Savon Huggins, RB
64. Aundrey Walker, OG
65. Anthony Zettel, DE
66. Brandon Shell, OT
67. Tyler Moore, OG
70. Matt Hegarty, OT
72. Brett Hundley, QB
77. Bobby Hart, OG
80. Delvon Simmons, DT
83. Charone Peake, WR
84. DeAnthony Arnett, WR
85. Justice Hayes, RB
88. Christian LeMay, QB
89. Kiehl Frazier, QB
90. Gregory Robinson, OT
92. Demetrious Nicholson, CB
97. Trey DePriest, LB
100. Charles Jackson, CB
102. Doran Grant, CB
107. Wayne Lyons, S
109. Quan Bray, RB
110. Cyrus Hobbi, OG
114. Andre Yruretagoyena, OT
117. Nick Waisome, CB
118. Stefan McClure, CB
127. Miles Shuler, WR
129. Andrew Buie, RB
132. Ray Hamilton, TE
133. Blake Countess, CB
136. A.J. Johnson, LB
139. Giorgio Newberry, DE
151. Floyd Raven, CB
153. Garrett Greenlea, OT
155. Brian Miller, TE
158. Deion Barnes, DE
161. Josh Turner, CB
162. Brandon Fulse, TE
165. Sheroid Evans, S
166. Kiaro Holts, OG
167. Steve Miller, DE
171. Travis Hughes, LB
175. Kyshoen Jarrett, CB
178. Davaris Daniels, CB
179. Jordan Walsh, OG
181. Avery Walls, S
189. Sheldon Royster, S
190. Devin Lucien, WR
191. Darius Jennings, WR
192. Nick Vannett, TE
195. Mickey Johnson, DT
199. Tre Mason, RB
201. Brennen Beyer, LB/DE
203. Chris Bryant, OG
213. Remound Wright, RB
214. Dondi Kirby, S
225. Austin Traylor, TE
234. Bill Belton, RB
241. Shawn Oakman, DE
245. Josue Matias, OG
247. Marquise Williams, QB

Players offered by Michigan in the final Scout 300 (the top 50 were given 5-star rankings, the rest 4-stars):

1. Jadeveon Clowney, DE
2. Cyrus Kouandjio, OT
6. Trey DePriest, LB
7. Ha’sean Clinton-Dix, S
8. Karlos Williams, S
11. La’El Collins, OT
13. Anthony Chickillo, DE
15. Delvon Simmons, DT
17. Christian Westerman, OT
18. Kiaro Holts, OG
19. Curtis Grant, LB
23. Savon Huggins, RB
24. Bobby Hart, OG
27. George Farmer, WR
29. Jarvis Landry, WR
30. Timmy Jernigan, DT
33. Ray Drew, DE
35. Brandon Shell, OT
36. Braxton Miller, QB
37. Lawrence Thomas, LB
39. Brett Hundley, QB
41. Sammy Watkins, WR
42. Steve Miller, DE
47. James Wilder, Jr., RB
48. Jalen Grimble, DE

51. Charles Jackson, CB
52. Garrett Greenlea, OT
57. Michael Bennett, DT
59. Travis Hughes, LB
60. Mike Bellamy, RB
61. Demetrious Nicholson, CB
63. Demetrius Hart, RB
64. DeAnthony Arnett, WR
66. Jordan Walsh, OG
68. Jay Rome, TE
69. Stefan McClure, CB
70. Doran Grant, CB
73. Charone Peake, WR
76. Brennen Beyer, DE/OLB
78. Marqise Lee, S
81. Ryan Shazier, LB
85. Bill Belton, WR
86. Mike Blakely, RB
88. Josh Turner, CB
92. Nick Waisome, CB
101. Christian LeMay, QB
105. Matt Hegarty, OT
112. Andre Yruretagoyena, OT
115. Tyler Moore, OG
116. Cyrus Hobbi, OG
121. Miles Shuler, WR
129. Lamar Dawson, LB
131. Justice Hayes, RB
132. Damiere Byrd, WR
133. Gregory Robinson, OG
143. Corey Marshall, DE
144. Anthony Zettel, DE
146. Giorgio Newberry, DE
149. Sheldon Royster, S
151. Valdez Showers, CB
153. Wayne Lyons, S
154. Quan Bray, RB
161. DaVaris Daniels, WR
165. Darian Cooper, DT
169. Ron Tanner, S
178. Remound Wright, RB
182. Kyshoen Jarrett, CB
183. Ryan Kelly, OC
187. Devin Smith, WR
193. Sheroid Evans, S
195. Shawn Oakman, DE
196. Jabriel Washington, CB
200. Javares McRoy, WR
204. Aundrey Walker, OG
210. JaJuan Story, WR
213. Blake Countess, CB
216. Mickey Johnson, DT
217. Jerrard Randall, QB
222. Quinta Funderburk, WR
226. Kellen Jones, LB
241. Brandon Phelps, CB
248. Jake Fisher, OT
250. Dexter Staley, LB
253. A.J. Johnson, LB
254. Everett Golson, QB
263. Marquise Williams, QB
268. Kris Frost, LB
275. Brandon Fulse, TE
279. Darius Jennings, WR
282. Tre Mason, RB
283. Devin Lucien, WR
290. Josue Matias, OT
291. Nick Vannett, TE
292. Zach DeBell, OT