NOTE: I want to acknowledge that this post is coming out after Michigan’s first game. I usually get this post done prior to the season – for obvious reasons – but I was scrambling to finish the countdown and just couldn’t get it all wrapped up. Some of these predictions were already shared in the season countdown posts, but some were not addressed.
LEADING RUSHER I’m not sure how well this prediction holds up after watching game one against Fresno State, in which Kalel Mullings outgained Donovan Edwards. But I believed Edwards would be the lead back and put up a good chunk of yards. Prediction: Donovan Edwards, 1100 yards
Hit the jump for the rest of the prognostications.
Name: T.J. Guy Height: 6’4″ Weight: 250 lbs. High school: Mansfield (MA) Mansfield Position: Defensive end Class: Redshirt junior Jersey number: #42 Last year: I ranked Guy #60 and said he would be a backup defensive end (LINK). He made 10 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 sack. TTB Rating: 65
Michigan had a strong group of edge players in 2023, which kept Guy’s playing time in check. Behind starters Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell, the Wolverines had Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart. So Guy was the fifth-best edge defender on a team stacked with edge defenders. Overall, he had a solid season for being a third-stringer and managed to put together a 75.8 overall grade from PFF. Going just by PFF grades, he’s the sixth best returning player from Michigan’s defense behind Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Will Johnson . . .
. . . and Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart.
So there’s an argument to be made that Michigan’s sixth best defender is going to be a backup, because #3 and #4 play the same position he does.
Guy has shown flashes over his first few years, notching a couple sacks and then having a solid spring game back in April. But at least in the spring game, he was beating up on backups and freshmen. The jury is still out on whether he can do it against other teams’ top-notch players, but every fall practice report has been mentioning Guy as an up-and-comer. I’m buying into the hype that he’s going to turn into a solid player for 2024 and could place himself in a good spot to take over as a starter in 2025 after Stewart leaves.
2023 Starters: OLB Jaylen Harrell, DT Mason Graham, DT Kris Jenkins, DE Braiden McGregor Losses: Reece Atteberry (transfer), Cam Goode (NFL), Harrell (NFL), McGregor (NFL) Returning players: Josaiah Stewart (Sr.), Kechaun Bennett (RS Jr.), Rayshaun Benny (RS Jr.), T.J. Guy (RS Jr.), Ike Iwunnah (RS Jr.), Tyler McLaurin (RS Jr.), Graham (Jr.), Grant (Jr.), Derrick Moore (Jr.), Alessandro Lorenzetti (RS So.), Breeon Ishmail (So.), Cameron Brandt (So.), Roderick Pierce (So.), Brooks Bahr (RS Fr.), Enow Etta (RS Fr.), Aymeric Koumba (RS Fr.) Newcomer: DE Dominic Nichols (Fr.) Projected starters: OLB Stewart, DT Graham, DT Grant, DE Moore
Michigan had an excellent defensive line in 2023, and it might have been the best position group on the national championship squad. The biggest differential in the national championship game against Washington was Michigan’s defensive line against the offensive line of the Huskies. Washington had a couple potential high draft picks in that group, and the Wolverines tossed them around like rag dolls.
Whereas Michigan had dynamic edge rushers in 2021 with David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson, the interior of the defensive line has been the strength the past two years. That should be the case once again in 2024, though I’m expecting a little more pass rush from the edge guys this season. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are entrenched as the starters at defensive tackle, and they should be the #1 defensive tackle combo in the nation. Grant is 6’3″ and 340 pounds but is fast enough to chase down Penn State running backs from behind. Graham is 6’4″, 310 and plays with both explosion and technique.
Michigan needs someone to emerge from the backup ranks, as starter Kris Jenkins, Jr. and frequently used backup Cam Goode have both moved on. Rayshaun Benny broke his foot late in the season, too, and will probably not be full strength until the fall. This spring look for Roderick Pierce to get some heavy rotation after playing a decent amount as the fourth nose tackle a year ago. Ike Iwunnah is a fourth-year player who has yet to see the field, so it’s tough to see him breaking out at this point, and Alessandro Lorenzetti is another player with decent size (6’5″, 301) who has yet to see the field. Michigan will either have to play one of those inexperienced older guys or give a shot to some young guys who really needed to bulk up from “strongside defensive end” vibes to playing tackle, such as Cameron Brandt or Brooks Bahr.
On the edges, Josaiah Stewart – who spent his first two seasons at Coastal Carolina – and Derrick Moore seem like very good bets to start. Stewart should step in capably for Harrell, and Moore should slide in smoothly for McGregor. They both rotated heavily last year and received a ton of playing time, and Stewart in particular showed a lot of growth throughout the year as he adjusted to playing in the Big Ten.
Once again, the big questions come from the backup ranks. Who will step up to rotate into the game frequently? And will anyone turn into an elite pass rusher? T.J. Guy is a fourth-year player with a good bit of experience, and he could be a solid backup option. He’s probably not a game-changer at this point, so the guys fans really want to see are the likes of Breeon Ishmail and Enow Etta. Both had excellent potential coming out of high school, and Etta was a highly valued recruit who was absolutely dominant in high school (20+ sacks in each of his final two seasons) but played against inferior competition.
Aymeric Koumba is a second-year Frenchman, and Dominic Nichols is an early enrollee freshman. Both have potential but it seems a little early for them to make much of an impact.
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Name: T.J. Guy Height: 6’4″ Weight: 246 lbs. High school: Mansfield (MA) Mansfield Position: Defensive end Class: Redshirt sophomore Jersey number: #42 Last year: I ranked Guy #50 and said he would be a backup defensive end (LINK). He made 4 tackles. TTB Rating: 65
Guy seems to be steadily progressing in his career. After playing in two games as a freshman, he played in ten total contests last fall, including six on defense. He came into college with some questions about where he should play – end or tackle – but he’s been hovering in the 240s for his entire career so far.
The outlook for 2023 is perhaps a little brighter than it was in 2022. Mike Morris, Taylor Upshaw, and Eyabi Okie have all moved on from his position group. Josaiah Stewart, Jaylen Harrell, Braiden McGregor, and Derrick Moore are probably going to make up the top four edges, so Guy will be battling Kechaun Bennett, Tyler McLaurin, and freshman to get the other snaps available. While Bennett flashed a little bit in the spring, Guy has been more trusted by the coaches when it comes to live games over the past couple years, so I’m giving Guy the nod in the race for playing time.
Name: T.J. Guy Height: 6’5″ Weight: 251 lbs. High school: Mansfield (MA) Mansfield Position: Defensive end Class: Redshirt freshman Jersey number: #42 Last year: I ranked Guy #86 and said he would redshirt (LINK). He played in two games and made 2 tackles and 1 sack. TTB Rating: 65
When Guy came in as a recruit, his future position was up in the air. Don Brown probably would have turned him into a defensive tackle, but Mike Macdonald made him a stand-up defensive end. He was a way down the depth chart, but he still got some playing time since Michigan blew out a few teams. He managed to make a sack against Maryland while playing in two games and keeping his redshirt.
I heard positive things about Guy in the spring. He’s not lighting the world on fire, but he’s continuing his progression, hopefully into a useful contributor in the next year or two. Defensive end should be manned by Mike Morris, Braiden McGregor, Taylor Upshaw, and/or Julius Welschof this fall. There’s not a star in that group, but there are lots of solid options, and the hope is that somebody steps up and stands out. It will be very, very interesting to see who steps up to replace all-time sacks leader Aidan Hutchinson and the speedy, athletic David Ojabo as pass rushers.
