What’s Michigan’s offensive identity? Obviously, Michigan is still trying to feel out what it’s good at besides hoping a tight end can make a play. With a walk-on quarterback, it needs to be a run-oriented program. With that being said, Michigan needs to commit to more creativity in the run game. This team can’t subsist on 14 total rushing attempts from its top two running backs. Donovan Edwards (8 carries, 41 yards) and Kalel Mullings (6 carries, 25 yards) may not have had great days, but the offensive coordinator (and the offensive-minded head coach) need to figure out creative ways to get them the ball, get them going in the run game, and play complementary offensive football. The offense seems to be very disjointed as the staff appears to be relying on an odd mix of runs and straight dropback passing. They need more misdirection in the run game and they need to get Warren moving a little bit. I don’t think the coaching staff has done a good job of adjusting to its personnel this year.
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Davis Warren is a problem. The problem with evaluating the quarterback position at this point is a complex one. Through the lens of being a starting quarterback at Michigan, Warren is just not up to snuff. He misses too many open throws and can’t push the ball downfield – or at least hasn’t – in the way we’re used to seeing. His overall numbers against Texas weren’t awful considering how much Michigan had to play from behind (22/33, 204 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions), but a struggling Michigan run game needs more at QB. And the QB needs more from the run game. Late in the game, Michigan let Warren play it out and gave him a bunch of chances to throw the ball, and I think color analyst Joel Klatt got it exactly right – the coaches need Warren to improve, and getting live passing snaps is key. But the Wolverines need to give Warren more help earlier in the game with easy throws, play action, rollouts, half rolls, etc. He made good decisions and solid throws rolling to his right in this game, and Michigan needs to take advantage of that. Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell needs to look at his offense and figure out how to help a struggling quarterback who has limitations. It’s not impossible (see 2021 Cade McNamara), but it does take creativity. Now Michigan knows it can’t physically outmatch top teams upfront, so Campbell needs to go back to the drawing board and figure out what this 2024 team can do – not just try to make it do what the 2021-2023 teams did.
Should Alex Orji play more? I don’t have much faith in Orji as a passer, which I have mentioned time and time again. It raised a giant red flag in 2023 when the coaching staff went an entire year without letting him attempt a pass. It wouldn’t have been that big of a deal if J.J. McCarthy returned . . . or if Michigan went after a transfer portal quarterback . . . but what was left at QB was less than stellar. I think Michigan needs to install a triple option package for Orji – not just a power/counter read, but a true triple option. Otherwise, the Orjicat offense is going to be dead in the water. Below I’ll just draw up a play that gives an idea of what I’m talking about:
Obviously, you have to show different looks with different personnel, but that gets your best athletes on the field (Orji, Edwards, Mullings, Loveland, etc.) and stresses the defense in multiple ways – horizontally, vertically, with physicality, and with discipline. If the defense walks the free safety up to put a ninth guy in the box, you have to trust Orji to be able to throw a fade or a post to Tyler Morris or Colston Loveland. You can draw up similar plays from a hundred different formations with a bunch of different personnel. Put Amorion Walker out there at wideout and let the 6’3″ guy with the 4.3 speed outrun a corner. This isn’t something to major in, but it provides someone like Orji a chance to be successful without just running straight into a loaded box. And if you can’t trust Orji to pitch the ball or throw a fade . . . well . . . you should probably just go ahead and switch him to tight end or linebacker.
The defense has little depth. I should preface this by pointing out that Texas is a very good football team, so there’s really no room for error. Michigan can’t have a big drop-off from its starters to its backups on defense and expect to be successful. Last year Michigan had great depth on the interior of the defensive line and even at linebacker, but this year is a step down in talent and experience. Texas did a great job of making defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant run laterally to get them tired, and then they were better able to run up the middle against those guys or the backups. Enow Etta came in the game briefly and immediately got blown off the ball, and he’s the #4 or #5 defensive tackle. There are no backup edges who are really a threat to win against good tackles – not T.J. Guy, not Cameron Brandt, no one.
This is why you don’t schedule tough teams early in the season. I know the 12-team playoff era is new, but this has always been the case. Admittedly, this game doesn’t destroy Michigan’s chances of making the CFP; if they go 11-1, they’ll certainly be in the playoff. But it does cut down the margin. Michigan could probably go 10-2 and make the playoff, and they might sneak in at 9-3. I just don’t see any huge advantages to playing top teams early in the year when you have teams like Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, etc. already in the conference.
Panic is not necessary. The expectation going into the season should have been a struggling offense with 10 new starters, including either a walk-on at QB, a guy who wasn’t trusted to pass last year, or a seventh year senior who’s already hurt. The front four depth was already a question mark, too, with no reinforcements brought in at edge rusher or defensive tackle. (If Michigan went after Stewart from the transfer portal in 2023 to supplement McGregor, Harrell, and Moore, I’m not sure why they didn’t go after another edge to supplement Stewart and Moore in 2024.) Texas had a better roster than Michigan coming into 2024, and it turns out . . . yeah, Texas is better. Not every team is going to be Texas with giant offensive linemen, a bunch of mercenary receivers, and a former #1 quarterback.
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