What’s the deal with: All these in-state offers?

Devontae Dobbs (image via Fanbuzz)

Michigan has offered a bunch of new in-state players for the 2019 and 2020 classes, and it seems out of character for the Wolverines, especially for Jim Harbaugh’s staff. There have been rumors that Harbaugh (and others within the program) have realized that their recruiting in 2018 has not been up to snuff, and there have been complaints for several years that Harbaugh was ignoring the midwest – particularly Ohio – in favor of spending a lot of time recruiting Florida, California, Texas, Alabama, etc., which are more difficult to recruit, for obvious geographical reasons, along with some other reasons.

First, here’s a look at the numbers, from Brady Hoke’s final full class through 2021 so far:

Class of 2014 (7): C Tommy Doles, WR Drake Harris, DT Lawrence Marshall, DT Malik McDowell, LB Jared Wangler, WR Maurice Ways, CB Damon Webb

Class of 2015 (7): DT Josh Alabi, WR Brian Cole, RB John Kelly, QB Alex Malzone, WR Grant Perry, LB Tyriq Thompson, RB Mike Weber

Class of 2016 (14): WR Donnie Corley, RB Matt Falcon, WR Desmond Fitzpatrick, LB Daelin Hayes, CB Lavert Hill, QB Josh Jackson, OT Alaric Jackson, OT Michael Jordan, DE Khalid Kareem, OG Cameron Kolwich, K Quinn Nordin, OG Michael Onwenu, LB David Reese, S Demetric Vance

Class of 2017 (13): TE Carter Dunaway, OT Ja’Raymond Hall, DE Deron Irving-Bey, S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, DE Corey Malone-Hatcher, S Scott Nelson, DT Phillip Paea, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, OG Jordan Reid, LB Joshua Ross, LB Antjuan Simmons, RB Allen Stritzinger, CB Ambry Thomas

Class of 2018 (11): LB Kolin Demens, CB Kalon Gervin, CB Vincent Gray, TE Ryan Hayes, DE Aidan Hutchinson, OT Jalen Mayfield, OG Marquan McCall, K Jake Moody, LB Ovie Oghoufo, OT Antwan Reed, FB Ben VanSumeren,

Class of 2019 (14): CB Julian Barnett, OG Karsen Barnhart, DE Adam Berghorst, OT Spencer Brown, OT Logan Brown, OT Jacob Dean, LB Lance Dixon, OT Devontae Dobbs, DE Michael Fletcher, S Marvin Grant, QB Sam Johnson III, LB Marcel Lewis, WR Tre Mosley, DT Mazi Smith

Class of 2020 (4): S Makari Paige, OG Justin Rogers, LB Cornell Wheeler, WR Rashawn Williams

Class of 2021 (1): DE Damon Payne

Obviously, it’s tough to gauge how many offers will go out in the 2020 and 2021 classes since we’re so far away from those classes being truly relevant. But based on 14 in-state offers already for the 2019 class when we’re still a year away from National Signing Day.

It’s important to note that the number of Michigan offers being handed out has increased significantly since the days of Lloyd Carr, Rich Rodriguez, and even Brady Hoke. Jim Harbaugh’s staff offered 311 players in the 2017 class, 246 in the 2018 class, and already 212 for the 2019 class, which is still a year away from signing. To put those numbers in perspective, the previous high on record (at least since I started keeping track) was 195 offers in the 2011 class, which was the Rodriguez/Hoke transition class. Naturally, an increase in overall offers will lead to more offers within the state of Michigan, but also – theoretically – in every other state.

So what’s going on here? Is the 2019 in-state crop just that talented, or is Michigan trying a new recruiting strategy?

I’m inclined to believe that it’s a combination of both. I do not think Michigan would be sending out so many offers if the players weren’t talented enough to play at Michigan, but there’s a difference between being a role player and a star. I thought the 2017 class was the most talented in the state for several years, and that class included a legitimate national recruit in Donovan Peoples-Jones. The 2016 group includes several guys who have performed well in college so far, which might poke a hole in my theory about 2017. The 2018 crop was a little bit down, but 2019 has numerous legitimate prospects.

I don’t see a player in 2019 who’s quite on the level of a Donovan Peoples-Jones, but there are several guys who are 4-star level prospects, in my opinion. It includes several very good prospects on the offensive line, including Devontae Dobbs, Karsen Barnhart, Spencer Brown, and Logan Brown. Julian Barnett, Lance Dixon, Marvin Grant, and Mazi Smith are also high-quality players. There are always going to be some 3-star prospects, too, that every team pursues. So I like the level of talent in Michigan for 2019.

On the other hand, Michigan has had a lot of staff turnover in the past couple years, and sometimes that lends itself to additional offers. One coach comes in for a year and offers a few kids, and another coach replaces him, doesn’t jive with the old offerees, and sees some new talent he likes. Jedd Fisch and Pep Hamilton have eyes for different kinds of talents. Dan Enos was only employed in Ann Arbor for a few weeks, but he handed out some offers, too. Meanwhile, Michigan brought in tight ends coach Sherrone Moore and linebackers coach Al Washington, both of whom have been very active on the recruiting trail. Michigan sent out those 212 offers before National Signing Day, and they have yet to reach spring visit season, camp season, or the beginning of players’ senior years.

I also believe Harbaugh and Co. have altered their recruiting strategy since they arrived near the end of the 2015 cycle. Coming from California, they spent a ton of time trying to work connections in California, and despite their success at Stanford and San Francisco, I think they’re realizing that recruiting to Michigan is a whole different animal. Whether we like it or not, Ann Arbor doesn’t have the same sex appeal as moving to Florida or California. Stanford can recruit players from California and Georgia and Virginia and Texas without them worrying about having to deal with snow and cold weather. Michigan has had some recruiting success within the state of Michigan and in New Jersey, among some other places like Florida, but they don’t have that concern about weather to deal with. Palo Alto and Ann Arbor are two very different climates, and Michigan is a lot farther away from California than Texas is.

I think the Michigan coaching staff is coming back down to Earth a little bit and saying, “Let’s be realistic.” That’s why we’re seeing an increase in offers in the state of Ohio and a good number of offers in Michigan. Michigan can do just fine in the Midwest. Many of Brady Hoke’s recruits came from the state of Ohio, and while many didn’t have Ohio State offers, they still matched up well. Jake Ryan, Frank Clark, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Chris Wormley, Willie Henry, Roy Roundtree, and others all came from Ohio. The coaching staff can still try to pick off some recruits outside of the Midwest, but I think it’s a good plan to keep building relationships in the Midwest and take advantage of the significant talent bases in those states.

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