Jabrill Peppers (image via Michigan Daily)
The score. OMG the score. Michigan hasn’t scored that many points since they beat the University of Chicago 85-0 in 1939. It’s the largest margin of victory in the history of the Big Ten, a record that was previously held by Wisconsin’s 63-point victory over Indiana in 2010, an 83-20 contest. I predicted a 45-0 victory in the game preview, but then I amended that shortly into the game:
Rain is the great equalizer. I don’t think #Michigan is going to score 45 tonight
— TouchTheBanner (@TouchTheBanner) October 8, 2016
In fairness to myself . . . it stopped raining. While the rain was coming down early, Wilton Speight was inaccurate, the normally sure-handed De’Veon Smith fumbled, and two balls squirted through the hands of Amara Darboh.
Hit the jump for more.
Is this the best defense in the country? Okay, okay, it was Rutgers. But for a while, Rutgers had -7 yards of offense. They didn’t earn a first down until late in the second half. The team had 12 tackles for loss, and that was with the backups in the game for most of the second half. Rutgers averaged 0.7 yards per play for the entire game, which ended with them gaining 39 total yards (34 running, 5 passing). The two Rutgers quarterbacks completed 2/18 passes. Meanwhile, Josh Metellus, a lowly rated true freshman safety, led the team with 6 tackles and added 1 sack.
I can’t say anything about Peppers that hasn’t already been said. If the Heisman is supposed to go to the most outstanding football player in the country, I don’t know who else has a claim. He can run (3 carries, 74 yards, 2 TDs), he can return punts (2 returns for 3 yards, with a 50-yard touchdown called back for an unnecessary block in the back), he can tackle (2 tackles, .5 tackles for loss), he can take direct snaps, he can cover, he can blitz, he can probably throw the ball. In fact, he came out of high school rated as a cornerback, and man coverage at corner might be his biggest weakness.
AND KHALID HILL IS EVEN BETTER! That’s not true, but Hill has 7 rushing touchdowns and 1 receiving touchdown through six games. That puts him on pace for 14 rushing scores (which would tie him for #7 in Michigan history) and 16 total touchdowns for the regular season, and that doesn’t include a potential Big Ten championship game or two playoff games. That’s pretty impressive for a backup converted tight end.
Rutgers is bad . . . They’ve been outscored 136-0 in their past two games. I don’t know how long the starters played in Ohio State’s 58-0 win, but I would imagine Urban Meyer called off the dogs a little bit, since Rutgers head coach Chris Ash was an assistant at OSU last season. Michigan, meanwhile, rested the starters for the most of the second half. It seemed like Rutgers only had about four plays, and they couldn’t run any of them well. Speight gave way to John O’Korn and Shane Morris by the first offensive series of the third quarter, and the backups kept plowing right through the Scarlet Knights’ defense.
. . . and so is its recruiting strategy. Michigan has gained a foothold in New Jersey, and the roster is rife with Garden State products. Supposedly, when Jim Harbaugh planned to hold a satellite camp in New Jersey last summer, he contacted Ash about holding a joint camp. Ash didn’t respond, Michigan planned a camp without him, and then Ash held a joint camp with Urban Meyer on the same day as Michigan’s planned camp. There were reports that several New Jersey high school coaches were pushing their kids to skip Michigan’s camp so they could go to the Rutgers/OSU camp. Fast forward a few months to Saturday night’s “showdown” against Michigan, and there were reportedly 200+ recruits on campus to see the game. I sort of understand why Ash would want to show off a game against a high-level team like Michigan (other home options this season include Howard, New Mexico, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State), but at least a team like Iowa or Penn State won’t crush your soul. Instead of a win or a close game (like their 14-7 loss to Iowa), they suffered the worst defeat in conference history.
Wilton Speight. I can’t help it, but Speight doesn’t look good. I don’t know if it was the rain or the night game or the road atmosphere, but he finished 6/13 for 100 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Sure, a couple of those passes were dropped, but a few of them were also airmailed and very easily could have been intercepted by safeties down the field if Rutgers had any f***ing clue how to play football. He missed some wide-open players, and that has been a consistent theme with him. He came into this season with a reputation for being an accurate short-to-intermediate thrower, but he’s been missing on a lot of the short crossing routes. In fact, in the past couple weeks, he’s been a better deep-ball thrower. In this game he hit a deep post to Darboh and a 30-yard touchdown on a vertical route to Jehu Chesson. He needs to be more consistent if Michigan’s going to have a chance of beating Ohio State, winning the Big Ten championship, and/or doing some damage in the playoffs.
The running backs. I was a bit surprised that De’Veon Smith essentially got benched after losing a fumble. Maybe Michigan figured they didn’t need him to win, but it was still a tight game at that point. Instead, they went with Chris Evans, Ty Isaac, and Karan Higdon, all of whom performed well. For a comparison point, Isaac started last year’s game against Maryland and lost two fumbles before getting benched, and Isaac hadn’t even earned the staff’s confidence as much as Smith has. Here’s how the backs performed, in order of yardage:
- Chris Evans: 11 carries for 153 yards (13.9 yards/carry)
- Karan Higdon: 13 carries for 114 yards (8.8 yards/carry), 2 TDs
- Ty Isaac: 12 carries for 93 yards (7.8 yards/carry), 2 TDs
- De’Veon Smith: 5 carries for 11 yards (2.2 yards/carry)
Maybe Michigan thought they could hit home runs with the other backs – and they would have been right – but it was still a curious decision to pull Smith after just five attempts.
Offensive line concerns. Linebacker and offensive line were the two most concerning position groups prior to the season, mostly because of depth. Michigan’s situation got very hairy early in Saturday night’s game. After Grant Newsome was lost for the season last week, replacement left tackle Juwann Bushell-Beatty got hurt two plays into this one. Michigan’s solution was to move center Mason Cole to left tackle and insert Pat Kugler at center. Meanwhile, Ben Braden got dinged up last week and gave way for freshman Ben Bredeson’s first career start at left guard. For a while, Michigan’s line looked like this:
- LT: starting center
- LG: true freshman backup
- C: redshirt junior backup
- RG: fifth year senior
- RT: fifth year senior
I’m still not impressed with Bushell-Beatty and Bredeson isn’t ready to be a starter just yet, so this is something to watch going forward. Hopefully these additional reps and some confidence will help those two, but a banged up offensive line with a so-so quarterback isn’t a great recipe for success against some of the teams Michigan will face in the coming months.
The broadcast was atrocious. There were numerous shots of Chris Ash on the Rutgers sideline for virtually no reason at all. He hasn’t done anything as a head coach, and the more interesting things are happening on the field, where 11 football players actively dominated 11 other football players, down after down after down. Early in the game, the announcers were talking up Chris Ash, the new attitude he brought to Piscataway, the strength and conditioning staff, the Ohio State connection, the talent they’ve been bringing in, the playmaking two-sport star Jawuan Harris, etc. The talent level doesn’t look any different, and Harris was averaging over 17 yards/catch . . . with most of his yards coming against Howard and New Mexico. He had 4 touches for -3 yards against Michigan, and he averaged 11 yards/catch against Ohio State. I guess that’s what happens when you play a night game in New Jersey on ESPN2.
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Despite the appearance of what some people will call a blowout win, we demonstrated weaknesses last night that are going to bite us against the good teams in this conference.
For starters, we have yet to play four full quarters of football. We were getting gashed on runs for first downs late in this game. Josh Metellus was our leading tackler with six. When your Safeties are leading your team in tackles, you have problems up front. The Buckeyes are going to play for 60 full minutes, we’re doomed if we only show up for 54.
Our execution on offense is suspect. On Pepper’s first run from the Wildcat, either the back went the wrong way and cut behind him, or Pepper’s turned away from the play. That kind of mental error might fly at Rutgers, but I’m thinking OSU and Sparty will feast on that kind of sloppiness.
Sadly, I’m coming around to the negative view of Speight, 6 of 13 and a lousy 100 yards, ain’t gonna cut it against a good team. O’Korn didn’t miss on a ball all night. I think we might have to make a change. If the coaching staff is afraid to let Speight throw the ball against a secondary that’s better that CFU, we need to go with the other guy. A one dimensional offensive football team has no chance against a more physically talented defense.
I’m very concerned that our chances for a magical season are slipping away from us.
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I’m assuming this comment is sarcastic, but do think that Wilton Speight’s accuracy is a concern that could cost us the OSU game potentially, although I think MSU and Iowa are so bad this year it won’t matter against them (more worried about Indiana actually). Making a QB switch is a bad idea at this point unless O’Korn has shown himself to be clearly superior in practice.
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If you’re hunting for negatives with this team, Speight’s inconsistency is clearly the biggest issue. OL depth is #2.
On the OL: It was encouraging that JBB stepped in and didn’t die against Wisconsin. It is encouraging that Kugler has fared alright against 2 very bad teams. Same for Bredeson. At least we know Michigan won’t be down to walk-ons like they have been on the verge of using in years past. Newsome is going to be missed but he was also the weakest link.
The next 4 weeks are about staying healthy and improving the pass game (protection, accuracy, etc.). Keep in mind that Harbaugh’s playbook is pretty complicated for a college program – a lot is being asked of Speight. Yes, you’d like to see more progress – especially in the short/medium game like Thunder said. But you can see positives too: composure, long-ball touch, avoiding pressure have all been pretty great for a new starter.
Nobody should be the “bring in backup QB!” guy. Let’s give Harbaugh a little respect. Speight’s shown more than enough to see why Harbaugh saw him as the best option. We don’t know much about O’Korn but we know a lot about Harbaugh.
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Come on…seriously? You’re really worried about how our backup’s backups played in the last six minutes of the worst beatdown in the history of the Big Ten conference?
Like other posters, hope this is mostly sarcasm.
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Wow, Roanman…I think this might be the biggest negative vote (currently at -35) in TTB history.
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Thanks, I’ll admit that I was hoping to hit my age, but as the current record holder, I’m pleased.
I thought that the part about getting gashed for first downs late was particularly good.
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Facetious.
I seldom do sarcasm.
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I can tho ….. if I want to.
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Jut saying’.
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Still chasing Lanky.
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Speight is just a game manager but he is the best of what we have right now. O’Korn does not look conforable in the pocket and gets happy feet, Morris shouldn’t be allowed to throw the ball. There should be an upgrade in QB and Oline once the players that have been recruited and coached up by Harbaugh and Drevno take over but for now we’ll be muddling through with the players that were inherited. The previous regime had a good eye for defensive talent (probably thanks in large part to Mattison), but the offensive talent that Borges brought in is lacking.
De’Veon Smith has always been up and down from game to game, he didn’t look in this game, but we’ll need his tackle breaking ability in the future. He is a good option to have, but is not a starter quality every down back.
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The first game I attend as a kid at Michigan Stadium was in 1987 against the Long Beach State 49ers of the Pacific Coast Athletic Association. Michigan beat the 49ers 49-0. Bo, Jaime Morris, Mark Messner, etc. It was the most lopsided game I could remember before last night. 49ers football was disbanded 3 seasons later and the conference they played in no longer exists.
Rutgers is supposed to be a Big 10 team but looked like a Pacific Coast Athletic Association team.
For all the fun that was, and it was a lot of fun, we learned almost nothing meaningful about our team. Mostly, it reinforced what we already have come to expect (Elite D, improved run game, inconsistent QB.).
What we did learn Saturday is that the road to OSU is even easier than we thought – and the computer algorithms already had us as 80% or better to win each of them. Iowa is 4-2 but they barely beat Rutgers and struggled against Minnesota. MSU is flat-out mess. Maryland lost to Penn State. Illinois lost to Purdue. Indiana is probably the best team we’ll face before OSU and they lost to Wake Forest.
Rutgers have been throttled by all 3 of the elite teams they’ve faced. Washington led 24-0 after 1Q, OSU 30-0 at half. While neither team dominated Rutgers as thoroughly as Michigan, they did thoroughly dominate them. So more evidence we’re in that club, but not much about where we fit within in.
This is the downside of playing an easy non-conference schedule and a soft conference schedule. We’ll know very little about our chances against OSU until late November. Indiana’s O and Wisconsin’s D look to be the closest thing we’ll have to good preparation.
All we have to draw on for information about playing OSU are glimpses. Against Wisconsin’s D, Michigan ran the ball OK (mostly on the ground) but didn’t score very much. Against Colorado’s O Michigan gave up 10 ypa and 3 passing TDs before the QB got hurt. Against UCF’s O Michigan gave up 300 yards rushing.
Will these early season lows matter at all in Columbus? It’s hard to say.
Takeaways from the Michigan game:
-Since Bredeson was already in at OG we still don’t know if it’s Kugler over Bredeson or vice versa if one of our tackles go down or JBB falters.
-Smith’s fumble was unexpected. I don’t think anyone knows what his penance is going to be, but with the bye and Illinois coming up we might not see much of him till MSU. I don’t think it’s anything like what we saw with Isaac last year since Isaac fumbled twice and was already on thin ice.
-They tried to hit Chesson long a couple times while the game was still somewhat competitive, which I saw as encouraging.
-The backups on D still looked good against Rutgers. Doesn’t mean much but the opposite would have been discouraging.
-A lot of the burned red-shirts got burned for good yesterday. No chance for injury waivers anymore. Notable ones: Onwenu (played both ways), McKeon, Mbem-Bossu, Mettelus, Hill. I believe possible red-shirts remain on the table (with an injury waiver) for Long, Gil, Uche, Dwumfour, Davis, Johnson, and Nordin. Long and Nordin are surprises to me, compared to preseason expectations.
Status quo otherwise, unless I missed something.
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Worth noting also that USC’s performance against Colorado was more convincing despite the scoreboard. Michigan outgained Colorado by 70 yards while USC outgained them by 160, despite 3 fumbles lost. USC did have the advantage of playing the backup QB for more of the game (who Michigan totally shut down).
Nothing definitive, but if you’re trying to parse where Michigan belongs in the top 5 teams in the country (or if they have the #1 D in the country), you’d like to see Colorado do a bit better in these matchups.
FWIW, I don’t think you can call us the #1 D in the country when Alabama is doing what it’s doing. Maybe we are, but with our schedule being so easy the case is dismissed for lack of evidence.
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yeah the #1 D often changes week to week and whatnot and usually takes longer than a month to determine though michigan is right up there. bama, clemson and washington (along with m) all have the athletes and ability to be the #1 D and have typically executed and played consistent ball (though it often depends on week to week matchups and whatnot). but those 4 teams (with osu at 5) have been the top 4 Ds this year, at least based on what ive seen
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Although Colorado wasn’t playing with their starter. Backup Montez.
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I believe Long played last night; #22, bottom of the screen in the 4Q?
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Maybe. He wasn’t listed here though:
http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/100816aaa.html
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Not saying MGoBlue is wrong, but I coulda sworn I saw him at CB, and even chase a KR out of bounds late in the game
Only reason I bring it up is because I still don’t get some of the RS we’ve burned. I think if you’re not on the 2deep at your O/D position, sit and let someone else play SpTms
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Long definitely played last night.
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It’s not just about 2nd string, but guys who will be called into action if an injury strikes. In the modern era of more rotation this includes a lot of positions.
I don’t get McKeon and would have liked either Hill or Long to have red-shirted. Otherwise, no heartburn. Most of the kids playing are going to be significant contributors next year and if ever there was a NOW IS THE TIME season, this is it.
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McKeon gives Michigan 4 Freshman TEs (along with Wheatley, Asiasi, and Gentry). Bunting is only 1 class ahead. Eubanks one behind (I think – he might have played too?). That’s a logjam that you don’t like to see, and probably explains (along with the departures of Mitchell and Hawkins) why Gentry is working at WR.
Michigan faces the rare case where they don’t need to take any TE in the ’17 class. That will put some pressure on the 2018 class, but nothing to worry about.
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yes next year will be highly unusual (at least for michigan of late) in that theyre losing a crazy number of players overall and many of them are starters or significant contributors. many of the people complaining about burned redshirts may not be fully aware how many players theyre losing and the effect itll have – they need guys to step up across the board. young players (and they will certainly be young since the 2016 and 2017 recruiting classes will comprise like 55-60 scholarships out of 85 total) will need to step up and play early at virtually every spot on the roster, at least in some capacity. they have QB, RB, TE, etc returning but theyll need 1st or 2nd year guys to play big minutes at WR, RB, OL, DL, LB, CB, S – theyll have some 2013-2015 recruits littered throughout the 2 deep but its gonna be a ton of young guys. so i dont mind any burned redshirts. almost all are justified. its much easier to step in and contribute as a true soph with some legit game experience vs redshirt frosh with zero experience (and especially when were not just talking a couple guys but like 15 thatl benefit from some PT this year before competing for a role again next year). sure, its nice to redshirt guys, especially at certain spots, and their future value as 5th year players might exceed value as frosh but sometimes teams dont have that luxury. theres only a handful of frosh that will redshirt and thats the way it should be, given these particular circumstances and the projected roster
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I think most know about the seniors, they just don’t see at as any more complicated than burned red-shirt = burned 5th year.
Preparation, recruiting, etc. is harder to evaluate than CAN HAVE 5th YEAR!
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>> “The broadcast was atrocious”
Once again, I was listening rather than watching.
And for this game, Sirius offered no “home” broadcast, so I settled into listening to the Rutgers broadcast crew for this game. They were fairly good — I was able to follow the progress of the game easily; the description of play set, action, and results was concise and fluid; and despite their team being beaten badly by Michigan they stayed respectful and professional. They gave the highest of praise for Michigan’s defense, which they repeatedly said was “the real deal.”
This fall I’ve listened to a good number of radio broadcasts by the broadcast teams other schools — Texas, Oklahoma, MSU, Rutgers … and in every case I listened to those broadcasters were more polished than Brandstatter for Michigan. Michigan can do better … and should.
As for the game … agree with the comments above that we didn’t learn much from this game other than Michigan is capable of prevailing big over a vastly over-matched team. The offense didn’t strike me as giant killer here; rather more increasingly effective as the game went on and the Rutgers defense wore down because they were on the field so much.
For a game where the score was 78-0 you’d figure Michigan would have performed better than “only” 6-11 on 3rd down conversions.
Last night’s game was a fun … it was a win; it was additional reps, which means additional experience … but it was not as valuable from a season perspective as was the Colorado game (coming back from a 28-7 deficit), or the Wisconsin game (toughing it out to the last whistle).
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Michigan has yet to see anything remotely close to OSU and won’t until that game. We thought OSU or Iowa might be high hurdles, but it doesn’t look like it anymore.
According to S&P, OSU is the #1 team in the country. Colorado #37. Wisconsin #20. Weirdly, Penn State is #18 which seems like a flaw in their algorithm somehow from the Michigan perspective of having played both back to back. Less so if you look past the scoreboard and consider the similar(ish) yardage differential, penalties disadvantage for PSU, and turnover luck (fumble lost) affected PSU. Everybody else Michigan will play is ranked below 40.
UCF was probably the 3rd most instructive situation, since their offense is at least somewhat comparable to OSU. Iowa and MSU will be road games. Rutgers hardly counts, even for that.
So, we’ll get glimpses here and there for test to come. A top 10 D in Wisconsin, a tough road environment at MSU, a spread offense in UCF, a dangerous QB for Colorado. OSU will bring all of it, at once, and the toughest versions of each we’ll see.
I really hope Harbaugh and company are using this bye week to work on OSU.
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MSU and Iowa will be tough games, both are on the road against teams that can play defense. Indiana will once against be tricky because of the pace they play at. We have a decent chance of going to Columbus at 11-0 but don’t make the mistake on writing anyone, especially MSU off, They will show up to play at home.
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MSU is still the second biggest game on the schedule. But they don’t look like the second best team on it anymore. This is not a top 25 team, let alone a top 10 team. Still a tough spot for M, since it’s their first real road game and Sparty’ll be up for it, but not as tough as it looked in August.
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Anything can happen in those games. I think it would be a mistake to overlook MSU in favor of OSU. There are four weeks between MSU and OSU, so there’s plenty of time to prepare if you need that full time.
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We have an extra week in there. You don’t need 2 weeks of prep for MSU and you can’t play Indiana, Iowa, and Maryland without preparing for them. The bye is the only chance they have for extra prep for OSU.
The team has to work on running the plays they need to run, but the coaching and support staff should be scouting the hell out of OSU weaknesses.
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