Preview: Michigan at UConn

Tag: James Ross


21Sep 2013
Uncategorized 19 comments

Preview: Michigan at UConn

Rush Offense vs. UConn Rush Defense
The Wolverines have better rushing statistics than it might seem; they’re averaging 4.96 yards/carry, but that’s propped up by quarterback Devin Gardner’s 30 carries for 237 yards (7.9 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (55 carries, 199 yards, 3.6 yards/carry, 3 touchdowns) looks recovered from his broken leg, but the offensive line is struggling to open holes. Primary backup Derrick Green has just 2 carries for 2 yards in the last couple games, so he’s not really a factor in tight games. UConn’s opponents are averaging 4.57 yards/carry; that list of opponents includes Maryland and FCS team Towson. Redshirt junior linebacker Yawin Smallwood (6’4″, 236 lbs.) leads the team in tackles with 30, and the next guy on the list is redshirt freshman safety Obi Melifonwu (6’4″, 208 lbs.) with 15. Melifonwu and and fifth year senior strongside end Tim Willman (6’4″, 267 lbs.) lead the team with 1.5 tackles for loss each. The Huskies have decent size up front with redshirt senior weakside end Jesse Joseph (6’3″, 262 lbs.), redshirt senior defensive tackle Shamar Stephen (6’5′, 313 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore defensive tackle Julian Campenni (6’0″, 298 lbs.). If UConn uses their vanilla 4-3 Over front, Michigan should be able to handle the front four pretty well, but Smallwood can fly all over the field. My guess is that Michigan’s offensive linemen come out angry and create some of the holes that were lacking against Akron last week.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. UConn Pass Defense
Gardner has been up and down this year, completing 47/78 passes (60.3%) for 704 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has made some poor decisions in the passing game, and he has a tendency to lock onto his favorite receiver, Jeremy Gallon (18 catches, 297 yards, 4 touchdowns). Sophomore tight end Devin Funchess is the next most targeted receiver (7 catches, 131 yards, 1 touchdown), but the other guys have been somewhat pedestrian. One potential breakout player is 6’3″, 196 lb. redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson, who caught a 33-yard touchdown pass last week and could develop into a deep threat. Melifonwu and senior cornerback Taylor Mack (5’9″, 175 lbs.) have the team’s only two picks thus far, but Melifonwu in particular is speed-deficient and could be taken advantage of in the passing game. As for the pass rush, well . . . Connecticut has zero sacks in two games. Smallwood had 3.5 last year, but 22.5 of their 33 sacks graduated after last season. They would be smart to run some twist stunts to confuse the young offensive guards, but as for pure athleticism and skill, it’s not really there.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. UConn Rush Offense
Redshirt junior running back Lyle McCombs (5’8″, 175 lbs.) averaged 3.54 yards/carry in 2012, and this year he’s all the way up to 3.58. He’s the only significant ball carrier for the Huskies. Sixth year senior left tackle Jimmy Bennett (6’9″, 307 lbs.), redshirt senior Steven Greene (6’5″, 308 lbs.), redshirt junior Alex Mateas (6’4″, 315 lbs.), redshirt junior Gus Cruz (6’4″, 309 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore Xavier Hemingway (6’5″, 273 lbs.) make up the line from left to right. Michigan holds opponents to 3.45 yards/carry, and the front seven is considered to be a strength, especially against pro-style running teams. Connecticut can’t outmuscle the Wolverines if fifth year senior nose tackle Quinton Washington and/or sophomore nose tackle Ondre Pipkins is on the field. Junior middle linebacker Desmond Morgan and sophomore weakside linebacker James Ross are both very good against the run, so McCombs should find it to be tough sledding. I doubt the Huskies will be able to do much in the running game.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. UConn Pass Offense
Redshirt junior Chandler Whitmer (6’1″, 193 lbs.) is the Huskies’ quarterback. He completed 57.6% of his passes for 2,664 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions as a starter last year, and this year he’s upped that percentage to 60.8% while throwing for 3 scores and 3 picks. Redshirt junior Shakim Phillips (6’2″, 209 lbs.) is his favorite target with 15 catches for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns; classmate Geremy Davis (6’3″, 215 lbs.) led the team in receiving in 2012 and has 10 catches for 154 yards this season; and junior slot receiver Deshon Foxx (5’10”, 172 lbs.) has 4 catches for 54 yards. Meanwhile, Michigan has 5 sacks thus far, 4 of which have come from SAM linebackers Brennen Beyer and Cam Gordon. The Wolverines also have 5 picks, 3 of them dropping into the hands of redshirt sophomore corner Blake Countess. Michigan’s defensive backs seem to be playing too far off their receivers this year, causing too few breakups and some easy completions. Unless that philosophy changes, I expect a lot of short completions and then some shots down the field.
Advantage: UConn

Roster Notes

  • Zero Huskies players hail from the Great Lakes State.
  • Offensive coordinator/wide receivers coach T.J. Weist was a grad assistant at Michigan from 1990-93.
  • Quarterbacks coach Shane Day was a quality control assistant at Michigan in 2006.
  • Director of Football Alumni/Community Affairs Andy Blaylock got a graduate degree from Michigan in 1962.
  • On a personal note, I saw presentations by Connecticut head coach Paul Pasqualoni and running backs coach Kermit Buggs (at Penn State) at coaching clinics in recent years.
Predictions

  • Michigan turns on the jets in the running game, going for 250 yards total.
  • Greg Mattison keeps the corners in soft coverage because he thinks his guys can beat the other guys, anyway.
  • Michigan comes out pissed off and embarrassed by last week’s performance, taking out their frustrations on the Huskies and knocking Whitmer out of the game.
  • Michigan 38, UConn 14
Last Time They Played . . . 

  • Denard Robinson’s first career start at quarterback netted 197 rushing yards, 186 passing yards, and a 30-10 victory.
  • True freshman Devin Gardner entered the game when Robinson got nicked up, running for -4 yards and attempting 0 passes.
  • Terrence Robinson had 1 catch for 43 yards, the longest play of the day.
  • Obi Ezeh led the team in tackles with 9, adding a fumble recovery

29Aug 2013
Uncategorized 20 comments

2013 Season Predictions

Here are my 2012 predictions, in case you’re interested.

Leading Rusher
Michigan no longer has a quarterback who’s much of a threat to lead the team in rushing, although he’s a pretty good runner. Fitzgerald Toussaint is the best running back currently on the roster, but he struggles to stay healthy. I make this choice with very little confidence.
Prediction: Toussaint, 900 yards

Leading Receiver
The top receiver returns from last year, and that player has great chemistry with quarterback Devin Gardner. Jeremy Gallon had 829 receiving yards last season, despite having Denard Robinson as the primary passer for the first half of the season. Gallon should see an uptick in receptions and yardage this season, but without another proven threat, he might be bracketed a little more often.
Prediction: Gallon, 1100 yards

Leading Tackler
Strongside linebacker Jake Ryan led the team in tackles with 88 last year, but he’s out with a torn ACL until at least October. The choice comes down to middle linebacker Desmond Morgan or weakside linebacker James Ross III, and I think I’ll go with sophomore Ross, whose instincts are unmatched by anyone else on the team.
Prediction: Ross, 90 tackles

Leading Sacker
Ryan also led the team in sacks with 5.5 last season, but he probably won’t have time to get to the quarterback that much since he’ll miss half the season or so. There’s been a lot of buzz about weakside end Frank Clark’s improvement this offseason, and I think he’ll gather a few sacks in some early season games against the likes of Central Michigan and Akron.
Prediction: Clark, 8 sacks

Leading Interceptor
The safeties aren’t huge playmakers, and the best cornerback (Blake Countess) is coming off a torn ACL. Countess has good cover skills but has never been known as a true ball hawk. I think three players end up tied for this honor.
Prediction: Countess, Thomas Gordon, Raymon Taylor, 2 interceptions each

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon, Taylor Lewan

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
I’m calling 10 touchdowns for Toussaint and Gallon rushing and receiving, respectively, but add a couple touchdowns through the air for Toussaint.
Prediction: Toussaint

Breakout Offensive Player
There are a few options for breakout players. I’m not going to count Devin Funchess, who already showed what he can do last season, even if he didn’t get targeted much toward the end of the year. This leaves some backup running backs and whoever shows up across from Gallon. I think I’ll go with Jehu Chesson, who should be targeted plenty.
Prediction: Chesson

Breakout Defensive Player
This is a really tough choice, because I foresee a few guys stepping up this year to make some plays: Frank Clark, James Ross, and Cam Gordon. I’m most confident in Ross, but I think the other two will take large steps forward as well.
Prediction: Ross

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
I think the interior of the offensive line is going to struggle, and that starts with redshirt sophomore Jack Miller. Miller will be a new starter and he’s not the biggest or strongest of guys, so there will be both mental and physical issues there.
Prediction: Miller

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
I think the issues at free safety will carry over from last season, when Jarrod Wilson really struggled as a backup. This year senior Courtney Avery is competing with sophomore Wilson for the job, but Avery’s out for a couple weeks after arthroscopic knee surgery. Wilson has good physical abilities, but gets himself out of position too much.
Prediction: Wilson

The Big Finish
August 31 vs. Central Michigan: WIN. The Chippewas are a mediocre MAC team.

September 7 vs. Notre Dame: WIN. Notre Dame got lucky a lot last season, and while their defensive front seven will still be good, the offense will sputter too much.

September 14 vs. Akron: WIN. Another mediocre MAC team.

September 21 at Connecticut: WIN. If for no other reason than the fact that I saw Paul Pasqualoni at a clinic this offseason and didn’t care for his attitude, I’m picking the Wolverines.

October 5 vs. Minnesota: WIN. Jerry Kill has a good history of improving teams, so I don’t think it will be a cake walk, but Michigan is more talented.

October 12 at Penn State: WIN. I have a feeling Penn State will drop off a little bit after the emotion of last season carrying them a little bit. It won’t be easy, but I think Michigan wins.

October 19 vs. Indiana: WIN. Indiana isn’t very good at the football, but the offense will be entertaining.

November 2 at Michigan State: WIN. The Spartans will have a good defense, but they’ll struggle this year on offense. Michigan is more balanced.

November 9 vs. Nebraska: LOSS. After the emotion of beating MSU and facing a pretty good team in the Cornhuskers, Michigan loses a squeaker.

November 16 at Northwestern: WIN. Michigan is getting more athletic on defense, and Jake Ryan should be back by this point to help out defensively. It might be a shootout again, but I pick the Wolverines.

November 23 at Iowa: WIN. Iowa will probably be bad.

November 30 vs. Ohio State: LOSS. Michigan just won’t have the running game to keep Ohio State honest because of the mediocre interior line.

Final record: 10-2

23Aug 2013
Uncategorized 18 comments

2013 Season Countdown: #6 James Ross III

James Ross III

Name: James Ross III
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 220 lbs.
High school: Orchard Lake (MI) St. Mary’s
Position: Linebacker
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #15
Last year: I ranked Ross #62 and said he would be a backup linebacker and special teams contributor. He started two games and played in all thirteen, making 36 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and .5 sacks.

Ross was one of my favorite and highest rated players coming into 2012, and he didn’t disappoint. Early practice buzz suggested he was going to be hard to keep off the field, and that held true once the season began. When starting WILL linebacker Desmond Morgan missed the Iowa game due to injury, Ross stepped in and made a career-high 12 tackles. This spring when Desmond Morgan moved from WILL to MIKE to replace the graduated Kenny Demens, Ross was inserted into the starting lineup.

I expect good things from Ross this year. He’s excellent at diagnosing plays and he can cover a lot of ground. He struggled a little bit with pass drops last season, but that’s a problem for many young linebackers. Ross’s primary backup on the depth chart is sophomore Royce Jenkins-Stone, whom I don’t really trust yet as a football player. I suspect that if Ross were to miss any length of time, Morgan might slide back over to WILL to make room for sophomore Joe Bolden, who’s a superior player to Jenkins-Stone. Morgan, Bolden, and Ross are three starter-quality inside linebackers, but then there’s a drop-off to Jenkins-Stone and a freshman like Ben Gedeon. If Michigan’s defensive line can keep offensive linemen off of the linebackers, I think Ross could be in the discussion for all-conference honors by the end of the year.

Prediction: Starting weakside linebacker; 90 tackles, 2 sacks

13Apr 2013
Uncategorized 3 comments

Spring Game Preview: Michigan vs. Michigan

Devin Gardner

Top five things to watch for when Michigan has the ball . . . 
1. That Devin Gardner’s ACL stays intact. Michigan has already lost two players to ACL tears this spring (linebacker Jake Ryan and backup quarterback Russell Bellomy). An injury to Gardner would be catastrophic, since redshirt freshman walk-on Brian Cleary is the current backup and Shane Morris won’t arrive until June.

2. The interior offensive line. Michigan’s defensive line should be playing at a pretty high level because of the guys who return on that side, so will the three “starters” at left guard, center, and right guard get the job done?  Those three positions seem to be held by Ben Braden, Jack Miller, and Joe Burzynski currently, but there are a few players hot on their heels.

3. Who’s next at wide receiver? We know Jeremy Gallon can be an explosive player, and we know what Michigan has in Drew Dileo and Jeremy Jackson.  Redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson has made some nice plays in practice, and sophomore Amara Darboh has done the same.  At least one of those two guys needs to step up by the fall if Michigan wants to have a high-powered offense.

4. Adequate Michigan running backs. The chance that we see a stellar performance from any of the currently available running backs looks slim.  With fifth year senior Fitzgerald Toussaint out with a broken leg, the job comes down to junior Thomas Rawls, redshirt sophomore Justice Hayes, sophomore Dennis Norfleet, and redshirt freshman Drake Johnson.  Rawls and Hayes have been unimpressive in their live game action so far – although Rawls did have a long touchdown in garbage time last year – and Norfleet was mostly limited to kickoff returns last season.  Drake Johnson has earned praise from the coaches at times, but he has looked so-so in a few spring practice clips.  It would be nice to see a developing, viable option this spring, but we might have to wait until Toussaint comes back or until Derrick Green arrives on campus.

5. What does the offense look like these days? Denard Robinson is gone, and we all loved him, but now Michigan should have an actual, bona fide quarterback.  The kind of quarterback that can sit in the pocket and throw the ball without tricking the defense into thinking it might be a run.  I don’t expect Al Borges to give much away in a spring game, but we should get an inkling of the direction he wants to take the offense.  If the Pistol isn’t installed by now, I would expect to see it in the fall; I also expect a little more threat of the downfield pass this year.

Top five things to watch for when Michigan is on defense . . .
1. How does Cam Gordon look filling in for the team’s best defender?
 Cam Gordon had a pretty darn good season when he was a redshirt freshman playing free safety and linebacker, although the free safety thing was a bit of a stretch.  Since that 2010 season, he has mostly been an afterthought.  Jake Ryan was a terror of a pass rusher and made his fair share of plays against the run, too, and Michigan will have to manufacture a replacement for him.

2. Safety reps. Thomas Gordon is capable of playing both safety positions, and he’s guaranteed to start at one of them.  Sophomore Jarrod Wilson can play free safety; senior Marvin Robinson can play strong.  Which player will get the most reps?

3. First world inside linebacker problems. Michigan probably has three starter-quality inside linebackers, along with some other guys who have potential.  As I have been predicting for a while, it appears junior Desmond Morgan will be your new middle linebacker (moving over from WILL) and sophomore James Ross will step in at weakside linebacker.  Meanwhile, sophomore Joe Bolden could conceivably be a starter at inside linebacker, although he might be a little large and stiff for WILL.

4. Cornerback depth. Redshirt sophomore Blake Countess might not do much in the spring game, since he’s recovering from an ACL injury.  His replacement last year, junior Raymon Taylor, continues to fight for his job, and senior Courtney Avery appears to have abandoned the nickel corner position to compete at field corner.  Two of the three will presumably start in the fall, but the starting combo we’ll likely see in the spring game will probably be Taylor and Avery.  It will also be interesting to see if young guys Delonte Hollowell and Terry Richardson have developed.

5. Freshman early enrollees. Defensive end Taco Charlton (6’6″, 265 lbs.), cornerback Ross Douglas (5’10”, 176 lbs.), and safety Dymonte Thomas (6’2″, 187 lbs.) enrolled in January, and each one has a chance to contribute somewhere in the fall.  Charlton apparently looks the part, but his technique was rough coming out of high school; Douglas came in bigger than expected; and Thomas has been practicing some at corner and some at the nickel position, both of which are departures from what he played in high school.