Shea Patterson (image via MLive)
Name: Shea Patterson
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 205 lbs.
High school: Bradenton (FL) IMG Academy
Position: Quarterback
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #2
Last year: I did not rank Patterson. He was a part-time starter at Ole Miss and was 166/260 (63.8%) for 2,259 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions.
TTB Rating: N/A
So much has been said about Patterson that there’s not much left. He was the starter at Ole Miss last year before getting injured, and then there was a whole bunch of idiocy going on at Ole Miss, and he got out of town (as did several of his teammates). He passed for 300+ yards in five out of seven games, and he had 400+ passing yards twice. In the two games where he was below 300 yards, he completed fewer than 50% of his passes, threw 0 touchdowns, and threw 5 interceptions; those games came against #1 Alabama and #18 LSU. Was that a function of those teams being very good? Was it because Ole Miss wasn’t good? Does Patterson just fold in big games? It’s hard to say.
One thing is for sure, though: there are going to be plenty of big games for Patterson to prove himself at Michigan, whether it’s Michigan State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, or Ohio State. I initially thought Patterson would have a great season this year with all the tools available to him, including a few good tight ends and a bunch of talented wide receivers like Donovan Peoples-Jones, Tarik Black, Eddie McDoom, Grant Perry, Nico Collins, etc. Unfortunately, McDoom transferred and Black is on the shelf with a broken foot. I think Patterson’s season may be trending downward, but if I could put him even higher on this list, I would. With every receiver that drops out of the picture, that raises the importance of having Patterson healthy. Patterson is a guy who can extend plays, which can help guys with maybe a little less talent get open. Michigan is undoubtedly going to roll out some walk-ons or young guys who aren’t quite ready, but that’s the nature of the game sometimes. I expect Michigan’s offense to evolve a little bit this year, become a little more up-tempo, and become more spread-oriented. Patterson is likely going to throw some silly interceptions and take care of the ball less than what we want as fans, but sometimes his gambles will pay off in big ways, too.
Prediction: Starting quarterback; 3100 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions
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Not sure about the downward trajectory thing. But …
At Thunder’s projection for Patterson, and our two top RBs, thats 4,850 total yards out of three guys, without any running yardage from Patterson. 3,100 is probably 60-80 more than Barrett got done throwing last year as he barely squeaked by 3,000. And yes, he was a significantly more threatening runner.
That’s 5,000+ yards total offense. I’ll take that too. But … I think it could be a bunch better.
For starters, I’m buying everything in yesterday’s post about a “Harbaugh spread”. Every single idea proposed in that piece is something Harbaugh has done something similar too in the past. I don’t think there was one ounce of conjecture or making stuff up in the whole piece. I’m also buying the notion that we won’t be doing a whole lot of pass blocking. We are going to run block a lot on passing downs, throw quick outs, slants, drags and the occasional wheel to Evans that at the very least will appear to be some RPO or other simple option scheme based on the easy reads were gonna get from the physical mismatches we can create all over the field. Then when your safeties come down and your corners start wanting to jump routes, we’ll be taking our shots.
I also think that we will get to run a lot of plays because I just don’t see us giving up a lot of drives. Wisconsin is the most significant threat on that issue, I believe. Sparty maybe. I’m not sure the Buckeyes can get it done on the ground against us, so their young QB is going to need to be as good as he was against us last time … with us having actually had a look at him in advance this time. That’ll be a test … for him.
I can see us absolutely feasting and getting beau coup game reps on offense against some of the lighter BIG front sevens, who will wear down. Finally, I have myself talked into absolutely thinking that we should be platooning at RG and hopefully RT for meaningful snaps. Fresh Onwenu at 6 gone in the fourth quarter strike me as one of the better ideas of the year. Hope somebody that matters is listening in here.
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I’d take those stats any day. It’d place Patterson in nice UM company, get him drafted, and mean we have a really good shot at Indy
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Overall stats are not what will make the difference. It will be whether Patterson can step up in the tough games and make winning plays, and avoid losing mistakes. Can he hit the big 3rd down passes under pressure and bring us from behind on the road in the last 5 minutes.
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No kidding WCB, but – historically speaking – when a Michigan QB reaches those stats, we’ve had a good year
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Ok…….
Everyone is about Total Yards but there’s also an alternative perspective that may be more realistically definitive:
https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football-fsu-noles/2018/8/27/17788190/trash-total-yards-stats-evaluating-florida-state-average-per-play-offense-defense
INTJohn
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I hope the rumors of spread are legit. Many reasons to think they are not. Probably boils down to the definition of ‘spread’ so I’ll avoid that word and just note a few things.
Harbaugh has a long track record of heavy personnel, bunch formations, and motion. He’s not afraid to run his QB in limited doses, but if given a choice he’ll let his RBs pound away.
Personnel. WR corps are thin and unproven. Contrast w/ 2 TEs that appear to be good to excellent as receiving threats. And a 3rd guy who seemed like a boom/bust prospect that’s entirely on the right track. A FB who seems damn near prototypical. 2 veteran RBs.
The playcalling staff returns intact, more or less. Depending on what responsibilities you think Drevno had and McElwain will have.
A jumbo-sized OL that can mash on the ground and is questionable at best in pass pro.
I’m doing the ‘math’ in my head and it doesn’t add up.
I’ve heard the rumors too. I hope they’re as true as they are persistent. But sometimes theres a cycle to these things. Hopes become rumors and rumors recirculate till they’re expectations.
I have no doubt Harbaugh will be creative, try to exploit matchups, put people in motion, cater play-calling to personnel. He’s an excellent coach. But spread? I guess we’ll find out in a few days.
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I’m skeptical as well about how much we’ll do this year that truly qualifies as “spread”. Not enough quality wide receivers to worry defenses, and not that much overall team speed. Patterson may be able to make plays with his feet, but how effective he is on designed QB runs is another matter, and I seriously question how much contact we want to intentionally subject him to in any case. Peters and McCaffrey are even more statue-like.
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Didn’t john runyan jr already say it? We’re still the same offense, but with a little “flavor” added
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That’s more like what I would expect. And hopefully by “flavor” he means “scoring”.
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If you could decipher meaning from Runyan’s “it’s the same but different” contradictions, Kudos to you.
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Nice job on the Countdown Thunder. Enjoyable read as always.
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Thank you.
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Thanks for the countdown, Thunder! I know a lot of time and effort went into this, and it’s a pleasure reading every day.
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Thanks, and thanks for reading!
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Thanks for the countdown. Something I look forward to every day.
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Thanks for reading!
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My opinions (AKA “HOT TAKES”) on recent Michigan QBs:
Shea Patterson IS an NFL QB. I don’t know about early entry though. Patterson probably needs to have an excellent year to overcome questions about less than prototypical size. OL, WR, and scheme uncertainty may or may not lend themselves to it in 2018.
Brandon Peters…MIGHT BE an NFL QB. I haven’t given up hope, despite the discouraging sophomore year. Some guys aren’t built to step into a high profile gig as redshirt freshman. Tom Brady wasn’t.
Wilton Speight IS an NFL QB. I suspect he learned a lot at Michigan and will continue to learn a lot from Chip Kelly. Two of the best offensive minds and QB gurus in college football.
John O’Korn IS NOT an NFL QB. Though the 2017 offense made him look farther from it than he actually is. Poor guy.
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