RUSH OFFENSE vs. WISCONSIN RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan has sneaked into the top 30 in rushing offense with almost 230 yards/game, and they’ve managed to get to #20 in yards/carry at 5.41 without a QB who’s a threat to run. Four players have between 22 and 39 carries, so it’s a running-back-by-committee situation, even if De’Veon Smith is the unquestioned starter. In fact, the numbers look like vintage Wisconsin running backs with all four of those guys (Smith, Ty Isaac, Karan Higdon, Chris Evans) averaging 4.6 to 7.3 yards/carry. The offensive line had perhaps its best performance of the year against Penn State last week, though PSU’s skeleton crew of linebackers were unable to do much. I named Erik Magnuson the MVP of the game, and Pro Football Focus ended up agreeing that he was very good. Wisconsin is #10 in rush defense, giving up just over 80 yards/game, and they’re #27 with 3.19 yards allowed/carry. They have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season, and that includes games against potential Heisman winner Leonard Fournette and run-heavy Michigan State. Inside linebacker Jack Cichy (6’2″, 233 lbs.) leads the team with 23 tackles, and outside linebacker T.J. Watt (J.J.’s 6’5″, 243 lb. brother) is second with 18 stops. Watt is tough on the edge, but Cichy is the run-stopper up the middle and has the ability to slice into gaps for TFLs. This is the best linebacker crew Michigan will face all season, except maybe Ohio State. I really like the way they play ball. The defensive line is so-so, despite having a 340 lb. nose tackle in Olive Sagapolu. Michigan has put up good stats against weak or weakened opponents this year, but the Badgers will be tough to run against, even if the rumors are true that outside linebacker Vince Biegel won’t play due to injury (UPDATE: while writing this, he was indeed ruled out after having foot surgery).
Advantage: Wisconsin
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