RUSH OFFENSE vs. WISCONSIN RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan has sneaked into the top 30 in rushing offense with almost 230 yards/game, and they’ve managed to get to #20 in yards/carry at 5.41 without a QB who’s a threat to run. Four players have between 22 and 39 carries, so it’s a running-back-by-committee situation, even if De’Veon Smith is the unquestioned starter. In fact, the numbers look like vintage Wisconsin running backs with all four of those guys (Smith, Ty Isaac, Karan Higdon, Chris Evans) averaging 4.6 to 7.3 yards/carry. The offensive line had perhaps its best performance of the year against Penn State last week, though PSU’s skeleton crew of linebackers were unable to do much. I named Erik Magnuson the MVP of the game, and Pro Football Focus ended up agreeing that he was very good. Wisconsin is #10 in rush defense, giving up just over 80 yards/game, and they’re #27 with 3.19 yards allowed/carry. They have only allowed 1 rushing touchdown this season, and that includes games against potential Heisman winner Leonard Fournette and run-heavy Michigan State. Inside linebacker Jack Cichy (6’2″, 233 lbs.) leads the team with 23 tackles, and outside linebacker T.J. Watt (J.J.’s 6’5″, 243 lb. brother) is second with 18 stops. Watt is tough on the edge, but Cichy is the run-stopper up the middle and has the ability to slice into gaps for TFLs. This is the best linebacker crew Michigan will face all season, except maybe Ohio State. I really like the way they play ball. The defensive line is so-so, despite having a 340 lb. nose tackle in Olive Sagapolu. Michigan has put up good stats against weak or weakened opponents this year, but the Badgers will be tough to run against, even if the rumors are true that outside linebacker Vince Biegel won’t play due to injury (UPDATE: while writing this, he was indeed ruled out after having foot surgery).
Advantage: Wisconsin
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
PASS OFFENSE vs. WISCONSIN PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #65 with 238 yards passing/game and #41 in passer rating. Starting QB Wilton Speight has completed 63.2% of his passes for 7.7 yards/attempt, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. While the numbers look good, I think he has been very shaky. He takes what the defense gives him, but he hasn’t really shown an ability to fit the ball into tight windows or hit deep throws unless the receivers are wide open. Michigan is unlikely to get receivers or tight ends as wide open in this game as they have against their first four opponents. This game is more like the Colorado team, against whom Speight had his worst day (16/30, 229 yards, 1 TD). Wide receiver Amara Darboh leads the team in receiving yards (248), while tight end Jake Butt leads in catches (19). The Wolverines are #32 in sacks allowed with just 5 through four games. Meanwhile, UW is tied for #27 with 11 sacks so far, led by Watt with 4.5. The Badgers are tied for #10 in interceptions with 6, led by cornerback Derrick Tindal with 2. I’m not as high on the defensive backs as the linebackers, but it’s a solid crew, and both Tindal and his opposite, Sojourn Shelton, are sticky cover guys. The Badgers aren’t very big in the secondary with the 5’9″ Shelton and 5’10” safety Leo Musso, so Michigan’s tight ends (and running backs) could present an issue.
Advantage: Wisconsin
RUSH DEFENSE vs. WISCONSIN RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #40 in rushing defense (122.5 yards allowed/game) and #36 in yards allowed/carry. Middle linebacker Ben Gedeon leads the squad with 36 tackles, and Jabrill Peppers has 33. The Wolverines lead the nation in tackles for loss with 44, and Peppers is tied for the national individual lead with 9.5. The Wolverines have a wide array of defensive linemen, and that group was strengthened by the return of Taco Charlton from injury last week. Backup nose tackle Bryan Mone might miss this game like he has missed the past three, but Michigan still has a very good group to rotate. Additionally, they should be able to stay a little fresher, since Wisconsin isn’t an up-tempo team. The Badgers are #58 in rushing (184 yards/game) but #99 in rushing yards/carry (3.94). Starting running back Corey Clement’s rushing average has steadily declined over the past four years, to the point where he’s averaging just 3.86 yards/carry. He doesn’t look as explosive as he used to, and he seems more reminiscent of the average running backs Michigan has seen already this year. The primary backup is Dare Ogunbowale, who averages 4.33 yards/carry. Each of the offensive linemen is 6’6″, and they average 316 lbs. The linemen are fairly young across the board, but left tackle Ryan Ramczyk is Pro Football Focus’s top-rated tackle this season. I like Wisconsin’s linemen and they are typically exceptionally well coached, but center Brett Connors is easily duped, lacks technique, and can get manhandled pretty easily. I think he’s really going to struggle with Ryan Glasgow and Maurice Hurst, Jr. at nose tackle.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. WISCONSIN PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #12 in passing defense, allowing 147 yards/game. The passer rating against the Wolverines is #18 nationally at 102.53. The Wolverines like to blitz, and it helps that they have good pass rushers along the defensive line. Michigan is tied for #1 in sacks with 17. Michigan has only made 3 interceptions this season, but they have been without Jourdan Lewis for the first three games. Backup/nickel corner Jeremy Clark tore his ACL last week, so now that fifth defensive back will be either backup safety Tyree Kinnel or backup corner Brandon Watson. Neither has been particularly productive, although Kinnel seems to be the more consistent player. Starting corner Channing Stribling leads the team in pass breakups with 3 and had a pick-six in the opener, but he’s only the second-best corner on the team now that Lewis has returned from injury. Wisconsin is #70 in passing offense (226 yards/game) and #58 in passer rating. The Badgers started redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook last week, and he went 16/26 for 195 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception against Michigan State last week. I thought he looked a bit like a left-handed Speight when I watched last week’s game. He didn’t throw a great ball or make spectacular decisions, but he made a few good throws and moved the ball. MSU is a good defense, but I couldn’t help thinking he got a little bit lucky. Wide receiver Jazz Peavy (6’0″, 184 lbs.) is the more dangerous of the wideouts and averages over 17 yards/catch, while Rob Wheelwright (6’3″, 211 lbs.) is pretty much a pure possession guy. I was impressed with tight end Troy Fumagalli (6’6″, 248 lbs.). Wisconsin is tied for #42 in sacks allowed, but they’ve allowed just one more than the Wolverines (6 to 5).
ROSTER NOTES
- Players recruited by Michigan include: LB Vince Biegel, RB Corey Clement, DE Connor Sheehy, OT Cole Van Lanen, WR Rob Wheelwright
- Players from the state of Michigan include: OT David Moorman
- You may remember a high school QB from a couple years ago that some Michigan fans wanted the Wolverines to recruit. His name is David Edwards, and he is now a 6’7″, 285 lb. offensive tackle for the Badgers. It’s probably a good thing Michigan didn’t recruit him as a QB.
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Denard Robinson ran 22 times for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Roy Roundtree and Darryl Stonum combined for 11 catches for 213 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Jonas Mouton, Kenny Demens, and Jordan Kovacs had 13, 13, and 12 tackles, respectively
- Wisconsin 48, Michigan 28
PREDICTIONS
- Wilton Speight gets pressured into making 2 turnovers
- Alex Hornibrook throws a pick to Jourdan Lewis
- Michigan makes a game-changing play on special teams
- Michigan 28, Wisconsin 20
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I have this as a much lower score and for the preferred outcome.
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No Biegel for the Badgers. Life just got a little easier for us.
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I like the good guys big, 31-7
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I think that Peppers will have to play on offense for us to move the ball.
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So was the Georgia State game simply an anomaly for Wisconsin? Air Force beat Ga St. 48-14. You are who you are. Like in 2013 UM barely beat UCONN and AKRON. We all pawned it off as unmotivated or looking past opponents. UM was just not good that year. My gut tells me that the Badgers are over-rated. I may be wrong. This season, the Badgers beat an over-rated LSU team who beat Miss State, a team that squeezed by South Alabama and UMASS!
Thoughts?
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Ohio State went undefeated in 2012. Two of those wins were against 3-9 opponents – a 35-28 win over Cal, and a 29-15 win over UAB. They also beat a 6-7 Purdue team by one score (29-22). That OSU team might have won the national championship (if they had been eligible). You never know.
I think Wisconsin is better than what they showed against Georgia State. Sometimes you have bad days, especially against teams you think you should whoop. LSU may not be great, but they’re probably not a team that a lot of schools are going to blow out, either. They have too much talent.
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Wisconsin being one of those team in the “not going to blow out LSU” category.
Wisconsin Ain’t Played Nobody!
They’re a good quality team, probably the best we’ve faced (though Colorado might be better by season’s end), but I expect our defense to shut them down. It’s going to be interesting to see how our offense moves the ball against a legit outfit — Speight’s first real test and a chance for the run game to prove itself.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 7
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We’ll see. Wisconsin’s offense is better than Penn State’s, and Penn State scored 10 against us.
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Penn State didn’t score anything until we were up 28-0. One of PSU’s scores was after being escorted down the field by the refs on a number of very questionable penalty calls.
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They are, but
a) I would expect fewer possessions this game as PSU tries to play fast and spread the field while generating big plays (for both O and D) while Wisc wants to avoid mistakes and grind
b) PSU’s lone TD came in the 4th Q with a 35-3 score. I suspect the intensity was a bit under 110% at that point.
c) Wisconsin has quality players but lacks playmakers.
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Why do you think Corey Clement’s YPC has gone down each year from 8.2 ypc in 2013 to 3.9 ypc?
I see some parallels to Fitz Toussaint’s career where the program has declined in terms of offensive system, strategy, and OL development. I wonder if Badger fans blame their RB coach.
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Well, 8.2 yards/carry isn’t sustainable for anyone. But I think their development on the OL has dropped off, and injuries have hurt them, too. Dan Voltz being out is a big negative, IMO. But Chryst was the OC when they were doing things right in Madison. I think he can carry on their tradition, and I like a few of Wisconsin’s linemen. They’re just not developing on par with what they were a few years ago.
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Re: 8.2 not sustainable: I agree generally, but the 2 guys ahead of him on the depth chart averaged 7.8 and 6.5 ypc in 2013 on over 200 carries each. That run offense was beastly.
That was 2 years after Chryst and immediately after Bielema departed. Bielema has brought the dominant run game with him to Arkansas. Not so much Chryst at Pitt (though they did have a solid 2014).
The immediate dropoff in run game production when Chryst arrived last year (6.9 ypc to 3.8 ypc as a team) is telling IMO. We saw something similar on a samller scale in AA under Hoke (5.6 ypc in 2010 to 3.3 ypc in 2013) though Denard Robinson and the effort to keep continuity helped smooth it out over multiple years. There is a cost to multiple coaching transitions, losing the guys that built the thing you became, and holding on to something after it’s already gone.
Gordon and White (the starting backs in 2013) appear to be nothing special at the NFL level (both under 3.5 ypc) so I don’t think it’s a talent issue with Clement. Their top 3 backs (including Clement) were popping off 7ypc on average in 2013. Now this is a team struggling to get 4ypc.
OL health could be a big factor, as could Clement’s, but it seemed like a few years ago the Wisc run game was a plug-n-play machine. I suspect that they are falling off a la Oregon. (I said this in the offseason too and got chided)
Not saying that Wisconsin sucks, but the dropoff from the guy who gave the program it’s identity (or was a direct heir) is noticeable to me. I see Chryst as somewhere between Helfrich and Hoke, and I don’t think very highly of Helfrich TBH. Competent, and capable, but a clear step down.
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Anyway, I see the Wisconsin situation as supporting my point that RB talent-level is a secondary (at best) factor in run-game production. It’s easy to look like you are fast and have good vision when your OL is consistently creating holes and your instincts are supported by their performance. If they suck, you’re getting repeatedly blasted in the backfield, it’s hard to be patient and play games with LB reads, etc.
OLs make RBs, not vice versa, generally.
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re: running-back-by-committee situation
Brian Cook (per PFF) said Smith played 60% of snaps. In a blowout, that’s a lot for a primary back.
I do agree there is a committee but that’s exclusively for the backups.
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