Citrus Bowl Preview: Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense

Citrus Bowl Preview: Michigan Defense vs. Alabama Offense


January 1, 2020

I know you got an Amazon gift card for Christmas. Use it here (LINK):

With the lovely triumvirate of holidays, traveling, and illness, I ran out of time to put together a full breakdown of Alabama’s passing offense and rushing offense against Michigan’s defense. So here’s a mini-preview and some final predictions.

ALABAMA OFFENSE

  • Scoring offense: #2 (48.3 points/game)
  • Passing offense: #3 (343.5 yards/game)
  • Rushing offense: #56 (169.8 yards/game)
  • QB Mac Jones (So., 6’2″, 205): 81/116, 1176 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT filling in for injured starter Tua Tagovailoa
  • RB Najee Harris (Jr., 6’2″, 230): 188 carries, 1085 yards, 11 TD; 27 catches, 304 yards, 7 TD
  • RB Brian Robinson (Jr., 6’1″, 226): 93 carries, 425 yards, 5 TD
  • WR Jerry Jeudy (Jr., 6’1″, 192): 71 catches, 959 yards, 9 TD
  • WR Devonta Smith (Jr., 6’1″, 175): 65 catches, 1200 yards, 13 TD
  • WR Henry Ruggs III (Jr., 6’0″, 190): 38 catches, 719 yards, 7 TD
  • WR Jaylen Waddle (Jr., 5’10”, 182): 32 catches, 553 yards, 6 TD
  • TE Miller Forristall (Jr., 6’5″, 242): 12 catches, 131 yards, 3 TD

MICHIGAN DEFENSE

  • Scoring defense: #19 (19.5 points allowed/game)
  • Passing defense: #5 (173.8 yards allowed/game)
  • Rushing defense: #23 (119.1 yards allowed/game)
  • Leading tacklers: LB Khaleke Hudson (96), LB Jordan Glasgow (79), S Josh Metellus (63), DE Aidan Hutchinson (63)
  • Leading tacklers for loss: DE Kwity Paye (12.5), LB Josh Uche (11.5), DE Hutchinson (8.5)
  • Leading sackers: LB Uche (8.5), DE Paye (6.5), LB Glasgow (5.0)
  • Leading interceptors: CB Lavert Hill (3), CB Ambry Thomas (3), S Metellus (2)

PREDICTIONS

  • Najee Harris runs for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • Henry Ruggs wins game MVP with 160 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns
  • Michigan gets held below 90 rushing yards because the running backs are slow
  • Alabama 45, Michigan 27

18 comments

  1. Avatar
    Comments: 1785
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Jan 01, 2020 at 11:59 AM

    They can run right through us, without even using that scary WR group

  2. Thunder
    Comments: 3543
    Joined: 7/13/2015
    Jan 01, 2020 at 12:06 PM

    So both Mike Dwumfour and Carlo Kemp are expected to miss the game, which means Jess Speight and Chris Hinton are expected to get a lot of time.

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1785
      Joined: 1/19/2016
      je93
      Jan 01, 2020 at 12:09 PM

      Holy crap

    • Avatar
      Comments: 1785
      Joined: 1/19/2016
      je93
      Jan 01, 2020 at 12:13 PM

      But … no gap at DT ?

      • Thunder
        Comments: 3543
        Joined: 7/13/2015
        Jan 01, 2020 at 12:49 PM

        5-star Chris Hinton
        4-star Donovan Jeter
        4-star Mazi Smith

        Those are the backups, and that doesn’t include 5-star Aubrey Solomon they recruited but who transferred.

        I liked Speight as a walk-on when I expected him to play offensive line. Clemson’s safety who made the game-sealing interception was a preferred walk-on. Clemson’s not lacking for talent. Sometimes things just don’t work out in a linear fashion.

        • Avatar
          Comments: 1785
          Joined: 1/19/2016
          je93
          Jan 01, 2020 at 1:16 PM

          Thunder, that’s 4 DTs over 4 recruiting classes – in the big ten

          • Thunder
            Comments: 3543
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Jan 01, 2020 at 2:04 PM

            Maybe. But that’s only if you ignore the other guys.

            I also only have 2 tires on my car. If I’m only looking at it from the passenger side.

  3. Avatar
    Comments: 1785
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Jan 01, 2020 at 2:28 PM

    What? You usually make great points, but this isn’t one

    We’ve recruited 4 DTs in 4yrs (3, since Jeter was a DE). Two are TrFr, who shouldn’t be expected to contribute much. That’s just not enough. Wisconsin & ohio proved as much, and you prediction for Harris backs it up

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3543
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jan 01, 2020 at 3:05 PM

      Just because a recruiting site ranks a player at a certain position doesn’t mean they’ll play that spot in college. That’s where your argument diverges from reality. Looking at the 2016 class, who have had four years to find positions:

      Rashan Gary was rated as a DT. Never really played DT and is now an OLB in the NFL.
      Ben Bredeson was an OT. He plays OG.
      Carlo Kemp was an SDE. He’s playing NT.
      Josh Uche was ranked as a WDE. He’s listed as a LB.
      Kingston Davis was ranked as a FB. He played TB.
      Devin Gil was a S. Now he plays LB.
      Brad Hawkins was a WR. Now he’s a S.

      Jeter wasn’t going to be a DE, and I suggested as much in his commitment post. Hinton was ranked as a strongside end for a long time; he hasn’t played SDE at all.

      You’re too caught up in what Mike Farrell or Barton Simmons say and not what Don Brown and Jim Harbaugh think.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1785
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Jan 01, 2020 at 3:15 PM

        I don’t follow recruiting close enough for this to be true

        Three years later, and Jeter is too light in the @ss for DT in a bruising conference. 4yrs for Kemp & Dwumfor. Don’t need recruiting profiles for that simple observation

        • Thunder
          Comments: 3543
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Jan 01, 2020 at 3:36 PM

          No, recruiting profiles won’t tell you that Jeter weights 290 lbs. You need a roster for that bit of info.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 5873
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Jan 02, 2020 at 3:45 PM

        Absolutely correct. Athletes, particularly in the front 7, are going to get bigger between HS and the upperclass seasons that define careers. You have to project.

  4. Avatar
    Comments: 1785
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Jan 01, 2020 at 4:41 PM

    Come on, Thunder

    How tall was Mike McCray on MGoBlue? Jabrill? How about John Runyan? I trust the numbers on that list almost as much as the before-after photos our players post on IG

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3543
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jan 01, 2020 at 4:47 PM

      And what are you trusting? You know he’s not 290 because your eyeballs say so? How do you know that other teams’ 290 and 300 pound players are also what their rosters say? Jashon Cornell for OSU is listed at 280. Is he lighter than 280? Maybe Jeter is actually 280 and Cornell is actually 270.

  5. Avatar
    Comments: 1785
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Jan 01, 2020 at 4:56 PM

    We’ve completely changed subjects. You think there’s been no gap recruiting DTs. I think infield performance and chasing transfers says otherwise

    Agree to disagree sir

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3543
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Jan 01, 2020 at 5:57 PM

      Chasing transfers? Was there a gap in recruiting quarterbacks when Michigan landed Shea Patterson? No, Alex Malzone was taken in 2015, Brandon Peters in 2016, Dylan McCaffrey in 2017, Joe Milton in 2018, and Cade McNamara in 2019. But Malzone transferred, and Patterson was available (before Peters transferred). Michigan’s chasing transfers in large part because Aubrey Solomon transferred and James Hudson switched positions/transferred.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1785
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Jan 01, 2020 at 6:06 PM

        I raised the white flag Thunder! ?️?️?️

  6. Avatar
    Comments: 25
    Joined: 9/25/2019
    BigCatsFanLandP
    Jan 01, 2020 at 5:05 PM

    When JH first got here he made an absolute blunder in not prioritizing the OL. I’d say they’ve cleaned that up to some extent, it’s just that now that blunder has switched to size on the interior DL. However it has happened.

    I’d say that every year you need to take 2 guys that are, or project to NT. I don’t see that M has done that under H, and that’s why you can’t control the line when you absolutely need to.

    My take.

You must belogged in to post a comment.