MICHIGAN PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #47 in passing offense (252.3 yards/game), #49 in passing efficiency, and tied for #31 in yards per attempt (8.1). All those numbers sound about right. Quarterback Shea Patterson seemed to settle in during the second half of the year, and his yards per attempt were solid the final three weeks (11.6, 11.4, 7.1 against MSU, Indiana, and OSU, respectively). The numbers against Ohio State should have been better, but Michigan’s receivers – mainly Donovan Peoples-Jones – lost their focus and forgot how to catch. Speaking of former 5-star Peoples-Jones, he was somewhat pedestrian during the regular season with 33 catches for 404 yards and 6 touchdowns. Injury did play a part early in the season, but he was outplayed by slot receiver Ronnie Bell (44/705/1) and gargantuan outside guy Nico Collins (33/681/7). Tight ends Sean McKeon and Nick Eubanks are also factors with 36 catches for 464 yards and 5 scores between them. Michigan’s offensive line gives up 1.83 sacks/game, which is #53 in the country.
ALABAMA PASS DEFENSE
Alabama is #9 in pass defense (183.4 yards allowed/game) with the #7 passer efficiency rating defense and the #5 yards per attempt defense (5.9). There had been some concern about their defensive backs going into the season, but they played well overall; however, star cornerback Trevon Diggs is sitting out of the Citrus Bowl to save himself for the NFL, taking his 3 interceptions and 8 pass breakups with him. Sophomore Josh Jobe (6’1″, 189) and redshirt freshman Jalyn Amour-Davis (6’1″, 182) are the possible replacements and should be frequent targets of Michigan’s passing offense. Elsewhere, safeties Jared Mayden (6’0″, 205) and Xavier McKinney (6’1″, 200) have combined for 7 interceptions. Alabama is #52 in sacks, led by senior linebacker Anfernee Jennings (6’3″, 259) with 7.5. Second-leading sacker Terrell Lewis will be hanging out with Diggs and watching the game from their safe space.
Advantage: Alabama. I do think Michigan can get some plays in the passing game, because I don’t see them getting a ton of pressure on the Wolverines. But the defensive backs at Alabama are well coached, so unless Patterson can get some big plays against Diggs’s replacement, there won’t be a ton of separation.
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Separation isn’t easy for our guys, at least not regularly. Then there’s catching the ball
I don’t like our chances, but hope-hope-hope Bama has a let down game
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Dwumfour is out. Anyone know Kemp’s status? Alabama may not throw one time if both of these guys are out.
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Kemp’s status: It’s complicated.
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Ok. Thanks! That helped.
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I read somewhere that Jobe might be a guy Michigan can target. I remember when he was a top 50 recruit and one of Michigan’s biggest targets to flip from Miami.
I’m skeptical that’s a matchup Michigan can exploit.
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I’ve come around to the perspective that if you’re going to beat an elite team you need to be able to score again and again and again. Michigan’s pass offense is the key to the game – if they can score consistently against one of the elite defenses in the country it’ll be a great testament to Gattis and company.
If they hobble along and struggle to get into 20 point territory it’s going to be a long day for the players and short day for the fans.
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UM needs 40+ pts to stay in this game which is going to require no dropped passes in the end zone or snap fumbles on the 6yd line. It’s not impossible for UM to keep this close but they need to play their best game of the season while Alabama can basically show up and win given their talent. If UM doesn’t bring their best game and Alabama wants to make a statement this could be 56-10 final.
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The only way Michigan wins this game is if Alabama plays the way Michigan did against So Carolina cupl years back and the way ‘Bama played against Auburn by basically beating themselves throwing 2 pik 6’s……..
……….and as far as Michigan scoring 40+ points against the Tide? Only 2 teams did that against Alabama this year; LSU & Auburn. IS Michigan either of these teams? AHhhh NOPE! And one can argue easily that Bama beat themselves in both those games.
The only way Michigan will ever beat an elite team is if said elite team beats themselves. This game realy has nothing to do with Michigan; its frankly all about Alabama – The Tide’s game to win; The Tide’s game to lose – Michigan just happens to be ‘the other team’ in the game so , yeah, there’s a chance they could win the thing .
As I See It………..INTJohn
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