Daxton Hill, Ex-Wolverine

Daxton Hill, Ex-Wolverine


December 9, 2018

Tulsa (OK) Booker T. Washington safety Daxton Hill

Tulsa (OK) Booker T. Washington safety Daxton Hill ripped Michigan fans’ hearts out on Saturday when he tweeted out that he was flipping to Alabama. Hill is the #1 safety in the country, according to the 247 Composite rankings, and is the #8 player in the country.

I gave Hill a TTB Rating of 100 (LINK), which means I think he’s the best safety in the country, too. This continues the trend of Alabama treating Michigan like Michigan used to treat Purdue, as the Crimson Tide have stolen Michigan’s top recruit – or close to it – in three of the last five years. In the 2018 class, offensive guard Emil Ekiyor (#113 overall, one spot behind Aidan Hutchinson) flipped to ‘Bama, and in 2015, it was running back Damien Harris (#31).

The Wolverines currently have zero safeties committed in the 2019 class. With 23 commits, this drops their overall 247 Composite ranking to #11 in the nation. Hill joins running back Eric Gray (uncommitted), defensive end Stephen Herron (Stanford), and defensive lineman Tyrece Woods (uncommitted) as decommitments from Michigan in 2019.

28 comments

  1. Avatar
    Comments: 12
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Ramrod
    Dec 09, 2018 at 8:05 AM

    This sucks. Didn’t the coaches just visit him in house last week. Great job they did. We stopped recruiting that Cine kid after he committed and now we will have to get another 3* safety.

  2. Avatar
    Comments: 1863
    Joined: 1/19/2016
    je93
    Dec 09, 2018 at 10:55 AM

    It does suck, but how can you blame him?

    In three years, would you rather win 2-3 NC and get into the League? Or win about 28 games, lose & cry about rivalries, and only MAYBE make it to a playoff?
    The humiliation in CBus just keeps on giving

  3. Avatar
    Comments: 6
    Joined: 11/22/2016
    UMinDC
    Dec 09, 2018 at 11:03 AM

    Thunder,

    Were there any indications of the flip? Prior to this, everything I had read seemed to suggest everyone who was committed was supposedly solid.

    Without dropping names, are any other current commits looking around?

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3787
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Dec 09, 2018 at 11:43 AM

      Well, I heard some things a couple days ago that gave me pause about Hill’s commitment, but I didn’t spend too much time thinking about it. I guess I should have thought about it more in retrospect, but yeah, I thought he was pretty solid.

      There is one current commit that I do not believe will sign with Michigan, but it’s not definitive. On the plus side, I don’t see it being a big loss.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 6
        Joined: 11/22/2016
        UMinDC
        Dec 09, 2018 at 2:05 PM

        Not that it matters since he is gone…but can you expand on the reasons that gave you pause? Thanks!

        • Thunder
          Comments: 3787
          Joined: 7/13/2015
          Dec 09, 2018 at 3:10 PM

          There were two items: a) whom he was befriending and b) planning to sign in February instead of December.

  4. Lanknows
    Comments: 6185
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Dec 09, 2018 at 11:05 AM

    “Alabama treating Michigan like Michigan used to treat Purdue”

    Unfortunate truth. Interesting to me that some prominent M fans are willing to cap the bball team’s ceiling by asserting that they can’t compete with the “blue bloods”. Even though fball is less successful, you don’t see the logic much.

    Talent, some will argue. M football tends to ranks higher in the recruiting rankings. But in pro production M is #8 in NBA production and #14 in NFL.

    https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2018-09-11/colleges-most-represented-2018-nfl-rosters

    https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-16/colleges-most-players-nba-opening-day-rosters

    • UM_1973
      Comments: 107
      Joined: 10/14/2015
      UM_1973
      Dec 09, 2018 at 12:54 PM

      I think the biggest difference between football and basketball is expectations. In basketball, we praise John Beilein for making the NCAA tournament despite never having a winning record in the Big Ten for the four season. His real success came in the 6th season and it took a lucky shot by Burke to beat Kansas.

      In football, we are down Jim Harbaugh despite him having ten wins in 3 out of his first 4 seasons. If the spot went Michigan’s way 2 years ago, our view of Jim Harbaugh might be way different.

      It could be skill. But I think it could very much be luck.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 6185
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Dec 09, 2018 at 5:39 PM

        Beilein won the Big 10 in his 5th year and he’s made the national title game twice. Can’t dismiss what he’s done as luck when he’s 12 years in.

        I think both Harbaugh and Beilein are elite coaches coaching elite programs. But basketball right now is closer to being in the very top of the elite tier of conference favorites and perennial national title contention.

        Bad luck has knocked them both down a peg (Harbaugh in ’17 with QB injuries and Beilein losing his 2 best players in ’15) but Beilein’s doing better overall. He’s hanging banners. Harbaugh isn’t. Blowing the FSU game kind of deflates the “just missed in ’16” argument. Still, you make a good point regarding patience. Harbaugh’s arrow is pointing up (like Beilein’s was and still is). Year 5 vs Year 12 is apples and oranges.

        Beilein vs Bo is the argument we should be having. Harbaugh’s accomplishment (1 big ten east division championship) at Michigan doesn’t compare yet. Beilein vs Bo comes down to how much you value post-season success. Regional dominance or national success?

        My overarching point is that perceptions of the programs are skewed and, interestingly, it’s skewed more WITHIN the fanbase than outside of it. Basketball really isn’t significantly different in terms of advantages and disadvantages when you boil it down. The prestige of the bball program is, in my view, somewhat held down by the PERCEIVED (and given results, IMAGINED) superiority of football. But you can’t change a culture overnight.

        • UM_1973
          Comments: 107
          Joined: 10/14/2015
          UM_1973
          Dec 10, 2018 at 4:11 AM

          I don’t think what Beilein has achieved is due to luck. I think he is an elite coach whose X’s and O’s are one of the best in the game (even better than some of the perceived top coaches like Izzo and Calipari). His main weakness in the past has been defense but he has corrected that with the hire of Donlon/Yaklich. Having said that, Beilein has been lucky in the two national championship appearance. In the first one, the field was relatively weak (no outstanding one-and-done; just look at the NBA draft that year). The 2013 team finished 4th in the Big Ten. Last year, Michigan essentially required a miraculous shot from Jordan Poole to make it past the first weekend and had a relatively easy passage to the final. With luck, Beilein is seen as a genius who is able to do more with less talent and this helped in recruiting.

          On the other hand, Harbaugh who were seen as a “QB whisperer” prior to Michigan and an elite coach (for doing well wherever he went) have not had much luck at Michigan. This in turn hurt recruiting. I am pretty sure other coaches are saying that Harbaugh can’t win the big games and this has hurt our recruiting. I believe this is why we have lost out to State on the top Michigan recruits the past two cycles. If we have won the “Punt” game and the “Spot” game, I think our (and the media) perception of Harbaugh would have been very different.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 6185
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Dec 10, 2018 at 12:23 PM

            The ’13 team had 6 NBA players so I don’t agree they got lucky. 4 freshman, so they peaked later.

            While I agree that Harbaugh has had some perception-altering bad luck it pales in comparison to losing Caris Levert for 2 years. If healthy, Beilein’s 2 down years in ’15 and ’16 look a lot different in between the 3 trips to the sweet 16.

            Beilein is universally respected but he should be at the Knight-Krzyszewski-Izzo level of respect. Especially since he’s been outcoaching Izzo for years.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 6185
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Dec 10, 2018 at 12:33 PM

              I do agree the team got a very lucky draw in last year’s tournament.

            • UM_1973
              Comments: 107
              Joined: 10/14/2015
              UM_1973
              Dec 11, 2018 at 10:58 AM

              Yes. I agree that the 2013 team is very good.

              Yes I agree that Beilein is elite. I still put him behind Coach K, Jay Wright and Roy Williams but definitely on par (if not higher) than Izzo/Calipari/Bill Self. The only knock against Beilein? Recruiting. Elite one and dones do not want to play for Beilein. I don’t know if it is the lack of bagman or elite recruits do not want to be taking the time to learn Beilein’s intricate offense.

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 6185
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Dec 11, 2018 at 12:01 PM

                Can’t that same knock be applied to Harbaugh? He got Gary and finished 2nd a bunch of times but missed on all the top tier QBs and is clearly a notch below the elites (southern powers and OSU).

                Beilein landed McGary and Robinson (both of whom would have been better served being 1 and done but came back, presumably because of Beilein making a case). Brazdeikis looks one and done too. Then there’s all those second place finishes with Jaylen Brown, Luke Kennard, Devin Booker, etc.

                Again – I’m not seeing much difference in the programs. Both are in the 2nd tier of elite programs.

                • Lanknows
                  Comments: 6185
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  Lanknows
                  Dec 11, 2018 at 12:03 PM

                  Losing the bulk of recruiting battles vs Duke & Kansas is no different than losing vs Alabama & OSU.

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 6185
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Dec 11, 2018 at 1:03 PM

                Producing the talent, regardless of stars, is what matters. Beilein’s done that better than Michigan football has done it.

  5. UM_1973
    Comments: 107
    Joined: 10/14/2015
    UM_1973
    Dec 09, 2018 at 11:10 AM

    I think if we had lost to Ohio 3-0, this kid would have still been a Wolverine. Watching our defense crushed by Ohio couldn’t have helped. In addition, perhaps the Alabama bagman came running.

    Thunder, by the way, Michigan can no longer steal Purdue recruits. George Karlaftis is still a Boilermaker last I checked…

    • Thunder
      Comments: 3787
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Dec 09, 2018 at 11:40 AM

      I’m not sure about that. I think that game could have been used as an example of, “If we had you, we could have held down OSU more and won the game.”

      • Avatar
        Comments: 183
        Joined: 9/3/2015
        suduri xusai
        Dec 09, 2018 at 12:01 PM

        I disagree. One person can only do so much. You think we would’ve won the OSU game if he was there? I doubt it.

        This is totally on Harbaugh. He doesn’t have a lot of time now. If he keeps on losing big games, he won’t be able to secure the Rashan Garys and Daxton Hills of the world.

        • DonAZ
          Comments: 511
          Joined: 8/12/2015
          DonAZ
          Dec 09, 2018 at 1:45 PM

          Time is running out on everybody not named Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State. The playoff system is encouraging a coalescence of talent around a small handful of teams. Those not on the list are shut out of the best talent, and won’t be able to compete at the elite level.

          • DonAZ
            Comments: 511
            Joined: 8/12/2015
            DonAZ
            Dec 09, 2018 at 2:10 PM

            Even though Oklahoma and Notre Dame are in the playoff this year, I don’t believe either has the long-term sustainability in today’s college football age. To be honest, I’m not convinced Ohio State does either. I do believe Georgia is ascending, and I’m convinced the committee would have liked to put Georgia into the playoff, but felt it couldn’t quite justify it.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 6185
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Dec 09, 2018 at 5:44 PM

            Is this any different than how it used to be? The game was more regional in past decades but talent still clumped (e.g., big 2 little 8).

            Michigan football’s about as strong as it ever was – the difference is that OSU raised the bar under Meyer.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 6185
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Dec 09, 2018 at 6:13 PM

              (post-WW2). In the time of the dinosaurs UM was a powerhouse. But even under Bo this was generally a top 5-10 team. Bo’s consistency and longevity is what was most impressive and Harbaugh has the program back on that level. Tending to fall flat in late season contests among peers is hopefully where Harbaugh can top Bo. So far though…

        • GKblue
          Comments: 357
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          GKblue
          Dec 09, 2018 at 2:15 PM

          “If we had you, we could have held down OSU more and won the game.” I think Thunder is referring to a sale pitch that may have appealed to Hill and his family, not that it was literally accurate.

          • GKblue
            Comments: 357
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            GKblue
            Dec 09, 2018 at 2:22 PM

            Which is not to say we couldn’t have used him, let’s make that clear.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 183
            Joined: 9/3/2015
            suduri xusai
            Dec 09, 2018 at 2:52 PM

            yes that sales pitch doesn’t work when you lose to OSU every year. That sales pitch only works if you pull off a big win every now and then i the past 4 years.

            Harbaugh better be thinking about beating OSU every single day from now on.

          • Thunder
            Comments: 3787
            Joined: 7/13/2015
            Dec 09, 2018 at 2:58 PM

            Correct.

  6. Avatar
    Comments: 63
    Joined: 9/18/2016
    Chowman
    Dec 09, 2018 at 7:29 PM

    Head to head vs Bama in recruiting we’ll come out on the short end more times than not. Just can’t argue with their success. Bama’s on the way to another Natty and we’re licking our wounds from getting stomped by our rival.

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