The following was posted by Lanknows, but the site changeover caused it to be deleted temporarily:
My way-too-early first-cut look at needs for the 2018 roster by position. The “2018 projection” figure includes all eligible players listed on the current roster unless noted otherwise, as informed by the highly useful Mgoblog Depth Chart by Class
QB
Target Scholarships: 5
2018 Projection: 4 (Speight, Malzone, Peters, McCaffrey)
Attrition Probability: Low (nothing obvious but Speight could go pro)
Class Need: 1
A pretty ideal situation lined up for M. If Malzone doesn’t transfer this year he might as well stick through his grad transfer. If Peters & McCaffrey stay on schedule they can afford to gamble with an ATH-type.
RB/FB
Target Scholarships: 6-9
2018 Projection: 7 (6 RBs plus Mason)
Attrition Probability: Certain (expect 1-3 departures but also an arrival at FB)
Class Need: 1-2
There is always RB turnover. Already have some rumblings before the ’17 recruits have even arrived. The big variable here is FB. Michigan needs options to replace Hill and Poggi and will look for position switches or walk-ons beyond the assumed switch from Mason.
TE
Target Scholarships: 6
2018 Projection: 6
Attrition Probability: Dammit! (1 probably for sure + maybe a position switch)
Class Need: 1
The need here continues to be overstated, mostly because Michigan skipped 2016. Redshirts from McKeon and Eubanks negate that though. The seemingly imminent departure of Asiasi does put numbers down. If Gentry or Eubanks bump to WR or transfer this could go to 2.
WR
Target Scholarships: 8-9
2018 Projection: 11
Attrition Probability: Certain (Expect 3)
Class Need: 1-2
Michigan has 8 guys left from the last 2 classes. Some of them will end up elsewhere (transfer or position switch). All 3 projected seniors (including 2 5th years in Harris and Ways) will not all last to 2018. Hard to imagine skipping the position entirely, especially with ATH-type options, but there is no need for any pure WR.
OL
Target Scholarships: 15-20
2018 Projection: 12
Attrition Probability: High (Expect 1-2 because of Newsome health + sheer odds of 12 guys surviving the next 20 months intact)
Class Need: 4-5
The target number is up for some debate but the lack of proven players is not. Michigan needs guys here, especially on the inside. Could drop to 4 if you count Paea, things go very well with attrition, or a transfer signs on like the kid from Clemson.
DL
Target Scholarships: 15-20
2018 Projection: 17
Attrition Probability: High (expect 2-3)
Class Need: 3-4
This really just depends on how the 11! freshman look in 2017. 2018 projects to have 4 guys in their last years (Gary, Mone, Winovich, Marshall) plus 3 other current non freshman (S.Johnson, R.Jones, Marshall) so a bit of replenishing will still be needed.
LB
Target Scholarships: 7-8 (not counting VIPERS, this is really 2.5 positions)
2018 Projection: 10 (including J.Glasgow but not Mason)
Attrition Probability: High (expect 2)
Class Need: 1-2
You probably want at least one every year but Michigan has loaded up here even if you remove a 5th year senior and assume a transfer or two. Might be good with just one OLB (Reese)
DB
Target Scholarships: 12-16
2018 Projection: 11
Attrition Probability: Very Low!
Class Need: 4
Numbers are still low overall even with no expected departures between 2017 and 2018. Michigan’s probably going to play all their freshman in 2017, which tends to help keep attrition down. Expect at least 1 WR to shore-up depth.
P/K
Target Scholarships: 2
2018 Projection: 2
Attrition Probability: Low for specialists
Class Need: 0
Nordin and Robbins project to return as sophomores. Only available schollie would come through attrition.
Total Class Size: 16-21
QB: 1
RB/FB: 1-2
TE: 1
WR: 1-2
OL: 4-5
DL: 3-4
LB: 1-2
DB: 4
P/K: 0
How do we get to near 20 with only 9 or so spots open? Attrition. My estimate above says we’ll lose 10-15 guys (though that includes some assumed position switches) so let’s say more like 8-10 actual roster losses.
Of course this is all subject to change with any unusual attrition or position changes. For example a guy like Paea moving from DL to OL could shift the DL and OL number to 4 instead of 3 and 5 respectively.
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