The elephant in the room. Joe Milton looked good. He completed 15/22 passes for 225 yards and 1 touchdown, while running 8 times for 52 yards and 1 touchdown. I thought he would look shaky, and he didn’t. Yes, there were some mistakes, but he also made some very nice plays. Obviously, the arm strength is impressive, but he didn’t really complete any deep shots. The throws he hit were in the short and intermediate areas. It was a good debut for a starting QB.
Hit the jump for more.
What were the mistakes? There weren’t many, but I thought the sack Milton took from Minnesota defensive end Boye Mafe was unnecessary. Mafe bull rushed Ryan Hayes backward, but Milton tried to reverse escape too soon and kind of ran himself into a sack. He also tried to throw over defenders a couple times, which I’m generally not a fan of doing. He needs to do a better job of finding throwing windows, or those throws start turning into batted balls and interceptions. Milton also wasn’t complete in sync with his receivers. A lot of the intermediate throws were behind the receivers, and the one true deep shot he threw was significantly overthrown (which was probably a good thing considering the receiver was covered).
How did it compare to other first-time starters in the Jim Harbaugh era?
- Jake Rudock vs. Utah in 2015: 27/43 (62.8%) for 279 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Wilton Speight vs. Hawaii in 2016: 10/13 (76.9%) for 145 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
- John O’Korn vs. Indiana in 2016: 7/16 (43.8%) for 59 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
- Brandon Peters vs. Minnesota in 2017: 8/13 (61.5%) for 56 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
- Shea Patterson vs. Notre Dame in 2018: 20/30 (66.7%) for 227 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
- Joe Milton vs. Minnesota in 2020: 15/22 (68.1%) for 225 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
Out of those six debuts, Milton is #2 in completions, #3 in attempts, #3 in completion percentage, #3 in yards, #2 (tie) in touchdowns, and #1 (tie) in interceptions. He was also #2 in passer efficiency rating, behind Speight’s game against Hawaii.
What’s the pecking order at receiver? I felt like the play calling and/or Joe Milton’s tendency was to get the ball to Giles Jackson, but they couldn’t quite connect. Jackson caught just 2 passes for 17 yards, but Milton missed him a couple other times. The leading receiver ended up being Ronnie Bell (4 catches for 74 yards), who made hay on bubble routes and an RPO catch-and-run on which he broke free . . . before he pulled a Daniel Jones and fell flat on his face. Speaking of embarrassing plays, Erick All had an easy touchdown on a beautifully designed play by Josh Gattis . . . and let it slip through his fingers.
Michigan’s pass rush is back. I know it was Minnesota. And Minnesota was playing from behind for most of the game. And Minnesota had to reshuffle its offensive line due to injuries. But the quickness and speed and variety of Michigan’s pass rush is back to when Chase Winovich was in Ann Arbor back in 2018. Kwity Paye had 2 sacks, Aidan Hutchinson was getting pressure almost every time, Michael Barrett’s early sack and forced fumble messed with Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan’s head, and even nose tackle Julius Welschof was quick enough to be used on a stunt, putting him in the C-gap and landing him a sack. Overall, the Wolverines had 5 sacks – according to ESPN – and I think they actually had 6, because I could have sworn Paye made sacks on 3 consecutive plays but was only credited with 2.
These freshmen “burned their redshirt.” The NCAA says it doesn’t count, anyway, but just to give you an idea of which true freshmen are in the mix for playing time:
- RB Blake Corum
- WR A.J. Henning
- LB William Mohan
- LB Kalel Mullings
- S Makari Paige
- WR Roman Wilson
- OG Zak Zinter
What about the run defense? I’m not too worried about the run defense, and here’s why. Michigan was very afraid of Rashod Bateman taking over the game and he didn’t (more on that later). With the Wolverines paying extra attention to Bateman, there were some structural things the defense was doing that kept some guys from being in position to make plays. Now they also took some bad angles and did not wrap up. Minnesota running back Mohamed Ibrahim ran 26 times for 140 yards (5.4 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns, and most of those yards came from bending it back outside on inside zone runs. Safeties and outside linebackers were flying in to cut him off rather than working from outside-in to keep contain.
Michael Barrett is another jack-of-all-trades. I love former quarterbacks, and Barrett is another one. There aren’t many guys who are more well-rounded than him. He completed a 25-yard pass to Daxton Hill last year. He returned a kickoff 66 yards against the Gophers on Saturday night. He also made 7 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble, which was returned by Donovan Jeter for a touchdown. Oh, and he was Johnny On the Spot when Blake Corum fumbled a short kickoff, recovering the ball when that could have been a big momentum swing in favor of the bad guys.
So what did they do to Bateman? Bateman is Minnesota’s best player, and they bottled him up pretty well. If you tell me that the Big Ten’s best receiver is going to make 9 catches for 101 yards (11.2 yards/catch) and 0 touchdowns against Michigan, I’ll take that every time. He had 6 catches for 26 yards in the first half. Of course, that means he had 3 catches for 75 yards in the second half, but most of that came on one big play, a 38-yard catch-and-run against true freshman Makari Paige. Michigan showed a bunch of different looks, including bracket coverage, single coverage, and walking out an extra linebacker or safety to shade him, discouraging a throw. Minnesota is smart to play him in the slot, because it’s tougher to double a guy in the slot if you want to stop the run. I would rather have a running back average 5.4 yards per carry than have Bateman averaging 20 yards/catch, which he did last year for the whole season.
A few random notes:
- Michigan threw the #85 jersey on offensive tackle Joel Honigford and played him at tight end. Whether this is a short-term thing because of Nick Eubanks’s absence or a long-term thing because Honigford is just that valuable of a blocker, I don’t know.
- Michigan’s offensive line looked pretty dang good for it being game #1 with four new starters. Andrew Stueber and Chuck Filiaga are two giant human beings at offensive guard, and good luck trying to defeat a double team when Stueber and Jalen Mayfield combo. Yikes.
- Daxton Hill left the game due to injury, and things got really iffy after that. Makari Paige is the third safety, and Paige shouldn’t be playing in game one of his true freshman year. This is no offense to Paige. True freshman safeties are just not good. Let’s hope Hill’s injury is not a long-term one.
- Zach Charbonnet broke off a 70-yard touchdown run and only touched the ball four times. Maybe the coaches are trying to keep guys fresh by rotating backs.?
What does this game mean? I don’t know. I said before the game that I could see this game swing wildly, from a three-touchdown win for Michigan to a close game to a three-touchdown loss. It ended up being a 25-point victory, a little more than three touchdowns. It’s probably a little different game if right guard Curtis Dunlap and right tackle Daniel Fa’alele played for the Gophers, but Michigan was missing starting tight end Nick Eubanks, too, on a night when tight ends Erick All and Ben Mason factored in heavily.
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I’m delighted to be wrong on this game.
I’m guessing Makari Paige will be the guy Thunder wants to see less of on defense. He was game, but nowhere near ready. The first time I noticed him, I thought, “Who is the pencil running around lost wearing 7?”
I’m guessing that the play of the game will likely be Charbonnet’s TD run. My play of the game is Roman Wilson’s block on Charbonnet’s TD run. Harbaugh was praising Filiaga on that run in the presser, but he just waltzed with a safety that picked the wrong side of the mountain,
But Ohhhhh Myyyyy … a true freshman, and a really skinny one at that, just went out and ripped inside position away from a guy with at least a one yard advantage and maybe more and then just manhandled him out of the play. It was as good a line of scrimmage block as any wide receiver block I have ever seen. At first I was really confused and was wondering when Tru Wilson got moved to receiver. When I figured it out this morning, my jaw dropped.
My second play of the game is on the same play. at the top of your screen Giles Jackson just exploded into their Sam’s … I think … chest and rocked his ass but good. Looks like a 50 pound difference, maybe more. Whoa Baby!!! That was some really good football from the wide receiver position on that play.
Then Mike Sainristil really closed ground fast and got into a guy for a very nice block on Barrett’s kick return.
Evidently we are back to coaching receivers up to block.
I thought Jeter and Kemp both were really solid. If you want to see evidence regarding the low man wins thing. Watch Jeter just take complete control of their center on his pick play. When the ball showed up, he had to let go of the guys throat … basically … to catch it.
Good football everywhere … mostly. Might have been a little different if they are not down 5 starters and have a fired up crowd, but I’m taking it.
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With you on Wilson. For a skinny track star playing in his first game, that’s the kind of thing you want to see. He looks ready. People talked about All last year too. Look at that skinny kid pushing people around with enthusiasm.
Dangerous to read too much into this stuff but I’m encouraged by the signs of character of the team. The collective effort from the skill position guys without the ball. The different kinds of leadership you see from Mason, Milton, Paye, McGrone. Felt like a team with something to prove.
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Very interesting perspective on the run D and Batemon. This made me feel a little better but still can’t shake the feeling we’ll get worked by OSU and Wisc.
I came away from the game not being impressed with Hinton and Jeter and concerned at how many snaps we were getting from BVS. Paye, Hutchinson, and Kemp were all good, not surprisingly, but they’re still hunting for another guy it seems to me. Hopefully the tape reviewers will see better.
Hutchinson looks skinnier. Our DL can look very small sometimes.
Play of the game to me was Upshaw’s hustle to track down the RB. Saved us 4 points and he chased all the way around the other side of the play to make it happen. That’s how you earn more playing time.
The contrast between Hawkins and Paige is why boring is a complement. Get well Dax.
Milton was solid. They put more on him than I expected. The big thing I noticed was the poise and composure. Patient in finding his holes. Mostly hung in the pocket though it was rarely hard to do so. Didn’t rush throws.
Elephant in the room is a strange phrase to me it means something people dont want to talk about, but I think we all want to talk about Milton’s excellent debut. That wasn’t Ohio State but it also wasn’t Hawaii. The context is most like Utah in 15.
MY elephant in the room is that Minnesota isnt all that good when they are missing as many guys as they were. We may look back on this as the easiest night Milton had all year (save for cupcakes like Rutgers and MSU).
Now I have to admit to being wrong. I thought Michigan would rush for 300 yards and they failed to do that. I blame Joe Milton’s better than expected competence. Can we count some screens as run plays?
The OL collectively was the MVP of the game. These guys are vets and it showed. They made Miltons life easy and every RB look good.
It was a fun game. A few individual standouts to me:
Michael Barrett – loved watching this kid play. Our Viper actually looks and plays like linebacker. May be relevant against Wisconsin.
Gemon Green – looked like an answer. With him in there Dax Hill was the shortest guy in the secondary.
Ben Mason – welcome back FB. He was a big factor in most (all?) the long runs. Mason at RB should be the goalline default regardless of who is getting the snap. Thats a helluva “extra” blocker.
AJ Henning but especially Roman Wilson – look like they belong already
Hassan Haskins is a football player. People are ready to forget about him but he had a couple TDs. Best YAC guy in the backfield and that special teams tackle got me going.
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Yeah, we’re pretty much in the same situation on the Dline as we were last year..not really any big, strong run-stuffers who are hard to move and can clog up the middle. Brown will compensate as best he can, but we’re still likely to get gashed by teams with power running games. The defensive backfield has some talent, but not enough experience, and they look vulnerable.
Milton looked fine. He made some good short to medium throws, didn’t force things, and made good decisions, but his lack of accuracy on deep balls may limit how much of a difference maker he can be. I wouldn’t quite call him a dangerous runner, but he looks like an effective enough one that defenses will have to account for him, especially on third and short.
We seem to have good depth and versatility at the skill positions, but this still doesn’t look like a “speed in space” offense, not with the number of snaps they used Mason on. I was disappointed that they never even tried to use an up tempo to give the defense problems. Was also not as impressed with the Online as a lot of other people seemed to be. More than half of our rushing yards came on two plays. The rest of the time, our RBs had 18 carries for 56 yards.
If this were a full, normal season, I’d peg this as yet another 9-3ish team, talent wise.
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You say that like it’s a bad thing.
Two runs over 60 yards is good. 5 TDs is good. There might have been 2 or 3 run plays that didn’t work on the day against a purported top 25 team. It was a very good day on the ground and Michigan did it using a lot of different guys and different looks.
In the air, it’s evident that Michigan isn’t going to be on Alabama, Clemson, or OSU’s level this year even with Milton having a good debut. Fields almost completed every pass. Lawrence is Lawrence. Alabama is Alabama. 5 stars everywhere. Everyone 4 to 100 is chasing from behind.
I see Mason in the game as an opportunity more than a detriment. We’re not going to catch up to the elite by doing the exact same things they do. Need to find some ways to have identify and be different. Tempo certainly isn’t going to surprise anyone in 2020. Yesterday Mason was a big reason why our speed got into space. Keep it going.
The offense looked to look like it was headed in the right direction, continuing the positive trend in the second half of 2019. Everything was well run and organized. They even executed a quick little drive at the end of the 1st half with not much time left, a rarity in the Harbaugh era.
I think the DT should be a bit better than last year given a year of development, though Hutchinson filled in a lot inside and doesn’t seem like that’s the plan this year (no Danna available at DE). I’d guess it’s still going to be a liability but we’ve seen the light go on midseason before. There’s still some vague hope for Hilton to ascend in the next few weeks but it doesn’t look likely. If you believe you have to just outscore people then it’s a moot point anyway.
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The problem isn’t that big plays are a bad thing. Of course they aren’t. The problem is what we’re doing when we’re NOT getting big plays. The problem is whether we’re getting consistency in the run game. If you get a 40 yard run followed by 2 yards, 1 yard and 1 yard, you’ve averaged 11 yards a carry, but your drive is dead. I won’t be surprised if our run game gets better, but this time out, our RBs were not consistently getting 4, 5, 6 yards a pop.
As far as Mason, he did a good job at what they asked him to do, and that’s all well and good, but when you put a slow, chunky extra blocker like him or a second tight end out there as often as we did, that’s not a “speed in space” offense. It just isn’t. Doesn’t mean it can’t work well against decent teams, and in this case it did, and they managed to be less predictable, but “speed in space” is still a myth.
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Drive #1: Runs of 24, 3
Drive #2: Run of 70
Drive #3: Runs of 0, 8, 0, -6
Drive #4: Runs of 8, 9, 4, 8, 6, 23, 4
Drive #5: Runs of 1, 8, 4
Drive #6: All passes
Drive #7: Runs of 4, 9, 1, 7, 2
Drive #8: Runs of 66, 7, 2, 5
Drive #9: Runs of 6, 3, -2
Drive #10: Run of 9
Drive #11: Kneel down
There were two negative rushing attempts the whole game. Only you would come out of this game complaining about the rushing performance.
You don’t understand the speed in space concept. What you want is an Air Raid offense. I’ve explained this before. If you pull an extra guy into the box with a tight end or fullback and then get the ball on the edge to a speedy guy where there’s a lot of green grass, that’s by definition “speed in space.”
The first play of the game is a perfect example. There were 8 defenders in the box, and Milton threw it out on the edge to Blake Corum, getting speed . . . in space. Voila! It gained 24 yards.
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It’s not just about negative rushing attempts. What idiotic cherry picking. It’s about low yardage gains too, 3 yards or less. The first drive, there was no 24 yard rush. Prove me wrong. You’re a liar there too. You’re just making shit up to prove something that isn’t true, which tells me all I need to know right there. 2nd drive, one big play from a guy who had zero yards on the rest of his carries for the night. Third drive, crap. Fourth drive, all Milton, and I was talking about the RBs, if you’d bothered to read what I wrote.
And no, taking speed guys out of the lineup in favor of slow blockers is not “speed in space”. You’re talking about nothing more than getting receivers open, which is nothing new. And even then, you can only come up with one play in the whole game that qualifies as “speed in space”. That’s one good play, not a new offensive scheme.
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Who told you speed in space was anything new? It’s a catch phrase for Michigan running a modern offense that many other teams run. They haven’t had that in a decade.
Hamilton nudged it that way and Gattis is advancing it more rapidly.
Mason doesn’t undermine it he enhances it.
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Yikes. You’ve got some issues.
I thought that 24-yard play to Corum was a lateral. It looks like it went in as a pass, but if you watch the play, Milton throws it at the 24 and Corum catches it on about the 23.5-yard line. Regardless, it’s an extension of the run game (the line is run blocking) and basically like a triple option pitch. Technically, I think that play should have gone in as a run.
It’s still putting speedy guys in space. That’s not the only example, either. It’s just the most obvious one because it was the FIRST PLAY of the season and you immediately started griping as if it didn’t take place.
And still, your worry about the inconsistent run game isn’t supported by the evidence. The only consecutive runs of 3 yards or fewer came on drive #3 (yes, it killed a drive and was the frustrating drive I mentioned in the post-game piece) and on drive #9. There wasn’t anything to support the idea of going for 40 yards and then three consecutive short runs.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Joe Milton throwing three straight pick-sixes would be bad. What does that have to do with the game that took place on Saturday night? Nothing! But if it happened, it would be bad.
UPDATE: Reading “Michigan Monday” on Buckeye Scoop, Tony Gerdeman said the same thing about the Corum play: “True freshman Blake Corum ran the ball five times for 24 yards, though he also caught a swing pass for 24 yards that should have been considered a lateral and a rush instead.” https://buckeyescoop.com/page/blog/articles/michigan-monday-greasy-grimy-gopher-guts/#
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For a convo like this it would be really nice to have access to the rushing success rate stat that sometimes get published by people like Bill Connelly.
Something like that would tell us better if a 3 yard run was bad or good. On 3rd and goal from the 3 it’s excellent. On 1st and 10 it speaks to what WCB is raising concern about.
It would be a good way to tell us if our ground game was consistent or boom/bust.
The advanced stats stuff is so far ahead in MLB and NBA compared to NFL let alone college football.
Just eye-balling it based on the stats Thunder posted it seems like Michigan was generally successful given the number of carries that came in the red zone. But they didn’t blow Minn up every play the way they would a non-conference cupcake either – which seems like WCBs point. Last time we played Minnesota in 2017 felt like more comprehensive domination on the ground.
Whether there is any reason to nitpick the successful day on the ground probably hinges on your perception of Minn. More like a top 25 team with a solid D or overrated nobodies. We’ll see.
Numbers aside the real point is you have to ask yourself what you are doing as a fan if you come out of big win like that looking for any and every reason to complain.
Michigan can’t beat Ohio State Clemson and Alabama in a game against Minnesota.
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I appreciate pulling out the long run outliers and agree with the sentiment but you’re rarely going to see impressive ypc numbers when you do that. You have to put the bar in the right spot accordingly. Especially when you have a bunch of red zone carries leading to 4 TDs. Those are outliers too, since you can’t get 10 or 20 yards in those situations.
The run game moved the ball consistently. The success rate (contextual or objective) was very high. I believe they punted once all day? Unless Minn stinks it was impressive work on the ground for any top 25 team.
I agree with Thunder here that your definition of speed in space seems very specific and off. This is Gattis’ catch phrase so he gets to define it. I don’t hear much (any?) talk of tempo but you keep bringing it up. You insist it exist with a FB. These are the only myths I’m seeing.
Charbonnet running untouched is speed in space too. Mason helped make that happen because he blocked like a damn OLmen. His force created that space and fast guy ran through it.
Milton running to the edge with an option to run or pass to Mason or All is speed in space too. Milton isn’t all that fast but he’s fast enough and more importantly smart enough to execute the play that creates space.
Speed in space isn’t just outrunning people to get open. It’s creating space by threatening all over the field and fooling defenders into going to the wrong spot. Or shoving them the hell out of the way to create space too. THEN you get the ball to fast guys. You don’t need 4 or 5 WRs on the field every play to do it.
The offense is faster now at the skill positions than it’s ever been since I can remember. Even with Mason, even with 2 RBs on the field on a bunch of plays. Speed.
They are spreading the ball around and using all of the field. They are running the QB, throwing to backs, and putting defenders in conflict. Space.
Mason can help with that. Mason DID help with that. Michigan did that in Game 1 Year 2020.
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Thunder appreciate this so much. It is so nice to be talking M football. Life is still screwy but this feels almost normal. Thanks for all you have done. I just hit the donate button for a little something for the effort (you still will receive total consciousness)
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Thank you! Glad I can help readers feel like things are a little bit normal. And thanks for the donation!
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“and even nose tackle Julius Welschof was quick enough to be used on a stunt”
According to the box score, Welschof was in on two tackles and had half a sack. Did he play much this game, or did he appear later, after they’d wrapped things up? (I’ve been wanting to see how he turned out ever since they brought him in from Germany as a pure project.)
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Welschof played early and often. It looks like he’s solidly in the rotation at nose tackle.
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Wolverine Devotee has his more complete hi-lite reel up.
This Julius Welschof was on the field for the last two snaps on the back to back to back, sack series. He was right there despite being doubled. Actually the only guy who had a zero impact snap on that series was Hutchinson. He looked tired and ended up sort of playing safety on the first snap.
I thought Kemp was good from start to finish. They slant him about every down, and he was beating them by being quick and was getting penetration the entire game.
I miss whoever it was that used to do the every play offense/defense thing.
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Enjoyed this write-up, Thunder! Agree with Roanman and Lanknows about the all of their previous points. I did think Hawkins looked a little shaky, but he was the guy probably most responsible ensuring bracket coverage on Bateman.
I rewatched the highlights, and on those three consecutive 4th quarter sacks they went like this:
1) Paye gets to Morgan first after spinning through the C, and gives Morgan a half spin but falls off of him, then Kemp finishes him off. Paye should get a probably get a half-sack credit there.
2. Solo sack as Paye easily sheds the back who was supposed to pick him up.
3. Solo sack as Paye beats the LT clean.
He also had a TFL earlier in the 4th quarter. He’s excellent. Hutchinson too.
Also, very minor correction: in your QB debut comparisons, Milton should be #2 in completion percentage and #3 in completions. Your overall point still stands, of course.
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Edit: Paye beats the RT clean, not the LT.
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Great game. Talent everywhere! Only negative and it may not be, but did we ever throw the ball when 43 was in the game? Dead give away ….run?
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More impressive about Milton’s stats vs the other players in their Michigan debuts, is everyone ahead of him had already started for at least a full season at a different school. The only two who were first time starters were Peters and Speight, both of whom were given far fewer throws and were playing against inferior opponents to top 25 ranked Minnesota.
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Stueber had a great block on Charbonnet’s TD!
I don’t want to decide if the inner dline is big enough until they play Wisconsin. Wisconsin ran rough shod on the dline last year. I hope it won’t happen this year.
All I can say is throw the ball to Sainristil more. He looks great when the bullets are flying.
Im hoping for a Michigan domination next week just if for nothing else to see more if Cade McNamara.
The thing that stood out the most to me is that thete was a high, steady effort from the whole team from the start. There was no slow start like had happened so many times over the last two seasons.
The second thing that stood out the most is the size of the offensive line. All very big, and getting a good push. I hope to See that good push all year, even against Wisconsin, Penn St, and Ohio St. I would love it if there is a great run game in every game. Wisconsin will be the litmus test for that. At least that’s what I think.
I’m glad Michigan football is on again. But really, this year I have been very thankful for any college football. Alabama isn’t my team. But it’s been great watching them because they play good football. Its been really enjoyable. And I’m looking forward to Ohio St vs Penn St. Its feeling good to see real, good football. Just dont like the empty seats.
And coming here to read and comment is a part of that enjoyment. 🙂
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I’m irrationally exuberant about Julius Welschoff. I don’t know why, but I just really want him to succeed. Not that he’ll be a star, but he certainly acquitted himself well in his first extended action.
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