Jeremy Clark
With an eye toward next year, here’s a look at who I’d like to see more of in the future. Of course the bowl game is coming, but the venue and opponent are up in the air at this point. So in other words, seniors are out of the running for “Let’s see more/less of this guy . . . .”
Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . John O’Korn. Early in the year, I was hearing good things coming out of practice. The word was that if O’Korn were eligible to play, he would be on the field instead of Jake Rudock. Of course, Rudock finished the year on a hot streak, and that talk about O’Korn died down during the second half of the year. It’s hard to believe that O’Korn could have outplayed late-season Rudock, but if he’s better or close to better by the beginning of 2016, then Michigan will be in great shape offensively. He’s 6’4″, 220 lbs., has a strong arm, and can run a little bit.
Hit the jump for the rest of the awards.
Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . De’Veon Smith. This one comes as no surprise, but Michigan needs more dynamic play from its running backs. Smith doesn’t need to disappear, but it would be great if he could take a back seat to a more talented running back. Maybe that person is Drake Johnson, who never seemed to get back up to speed after last year’s season-ending ACL tear. Maybe that person is Ty Isaac, who disappeared for the second half of the year. Maybe it’s uncommitted Kareem Walker or incoming freshman Chris Evans. Maybe it will take Jabrill Peppers moving over from defense. But Michigan has an average offensive line, and the production from Smith was below average.
Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Ryan Glasgow. Glasgow has made a steady progression from mediocre backup to solid starter to standout starter. After he got hurt two-thirds of the way through the season, Michigan’s defense fell apart. Glasgow doesn’t make a lot of plays, but he clogs things up in the middle and allows other guys to clean up. Not only did his injury affect the first unit, but the depth wasn’t up to snuff with primary backup Bryan Mone injured. Hopefully, Glasgow can get and stay healthy for his entire fifth year senior season after hurting his pectoral muscle.
Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Channing Stribling. Stribling began the 2015 season as the starter opposite Jourdan Lewis at cornerback, and he did an okay job. But as the season went on, he lost playing time to converted safety Jeremy Clark. Clark had a few growing pains, but generally he had good coverage and tackled well. He ended the regular season as the team leader in interceptions. Stribling has enough talent to contribute, but if both players continue on the same trajectory, he should be backing up Clark next year.
Play of the game . . . Jake Rudock’s 39-yard pass to Amara Darboh. It was nice to see Rudock hit a guy deep, and Darboh laid out for another excellent catch. There weren’t a lot of great plays on Saturday, but that one is most likely to make the highlight reels.
MVP of the game . . . Jake Rudock. Rudock was the main reason that Michigan had a chance going into the second half. Unfortunately, he got wrecked by Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa early in the fourth quarter and had to leave the game. Up until that point, Rudock was 19/32 for 264 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. (For some perspective on how good Rudock was, backup Wilton Speight came in to complete 6/14 passes for 44 yards.) Mostly on the strength of Rudock’s passing ability, Michigan had the most passing yardage of any team against Ohio State this year (Michigan’s 307 passing yards were 26 more than Minnesota’s 281), and they would have stretched that margin even farther with a healthy Rudock.
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Agree about Smith, which is a bit sad, considering that he was by far our most productive ballcarrier this year. But if he is still our #1 option at RB when next season starts, our running game is in trouble, regardless of the state of the offensive line. It’s not like we’re the first team to have 5 star RBs go bust on us, but we can’t seem to find ANYBODY to do a quality job at that position.
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Thunder, do you think that Smith is a viable option at FB next year? He is not ideal size for a FB, but he is physical, can pass protect, catch, and gain tough yardage between tackles. I can see him in a Houma type role.
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I think if you have a couple other guys you can trust at tailback, then Smith would be a viable option at fullback. As the roster stands right now, I don’t think Michigan could afford to move him. Personally, I think he has a better shot of being an NFL fullback than a tailback, so Harbaugh might be able to convince him to take some fullback snaps. As of right now, though, I would expect him to be a tailback next year, just because nobody else has proven himself and we will probably have some attrition at the RB spot.
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To me, seems like Smith could play a BJ Askew type role as an H-Back. The consistently frustrating thing is that he misses gaps. There were times I thought he made a cut or 2 cuts unnecessarily, letting the gap close; or he just cut away from the gap to run right into blockers. I don’t know what it is, but it’s been an issue throughout his career.
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I am thinking that Peppers should compete for the RB position against everyone we already have and hopefully Walker. If Peppers wins out, then he can make the switch and mostly play of offense while giving the safeties a breather on defense. Harbaugh’s system requires a running game and we haven’t had one of those since Denard and Toussaint lit it up in 2011.
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Excellent point.
I think Harbaugh (and/or Drevno, maybe both) have said something to the effect of you ideally have a primary guy and a primary backup, where both are used in every game, but you also need at least a 3rd guy if one is banged up.
I think that doesn’t account for FB, HB, or a 3rd down specialist (if such a guy exists or is needed due to limitations of the primary backs).
So, even if we get Walker (increasingly looking likely) Michigan needs 3 guys.
Johnson may or may not be back and/or healthy. Isaac and Green appear to have one foot out the door. Higdon didn’t show us much. So who are guys #2 and 3 if not Smith?
I do get the desire to move a bigger power back to FB if you can get away with it, but I don’t think Michigan can.
There’s also no guarantee it will work. While yeah, Smith does look like a good blocker on pass plays and operating in space, we’ve never seen him have to do the FB stuff where you rush through a hole and try to displace a front 7 guy. Nothing physically that should prevent him from doing it, but it’s speculative, just as it is with Shallman.
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Derrick Green and Ty Isaac each have their foot out of the door, eh. God. That’s two 5-star runningbacks. Thanks a lot Brady Hoke.
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Stribling/Clark: While I’ve been a staunch advocate and fan of Stribling since he earned playing time as a freshman, I must concede that Clark has seemingly earned more playing time than him this year. I like Clark and think he’s pretty good too. I don’t think it’s a such a cut-and-dry case though, as Stribling has continued to earn significant snaps. Clark was openly picked on in the PSU game, getting targeted again and again before getting pulled on one particular drive. Both are good players. I kind of wonder if Michigan isn’t better off using all 3 of their CBs next year more regularly (and perhaps letting Peppers move to Safety or RB). The reality of it is that you do need 3 pure CBs, but Michigan needs to start rotating in another guy (like maybe Watson) next year to prepare for 2017. Regardless, it’s going to be the best CB corps. Michigan has had since 1997 if Lewis spurns the NFL. Three very good seniors.
Re Smith. Talk to me when we have a better option. Drake Johnson healthy? Haven’t seen it for long, ever. (Maybe he explains that Matt Falcon saga.) Jabril Peppers at RB? Might make sense but he’s a huge asset on defense. Ty Isaac? LOLOLOLOL Kareem Walker? Lets get to signing day first.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Everyone has this backwards. The backs are average, it’s the OL that is well below average for a Big 10 team. Cohesion and consistency matter along the OL which has to play off each other as a collective hole. Michigan’s had 3 OC in 3 years, changed blocking scheme, and shuffled guys around. Expect major improvement next year, and the run game should be a whole lot better: regardless of who the RB is.
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We don’t have it backwards. Michigan is #77 in Adjusted Line Yards, #99 in Standard Down Line Yards, #25 in Passing Down Line Yards, and #29 in Power Success Rate. De’Veon Smith is #211 in the country in yards per carry for qualifying backs. He is below average. Statistically, he is literally the worst starting RB in the Big Ten.
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There are 2 stats that attempt to distinguish OL play from RB play: Adjusted Line Yards and Opportunity rate.
#77 in Adjusted Line Yards is really bad. #99 in standard down line yards (which covers the vast majority of run plays and especially Smith’s run plays) is awful.
#110 in opportunity rate is absolutely atrocious.
Michigan has one of the worst run-blocking OLs in the country – that is what the purely OL stats say.
Now look at the Run Game (i.e., the OL AND RB combined stats):
#56 in Power Success is middling, but better than the pure OL numbers above.
#29 in Stuff Rate is pretty respectable.
Which back handled most of the short-yardage carries for Michigan?
Probably Houma by the end of season but Smith was the other guy.
Which back can you remember breaking the most tackles in the backfield to aid the Stuff Rate stat? Smith is the guy.
The overall run game was pretty bad (#63 Rushing S&P, #58 Rushing Success Rate) but the OL-specific stats are atrocious. The RBs aren’t the problem.
Towit, the OL gave Smith 31% opportunity rate. The fact that he managed 4.0 ypc on this is impressive. Peppers got 4.4 ypc with a 59% opportunity rate.
Now lets look at RB-specific stats. “Highlight yards” measures what a RB does when the OL blocks well enough for him to get past 5 yards. Smith was better than Johnson, Peppers, Houma, Green and everyone besides Isaac (one big play) and Kerridge (ditto) at this stat.
So – why did Smith’s YPC look bad: the OL didn’t block well.
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My LSLOTG on D: backup DL like Strobel and Godin. I want Mone, Glasgow, Henry, Wormley, Charlton, Hurst to ALL be healthy next year. Add in Rashan Gary to the rotation perhaps and there should be no reason for replacement-level guys to be getting meaningful snaps. [Note: this might be unfair to Godin, since he is probably just hurt, but I think we have better options.]
MY LSMOTG on D: Lewis. The NFL isn’t going away and beating OSU your senior year would be forever.
My LSLOTG on O: Mason Cole at Tackle. I’m with Brian Cook here; while Cole is a solid player he doesn’t fit the prototypical mold and seems better suited for a role on the interior – perhaps at OC where we need a reliable replacement.
My LSLOTG on O #2: Grant Perry. Nothing against the guy, who wildly exceeded my preseason expectations, but he cost us the Utah game (arguably) and he’s not scaring anybody with the ball in his hands. Noble blocker but I’d like to see a big play threat. Hopefully a true freshman or Drake Harris or maybe Cole (if he sticks around) can offer more.
My LSMOTG on O: Khalid Hill. Without a reliable or dynamic fullback option returning (Poggi is limited as a pure blocker), I’d like to see more 2-TE sets (i.e., Hill as the H-back). Hill seems to be both adept as a blocker and present a pass-catching threat. With Butt and Hill both in, Michigan has two 2-way TEs that can take what the defense gives them. Hill might end up being an upgrade relative to AJ Williams if he can bump up his blocking a bit.
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Looks like our season will be decisively influenced by whether or not guys like J Lewis and Jake Butt decide to stay or not. We really need them.
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