Nightly Roundup: April 11, 2019

Nightly Roundup: April 11, 2019


April 11, 2019
Rashan Gary

Mike Farrell talks about some potential first-rounders who could end up being busts, and our very own Rashan Gary is on the list (LINK).

Tyrone Wheatley spoke up about what Michigan needs to do to get over the hump and win a national championship (LINK).

Who’s going to win the kicking competition (LINK)?

51 comments

  1. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 12, 2019 at 1:24 PM

    I’d love to make bets with all these Rashan-doubters equating production to sacks. There are many saying the same thing, leveling the same critiques, voicing the same doubts. Maybe they’ll be proven right. I doubt it.

    I think within a few years people will be shaking their heads, wondering why so many teams in the top 5-10 passed on such an obvious talent with high marks for character and work ethic.

    On the question of production I’d point to his role as one of, if not the, best players on multiple elite college defenses. Maybe all that team stuff was more about the people around him – he certainly had some very good players around him.

    I’ve heard and understand the arguments against Rashan. I think they are whack, especially from a NFL perspective. I guess, we’ll find out…

    • 17years
      Comments: 158
      Joined: 2/6/2018
      17years
      Apr 12, 2019 at 7:43 PM

      Having watched Rashan Gary for 3 years I can see why he could fall out of the 1st round. I was a huge fan of his when he was coming out of high school. But I always found myself waiting, every week, for the super beast he was expected to be, to show up in games. It never happened.

      Here is PFF’s take on it. I agree with what they say. The part their analysis that is particularly important starts at 2:40 of the video. They address the points you are trying to make.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCoJh0b6aag

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1234
        Joined: 1/19/2016
        je93
        Apr 13, 2019 at 1:07 AM

        That’s fair. I don’t think he was a bust, but share your unfulfilled anticipation. It just never came, the wow moment

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1046
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        WindyCityBlue
        Apr 13, 2019 at 10:11 AM

        Yep, have to agree. Gary was a good to very good player, but never great, never dominant. Despite being touted as the best defensive line prospect in 10 years, he was nothing close to a generational talent. I know there are some who will claim that a big NFL career will prove that he was a great player at Michigan, but it really doesn’t, any more than a playing flopping in the NFL proves that he WASN’T a great college player. Talking about unrealized potential and working within a “scheme” and such things are fine from a theoretical standpoint, but in the end, how great a player you are in a real world sense is based on the plays you actually make in real games, not the ones you might have made or should have made or could have made. Gary just didn’t make enough big plays to be considered a great college player. He rode his reputation, but was never a jaw-dropping performer.

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4640
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 13, 2019 at 10:26 AM

          Heard similar views on Chris Wormley back when people wanted him benched in favor of Gary. I think Worm’s NFL career to-date has been validating. Guys who got more love like Glasgow and Carlton are still bench players in the NFL while Worm is starting.

          Both Worm and Rashan had great production in the college level. The sack count might not show it, but the defenses were elite and they were a primary factor in that.

          • Avatar
            Comments: 1046
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            WindyCityBlue
            Apr 13, 2019 at 4:02 PM

            WTF does that have to do with anything? Wormley proved it on the field IN college to larger extent than Gary ever did. And I’ll repeat, how a player performed on the field, IN college, is an entirely separate thing from how they eventually do in the NFL. Some guys who were just OK in college blossom in the NFL, and some guys who were big producers in college flame out in the pros, for a variety of reasons. No matter how well Gary does in the NFL, his college production remains what it is.

            And not every player on a great defense is great individually, so that argument of yours falls flat, too.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4640
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 13, 2019 at 5:15 PM

              While I agree that college and NFL are distinct, the results do tell us something about the player and his abilities. It’s another data point in team game where context matters.

              Eric Bledsoe put up similar college stats his freshman year to Muhammad Ali Abdur Rhakman, but the NBA results say Bledsoe was a pretty great player. That situation didn’t lend itself to him to show it statistically, but he produced in other ways and his team won. MAAR had a nice career at Michigan but he wasn’t a better player than Bledsoe, ever.

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4640
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Apr 13, 2019 at 5:50 PM

                We wouldn’t know that Bledsoe is a vastly superior basketball player if we just looked at their college careers. If he had faded into oblivion he would have been just a guy on a John Wall and Demarcus Cousin’s championship team, like MAAR was just a guy on a couple top 10 teams.

                But he was never just a guy, he was a 5-star recruit and is a high end NBA starer. His ‘production’ by the numbers in college didn’t reflect that, but he was far from a disappointment.

                We know that because of what happened in the NBA.

                It’s not everything but it’s relevant – just like Drew Henson battling Tom Brady in college is relevant to our perception of Henson, because of what Brady did in the NFL.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4640
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 13, 2019 at 5:24 PM

              Wormley spent 5 years at Michigan and Gary spent 3. In some ways (like tackles) Gary matched Wormley’s production. You can slice the stats a lot of ways but their production as starters was pretty similar.

              Wormley was named DL of the year in 2016 and the NFL performance has largely validated that selection, though other guys made more highlight plays. Gary won the award in 2017.

              So yeah, just being on a great team isn’t sufficient to be a great player, but when you’re winning awards and forcing offensive coordinators to game plan around you it’s telling, IMO.

              • Avatar
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                je93
                Apr 13, 2019 at 7:08 PM

                Wormley had 3 or 4 games to start 2015 I’m which he made great plays. Almost unblockable at times against Utah. I will remember Gary for the big sack after a penalty against Cincinnati in 2017. That’s it. Really important role, and had a good game against ohio in 2017, but WOW moments? Just that one

                Doesn’t mean he wasn’t really good, or a key piece of a great D, but does back up PFF numbers: he never really jumped off the screen, which is what you expect of the #1 player out of HS, and a top5-10 draft pick

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 13, 2019 at 10:14 AM

        Great link. Thanks for sharing it. Would be a lot of fun to play with the PFF data.

        I appreciate the case that PFF is making but I don’t think they’re capturing the differences in scheme/role/position for the anchor just by filtering out stunts and blitzes on pass rushes.

        Look at the guys he’s being compared to. Most of them are around 260 pounds. One is 235 pounds! The only guy I know on that list that is similar size to Gary is Zach Allen. Are these guys weighing 40, 50, 60 pounds less really playing the same position as Rashan and Chris Wormley played?

        No – most will end up being listed as OLB/DE in the NFL. Nobody is ever going to call Rashan a LB like people do with, for example, Woodley and Graham.

        I see it as something like comparing Rob Gronkowski’s college receiving stats to a bunch of WRs. Split ends and tight ends are different. So are anchor ends and rush ends.

        Really it’s a testament to Gary’s talent that he’s even on the list with these guys. He’s not yet at their level as a rusher but I think that’s missing the point.

        Some may take that as him playing out of position. Maybe he’s going to be a DT or a NT like the the last guy who played anchor at Michigan. Or maybe something in between like a 3-4 DE. There are different types of ends and I’m not sure it matters all that much for Rashan because he’s a helluva football player regardless.

        What speaks volumes to me is that Gary is the guy that defenses focused on doubling – not Wino – an excellent player in his own right.

        If I’m an NFL scout I’m looking beyond the “DE” label and recognizing that Gary’s not the same as all these edge guys. I’m not trying to turn Rashan into Lawrence Taylor, I’m trying to find JJ Watt.

        I’m also going to recognize that he played with a bum shoulder all year and that he’s nearly 3 years younger than a guy like Wino who turns 24 next week (Happy Birthday Chase!).

        • Avatar
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          WindyCityBlue
          Apr 13, 2019 at 4:06 PM

          JJ Watt was a guy that defenses focused on doubling, too. His college production was far better than Gary’s in spite of that. Boca got doubled all the time too, but he still managed to convince everyone that he’s a better player than Gary. No one has Gary above Bosa in their mock.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4640
            Joined: 8/11/2015
            Lanknows
            Apr 13, 2019 at 5:33 PM

            Here are JJ Watt, Rashan Gary, and Chris Wormley, college totals:

            Tackles: 106, 119, 119
            TFL: 36.5, 23, 31.5,
            Sacks: 11.5, 9.5, 17.5

            Different circumstances, ages, number of seasons, health issues, but if you’re talking about ‘production’ in college these guys are in the same range.

            • Thunder
              Comments: 2951
              Joined: 7/13/2015
              Apr 13, 2019 at 10:31 PM

              I’m not really sure I buy that. Watt was a 2-star TE recruit (or whatever, it doesn’t really matter that much) and only really played two seasons, during which he racked up superior numbers to Gary. I don’t see how you can sit there and imply that a guy who played three years with worse stats is on par with a guy who played two years with better stats. It’s not the same production when one guy averages 18 TFLs and 6 sacks while the other guy averages 8 TFLs and 3 sacks. Not at all the same. I’m surprised you’re willing to make that argument.

              Anyway, we’ve discussed this before, but Rashan Gary was a fine college player. If he came in as a 3-star or a nondescript 4-star, his career would be cool and everything. But when you have the reputation as the #1 player in the whole country, those numbers aren’t impressive.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4640
              Joined: 8/11/2015
              Lanknows
              Apr 14, 2019 at 10:05 AM

              We’ve gotten a bit off track IMO. The questions of NFL potential, college production, and fan emotions are related but distinct. People’s reactions to expectations due to recruiting rankings is a different conversation.

              I agree that Gary/Watt had different careers but the same goes for Gary/Wormley.

              Gary was in college 3 years, Watt 4, Wormley 5. Watt, Wormley, and Winovich were all just emerging in college at Gary’s age.

              If we’re talking about production it shouldn’t be held against Gary that he was immediately a contributor as a freshman instead of going on a development ‘journey’, transferring, or playing offense.

              From the NFL perspective, being 21 instead of 23 or 24 is highly relevant. The vast majority of athletes peak in their mid to late 20s. It’s possible that Gary peaked at 20. It’s more likely he has a lot of room for growth – more than older players.

            • Lanknows
              Comments: 4640
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              Lanknows
              Apr 14, 2019 at 10:13 AM

              What this boils down to, I suspect, is that perception is mostly based on how a player did in his final season.

              I think all those development years and scholarships spent and contributions as a back-up belong in the equation for production.

              In the case of Gary, if you dropped him 5 spots in the recruiting rankings, gave him a red-shirt year, and flipped his performance in 2017 and (injury-marred) 2018, you’d have a player that is universally beloved, even though he would have been equally or less productive. Interesting.

          • Lanknows
            Comments: 4640
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            Lanknows
            Apr 13, 2019 at 5:35 PM

            Bosa should be a top 10 draft pick too. Dude was a terror. I hope he’s the last sibling.

            • Avatar
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              WindyCityBlue
              Apr 14, 2019 at 7:29 AM

              Sorry, but again wtf does that have to do with the point I made? Just a lame distraction. The whole “Gary was double-teamed all the time” meme to excuse why his stats weren’t that great just doesn’t wash, if you look at guys like Bosa and a bunch of others.

              It’s like a conspiracy nut admitting that there’s no evidence for his conspiracy, but saying that just proves how good a conspiracy it is, because the evidence is being covered up so well.

              • GKblue
                Comments: 281
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                GKblue
                Apr 14, 2019 at 10:09 AM

                Ha! Sometimes humor really is better than a mallet.

                I can’t help but wonder what his senior season would have have looked like without his shoulder injury. To be honest like many I didn’t think he lived up to his hype either.

                • GKblue
                  Comments: 281
                  Joined: 8/11/2015
                  GKblue
                  Apr 14, 2019 at 10:13 AM

                  Edit: junior season. I didn’t expect him to come back and play a fourth year.

              • Lanknows
                Comments: 4640
                Joined: 8/11/2015
                Lanknows
                Apr 14, 2019 at 10:21 AM

                I don’t understand your point. You brought up Bosa, not me.

                I disagree with your argument that Watt and Wormley were productive and Gary wasn’t.

                Getting double teamed isn’t an excuse for lack of production, because I’m disagreeing that lack of production is a thing.

  2. Avatar
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    je93
    Apr 13, 2019 at 10:48 AM

    So in other words, a really good player on a great D

    We’ll miss the group, and even the player. But others have come in and then left bigger roles to fill

  3. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 14, 2019 at 11:05 AM

    Expectations:

    I think it’s a bit sad that many Michigan fans won’t celebrate having a great player like Rashan Gary – mostly because he came in with high rating. If people expect the #1 recruit to be the #1 player, he is going to disappoint 99% of the time. I think it’s unreasonable, but whatever. I’m bored of having the expectations conversation. People can feel how they want to feel.

    My personal expectations for the #1 recruit in the country are based on the history of #1 recruits; that includes busts and all-americans but most fall somewhere in between. By that logic, Gary met expectations.

    College Production:
    Is more than sacks. Depends on context, role, etc. Gary had 3 good years and produced at a very high level. Very few have done what he did in just 3 years and before turning 21. Even the disappointing 2018 season was still good enough for 1st team all conference, injury and all.

    NFL Potential:
    We’ll see. I think Gary is Top 10 guy based on what I saw from him in college. Maybe the doubters will be proven right and Gary won’t be a good enough pass-rusher in the NFL. Maybe I’ll just be a late arrival to the “disappointed in Rashan Gary” party if he doesn’t deliver.

    I think he will. If he does I think that will be relevant to how we look at his Michigan career and specifically how we define success for the Anchor position. Conversely, if he falls flat, I think the people calling Gary a disappointment and saying he didn’t produce will have a much stronger case.

    • Thunder
      Comments: 2951
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Apr 14, 2019 at 11:20 AM

      Fair or unfair, you only get three years from a lot of players with good/great talent. The players staying for four or five years are often late bloomers, guys with an injury history, etc.

      Gary didn’t produce at a very high level. That’s what this whole discussion is about, and numerous national people have said the same thing. It’s not just a few grumpy people in the Michigan blogosphere. Gary didn’t produce. Everybody knows it. He averaged 7.8 tackles for loss and 3.3 sacks a season. That’s not a very high level. His 10 career sacks (per MGoBlue) place him tied for #21 all-time at Michigan, one spot lower than Craig Roh and one spot higher than Pierre Woods, and tied with Patt Massey and Grant Bowman. His 23.5 career tackles for loss are #25 all-time, right between Grant Bowman and Carl Diggs. And they didn’t really start counting those stats until the mid-1990s.

      By those stats, Rashan Gary is the #21 sacker and #25 tackler for losses AT MICHIGAN and in the last TWENTY-FIVE YEARS.

      I don’t think anyone is arguing that Rashan Gary sucks. He doesn’t. But was he productive? Absolutely not. It’s an absurd argument.

      • Avatar
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        je93
        Apr 14, 2019 at 11:40 AM

        Craig “Death” Roh, lol

      • Avatar
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        WindyCityBlue
        Apr 14, 2019 at 6:08 PM

        Yeah, but that’s not fair, because Rashan Gary was being triple-teamed on every play, while Craig Roh was being escorted to the QB by opposing left tackles on a regular basis

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4640
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          Lanknows
          Apr 15, 2019 at 10:01 AM

          To me it’s more about the anchor position than the double teams. I don’t think it’s a pin-your-ears-back spot like the weak-side end.

    • Avatar
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      WindyCityBlue
      Apr 14, 2019 at 6:06 PM

      So please, give us your list of the top 10 best Michigan Defensive linemen over the last 20 years. Where does Rashan Gary, #1 recruit in the country and best defensive line prospect in the last decade, rate?

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 15, 2019 at 9:56 AM

        A fun exercise but ultimately it depends on your definition. We can count sacks but then a guy like Mike Martin is going to be woefully underrated.

        I look at things like games played/started vs years in the program, all-conference/american honors, contribution to overall team defensive performance, and total tackles/TFL/sacks.

        I don’t know that I can name 5 guys who were more productive than Gary off the top of my head but we could probably get there. How many of them have been multi-year 1st team all conference? Not many. Wormley probably gets the edge for overall production but it took him 5 years to get there. It’s close…

        I’d put Martin #1 because of what he did for 4 years and how much was asked of him even though his stats are not as good as Van Bergen to some eyes. Both were very productive but also on some of the worst defenses Michigan’s ever had. Mo Hurst was arguably the most talented and his 2017 is probably the best single season by a DL, but he also spent 4 years in the program being a backup. Martin and Gary didn’t have that sort of time.

        Michigan football has had a luxurious bounty of excellent DLmen in the last decade. It would take a good deal more thought than this to rank them properly. I encourage you to take a whack at it and I’ll gladly give you my thoughts and lay out where I disagree (assuming I do.)

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
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        Lanknows
        Apr 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM

        I would guess Gary ranks around 5th, to answer your question. I’d have to put more thought into it though…

    • Avatar
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      WindyCityBlue
      Apr 14, 2019 at 6:10 PM

      No, Gary did not meet expectations. The expectation for a #1 recruit is to be an All-American. Yes, some #1 recruits fall short of those expectations, and Gary was one of them.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 15, 2019 at 9:58 AM

        The majority of recruits fall short of this. What is your expectation based on? And why just all-american? Why not Heisman and/or #1 NFL draft pick overall?

  4. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 14, 2019 at 11:27 AM

    Do people here think Nick Bosa was a disappointment?

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4640
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 15, 2019 at 9:59 AM

      I suspect most OSU fans don’t see Bosa as a disappointment.

  5. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:20 PM

    “STRENGTHS Great combination of size, strength and speed for a 3-4 defensive end prospect. At his best against the run. Keeps blockers off his body, has the diagnosing skills to find the football and can get off blocks and make plays. Shows impressive stamina for a big d-end staying on the field for third down and playing all four quarters.

    WEAKNESSES Probably will never be an impact pass rusher, hasnt put up big sack totals, but still works hard in that area. Despite good bulk, may be considered a bit light in the pants for what some teams are looking for in their three-man front..”

    This is the NFL draft profile for Cameron Jordan, who I was thinking about while reading an NFL draft preview from the Ringer. They list Jordan (and Robert Nkimdiche) as player comps for Rashan Gary.

    COMPARABLE PLAYERS:

    Nkimdiche is a natural comp to Gary (6’5 283) since he was also the #1 overall recruit and is similar sized (6’4 296). Though he was/is considered more of a DT he played DE as well. Jordan is similar sized (6’4 287) but was a generic 3-star recruit. All of them are 1st round NFL picks.

    COLLEGE PRODUCTION:

    Jordan played 4 years in college while Nkimdiche and Gary played 3. Here is their total college production:

    Jordan: 175 tackles, 34.0 TFL, 16.5 sacks in 60 games.
    Gary 119 tackles, 23.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks in 34 games.
    Nkimdiche: 81 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks in 29 games.

    Per game production tackles: 2.9, 3.5, 2.8. Gary is highest.
    Per game production TFL: 0.6, 0.7, 0.6. Gary is highest.
    Per game production sacks: 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 Gary is highest.

    COLLEGE HONORS:
    Jordan: 1 season first team all conference + 2 honorable mention, 1 season all-american honorable mention
    Gary: 2 seasons first team all conference, 0 all american recognition
    Nkimdiche: 2 seasons first team all conference, 2 seasons all american honors

    NFL OUTCOMES:

    Nkimdiche is mostly a bust so far. He has battled injuries and still has potential, but only produced modestly when he has played. 44 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 27 games over 3 seasons.

    Jordan, in contrast, is a massive success. Multi-time all-pro with 71 sacks in 8 seasons and too many accolades to bother listing. One of the best DE in the game.

    Gary: TBD

  6. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:22 PM

    “STRENGTHS Great combination of size, strength and speed for a 3-4 defensive end prospect. At his best against the run. Keeps blockers off his body, has the diagnosing skills to find the football and can get off blocks and make plays. Shows impressive stamina for a big d-end staying on the field for third down and playing all four quarters.

    WEAKNESSES Probably will never be an impact pass rusher, hasnt put up big sack totals, but still works hard in that area. Despite good bulk, may be considered a bit light in the pants for what some teams are looking for in their three-man front..”

    This is the NFL draft profile for Cameron Jordan, who I was thinking about while reading an NFL draft preview from the Ringer. They list Jordan and Robert Nkimdiche as player comps for Rashan Gary.

    COMPARABLE PLAYERS

    Nkimdiche is a natural comp to Gary 6’5 283 since he was also the #1 overall recruit and is similar sized 6’4 296. Though he was/is considered more of a DT he played DE as well. Jordan is similar sized 6’4 287 but was a generic 3-star recruit. All of them are 1st round NFL picks.

    COLLEGE PRODUCTION

    Jordan played 4 years in college while Nkimdiche and Gary played 3. Here is their total college production:

    Jordan – 175 tackles, 34.0 TFL, 16.5 sacks in 60 games.
    Gary – 119 tackles, 23.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks in 34 games.
    Nkimdiche – 81 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks in 29 games.

    Per game production tackles- 2.9, 3.5, 2.8. Gary is highest.
    Per game production TF-: 0.6, 0.7, 0.6. Gary is highest.
    Per game production sacks-: 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 Gary is highest.

    COLLEGE HONORS:
    Jordan- 1 season first team all conference + 2 honorable mention, 1 season all-american honorable mention
    Gary- 2 seasons first team all conference, 0 all american recognition
    Nkimdiche- 2 seasons first team all conference, 2 seasons all american honors

    NFL OUTCOMES

    Nkimdiche is mostly a bust so far. He has battled injuries and still has potential, but only produced modestly when he has played. 44 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 27 games over 3 seasons.

    Jordan in contrast is a massive success. Multi-time all-pro with 71 sacks in 8 seasons and too many accolades to bother listing. One of the best DE in the game.

    Gary TBD

  7. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:23 PM

    I was thinking about Cameron Jordan while reading an NFL draft preview from the Ringer. They list Jordan and Robert Nkimdiche as player comps for Rashan Gary.

    COMPARABLE PLAYERS

    Nkimdiche is a natural comp to Gary 6’5 283 since he was also the #1 overall recruit and is similar sized 6’4 296. Though he was/is considered more of a DT he played DE as well. Jordan is similar sized 6’4 287 but was a generic 3-star recruit. All of them are 1st round NFL picks.

    COLLEGE PRODUCTION

    Jordan played 4 years in college while Nkimdiche and Gary played 3. Here is their total college production:

    Jordan – 175 tackles, 34.0 TFL, 16.5 sacks in 60 games.
    Gary – 119 tackles, 23.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks in 34 games.
    Nkimdiche – 81 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks in 29 games.

    Per game production tackles- 2.9, 3.5, 2.8. Gary is highest.
    Per game production TF-: 0.6, 0.7, 0.6. Gary is highest.
    Per game production sacks-: 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 Gary is highest.

    COLLEGE HONORS:
    Jordan- 1 season first team all conference + 2 honorable mention, 1 season all-american honorable mention
    Gary- 2 seasons first team all conference, 0 all american recognition
    Nkimdiche- 2 seasons first team all conference, 2 seasons all american honors

    NFL OUTCOMES

    Nkimdiche is mostly a bust so far. He has battled injuries and still has potential, but only produced modestly when he has played. 44 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 27 games over 3 seasons.

    Jordan in contrast is a massive success. Multi-time all-pro with 71 sacks in 8 seasons and too many accolades to bother listing. One of the best DE in the game.

    Gary TBD

  8. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:24 PM

    I was thinking about Cameron Jordan while reading an NFL draft preview from the Ringer. They list Jordan and Robert Nkimdiche as player comps for Rashan Gary.

    COMPARABLE PLAYERS

    Nkimdiche is a natural comp to Gary 6 5 283 since he was also the #1 overall recruit and is similar sized 6 4 296. Though he was/is considered more of a DT he played DE as well. Jordan is similar sized 6 4 287 but was a generic 3-star recruit. All of them are 1st round NFL picks.

    COLLEGE PRODUCTION

    Jordan played 4 years in college while Nkimdiche and Gary played 3. Here is their total college production:

    Jordan – 175 tackles, 34.0 TFL, 16.5 sacks in 60 games.
    Gary – 119 tackles, 23.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks in 34 games.
    Nkimdiche – 81 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks in 29 games.

    Per game production tackles- 2.9, 3.5, 2.8. Gary is highest.
    Per game production TF- 0.6, 0.7, 0.6. Gary is highest.
    Per game production sacks- 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 Gary is highest.

    COLLEGE HONORS:
    Jordan- 1 season first team all conference + 2 honorable mention, 1 season all-american honorable mention
    Gary- 2 seasons first team all conference, 0 all american recognition
    Nkimdiche- 2 seasons first team all conference, 2 seasons all american honors

    NFL OUTCOMES

    Nkimdiche is mostly a bust so far. He has battled injuries and still has potential, but only produced modestly when he has played. 44 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 27 games over 3 seasons.

    Jordan in contrast is a massive success. Multi-time all-pro with 71 sacks in 8 seasons and too many accolades to bother listing. One of the best DE in the game.

    Gary TBD

  9. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:26 PM

    Name the player. Here is an NFL draft profile for a 1st round DL pick.

    STRENGTHS Great combination of size, strength and speed for a 3-4 defensive end prospect. At his best against the run. Keeps blockers off his body, has the diagnosing skills to find the football and can get off blocks and make plays. Shows impressive stamina for a big d-end staying on the field for third down and playing all four quarters.

    WEAKNESSES Probably will never be an impact pass rusher, hasnt put up big sack totals, but still works hard in that area. Despite good bulk, may be considered a bit light in the pants for what some teams are looking for in their three-man front.

  10. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:29 PM

    Name the player. Here is an NFL draft profile for a 1st round DL pick.

    STRENGTHS Exceptional build. Carries no bad weight and has outstanding thickness and power through his rear, thighs and calves. Plus movement skills and runs like a defensive end. Has reactive explosiveness for expanded range as tackler near line of scrimmage. Wrap up finisher who won’t allow running backs out of his grasp. Plays with good lateral quickness and can win the race across the face of blockers.

    WEAKNESSES For all the talent and athletic traits, his production was disappointing. Produced low tackle totals and just 6.5 sacks over three years. Never forced or recovered a fumble. Ducks head into initial off snap losing track of the ball. Tightly ­wound, straight-line athlete who needs play to stay inside his optimal area of movement. Inconsistent effort after his initial pass rush move is thwarted. Needs to develop a counter rush move.

  11. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:30 PM

    This first NFL profile above is for Cameron Jordan, who I was thinking about while reading an NFL draft preview from the Ringer. The second is Robert Nkimdiche who is the other player comp given for Gary.

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4640
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 16, 2019 at 1:31 PM

      Nkimdiche is a natural comp to Gary 6’5 283 since he was also the top overall recruit and is similar sized 6’4 296. Though he was/is considered more of a DT, he played DE as well.

      Jordan is similar sized 6’4 287 but was a generic 3-star recruit.

      All of them are 1st round NFL picks.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 16, 2019 at 1:32 PM

        COLLEGE PRODUCTION

        Jordan played 4 years in college while Nkimdiche and Gary played 3.

        Jordan – 175 tackles, 34.0 TFL, 16.5 sacks in 60 games.
        Gary – 119 tackles, 23.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks in 34 games.
        Nkimdiche – 81 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks in 29 games.

        Per game production tackles- 2.9, 3.5, 2.8. Gary is highest.
        Per game production TF-: 0.6, 0.7, 0.6. Gary is highest.
        Per game production sacks-: 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 Gary is highest.

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 16, 2019 at 1:32 PM

        COLLEGE HONORS:
        Jordan- 1 season first team all conference + 2 honorable mention, 1 season all-american honorable mention

        Gary- 2 seasons first team all conference, 0 all american recognition

        Nkimdiche- 2 seasons first team all conference, 2 seasons all american honors

  12. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:33 PM

    COLLEGE HONORS:

    Nkimdiche- 2 seasons first team all conference, 2 seasons all american honors

    Jordan- 1 season first team all conference and 2 with honorable mention, 1 season all-american honorable mention

    Gary- 2 seasons first team all conference, 0 all american recognition

    • Lanknows
      Comments: 4640
      Joined: 8/11/2015
      Lanknows
      Apr 16, 2019 at 1:34 PM

      NFL OUTCOMES

      Nkimdiche is mostly a bust so far. He has battled injuries and still has potential, but only produced modestly when he has played. 44 tackles and 4.5 sacks in 27 games over 3 seasons.

      Jordan in contrast is a massive success. Multi-time all-pro with 71 sacks in 8 seasons and too many accolades to bother listing. One of the best DE in the game.

      Gary TBD

  13. Lanknows
    Comments: 4640
    Joined: 8/11/2015
    Lanknows
    Apr 16, 2019 at 1:38 PM

    My absurd opinion is that there are a lot of parallels between these players and that the Ringer identified some pretty good comps. Similar measurables. Similar college production. Similar draft profiles.

    Nkimdiche is a bit bigger but came loaded with character questions.

    Jordan came without the hype and was more of a late bloomer

    • Thunder
      Comments: 2951
      Joined: 7/13/2015
      Apr 16, 2019 at 2:40 PM

      I appreciate the effort, but I guess I don’t get the point. I think we’re all pretty much in agreement that Rashan Gary will go in the first round (or high in round two if he falls for some reason), regardless of his college production. The data here seems to illustrate that sometimes guys with mediocre production do well, and sometimes they don’t. It’s not really conclusive evidence of anything.

      I guess if that’s all you were trying to show, I get it. Just not sure if I’m missing something…

      • Lanknows
        Comments: 4640
        Joined: 8/11/2015
        Lanknows
        Apr 16, 2019 at 3:56 PM

        Mostly just sharing. I found the comps interesting and thought others might too. Especially the commonalities between the draft profiles in relation to a relative lack of sacks.

        I did not intend to imply that the two anecdotal examples were definitively predictive of NFL success. [Since they are different that wouldn’t make sense anyway.]

        My intent wasn’t to make some big point but now that you make me think about it I would say there are two:

        1. The comps both illustrate that you don’t need to have big sack numbers to be ‘productive’. Both Jordan and Nkimdiche where widely honored at the college level – even more widely than Gary. Jordan definitively disproved the lack of “production” criticism that was called out in his draft profile at the next level. The bigger questions with Nkimdiche were character-related, but I don’t think he disproved any of his doubters yet.

        2. There are better comps out there then the 260 pound dudes PFF compared Gary to to backup their “bad production” critique. I bet Nkimdiche and Jordan wouldn’t have done so well in that analysis either.

      • Avatar
        Comments: 1170
        Joined: 8/13/2015
        Roanman
        Apr 17, 2019 at 10:35 AM

        By name, Anchor, the position Gary plays is implied a stay home bias in technique. I can’t see it very often on television, but you can occasionally see Gary holding and reading, whereas on the other side I very seldom see a true hold and read technique.

        The one complaint against Winovich was the occasional run himself out of the play thing. So here’s the question, is there an inherent position bias in technique between the two end positions?

        • Lanknows
          Comments: 4640
          Joined: 8/11/2015
          Lanknows
          Apr 17, 2019 at 11:44 AM

          Not sure what is meant here by bias but it seems like the responsibilities are often different. The personnel (Wormley/Gary) has certainly been.

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