Taysom Hill
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It’s probably no secret at this point that Michigan is considering bringing in competition at the quarterback position for next year. Starting quarterback Jake Rudock had a pretty good regular season, especially during the second half of the year, but he has exhausted his eligibility. That leaves second-stringer Wilton Speight, third-stringer Shane Morris, transfer John O’Korn, incoming freshman Brandon Peters, and totally unproven youngsters Alex Malzone and Zach Gentry. O’Korn is the odds-on favorite of that group to win the job next year, but Michigan is expecting to lose some of those depth players to transfers this winter. Here is a look at at the group of players who are possibilities to end up at Michigan, although candidates may be added to this list down the road. (Players are listed with their 2016 eligibility.)
Hit the jump for the five potential transfer options:
THE CANDIDATES
Kyle Allen, Jr. – Texas A&M: Allen is a 6’3″, 210 lb. sophomore who would have to sit out a year since he’s an underclassman transfer. This past season, he 160/283 (56.5%) for 2,210 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in Kevin Sumlin’s pass-happy offense. He also had 65 rushing attempts for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns. Michigan was not involved in his original recruitment as a part of the 2014 class when the Wolverines took Wilton Speight. Originally from Arizona, Allen was a 247 Composite 5-star, the #1 pro-style QB, and #10 overall.
Taysom Hill, 5th – BYU: Hill is a 6’2″, 234 lb. senior who can play immediately as a graduate transfer. A multi-year starter at BYU, he only played one game this year before a third career significant injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. He was 21/34 (61.8%) for 268 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception; also an adept runner, he ran 9 times for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hill was not recruited by Michigan coming out of high school, but he committed to Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in the class of 2009 (his college career was delayed because of his mission work). BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall took the job at Virginia this off-season, so Charlottesville could be another possible landing spot. Originally from Idaho, he was a 247 Composite 3-star, the #27 pro-style QB, and #741 overall out of Idaho.
Trevor Knight, 5th – Oklahoma: Knight is a 6’1″, 210 lb. senior who can play immediately as a graduate transfer. A starter of 15 career games at Oklahoma, he lost his job to Baker Mayfield this past season. As the Sooners’ starter in 2014, he completed 179/316 passes (56.6%) for 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; he also had 68 rushing attempts for 339 yards and 5 touchdowns. Knight was not recruited by Michigan coming out of high school. Originally from Texas, he was a 247 Composite 4-star, the #11 pro-style QB, and #288 overall.
Dakota Prukop, 5th – Montana State: Prukop is a 6’2″, 200 lb. junior who should be able to play immediately as a graduate transfer. He was Montana State’s starter for the past two seasons. This past season, he completed 201/323 passes (62.1%) for 2,799 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions against FCS competition; he also ran 153 times for 774 yards and 11 touchdowns. Unranked by most of the major sites, he was an ESPN 3-star and the #49 QB in the class of 2012. Originally from the state of Texas, he was not on Michigan’s radar in the class of 2012.
Patrick Towles, 5th – Kentucky: Towles is a 6’5″, 240 lb. senior who can play immediately as a graduate transfer. A two-year starter for the Wildcats, he completed 183/326 passes (56.1%) for 2,148 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions this past season; he also had 71 rushing attempts for 64 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those touchdown and interception numbers were reversed as a redshirt sophomore in 2014, so his performance tailed off this past season. Originally from the state of Kentucky, he was not recruited by Michigan out of high school. He was a 247 Composite 4-star, the #15 pro-style QB, and #348 overall in the 2012 class. Interesting tidbit: Towles’s high school QB coach was “The Hefty Lefty” Jared Lorenzen.
ANALYSIS
I will inevitably be asked which quarterback(s) I prefer, so I’ll go ahead and put my thoughts here. First of all, I believe that O’Korn is the best option to start next year, given all of these candidates and the current members of Michigan’s roster. He will be a redshirt junior in 2016 with two years of eligibility, and he already has one year in Michigan’s offensive system, although he was mostly running the scout team due to NCAA transfer rules. Somewhat like Allen, he took a step back from his freshman to sophomore year at Houston, and he was benched in that second year. However, he has the size, athleticism, and arm strength you’re looking for in a Jim Harbaugh type of offense, and he has received praise this fall for his practice performances.
Here’s how I would prioritize the rest of the group:
- Taysom Hill: Hill is very fragile, but he is a proven performer at a high level. He can throw fairly well, and he’s a good runner. The big problem I see here is that if you’re looking to bring in competition, it doesn’t do much good to bring in a guy who has a very good chance of being broken. He also has some issues with mechanics, but that’s more of a question for moving up to the NFL. It doesn’t concern me much since he has already shown that he can be successful in college with his current throwing motion.
- Patrick Towles: Despite the low completion percentage, Towles has some of the same qualities as O’Korn – big, strong, can run a little bit, etc. He has stayed healthy during his career, and some of his incompletion issues can probably be attributed to the fact that he plays for Kentucky. He’s more likely to stay on the field than Hill, but he won’t be as productive. Still, I like his game and think he might be helped by a quality coaching staff. And as I mentioned, he’s a decent runner (and better than his 2015 rushing numbers suggest).
- Kyle Allen: Allen doesn’t help you this year, because he has to sit out a season. However, he was a 5-star recruit and an Army All-American, and he has actually performed pretty well at Texas A&M in his career (33 TDs, 14 INTs). I don’t think there’s much question that he could be a successful quarterback, although he might need that transition year to work on dropping back from under center. He gives you competition in 2017 and 2018, but O’Korn may be a second-year starter in 2017, and it might be too crowded of a depth chart for someone like Allen to want to enter.
- Dakota Prukop: Prukop has a lot of upside for someone, but it may not be Michigan. He can run fairly well, which is why there are some rumblings about him ending up at Oregon. His Montana State team runs a spread offense that looks a lot like what you might see from Dana Holgorsen, and a lot of his throws are to wide-open receivers. He won’t have the same gaping windows in the Big Ten, and I think going from his current offense to Michigan’s offense might be too big of a gap to overcome in one off-season.
- Trevor Knight: Knight wasn’t very productive in a high-powered Oklahoma offense that has been known over the years for its production (Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, etc.). He can run, but arm strength and decision-making are both questions for him. I don’t think he’s an answer for most Power Five teams unless they’re desperate for bodies at the quarterback position.
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Considering how important the QB is to any offense, I love the fact that he’s making things as competitive as he can. With that said, though, I think we are much more needy at LB and DL. If I was Harbaugh, I’d look for a grad transfer at LB and DL, too.
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Great post.
Take the guy you like least in this recruiting class (Weaver at DE? Richardson at CB) and consider deferring his scholarship to a similar guy in the ’17 class instead. Weigh that cost against the benefit of a potential 5th year senior QB on the roster. One who could be a heisman contender or (if that’s too optimistic for you), weigh it against the cost of a Rudock-level reliable back-up who can come in and play at a Rudock level and at least compete, if not beat out O’Korn for a starting spot.
That’s what a 5th year guy is. Not, as most people see it, one player for a 4-year scholarship player. One Jared Wanger = Jake Rudock + Wayne Lyons + Blake Countess + Blake O’Neill. That’s the math in terms of scholarship-years.
To me, all the 5th year guys named above would be pretty obvious takes. I can’t emphasize enough what a bargain a 5th year transfer is. You spend 1 scholarship-year, and you get 1 year of contributor. Compared to a HS recruit, the cost/benefit ratio is vastly higher.
The one guy I would be hesitant on is Allen. There you know you are dropping an entire scholarship-year for him to sit on the bench. Same situation with O’Korn, but the difference in circumstances was enormous. Michigan knew they didn’t have any veteran depth in 2016 (relying on only recruits, Speight, and Morris). For Allen, he’d be competing with O’Korn, Peters, Gentry, and others.
I don’t know all the particulars of the situation at TAMU, but Allen (like Ty Isaac) already lost one competition, so he’s probably not an elite player. I wouldn’t necessarily be bummed if he came in, but to me it’s a tough sell vs. a 5th year guy given the level of investment required.
The guy I want most BY FAR is Taysom Hill, who has Heisman-caliber talent. Everyone is caught up on the injury situation, but if even if he gives you half a season at an elite level, that’s a huge gain. Even if he’s just a dangerous backup, that’s a huge gain. Again, the cost here is very small: 1 scholarship-year (NOT 1 scholarship, in the 4-year sense).
Prukop sounds like he’s going elsewhere, which makes sense given fit.
Knight sounds like he could be a backup. (As with Rudock, there isn’t necessarily a lot of shame in losing to a better QB). Not sure Knowles situation, but if he’s willing to compete and potentially backup O’Korn sounds like another obvious take.
Let’s go get em!
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I’m sure the info is a lot harder to find, since everyone loves to give QBs all the attention, but Michigan has 3 positions, maybe 4, where a grad transfer makes a ton of sense:
ILB
FB
Rush End/LB
and probably deep safety
I’d love to see a similar list of potential candidates (lower-level stand outs like Prukop, vets going through a coaching change, guys with ties to harbaugh, guys with an injury history needing a fresh start, etc.)
FB is the position where I see the best fit of all because the skills are going to be pretty universal and there is no obvious in-house fit for a prototypical FB. Anybody know of some guys?
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Those guys just don’t seem to transfer as often and use the fifth year exception. It seems to make sense in that if you’re a linebacker or a defensive end, there are lots of ways to get on the field (2-4 starting linebackers, 2 starting defensive ends, ample rotation at either spot). If you can’t get on the field somewhere else, then you’re unlikely to find a starting job by transferring to another big program.
It makes some sense for a guy like Keith Heitzman to transfer from Michigan to Ohio, because the MAC has a weaker talent pool. But is Wisconsin or Florida’s fifth or sixth linebacker guaranteed to find greener pastures at Michigan? It seems to make more sense to transfer to Northern Illinois or FAU or Central Florida if you’re going to transfer anywhere.
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I get that that guys from position groups are less common than guys who play a single position (that doesn’t) rotate like QB or Punter, but there’s still plenty of examples. Countess and Lyons are good, Michigan-specific examples, of guys who made essentially lateral moves. There was that OC from Alabama who people starting including in projected UM rosters and then went to OSU (and then got hurt) too in 2014. Alabama’s (Alabama!!!) top WR this year, Mullaney came from Oregon State – after being hurt. The DE that was hurt and switched from Cal to Stanford. I could go on and on…
It’s a huge opportunity for a high profile school like Michigan to call up under-recruited / under-utilized players who are elite at a lower level and give them a shot to compete. Especially when teams have a coaching change — that’s an opportunity since they’ll experience big change either way.
I think the case for a FB is pretty easy (We’ll give you the ball and you’ll play A LOT). I think the case for LBs is a bit tougher, because yeah those guys sometimes rotate a lot, but again you have the Countess/Lyons examples – sometimes people just want a change of scenery, new coach, new opportunities, etc. Plenty of playing time available, so why rotate (at say, Florida or Stanford) when you can become an every-down guy at Michigan?
What I’m most interested in though, is the FCS-level guys who are all-americans at that level but having something to prove on a bigger stage. Find a Grad version of Duncan Robinson. To me, there’s a JUCO-level production opportunity, without the off-field baggage. A chance to get a contributor, even if he isn’t elite, he can shore up a roster weakness without the team giving much up.
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I will point out again, in response to the characterization of Malzone and Gentry as “totally unproven youngsters”, that Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston were “totally unproven youngsters” at the start of the seasons when they won Heisman trophies. Malzone and Gentry were both highly rated recruits, so why is it assumed that they need 3-4 years on the bench before we can hope for them to contribute? How are they ever supposed to go from “unproven” to “proven” if we keep bringing in fifth year guys to shove back their chance another year? If next season goes like this one, only misfortunate will give even our second string QB a chance at significant snaps.
Does no one have confidence in this coaching staff’s ability to develop our own players? Is six scholarship QBs (pretty much all highly rated) not enough for them to get one quality starter and one decent backup? You can talk all you want about “competition”, but by that logic, why not have 8 or 9 QBs on scholarship? Because at some point you have to say that you have enough, and move on to other positions of need. For every additional guy you bring in at QB, that’s that much LESS competition you have at other positions (and at LB next year, it’s not even a matter of competition, but just having enough bodies to fill out a 2 deep).
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The coaches have seen all those guys in practice. If they think it’s necessary to bring in more talent, then so be it, as far as I’m concerned. You mentioned two stars (and I know there are others), but there are plenty of examples of quarterbacks who don’t develop until their third, fourth, or fifth years. Jake Rudock was nothing special as a redshirt sophomore, improved as a redshirt junior, and then got to be very good during the second half of his redshirt senior year. Paxton Lynch had a 9-to-10 TD-to-INT rate two years ago, and this year he was up to 28-to-3. Sean Maguire at Florida State is another player who was not ready one or two years ago, but now he looks like he might be the real deal.
Players develop at different rates.
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Most development happens in practice.
Those guys have plenty of opportunity to beat out the 5th year guy.
Michigan can’t put individual players ahead of The Team.
Why not have 8 QBs on the roster? Great question. Increasingly, coaches are realizing that might be a better way to do it. It’s the most important position. Do you need 8 or 9 WR? No, you don’t. Can you get by with some walk-ons at other positions? – yeah you can.
Attrition is going to happen, especially when you have 8 fighting for 1 spot. So you can’t just apply the current roster/age and look out 2 years in advance anymore. Have to win now.
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