As you may have noticed, I have been posting a little more regularly this week. Life is still kind of crazy, but unfortunately, we’re out of the playoffs, so that opens up some time.
RUSH OFFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #67 in rushing offense (162 yards/game) and #78 in rushing average (4.08 yards/carry) after a pretty meager week slamming into Michigan State’s front. Leading rusher Zach Charbonnet (589 yards, 11 TD) seems to be on a pitch count, while Hassan Haskins (439 yards, 3 TD) and Tru Wilson (216 yards, 1 TD) have stepped up in recent weeks. Indiana is #46 in rush defense (140 yards allowed/game) on 3.86 yards per carry, which is tied for #45 nationally. Sophomore middle linebacker Micah McFadden (6’2″, 232 lbs.) leads the team in tackles with 46, followed closely by weakside linebacker Reakwon Jones (6’2″, 233) with 43 tackles. Sophomore defensive tackle Demarcus Elliott (6’3″, 328) is a burgeoning star on the inside with 36 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #63 in pass offense (235.7 yards/game) and #56 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Shea Patterson has upped his completion percentage to 59.1% with 8.0 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Leading receiver Ronnie Bell put on a show last week with 9 catches for 150 yards and now paces the #2 guy, Nico Collins, by 12 catches and 137 yards. Collins continues to be a big body and major downfield threat, and Donovan Peoples-Jones seems to be underutilized. The Wolverines are #53 in sacks allowed with 1.8 per game. Indiana is #50 nationally with 2.3 sacks per game, led by senior defensive end Allen Stallings (6’2″, 246) with 5. The Hoosiers are #10 in pass defense (176.6 yards allowed/game) and #28 in passer efficiency rating defense. Last week Penn State’s Sean Clifford completed fewer than 50% of his passes for 179 yards. Freshman cornerback Tiawan Mullen (5’10”, 175) leads the team with 8 pass breakups, and three separate players are tied for the team lead with 1 interception each.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #17 in rush defense (106.8 yards allowed/game) and tied for #7 in yards allowed per carry (2.78). Michigan tried to be a four-man front early in the year, but a three-man front suits their personnel best, unless it’s on passing downs when they can bring in a bunch of pass rushers and line them up in various players on the defensive line. Viper linebacker Khaleke Hudson has made 82 tackles to lead the team, while junior weakside linebacker Jordan Glasgow has 71 and the two starting safeties have 53 each. Indiana is surprisingly #103 in rush offense (133.7 yards/game) and #99 in yards per carry (3.83). Starting running back Stevie Scott III (6’2″, 231) leads the team with 165 carries for 791 yards (4.8 YPC) and 9 touchdowns, and the other running backs barely see the ball. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey (6’2″, 216) is a decent scrambler but not much of a true runner (2.83 YPC, 3 TD). This isn’t a Greg Frey offensive line anymore – they’re pretty weak up front, despite everyone weighing in between 307 and 358 pounds. Indiana has been decent running the ball against Michigan with big backs in the past because the offensive line was good enough to unleash those backs on small-ish linebackers, but Scott is going to get bottled up before he hits the second level.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #4 in pass defense (154.8 yards allowed/game) and #13 in passer efficiency defense. Cornerbacks Lavert Hill and Ambry Thomas each have 3 interceptions, while Hill has 7 pass breakups. The Wolverines are tied for #16 in sacks (32), led by Uche with 7.5. When it comes down to obvious passing downs, Michigan should have a decent day. Indiana is #28 in sacks allowed (15), but 14 of those have come in conference play; Ohio State had 6 quarterback takedowns against them, and Penn State had 2. The Hoosiers lost starting quarterback Michael Penix, but Ramsey’s passer rating is virtually identical and his completion percentage is higher; Ramsey completes 72.7% of his passes for 8.4 yards/attempt, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Last week against PSU, he completed 31/41 passes for 371 yards, 1 TD, and 0 interceptions. While those numbers look good, I am not a believer in PSU’s defense. Junior slot receiver Whop Philyor (5’11”, 178) has 61 catches for 863 yards and 3 TD; the next five guys have between 21-36 catches, and four other guys have 3-4 touchdown catches. It’s a well balanced passing offense, including tight end Peyton Hendershot (6’4″, 255). They will challenge Michigan’s secondary depth, and the key will be how well Ramsey and the receivers adjust when it comes time to scramble.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Indiana players offered by Michigan include: DT Juan Harris, RB Sampson James, S Joshua Sanguinetti
- Indiana players from the State of Michigan include: WR David Ellis (Chippewa Valley), QB Will Jontz (Brighton), DT Christian Love (Detroit Country Day), OL Peter Schulz (Brother Rice),
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…
- On November 17, 2018, Michigan beat Indiana by a score of 31-20
- Jake Moody accounted for 19 points on 6/6 field goals and 1/1 extra points
- Eleven different Wolverines caught passes from Shea Patterson, who was 16/28 for 250 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, along with 68 rushing yards
- DT Michael Dwumfour made an interception
- Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey was 16/35 for 195 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT
- Indiana RB Stevie Scott ran 30 times for 139 yards and 1 TD
PREDICTIONS
- This is a situation where Michigan holds the edge in all phases, but the separation isn’t very large anywhere.
- Dylan McCaffrey gets some snaps in run packages
- Shea Patterson throws interception #5
- Zach Charbonnet scores 2 touchdowns
- Michigan 28, Indiana 17
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https://twitter.com/mattrheaphd/status/1196489743665631232?s=12
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David Ellis has some hops.
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All phases? OK, but Indiana’s home field & its ability to play Michigan tough makes this even…….
Then factoring in the unpredictability but inevitable turnovers, special teams play and whether or not Michigan starts slow as they have all season………..?
If this game were in AA, Michigan wins handily but on the road? And this game will have a usual dose of the unpredictability & inconsistent ref calls.
I think Michigan somehow pulls this out leaving Indiana with a bad taste in their mouth but the Wolverines will take the W.
As I See It……….INTJohn
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Also, if Indiana does win this game people will say its cause Michigan was looking ahead to OSU rather than giving the Hoosiers thier due……….
Jus sayin……….intjohn
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If this offense has actually turned some kind of corner, as the Mgobloggies are declaring, I would hope for somewhat more than 28 points. We put up 45 and 44 against ND and MSU, and they both have much better defenses than Indiana. And I doubt we hold them to 17.
As with our other games on the road against quality teams, a lot will depend on whether Harbaugh has the team ready mentally and scheme-wise right from the opening kickoff, or if they take a half before they start playing their best.
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Maybe JH will have them come off the bus with their helmets on 🙂
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I’m all for mocking the group-think of Mgoblog but this is a weird one. If you want to mock them/him I’d look at another direction — Giving up on the offense after a few weeks was wrong and Brian refuses to admit it.
Don’t be a ninny. Don’t give up on your team.
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Who’s giving up on them? I said that if this offense has really turned a corner, they should score more than 28 points against Indiana. I’m not convinced they’ve turned that corner yet. They’ve looked better at home, now it’s time for them to look strong on the road, if they’re really improving. It’s a fact that 8-5 is still a very real possibility for this season.
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I was talking about Mgoblog.
The observation that Michigan O has improved is backed by evidence and not unique to them.
Giving up on the team and the season (“BPONE”) was.
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I also didn’t say they haven’t improved. You still haven’t gotten the point.
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It is a fact that 8-5 is possible and so is 11-2 because our record is 8-2 with 3 games left and I can do math.
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And which is more likely?
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35-20 UM. If UM continues to attack edges they should not have a problem scoring. Do worry a bit about being on the road but I would not confuse Bloomington with Madison or Kinnick as particularly intimidating places to play. May be as many UM fans attending IU fans.
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OSU has totally dominated PSU but barely leads into the 4th qwarter thanx to 3 OSU to’s to PSU’s zero……..
TO’s folks. Turn the ball over at home or on the road against a good team and you’re making it very difficult to win. Michigan must start strong against Indy and not commit to’s…………intjohn
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PSU had a nice 50 yard drive going and just commited their first TO of the game inside OSU’s 20……….
Prolly will be what finishes them off at OSU……….
9 min left……….intjohn
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14 up looks like this game will be a dogfight………..
As anticipated……..intjohn
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Great to win, especially this big and on the road
But, why in the heck were so many starters in, so late?
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Damn great win! And shut them down in the 2nd haf while gettin the points to pull away………..
A few issues but hey its a major road win to set the scene for a potential positive successful season given how things started out. OSU lookt vulnerable at home against PSU so maybe just maybe if OSU makes some to’s Michigan can beat them.
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10/13 Bet Maid. “If Michigan beats OSU, PSU, OR ND you will not comment for 2 months afterwards”
10/26 Bet Lost. Michigan beats ND.
11/22. Loser welches on the bet. (not the first time or the last)
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