Rush Offense vs. Maryland Rush Defense
Michigan is now #46 in rushing with 202 yards/game, and their 4.84 yards/carry also rank 46th. The team’s leading rusher, De’Veon Smith, had a bit of a breakout game last week when he broke off a 60-yard run, finishing with 16 carries for 125 yards. He injured his right ankle in the second half, however, and did not return. Reports this week are saying he has been practicing, but if he does not play, the bulk of the carries will likely go to Ty Isaac (8.5 yards/carry) and Drake Johnson (5.2 yards/carry). Michigan’s offensive line has been pretty good over the past few weeks, with left tackle Mason Cole, center Graham Glasgow, and right guard Kyle Kalis all earning praise publicly. Maryland is #101 in giving up 200 yards/game, although their 4.31 yards allowed/carry is slightly better at #75 nationally. The leading tackler is 6’0″, 240 lb. middle linebacker Jermaine Carter, Jr., but the next three players on the list are all defensive backs. Carter also has 5 tackles for loss in the run game, so he’s a force in the middle. The Terrapins did well in the season opener against FCS team Richmond, but they have given up 201, 240, and 304 yards on the ground over the past three weeks. Michigan should have a solid performance with the way they’ve been playing lately.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
Pass Offense vs. Maryland Pass Defense
Both passing offenses might struggle – even more than usual – due to the weather, which is supposed to be wet and windy. Michigan is 96th in the country while throwing for 194 yards/game and they’re 91st in passer rating. Quarterback Jake Rudock had a rough start to the year, but we saw things out of him last week that we expected when he came from Iowa – smart decisions, a little bit of athleticism, missing some open receivers, and controlling the ball. Jay Harbaugh talked this week about how often the tight ends are targeted (8 times a game, according to him), which is more than anywhere else in the country: Jake Butt (15), Ian Bunting (4), A.J. Williams (3), Khalid Hill (2), and Henry Poggi (1) have all caught passes this year. Michigan’s most consistent target, though, is redshirt junior wide receiver Amara Darboh (20 catches, 242 yards, 1 touchdown), who is 6th in the conference in receptions and 10th in yardage. Up front, the Wolverines are tied for 14th in sacks allowed, having given up just 3 total this year (2 against BYU last week). The best thing Maryland has going for them is their pass rush, which is tied for #2 in the country with 17 sacks. The leading sacker is defensive end Yannick Ngakoue with 5.5, but defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson has 3, and ends Roman Braglio and Jesse Aniebonam have 2 each. Cornerback Will Likely is only 5’7″, 175 lbs., but he’s dangerous – he had 6 interceptions last year, and he has 5 pass breakups already this season. He also has scored 7 touchdowns on special teams and interception returns during his career. Even so, Maryland is #102 in passing yardage allowed (267 yards/game) and passer rating defense. If Michigan can run the ball to help neutralize the pass rush, then Rudock should be able to find some holes in the middle of Maryland’s coverage.
Advantage: Michigan
Rush Defense vs. Maryland Rush Offense
The Wolverines are tied for #10 in the country for giving up 82 yards/game on the ground, and the 2.56 yards/carry against them is also #10. Michigan has had several guys step up to help stop the run, but in particular, nose tackle Ryan Glasgow and defensive tackle Chris Wormley have been excellent. The top two tackles are inside linebackers Joe Bolden (26) and Desmond Morgan (21), but safety Jarrod Wilson (15) and nickel corner Jabrill Peppers (14) are also forces in stopping the run. Michigan ran a lot of 3-4 looks against a spread team in BYU last weekend, but we should see some more 4-3 looks this week against the Terps. Maryland has a decent run game and ranks #50 nationally (196 yards/game) with 5.85 yards/carry (#15 overall). They have a good 1-2-3 punch with starter Brandon Ross (358 yards, 6.1 yards/carry), Wes Brown (143 yards, 5.5 yards/carry), and Ty Johnson (133 yards, 5.5 yards/carry). The offensive line is mostly an experienced group with three redshirt seniors, a redshirt junior, and then a redshirt freshman right tackle in Damian Prince. None of them is very accomplished, but the left side should be decent. With a questionable passing offense, Michigan can probably afford to load up to stop the run, play press man on the outside, and clog up the running lanes. Michigan won’t shut down Maryland like they have the last couple opponents, but this will also be the most formidable rush defense that the Terps have faced.
Advantage: Michigan
Pass Defense vs. Maryland Pass Offense
Michigan is #5 in passing defense (122 yards allowed/game) and #9 in passer rating defense. That is because of some tight man coverage, some poor passing offenses faced so far, and an improved pass rush. Cornerback Jourdan Lewis (6 pass breakups) has been very good since earning a starting job last season, and the other defensive backs are large and physical. Michigan has shown a decent pass rush this season, but nobody has emerged as a consistent pass rusher. The leading sacker is backup nose tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr., but defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin puts together some quality blitz packages that free up lots of different players to pressure the quarterback. Defensive line coach Greg Mattison – who was the defensive coordinator/linebackers coach last year – has helped his unit improve from where it was last year. The Terrapins are slightly worse than Michigan in passing yardage with 193 yards/game (#97 overall), but they are #118 in passer rating. Maryland named Caleb Rowe the starting quarterback for this week, even though he has the worst passer rating of the three quarterbacks who have played this year. Rowe completes 50% of his passes for 6.0 yards/attempt and has 4 touchdowns with 9 interceptions – his interception totals have increased from 2 to 3 to 4 in the last three weeks, but head coach Randy Edsall apparently doesn’t want to give Daxx Garman or Perry Hills another chance. West Virginia’s defense held Maryland to 4.3 yards/attempt and picked off the Terps 5 times last week. One positive for Maryland is that they have only allowed 3 sacks this season (tied for #14 nationally), but their quarterbacks and receivers can’t get on the same page. No receivers have emerged as consistent threats, and aside from the game against South Florida, they have all lacked production. They are mostly small-ish and not particularly explosive.
Advantage: Michigan
Roster Notes
- Maryland players who were recruited by Michigan include: RB Wes Brown, FB Shane Cockerille, DE Melvin Keihn, DE Yannick Ngakoue, WR Will Ulmer
- The wide receivers coach for Maryland is Keenan McCardell, who played in the NFL from 1991-2007 and made the Pro Bowl twice
- Running backs coach Terry Richardson shares a name with a Michigan defensive back, and he played in the NFL for four seasons in the mid-’90s
- Head coach Randy Edsall is 1-1 against Michigan. He lost 30-10 while at UConn in 2010, and then he won 23-16 last year with Maryland.
Last Time They Played . . .
- Michigan is 3-1 all-time against Maryland, with the lone setback coming last season in a 23-16 loss.
- It was all field goals in the first half, with a 9-9 tie going into halftime. After the break, it was all touchdowns.
- Joe Kerridge ran a fake punt for 52 yards.
- Drake Johnson led Michigan with 94 yards rushing.
- Joe Bolden and Jake Ryan each made 14 tackles.
- Maryland’s C.J. Brown and Wes Brown scored rushing touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win the game.
Predictions
- Michigan makes 3 interceptions, and Daxx Garman makes an appearance in relief of Rowe
- Drake Johnson gains 100 total yards
- Jake Butt leads the team with 6 catches for 75 yards
- Michigan 31, Maryland 10
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Now this is more like it! 🙂
So, as a football savvy dude … as you’re watching the game and you expect a win (let’s stipulate that’s a foregone conclusion), then what sorts of things do you watch for to see evidence of further improvement?
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Quarterback play needs to improve. If it’s a wet and sloppy day, I don’t expect Rudock to take a lot of risks. But he should push the ball down the field a little bit more. I think he needs to develop chemistry with guys like Jehu Chesson if this offense is going to take off. We can’t go the entire year with our #2 wide receiver averaging 9 yards/catch where he only gets the ball on WR screens/quick hitches.
We also need improved RB play. Our starting RB just had a huge day, and he only improved his yards per carry to 4.8. I think there are a lot of cuts that Smith is missing, and he lacks the speed to bounce things outside. Whether it’s Johnson or Isaac, someone needs to be able to create plays on the edge. As far as I’m concerned, Derrick Green should not be sniffing the field in meaningful situations.
I also don’t love the inside linebackers. It’s the toughest position to play on defense, I think, but our guys just don’t have the football instincts to be great. I guess I’m speaking mostly of Joe Bolden, too. I don’t think that’s something that’s really going to get fixed, though. Those guys are seniors and they are what they are at this point.
I would like to see Ben Braden improve. I think he struggles when you line someone up directly over him; he’s better at pulling or washing guys down, but he struggles to drive block because of leverage. And it would be great if Graham Glasgow could go one game without taking a penalty.
Biggest of all, I think this team lacks the killer instinct on offense. Harbaugh took a shot downfield at the end of the first half and called some downfield passes in the second half, but Rudock didn’t try them, we couldn’t break a big one in the running game, and the skill guys aren’t big-play guys. Rudock and/or Isaac/Johnson needs to put the finishing touches on a game in the second half.
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” I think this team lacks the killer instinct on offense.”
I tend to agree. The offense strikes me as average, which given our defense is probably okay to win a lot of games. But not good enough to win championships.
I’m no football expert, but what nags me about this offense:
(a) No credible deep threat
(b) No credible edge speed
I’m hoping we can start seeing something like a deep threat. Maybe not a 60-yard strike, but 30+ yards? Something to keep defenses worried.
I liked the Chesson sweep from UNLV because it seemed to me a nice use of talent to fill in a gap. I guess Drake Johnson is our answer here, but until he’s a realistic threat we’re going to face teams cheating up.
Re: metrics … I really want to see better and better production on first down. I want to see our 3rd conversion rate increase while the number of 3rds we face diminish. And I’d like to see at least two completions for 30+ yards. Weather in Maryland may not favor the long passing game, but as the year progresses I’d like to see Rudock and his receivers create a fear in defenses that they *can* go over the top.
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The offense IS average. I’m not sure they’re going to take the next step to get much more beyond, say, 40th in the country. I mean, I suppose they could, but the whole scheme is contingent on the OL being dominant and that’s just not going to happen in year 1. Maybe next year…
I don’t think speed is the issue with Darboh or Chesson, it’s more about WR instincts and maybe being a little subpar in quickness/route running.
As long as Michigan keeps stretching the field horizontally they don’t NEED to stretch it vertically to make the run game effective IMO. Still, it’d be nice…
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I think Darboh was slow in the past, and now he is average or maybe slightly above average. He’s still not going to outrun anyone, but he has improved his acceleration since last year. If you look at any time he has been targeted downfield (including the one-handed catch last week), he really cannot get any separation.
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Agree on Darboh. But even Peppers says Chesson is probably the fastest guy on the team.
I guess I think there is more to separation than speed. That’s about route running, selling your fakes, etc. Speed is a big part of it, but far from the only part.
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I think the missed cuts thing is getting overstated. Smith’s YPC compares favorably with Mike Hart and many others. It’ll surely go down as Michigan faces more tough defenses, but it’s not like he’s racked up those numbers by playing App State.
Seems like Johnson and Isaac are doing a solid job running outside to me. Agree about Green, but he hasn’t had a meaningful carry since Johnson returned.
I like all the other thoughts Thunder had though.
I don’t think there is a lack of killer instinct in the offense or playcalling, I just think Rudock has missed a few of those throws. And we know Smith isn’t going to rattle off 60 yard runs every week, but that’s also not how this run offense is built.
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Rudock hasn’t even attempted some of those throws. I think he’s trying to play it safe, which is a part of lacking killer instinct.
I think Brian from MGoBlog really overstates missed cuts. However, I certainly think it’s an issue. It happens too often for Smith not to be questioned about his vision and ability to make those cuts.
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I’m not sure that Bryan is overstating the issue, the example he provided yesterday with a screenshot was pretty egregious. On his big run, Smith drove right into the pile and was blessed with the great, good fortune of having BYU’s DT flat out abandon his gap. At least once or twice a game, Smith will cause me to start mumbling to myself about bad decisions. Green makes me go nuts. I admit some likelihood that this being a weekly topic of conversation at multiple sites likely contributes to my sensitivity on the issue.
It does seem however that in certain instances, tunnel vision can be as much of an issue with RBs as it is for QBs.
On the positive side, I do like his attitude about falling down.
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Yeah – strongly agree with you about Brian and the cuts. Some of his expectations are just unreasonable and he often posts snapshots where the RB a)either had to already make a decision already before that or b)is going to run into opposing defenders by the time he makes it over to the gaping hole. Take a snapshot .75 seconds earlier and you can see why Smith (or some other back) did what he did.
I do agree though that Smith’s vision isn’t a strong suit. He has missed some cuts and he has admitted that.
I think every back does though. He may be worse than others, I can’t say, but I don’t think it’s a major problem for him.
I agree with the criticism, just not the frequency and forcefulness of it.
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They took a couple shots against Utah to chesson and they had the long passes to Butt and Darboh since.
I’d like to see more of it too.
I just don’t think it’s ever going to be a bit part of the offense. I think Rudock is a conservative guy and no one is going to change that with a 5th year senior with years of starting experience. It’s just who he is. It’s not quite like asking Jon Navarre to start effectively running read option, since he theoretically has the capability, but that’s not the read he is going to make all that often.
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vision is a huge problem for smith. obviously aside from ball security, id say the 2 most vital traits in tailbacks are vision and the acceleration / quickness to actually make most cuts one sees.
smith lacks vision but his lack of quickness / acceleration are bigger issues in my opinion. im guessing smith IDs some of the lanes / cutbacks / creases / opportunities to bounce it that many have criticized him for missing, he likely just realizes his best shot at additional yardage remains busting it upfield asap and churning out the YAC (even if hes running into defenders or his blockers backs).
he def misses his share of potential cuts due to poor vision / instincts / decisiveness but he does not have the quickness to actually take advantage of decent number of them – and i have to imagine hes aware of it and hes been coached up to get north and grind out the YAC whenever in doubt. i cant imagine coaches watch tape with smith and encourage him to attempt cuts hes not capable of, given honesty typically reigns supreme in film rooms. that said, he still misses too many significant cutback lanes / creases he likely has enough quickness to hit and he frequently cuts both off the wrong foot and cuts off wrong hip of his blocks
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Interesting predictions.
The 3 picks is a very bold one.
6 catches for 75 yards seems oddly specific.
That score feels about right. Maybe we’ll put up less, but I’m very interested in seeing how lights out our defense can play consistently. If we hold them to less than 150 yards and no touchdowns, Harbaugh is the truth and I’m jumping on the 10 wins bandwagon.
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I’d expect them to keep some clever plays targeting Butt in the shed so to speak. I expect that number against MSU though…
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Here are some YPC comparisons for Michigan RB over the years. (This is kind of a tangent and more related to previous debates, but interesting nonetheless.) The point: sometimes the better RB will have the better YPC…but very often, not.
20 years of Michigan RB YPC
1997: Chris Howard 4.8 YPC > Chris Williams> 4.6 > Anthony Thomas 4.1 YPC
1998: Walter Cross 4.1 YPC > Justin Fargas 3.6 YPC
2000: Walter Cross 5.8 YPC > Chris Perry 5.4 YPC > Justin Fargas 4.7 YPC
2001 and 2002: BJ Askew 4.4 and 5.2 YPC > Chirs Perry 4.1 and 4.2 YPC
2003: Jerome Jackson 6.4 YPC > David Underwood 5.2 YPC > Chirs Perry 5.0 YPC
2006: Jerome Jackson 7.6 YPC > Brandon Minor 5.7 YPC > Mike Hart 4.9 YPC
2007: Carlos Brown 5.1 YPC > Brandon Minor 4.3 YPC
2009: Mike Cox 8.7 YPC > Vincent Smith 5.8 YPC > Brandon Minor 5.2 YPC > Denard Robinson 5.1 YPC
2011: Vincent Smith 6.0 YPC > Fitz Toussaint 5.6 YPC > Denard Robinson 5.3 YPC
2012: Justice Hayes 4.6 YPC > Thomas Rawls 4.2 YPC > Fitz Toussaint 4.0 YPC
2013: DeVeon Smith 4.5 YPC > Fitz Toussaint 3.5 YPC
2014: Derrick Green 5.7 YPC > DeVeon Smith 4.8 YPC
2015: Ty Isaac 8.5 YPC > DeVeon Smith 4.8 YPC
Almost every single year you can draw a spurious conclusion.
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I took this info and posted it in the forum. I’m not sure if you can comment over there or not.
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Thanks. I think I can comment, just not create new forums.
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What happened to 2010? You got something against Denard? 😉
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yeah – the number of carries, the opponents, and the context of those carries, among other factors, seriously skew much of that data. reserve or 3rd down type backs typically post higher YPC than feature backs bc they (a) receive less total carries (b) gain chunk yardage on 3rd and long draw type runs (c) pick up carries and yardage vs weaker teams or in mop up duty, etc.
agreed re spurious conclusions
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I’ve never really put a lot of support behind a 3rd down back (Justice Hayes, Vincent Smith, etc.) to get more carries. Context is certainly important, which is why it’s a little frustrating when data like this is presented. Some of it isn’t really relevant to the discussion.
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