RUSH OFFENSE vs. PURDUE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #42 with just over 199 yards/game on the ground and #48 in rushing average (4.67). That’s the good news. There’s some bad news, though, and plenty of it. First is that starting running back Ty Isaac (112 yards/game, 7.1 yards/carry) left last week’s game with some sort of rib/abdominal injury, and while Jim Harbaugh says he should be fine and ready to go, a rib injury won’t just disappear in a week. Backups Chris Evans and Karan Higdon have combined for 228 yards on 56 carries, which is just barely over 4.0 yards/carry. The other bad news is that Michigan’s offensive line has struggled, particularly on the right side where sophomore Michael Onwenu and redshirt sophomore Nolan Ulizio reside. Purdue is #54 with just under 130 yards allowed per game and #80 in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.09). The Boilermakers’ leading tackler is middle linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (6’2″, 250 lbs.), followed by strong safety Jacob Jacob Thieneman (6’1″, 210) and weakside linebacker T.J. McCollum (6’3″, 235). Fifth year senior outside linebacker Danny Ezechukwu (6’2″, 242) leads the squad with 3 tackles for loss, and Bentley has 2. Michigan will probably mostly see a 3-4 defense, and the defensive linemen aren’t very good. If they can get a hat on Bentley, the Wolverines should be in decent shape.
Advantage: Michigan if Isaac plays; otherwise, Purdue
Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.
PASS OFFENSE vs. PURDUE PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are #84 in passing offense (203 yards/game) and #82 in passer efficiency rating. Those aren’t good numbers. On top of that, leading receiver Tarik Black (11 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD) broke a bone in his foot last week and had surgery, potentially ending his season. The only other guy with more than 5 catches is junior Grant Perry (10 receptions, 124 yards, 1 TD). The receiving situation is a huge unknown. Starting quarterback Wilton Speight has come under fire for his performance (54.5% completions, 571 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs), and rightfully so, but he’s not the only one to blame. The young receivers have been spotty, and Michigan is tied for #98 in sacks allowed with 8 so far. Purdue is tied for last in sacks (1 so far), and that came from Ezechukwu against Ohio. They have a hard time getting after the quarterback because they’re not very athletic up front. They’re #84 in passing defense (245 yards allowed per game) but #64 in passer rating allowed. Of the two interceptions recorded so far, one came from SAM linebacker Markus Bailey and the other came from backup corner Kamal Hardy. Fifth year senior cornerback Josh Okonye, a transfer from Wake Forest, is Purdue’s top cover guy.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. PURDUE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #9 in rushing defense (82.3 yards allowed/game) despite playing the #7 rushing offense (#3 in 2016) in Air Force. The Wolverines give up just 2.33 yards/carry, which is #7 nationally. Sophomore middle linebacker Devin Bush, Jr. leads the team with 26 tackles, and weakside linebacker Mike McCray II is second with 19. Bush leads the squad with 4.5 tackles for loss, and weakside end Chase Winovich is second with 4. Michigan has been running a 3-3 stack for much of the season with a less frequent look of a 4-3, and both fronts have been effective. Purdue is #65 in rushing (173 yards/game) and tied for #58 in yards per carry (4.51). Leading rush Tario Fuller, a 6’0″, 190 lb. sophomore, leads the team in rushing with 261 yards on 6.1 yards/carry. The quarterbacks aren’t much of a threat to run. The Boilermakers are better on the right side of the line, where they have experience and size in 6’8″, 310 lb. fifth year senior David Steinmetz. The left tackle is redshirt freshman Grant Hermanns, who is 6’7″, 295. They run a lot of zone blocking, but this is the best defensive line they’ll face this season.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. PURDUE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan stands at #12 in pass defense (125.7 yards allowed/game) and has allowed the #7 passer efficiency rating against them. Safety Tyree Kinnel, cornerback Lavert Hill, and Viper Khaleke Hudson each have 1 interception so far, and redshirt junior corner Brandon Watson leads the team with 3 pass breakups. The Wolverines are thin at cornerback, but the group has played well so far. Bush, Winovich, and Hudson have 9 sacks altogether, and Winovich is the most disruptive force on the defensive line in their three-man front. If Michigan goes to a four-man line, that opens up Maurice Hurst, Jr. to be a more disruptive force, but he has been doing a decent – if somewhat unproductive – job at nose tackle in the 3-3-5. Purdue is tied at #98 with 8 sacks allowed but they are still a respectable #35 in passing offense (286.7 yards/game) and #41 in passer efficiency rating. Junior quarterback David Blough has taken most of the snaps at quarterback, and he has completed 76.1% of his passes for 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Sophomore Elijah Sindelar is a worse decision maker with a stronger arm, but he has ceded most of those snaps to Blough and might be on his way to long-term backup status only. Junior tight end Cole Herdman (6’4″, 240) leads the team with 200 yards on just 7 catches, which is just under 29 yards/catch. Freshman Jackson Anthrop (5’11”, 185) is the primary target, though, with 17 catches and 4 touchdowns, albeit gaining under 10 yards/catch. If Michigan can get after the quarterback, they’ll be in good shape. Otherwise, I think Purdue can manufacture some open receivers.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Purdue players from the State of Michigan include: Holland TE Wade Buckman, Clarkston CB Tim Cason, West Bloomfield S Navon Mosley, West Bloomfield DT Eddy Wilson, and Dearborn OG Bearooz Yacoobi
- Former Purdue FB Mike Alstott’s son, Griffin Alstott, is a backup QB for the Boilermakers
- Former NFL fullback Lorenzo Neal’s son, Lorenzo, starts at nose tackle for Purdue
- Purdue defensive lineman Gelen Robinson is the son of former Purdue basketball player Glenn Robinson and the brother of former Michigan basketballer Glenn Robinson III
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…
- In October of 2012, Michigan beat Purdue by a score of 44-13
- Denard Robinson ran 24 times for 235 yards
- Raymon Taylor scored in a 63-yard interception return
- Devin Gardner caught a 23-yard TD pass from Robinson
PREDICTIONS
- Michigan sacks Blough 4 times
- Purdue takes the lead by halftime
- Wilton Speight throws 2 touchdowns in the second half
- Michigan 33, Purdue 17
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Michigan should win a close game if the offense stops shooting itself in the foot, otherwise this is a loss. It will be interesting to see how this team plays on the road.
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If Michigan plays no-stupid-mistakes football, then a win.
But fumbles in the redzone, unsportsmanlike penalties to kill drives, etc. … long afternoon.
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I feel like Michigan should win fairly handily if the offense reverts back to even a semblance of 2016’s version. If not, it will be close and actually nerve-inducing (to be honest, I had no nervousness or anxiety against Florida or Air Force; don’t know why).
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Don’t turn the ball over!
Site be a good game, as long as we don’t give away opportunities
MICHIGAN, by 10
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It looks like this is the first competent offense we face. We also have Don Brown.
2 weeks ago, I wasn’t worried for this game. The closer this gets to gameday, the further away my emotions oscillate from the norm between worried and confident. Right now I think it’s going to be a non-issue.
Game 1: 33 – 17
Offense (26 pts | – 14 pts)
2 TDs, 4 FGs: 26 points.
2 pick sixes: -14 points
Defense (7 pts | -3 pts)
1 TD: 7 points
1 FG allowed: -3 points
Game 2 36 – 14
Offense (20 pts | 0 pts)
2 TDs: 14 points
2 FGs: 6 points
2 sloppy fumbles, 1 lost
1 extra fumble lost
Defense (14 pts | -14 pts)
2 pick sixes: 14 points
2 TDs: -14 points
Game 3 29 – 13
Offense (22 pts | 0 pts)
1 TD late in the game: 7 pts
5 FGs: 15 pts
2 fumbles, 1 lost
Defense (0 pts | -13 pts)
1 sloppy TD: – 7 pts
2 FGs: – 6 pts
Special Teams (7 pts | 0 pts)
Punt return TD, 7 pts
The worry starts and ends with Speight. If he performs at his season average, our defense brings it home. Our offense has not put up more than 26 points this season, and not put up less than 20 points. That’s concerning to me. But I don’t think Purdue’s defense is going to stifle that. If the season keeps progressing how it has without much variance, the office can put up between 20-26 pts, and the defense will allow 3-14 pts. This does not account for turnovers or special teams.
If Don Brown’s defense lets up 21 pts or more in regulation, I would be surprised. That happened 3 times last year, 45 – 28 (Colorado, only 21 on defense, 7 was Speight) 32 – 23 (MSU) 32-33 (FSU). Colorado was early in the season and 3 TDs isn’t bad, MSU we were playing soft defense in the 4th already ahead by enough, FSU was a good team and we were without Jabrill.
I’m thinking U of M 38, Purdue 21 with 7 coming somewhere other than offense for Purdue, and Michigan putting up 10 late in the 4th.
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Here is what I think you said, which I agree with. This is one of those games the defense can win themselves without a lot of help from the offense.
The key variable is it’s on the road and Isaac isn’t 100%. UM can win with a regular performance of Speight, give or take 5% either way. This won’t be good enough at PSU but will be good enough at PU.
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TLDR;
If Speight doesn’t give up 2 pick sixes again, if he doesn’t fumble a handoff, and if our offense performs to it’s season average we should be fine. Don Brown is the truth.
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I’m in the same boat. No speight blunders, and nothing crazy like Evans first career fumble, or DPJ SpTms goof
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I see UM playing it close to the best. Ball control and move the chains. Evans and Higdon will play well with Isaac not at full strength. More interested in the performance of the OL than Speight. Team has to improve it’s OL and run game. TE’s catch 6-8 passes. Hill catches 2 passes.
UM 28
PU 10
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m scores 30+, wins by 20+
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m also turns it over at least once since that’s what usually happens for any team
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I thought I read somewhere we’re in the bottom 1/3 of D1 for turnovers?
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Some very good play calling by PU in the 1st half.
That UM line can’t sustain blocks for very long.
Overall I didn’t have a problem with the 1st half. UM is a good team but nothing to write home about. PU is well coached.
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We have better talent on paper at virtually every position on the field. We’ve been out-hustled, out-coached and out-played today.
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You bring up a good point. What I see is that PU has a better fluidity to their offense whereas UM just doesn’t seem to know what they want to do but I think UM looks better (surprisingly) with JOK who can utilize the whole field.
I think we would both agree that UM looks to have a band aid type of OL. UM has very good TE’s and a couple of decent rb’s but looks like it doesn’t run smoothly.
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Don’t forget WRs. Young, but almost NO separation
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LOL
Whiney, we just beat Purdue 21 – 0 and out gained Purdue 292 yards to 10 in the second half. That’s 292 yards of total offense to 10. We dominated the last half of the game. We won by 18 points and yet you tell us, “We’ve been out-hustled, out-coached and out-played today.”
Your bitter delusions are becoming more laughable by the week.
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I am going say something that makes me queasy. The 2nd half will come down to the OL & DL. Since UM can’t really move the ball it’s going to be close. Maybe a ST’s play will be needed for the good guys.
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Hope Speight and Eubanks are o.k.
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The staff has opened up the passing attack in the 2nd half. It looks like this OL needs a qb who can roll out.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed for the 4th qtr.
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The staff finally has a QB they can trust again! Worst performance of the year for the OL, but JOK carried the young team
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I don’t think it was that bad compared to previous games but these guys need someone at qb who can improvise a little. I saw Ulizio on one play and he loves to block people who are already being blocked. Lol.
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Purdue’s D was among the worst in the nation last year. They were dominating our OL until JOK started improvising
I wish speight good health, but there should be no controversy
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QB controversy? No. I mean an empahtic NO.
Program needs to ride JOK until further notice. I hope WS is okay. It hurt me to see him go out and not only do I not want to see a player get injured (cruel) but I didn’t want to see JOK.
This is a no brainer and I hope WS is healthy because the team needs a good backup qb.
Saw both Speight and Eubanks holding their wrists so hope it’s just a sprain.
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If PU punts…just run the ball and let this defense do the heavy lifting the rest of the way.
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Hey, Do I win a prize for picking the correct score?
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Let me ask a question. Not meant to be a mean question.
Does UM win this game with Speight? I think so but with a much closer score.
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Ugh, I don’t think so. Teams know our OL is a vulnerability, and come after us. Speight holds the ball so low and too long. It’s a recipe for disaster
I don’t know if JOK can keep it up, but this is the best I’ve felt about our QB since Rudock’s Bowl game
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I’ll add something to your comments. I think this decision on the qb is the MOST important decision of the Harbaugh era. Right now. Not hyperbole.
Here is why. The fans are going to rebel unless Speight plays well against MSU. I think coach Harbaugh could actually lose his team with a bad decision.
If you took a poll right now I bet you 98% of UM fans and even the beat reporters would tell you it’s time to give JOK a start. I am not going to say UM will win the next game or any game with JOK but it’s clearly time to sit Speight and give JOK a chance for a multitude of reasons. It’s not like Speight was playing relatively well. By any reasonable unbiased statistical analysis for the first 3 games, he wasn’t good enough. Maybe he will be and will come to the rescue of this team in a few weeks but I want to see JOK. Didn’t want to see him before the PU game but I have changed my mind after today’s game.
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No. In the time he was out there, Speight looked lost. O’Korn made a dozen throws that Speight could not have. None of our TD drives in the second half would have gone very far with Speight.
But I’m sure Lanknows will have some sophisticated stats to prove otherwise, or to show that Speight would have done as well by his tenth game as O’Korn did today.
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Somebody said something interesting. In 2 weeks everyone is going to know whether Harbaugh practices a meritocracy.
There are 3 reasons in my mind why JOK should start the game.
1. The UM offense has been struggling and clearly look much better with JOK.
2. JOK is an upperclassmen so it’s not like he doesn’t know the playbook.
3. The fans will be behind JOK whereas if Speight starts then there will be a lot of tension in the stadium.
Harbaugh knows what needs to be done. Not advocating JOK as the starting qb for the rest of the season. He still needs to show consistency but I don’t think there is any doubt, even with LK, that JOK should start against MSU.
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