Preview: Michigan vs. Central Florida

RUSH OFFENSE vs. UCF RUSH DEFENSE

After one week, Michigan is #14 in the country with 306 rushing yards/game. The biggest chunk of that yardage came from freshman third-stringer Chris Evans, who had 112 yards on just 8 carries. Primary backup Ty Isaac had 9 carries for 52 yards. The starter hasn’t been mentioned yet, because De’Veon Smith had a ho-hum day (6 carries, 27 yards) before leaving with a rib injury. Those three players represent speed (Evans), power (Smith), and a nice mix of the two (Isaac). Fifth year senior Drake Johnson did not play, and sophomore Karan Higdon provides depth. Up front, Michigan has a mix of experience and talent. Fifth year senior left guard Ben Braden missed the Hawaii game but should come back this week, but even if he doesn’t, redshirt junior Pat Kugler filled in fairly well for him last week. Jim Harbaugh said fifth year senior right tackle Erik Magnuson graded out the best. Elsewhere, Michigan has mammoth sophomore left tackle Grant Newsome, junior Mason Cole at center, and fifth year senior Kyle Kalis at right guard. Central Florida is #32 in rushing yards allowed (85.0) and #38 in rushing average against (2.66), though those numbers came against FCS team South Dakota State. UCF employs a 3-4 defense. The top seven tacklers last week were linebackers, and the next three were defensive backs. You have to go all the way down to 11th before finding a defensive lineman. Leading tackler Mark Rucker, a fifth year senior inside linebacker, is 5’9″, 217 lbs. Freshman starting defensive end Trysten Hill (6’1″, 295 lbs.), nose tackle Jamiyus Pittman (6’0″, 295 lbs.), and defensive end Tony Guerad (6’3″, 275 lbs.) make up the starting line. One guy to watch is redshirt junior outside linebacker Shaquern Griffin (6’1″, 213 lbs.). The biggest linebacker is 230 lbs. and the biggest lineman in the rotation is 295, so it’s not a very big front seven. Michigan should be able to run the ball with some regularity.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more on Michigan vs. Central Florida.

PASS OFFENSE vs. UCF PASS DEFENSE

Michigan is #75 in passing yardage (206 yards) after one week, but they didn’t need to pass to win their game. Starting quarterback Wilton Speight began the game with an ill-advised interception, but he went 10/13 for 145 yards, 3 touchdowns, and the 1 pick. Despite that interception, Michigan ends up with the #11 team passer rating, partly because backups John O’Korn and Shane Morris came in to go a combined 7/7 in mop-up duty against Hawaii. None of the receivers had big games, but the two biggest threats are 6’3″ speedster Jehu Chesson on the outside and 6’6″, 250 lb. All-American tight end Jake Butt. The Wolverines didn’t allow any sacks last week, and the quarterbacks were only hurried a couple times. UCF finished last week at #13 in passer rating defense after South Carolina State went 16/38 for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Outside linebacker Shaquem Griffin made the only sack, and twin brother Shaquil Griffin (a 6’1″, 200 lb. cornerback) made the only interception, along with a pass breakup.
Advantage: Michigan

RUSH DEFENSE vs. UCF RUSH OFFENSE

The Wolverines were worse than I thought they would be against the run last week, giving up 81 yards to Hawaii. That’s good enough for #28 in the country, but it’s not great. Part of that was due to the backups who were in for much of the game, but defensive coordinator Don Brown is adamant that he will not let teams run the ball against him. Michigan’s cause has been damaged yet again by injuries on the defensive line, including to nose tackle Bryan Mone and defensive end Taco Charlton, both of whom will probably miss this week’s game. Last week the team’s top three tacklers were linebackers Mike McCray (9), Jabrill Peppers (8), and Ben Gedeon (7); those three also led the squad in tackles for loss with 3.5, 2.0, and 2.5, respectively. The defensive linemen didn’t make a ton of plays, but they did occupy blockers so the linebackers could. One positive is that defensive tackle Maurice Hurst, Jr. might return after missing the opener due to injury. Meanwhile, UCF ran for 197 yards (#53 nationally) at 3.58 yards per carry (#88). That’s not great production for a team that wants to spread the field to run the ball. Freshman running back Jawon Hamilton (5’9″, 190 lbs.) ran 14 times for 53 yards, and starting quarterback Justin Holman, a senior, has pretty good speed to run the spread option offense. The offensive line isn’t particularly imposing, though right guard Chavis Dickey is 6’4″, 330 lbs. The Golden Knights run Oregon’s up-tempo offense, which can wear out a defense but can also lead to some busts when the offense gets going too quickly for even the linemen to keep up with. Michigan has the talent at linebacker and safety to defend the spread, and they should be solid enough on the defensive line. It will be interesting to see who spells Chase Winovich at weakside end, perhaps the thinnest position on Michigan’s defense.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. UCF PASS OFFENSE

For the most part, Michigan did a great job against the pass in the Hawaii game last week. Cornerback Channing Stribling and safety Delano Hill each returned an interception for a touchdown, and the only real success the Rainbow Warriors had was when they went five-wide late in the first half, picking on McCray in space and then Stribling in man coverage. While that could be a weakness for Michigan if All-America cornerback Jourdan Lewis misses a second consecutive game, it’s not UCF’s strength to throw the ball all over the field. Michigan still doesn’t have an elite pass rusher, but their linebackers combined for 4 sacks last week. Don Brown blitz and blitz and blitz some more, at least until the game is in hand. Holman went 14/28 for 193 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions last week. His favorite target is 6’1″, 200 lb. Tre’Quan Smith, who caught 52 passes for 724 yards and 4 touchdowns as a freshman in 2015. UCF did allow 3 sacks against an overmatched FCS team, so it will be disappointing if Brown’s blitz packages can’t get home at least a few times. If Lewis is available to play cornerback, I would expect him to follow Tre’Quan Smith around the field, and the other defensive backs should be able to handle the remainder of the unimposing group of receivers.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• The only UCF player offered by Michigan was CB Rashard Causey (So.)
• Backup QB Nick Patti’s name might sound familiar. He played at Orlando (FL) Dr. Phillips back when Michigan had their claws on a few players from there (Demetrius Hart, Ricardo Miller, etc.).
• Head coach Scott Frost was Nebraska’s quarterback back in the days when the Cornhuskers were battling Michigan for the national championship in the 1997-98 season.
• Offensive coordinator Troy Walters won the Biletnikoff Award as a wideout at Stanford (pre-Jim Harbaugh) before going on to play for the Vikings, Colts, Cardinals, and Lions.
• Backup QB Pete DiNovo was the QB for Mason Cole and former Michigan commit George Campbell’s team at East Lake (MI) East Lake.
• Another backup QB, Garrett Kruczek, is the son of former Boston College and NFL quarterback Mike Kruczek.
• Yet another notable father/son duo: walk-on LB Randy Shannon, Jr. is the son of former Miami head coach Randy Shannon

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• This will be the first time Michigan has played Central Florida

PREDICTIONS

• Michigan runs the ball with great success against UCF’s 3-4, finishing with 250 yards on the ground.
• Wilton Speight throws 2 touchdowns and 1 interception
• If Jourdan Lewis plays, the pass defense looks elite. If he doesn’t, we start to wonder if Michigan can hold up on the back end.
• Michigan 41, Central Florida 10

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