Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

RUSH OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #39 in rushing offense (191.3 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.06). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the #1 back for the offense (589 yards, 6.5 yards/carry, 6 TD) because of his ability to break tackles and move the chains, but he and Donovan Edwards (353 yards, 4.8 yards/carry, 3 TD) split carries in the last game with 14 each. There may be a shakeup on the offensive line: injured LT Myles Hinton is expected to return, which could allow fill-in tackle Jeff Persi to get a shot at right tackle; and it sounds like Greg Crippen will get a start at center over Dominick Giudice. Defensively, Illinois is #77 against the run (149.2 yards allowed/game) and #96 in yards allowed per carry (4.54). The last two opponents, Penn State and Purdue, have both run for 239 yards. The leading tackler is redshirt sophomore safety Matthew Bailey (6’2″, 215) with 38 stops; following him are redshirt junior MLB Dylan Rosiek (6’1″, 235) with 35 and redshirt junior free safety Miles Scott (5’11”, 210) with 33. The Illini don’t have a ton of size up front – their biggest regulars are two 305 pound nose tackles – but they do have a 6’3″, 275-pounder at OLB in Gabe Jacas who leads the team with 5 tackles for loss. Michigan should have an advantage when running the ball, especially if Crippen and/or Persi can be improvements over Giudice and redshirt freshman RT Evan Link.
Advantage: Michigan

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PASS OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS DEFENSE
Michigan’s passing offense has been abysmal. They’re #132 in passing yardage per game (115.0 yards/game), ahead of two service academies only. They’re #133 in yards per attempt (5.2), ahead of only New Mexico State. And they’re #130 in passing efficiency. There is maybe a little glimmer of hope since seventh-year QB Jack Tuttle took over on the fourth drive of the last game, but he has his limitations. He also hit Amorion Walker on a dig route, and perhaps the 6’3″, 182 lb. speedster can become a little bit of a deep threat in the second half of the year. Pass protection has been highly questionable, especially with Link at right tackle, but maybe Persi can help if he gets inserted at right tackle. Illinois is #44 in pass defense (197.3 yards allowed/game), #53 in yards allowed per attempt (6.8), and #52 in pass efficiency defense. Those numbers were largely boosted against the weak first three opponents, but in the past three games, they have allowed over 68% completions in each week with a total of 6 touchdowns allowed and just 1 interception. Junior nickel Xavier Scott (5’11”, 190) is the top graded cover guy, but he might be able to be schemed off the field if Michigan uses two or more tight ends regularly; he leads the team with 3 picks, including 2 against Kansas, 1 of which he returned for a touchdown. Redshirt junior transfer CB Torrie Cox, Jr. (5’9″, 170) and FS Miles Scott both have 2 interceptions, too. The Illini are tied for 36th in sacks per game (2.33), led by Jacas with 3 quarterback takedowns.
Advantage: Illinois

RUSH DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH OFFENSE
For all the talk about Michigan’s drop-off in all three phases of the game, the Wolverines are still ranked #3 in rushing defense (76.3 yards allowed/game) and #8 in yards allowed per carry (2.86). Washington’s Jonah Coleman managed 80 yards on just 9 carries, but for the most part, opponents have struggled. Defensive tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham clog things up in the middle, and MLB Ernest Hausmann (40 tackles, 2.5 TFLs) has improved throughout the season so far. WLB Jaishawn Barham (30 tackles) and S Makari Paige (25) are the other leading tacklers. The Illini brought in a couple decent tackles from the transfer portal, but the interior players have struggled. Senior RG Zy Crisler (6’6″, 235) and redshirt junior C Josh Kreutz (6’2″, 294) are the worst and second-worst run blockers on the offensive line, respectively, and Crisler was replaced by sophomore Brandon Henderson (6’5″, 335) last game. Illinois is #87 in rushing offense (139.5 yards/game) and #88 in yards per carry (3.89). Freshman 6’3″, 250 lb. RB Kaden Feagin (306 yards, 3 TD) will be out with an injury, so it will mostly be redshirt junior Josh McCray (6’1″, 235) and redshirt sophomore Aidan Laughery (5’11”, 200), who have combined for 68 carries, 326 yards, and 3 touchdowns (all scored by McCray). The player most likely to make a difference with his legs is redshirt junior QB Luke Altmyer (6’2″, 205), who has over 200 yards (not counting sacks) this year with 1 touchdown.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #111 in pass defense (259.8 yards allowed/game) but a respectable #34 in yards allowed per attempt (6.4) and #63 in pass efficiency defense. The injury bug has hit the defensive backfield over the past couple weeks, with Will Johnson, Ja’Den McBurrows, Aamir Hall, and Paige all missing time, not to mention Michigan State transfer Jaden Mangham, who has missed most of the year. Furthermore, #2 CB Jyaire Hill struggled mightily against Washington after seemingly taking some forward steps over the previous couple weeks. The good news is that edge rushers Josaiah Stewart (5.0 sacks) and Derrick Moore (0.5 sacks) should both be healthy this week. Altmyer has had a good year with 67.7% completions, 8.7 yards/attempt, 14 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. His top target is 6’3″, 200 lb. WR Pat Bryant (27 catches, 452 yards, 7 TD), who has two 100+ yard games and three multi-score games. But Altmyer also has a good #2 wideout in fifth year senior Zakhari Franklin (6’1″, 190), a UTSA transfer with 28 catches for 346 yards and 1 TD. The offensive line is a little better at pass blocking, with redshirt junior LG Josh Gesky (6’5″, 325) and Henderson being the biggest weak spots. Despite Altmyer’s decent running ability, Illinois is #122 in sacks allowed per game at 3.17, and Penn State made 7 total sacks against them in their last game. Overall, Illinois is #58 in pass offense (242.5 yards/game) and #15 in passing efficiency. The numbers favor the Illini, but if Stewart, Moore, Barham, Graham, and/or others can get after Altmyer, that can be a pretty huge swing.
Advantage: Illinois

ROSTER NOTES

• Illinois players recruited by Michigan include: CB Terrance Brooks, WR Malik Elzy, DT Eddie Tuerk
• Illinois players from the state of Michigan include: LB Mason Muragin (Warren De La Salle), DT Jeremiah Warren (Belleville)
• Illinois LB James Kreutz and C Josh Kreutz are the sons of former Washington Huskies and Chicago Bears C Olin Kreutz
• Former Michigan commit and Illinois LB Dele Harding is now an assistant RB coach for Illinois
• Illinois assistant QB coach Artur Sitkowski was recruited by Michigan before playing for Rutgers and Illinois
• Illinois Director of Football S&C Tank Wright was an associate S&C coach at Michigan in 2018-2019

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• On November 19, 2022, undefeated Michigan escaped with a narrow 19-17 win over the Illini
• K Jake Moody kicked the game-winning field goal when the Wolverines were down 17-16
• RB Blake Corum suffered a season-ending meniscus tear after rushing 18 times for 108 yards and 1 score
• QB J.J. McCarthy threw a key 4th down conversion to walk-on RB Isaiah Gash on the game-winning drive; Gash finished with 3 rushes for 6 yards and 3 catches for 24 yards

PREDICTION

• Michigan 24, Illinois 20

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