RUSH OFFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #62 in rushing offense (165 yards/game) and #62 in yards per carry (4.59). Hooray for consistency! Unfortunately, the Wolverines have not topped 4.0 yards per carry in any of the last three games. Last week they managed just 105 yards on 28 carries against Oregon, and that’s with quarterback Davis Warren not taking any sacks. The Ducks had Michigan’s running game downloaded last week and the Wolverines got just 16 yards from Kalel Mullings and 52 yards from Donovan Edwards, as Michigan started the game by trying to run laterally without much success. Both RT Andrew Gentry (lost for the season against Michigan State) and backup OT Jeffrey Persi (left last week’s game due to a leg injury) are presumably out, meaning Michigan had to revert to struggling redshirt freshman RT Evan Link. Indiana is #1 in the country in rush defense (72.6 yards/game) and #2 in yards allowed per carry (2.52). They shut down Michigan State’s rushing offense completely last week, holding the Spartans to -36 rushing yards on 32 overall attempts. Junior JMU transfer Aiden Fisher (6’1″, 233) leads the team with 84 tackles from his linebacker position, and senior JMU transfer Jailin Walker (6’1″, 218) is second with 52. They’re #11 in tackles for loss per game (7.67). Michigan’s run game has been struggling for the past couple weeks, so unless they figure out how to use RPOs with Davis Warren, I think it’s going to be tough sledding.
Advantage: Indiana
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PASS OFFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are #128 in passing offense (134.3 yards/game) and #131 in yards per attempt (5.8). They have topped 200 yards through the air just twice this season; Warren played a solid game last week, but he finished just 13/23 for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns. In four full games Warren has started with a healthy Colston Loveland, Loveland is averaging 7.3 catches, 84 yards, and 0.75 touchdowns. No other receivers do much of anything, and Edwards – a plus receiver out of the backfield – is severely underused. Michigan is tied for #50 in sacks allowed per game (1.56), a number that looks better than it is, considering how little Michigan drops back to pass; they’re #113 in pass attempts. Indiana is #27 in passing defense (188.4 yards allowed/game) and #10 in yards allowed per attempt (5.9). They have allowed just 8 touchdowns while making 11 interceptions, and they’re #20 in passing efficiency. Teams are actually completing 62.2% of their passes against the Hoosiers, which is a lowly #84 in the country, but the overall numbers suggest the completions are checkdowns that get stopped before they can do much damage. Sophomore Rover Amare Ferrell (6’2″, 200) leads the team with 4 interceptions, and the Hoosiers have returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns this season. The team is #7 in sacks per game (3.44), led by senior JMU transfer Mikail Kamara (6’1″, 265) with 9.5 sacks. Michigan can’t pass the ball, anyway, so it’s probably unrealistic to expect them to be able to do much against a solid pass defense.
Advantage: Indiana
RUSH DEFENSE vs. INDIANA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #23 in rushing defense (109.3 yards allowed/game) and tied for #25 in yards allowed per carry (3.55). The last three opponents have reached at least 163 yards on the ground and 3.88 yards per attempt. Oregon last week managed to score 4 rushing touchdowns, the most anyone has scored since the infamous performance by Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker in 2021. Inside linebackers Ernest Hausmann (66) and Jaishawn Barham (53) lead the squad in tackles. Michigan averages 5.89 tackles for loss per game, which is #59 nationally. Indiana is #30 in rushing offense (191.9 yards/game) and #41 in yards per carry (4.92). They have scored 32 rushing touchdowns this season, which is second only to Army’s 33. Fifth year senior RB Justice Ellison (5’9″, 210) is #8 in the Big Ten in rushing yards (669) and #7 in yards per carry (6.03). And backup Ty Son Lawton (5’9″, 208) is no slouch, either, with 453 yards, a 4.83 yards/carry average, and 9 rushing scores. The offensive line averages about 314 pounds and they’re coached by former Wisconsin and NFL offensive line coach Bob Bostad (side note: Bostad made an odd move from 2017-2021 when he coached inside linebackers at Wisconsin, which is strange for a former NFL OL coach). I think this will be a challenge for Indiana’s offensive line, but the last couple teams – including MSU – have found a way to run the ball, and both Ellison and Lawton have a little bit of juice, perhaps more than MSU’s duo. This might be a frustrating day for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Indiana
PASS DEFENSE vs. INDIANA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #95 in passing defense (235.8 yards allowed/game) and #45 in yards allowed per attempt (6.7). They’re #62 in passing efficiency defense. After missing #2 cornerback Jyaire Hill last week, they should be a little closer to full strength this week with Hill likely coming back; the status of All-American cornerback Will Johnson is a little murkier, as he’s missed the past couple games with turf toe. If #3 corner Aamir Hall is forced into the role of a #1 guy again, things could get frustrating once again. On the plus side, Michigan has the #3 sack guy in the Big Ten (Josaiah Stewart with 6.5). On the other side, Indiana is #19 in passing offense (284.3 yards/game) and #3 in yards per attempt (10.2). Sixth year senior JMU transfer QB Kurtis Rourke (6’5″, 223) completes 73.3% of his throws for 10.5 yards/attempt, 19 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. His 275.5 passing yards/game is ahead of the pace of star Indiana (and Washington) quarterback Michael Penix from 2020, when Penix put up 274.4 yards/game and wowed the country as he threw the ball around the yard to Ty Frofogle and Whop Philyor. Junior wideout Elijah Sarratt (6’2″, 209) leads the team with 37 catches for 649 yards and 5 touchdowns, but five receivers have 21+ receptions, and tight end Zach Horton (6’4″, 252) has 16 catches. Sophomore wideout Omar Cooper, Jr. (6’0″, 201) is a big-play guy averaging 22.6 yards/catch on 21 receptions. Rourke gets rid of the ball quickly, and the Hoosiers are #6 nationally in giving up just 0.78 sacks per game. Michigan has more talent on defense than Indiana has seen, but Rourke seems to know where to go with the ball, and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (not that Mike Shanahan) seems to know what answers to provide to Rourke.
Advantage: Indiana
ROSTER NOTES
- Indiana players recruited by Michigan: QB Tayven Jackson, S Josh Sanguinetti, OL Trey Wedig
- Indiana players from the state of Michigan include: TE Brody Kosin (Clarkston)
PREDICTION
- Indiana 30, Michigan 20
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