Preview: Michigan vs. Minnesota

RUSH OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is now #31 in rushing offense (205 yards/game) and tied for #33 in yards per carry (5.57) with UNLV. The breakout star of this year’s team has been RB Kalel Mullings, who had 17 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns against USC last week, including a 53-yard touchdown, a 63-yard run to set up the winning score, and the game-winning 2-yard score on 4th down. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that the all-new offensive line has struggled. Michigan received just a 57.5 run blocking grade against the Trojans. There has been some platooning going on at center between Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen, but the personnel at the other spots has been steady. RB Donovan Edwards broke out with a 41-yard touchdown last week, and new starting QB Alex Orji ran 13 times for 43 yards and averages 4.4 yards/carry for the year. Defensively, Minnesota is #56 in rushing defense (123.5 yrds allowed/game) and #62 in yards allowed per carry (3.81). Last week Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson ran 21 times for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns, and North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton put up 129 yards in week one, albeit on 30 carries for a so-so 4.3 yards/carry clip. Redshirt sophomore MLB Maverick Baranowski (6’2″, 230) leads the team with 27 tackles, followed closely by fifth year senior WLB Cody Lindenberg (6’3″, 240) with 26 stops. Baranowski and fifth year senior nickel Jack Henderson (6’2″, 215) lead the team with 2.5 tackles for loss each, chased by fifth year senior OLB Danny Striggow (6’5″, 255) with 2.0 TFLs. The middle of the line features fifth year senior DT Jalen Logan-Redding (6’4″, 290) and redshirt junior NT Deven Eastern (6’6″, 310); Eastern has only graded out on PFF higher than 57.0 when he played against FCS Rhode Island, while Logan-Redding has a couple grades in the 70s balanced with sub-60 scores against the two Power 4 opponents.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA PASS DEFENSE
What pass offense? Michigan is #129 nationally with just 123 yards/game and things were even worse last week when Orji completed just 7/12 passes for 32 yards. On the plus side, he didn’t throw any interceptions after Davis Warren threw 6 in the first three games, but there isn’t much to the passing game at this point. Tight end Colston Loveland was off to a pretty good start with 19 catches for 187 yards and 1 touchdown in the first three games, but he was injured against Arkansas State and did not play last week. His return is uncertain. Wide receiver Semaj Morgan has 12 catches for a paltry 62 yards, because Michigan only really throws screens to him, but the defenses won’t back off to give him space because they don’t respect the passing game. Also, Michigan’s offensive line has been terrible in pass protection, especially at right tackle, where redshirt freshman Evan Link has scored a 0.0 in pass protection against both Texas and USC. Minnesota is a surprising #2 in pass defense (99.5 yards allowed/game) and they’re tied at #4 in yards allowed per attempt (4.2). They have yet to allow a passing touchdown and have made 7 interceptions. Six different players have made at least one pick, led by redshirt freshman safety Kerry Brown (5’10”, 190) with 2. Henderson returned an interception 25 yards for a touchdown against Rhode Island. Brown, Henderson, and senior CB Bucknell transfer CB Ethan Robinson (6’0″, 190) are the three highest graded defenders to PFF. The Gophers are tied for #48 in sacks (8.0), led by Striggow and Henderson with 1.5 each.
Advantage: Minnesota

RUSH DEFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan has been doing a pretty solid job against the run. They’re #11 in yards allowed per game (76.5) and #26 in yards allowed per carry (3.06). Other than a 65-yard run by USC’s Woody Marks last week, the vast majority of runs have been tamped down after short gains. Weakside LB Ernest Hausmann and MLB Jaishawn Barham lead the team with 19 and 18 tackles, respectively. Barham has not played up to my expectations after getting such rave reviews in the off-season, but he has star defensive tackles Mason Graham (15 tackles) and Kenneth Grant (5 tackles) in front of him. Michigan needs to try to keep those DTs fresh so they can still be ready in the third and fourth quarters. Minnesota’s top two runners happen to be guys Michigan tried to recruit in sophomore Darius Taylor (6’0″, 215) and Oklahoma transfer Marcus Major (6’0″, 220). Taylor has 35 carries for 222 yards (6.3 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns, while Major has 40 carries for 162 yards (4.0 yards/carry) and 2 scores. Overall, though, Minnesota is #108 in yards per game (117.3) and #99 in yards per carry (3.78). They have managed just 79 yards in each outing against Power 4 teams, including just 2.39 yards per carry against North Carolina, which just got roasted 70-50 by JMU. The offensive line is large, averaging just over 6’6″ and 319 pounds. They also have two sixth-year seniors and one fifth-year guy. But they’re not very good. Michigan should be able to handle the offensive line pretty well, so it will be a matter of tackling Taylor and Major if they get any open space.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. MINNESOTA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #101 in pass defense (246.5 yards allowed/game) but #31 in yards allowed per attempt (5.9). They’re also #57 in passing efficiency defense. Those numbers are all over the place. Basically, they’ve been all over the place after Texas’s Quinn Ewers and his OL/WR had their way. Texas didn’t throw at CB Will Johnson at all, which was probably a good decision, considering Johnson now has two pick-sixes this season and is Michigan’s all-time leader in that category. Redshirt freshman CB Jyaire Hill played his best game last week, while senior safety Makari Paige got lost a few times. Michigan OLB Josaiah Stewart won some weekly awards last week after making 5 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks against USC, and both Graham and Grant terrorized USC QB Miller Moss last week. Minnesota is #82 in passing offense (217.8 yards/game) and #75 in yards per attempt (7.3). They’re #64 in passing efficiency. Sixth year senior New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer (6’2″, 225) is completing 65.8% of his passes for 7.3 yards/attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. His favorite target is fifth year WR Daniel Jackson (6’0″, 195), who has 21 catches for 268 yards and 0 touchdowns. Senior WR Elijah Spencer (6’2″, 200) has 12 receptions for 153 yards and 1 score. Jackson is a good receiver, but the movement of RT Quinn Carroll (6’7″, 315) is downright gross, and RG Ashton Beers (6’6″, 320) isn’t much better. Stewart and DE Derrick Moore should have a good day coming off Minnesota’s right side. The bright spot on the offensive line for Minnesota is fifth year senior LT Aireontae Ersery (6’5″, 330), who has good feet and scored a 78.1 against Iowa last week, according to PFF, including an 89.4 in pass blocking. If I’m Michigan, I’m putting Stewart over Carroll most of the game and letting Will Johnson follow around Daniel Jackson.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Minnesota players offered by Michigan include: OT Quinn Carroll, WR Cristian Driver, DL Adam Kissayi, RB Marcus Major, S Koi Perich, DL Hayden Schwartz, RB Darius Taylor
• Minnesota players from the state of Michigan include: RB Jaren Mangham (Cass Tech), RB Darius Taylor (Walled Lake Western)
• Minnesota WR Cristian Driver is the son of former NFL WR Donald Driver

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• On October 7, 2023, Michigan beat Minnesota by a score of 52-10
• Michigan defensive backs Will Johnson and Keon Sabb each scored pick-sixes
• Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis (now at Rutgers) completed just 5/15 passes for 52 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs
• Michigan defensive linemen Josaiah Stewart and Mason Graham combined for 9 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks
• Michigan RB Kalel Mullings ran 8 times for 59 yards, and Donovan Edwards ran 4 times for 20 yards

PREDICTION

• Michigan 38, Minnesota 13

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