Preview: Michigan vs. Northwestern

I have yet to see a good looking Northwestern girl, so here’s a picture of Chrissy Teigen in a purple bikini.

Rush Offense vs. Northwestern Rush Defense
Michigan is #35 nationally with 201 yards/game on the ground, and the 4.86 yards/carry is tied for 40th. Those numbers are bolstered by a few big plays, including two long touchdowns by wide receiver Jehu Chesson on fly sweeps. The standard running game is not quite so productive. Starting running back De’Veon Smith, who missed last week’s game after suffering an ankle injury against BYU, should return for Northwestern. He has 331 yards and 4 touchdowns on 4.8 yards/carry. Redshirt junior Drake Johnson has moved into the backup role, and he has averaged more than 5.1 yards/carry for the past three weeks. Starting fullback Joe Kerridge has missed the past couple games with a leg injury, too, and while he’s the superior blocker at the position, backup Sione Houma is averaging 5.2 yards/carry on 10 attempts. Michigan’s offensive line is largely intact, although left guard Ben Braden was knocked out of last week’s game. Northwestern is #26 against the run while giving up 117 yards/game, and they’re #44 with 3.72 yards against/carry. In their 4-3 defense, middle linebacker Anthony Walker leads the team with 44 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss; he is quick and diagnoses plays well. Strongside defensive end Dean Lowry is 6’6″, 290 lbs. and will be tough to handle for Michigan’s offensive tackles. The entire team tackles well, and the safeties are willing to step up and help in the running game. It will be tough sledding for Michigan’s offense, because the Wolverines lack the speed to stretch the field and make these defenders play in space.
Advantage: Northwestern

Hit the jump for the rest of the preview.

Pass Offense vs. Northwestern Pass Defense
The Wolverines are #96 in the country with 191 yards/game through the air, and they are #101 in passer rating. Quarterback Jake Rudock has had a somewhat rough go of it, throwing for 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Last week he threw a freshman-like interception where he was rolling right and tried to fit a ball in over the middle, which ended up being caught by a defensive tackle. Eighteen different receivers have caught the ball, led by wide receiver Amara Darboh (23 catches, 269 yards, 2 touchdowns) and tight end Jake Butt (19 catches, 234 yards, 1 touchdown). Darboh is a possession guy, and Butt is a classic tight end. The only player who has shown an ability to stretch the field is Chesson, who has so far been unable to vibe with Rudock, resulting in just 11 catches for 106 yards this year. Michigan has dropped off a little bit in pass protection and now sits at #21 nationally with 5 sacks allowed, though the past two opponents (BYU, Maryland) have good pass rushes. Northwestern is tied for 59th in sacks, and they are led by weakside end Deonte Gibson and his backup, Ifeadi Odenigbo, both of whom have 2.5 on the year. Gibson and Lowry have 4 quarterback hurries each. Cornerbacks Matthew Harris (3 interceptions, 6 pass breakups) and Nick VanHoose (5 pass breakups) are both physical, with Harris being the quicker playmaker. Lowry, the 6’6″ defensive end, has batted down 3 balls, too. As a result of good coverage and a decent pass rush, the Wildcats are #7 in pass defense (130 yards/game) and #3 in passer rating against them. They have allowed just 2 touchdowns through the air while making 5 picks. Michigan should be able to hold up pretty well against the pass rush, but they will have to be creative in their play calling in order to hit things downfield. Passing game coordinator Jedd Fisch has gone away from targeting his tight ends quite so much in recent weeks, but he would probably be wise to involve Butt, Ian Bunting, and Khalid Hill in the passing game since the wideouts might struggle against Harris and VanHoose.
Advantage: Northwestern

Rush Defense vs. Northwestern Rush Offense
Michigan is #5 in rush defense, allowing just 71 yards/game, and their 2.32 yards against/carry is also #5. Defensive tackles Ryan Glasgow (4 tackles for loss) and Chris Wormley (7 tackles for loss) have been playing very well, and defensive end Willie Henry can also wreak some havoc. Inside linebackers Joe Bolden and Desmond Morgan lead the team in tackles with 32 and 30, respectively. The team had some early-season struggles with tackling against the likes of UNLV, but for the most part, they have been solid in that area. Michigan has held the last two opponents to a combined 48 carries for 79 yards. Meanwhile, Northwestern gains 249 yards/game on the ground, which is #14 nationally. However, their yards per carry is #63 at 4.36. The workhorse running back is Justin Jackson (5’11”, 190 lbs.), who looks tiny on the field but gets the job done. He is not particularly strong or fast, but he gets the job done for them (138 carries, 636 yards, 4.61 yards/carry, 1 touchdown). Backup Warren Long (6’0″, 210 lbs.) is a little more powerful, but he has not been effective outside of a two-game stretch against Eastern Illinois and Duke. The offensive line is similar in experience to Michigan’s, with two redshirt seniors, two redshirt juniors, and a redshirt freshman. Quarterback Clayton Thorson is a bit of a threat to run the ball, averaging 4.02 yards/carry, and he is a bit like former Michigan quarterback Steve Threet running the spread – not an ideal runner, but enough speed to hurt you if you forget about him.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense
Michigan has not faced particularly competent quarterbacks, but allowing 113 yards/game is good enough for #3 in the country. Teams have completed just 23% of their passes against lockdown cornerback Jourdan Lewis, and the secondary is good enough that backup cornerback Jeremy Clark leads the team with 3 interceptions. The passer rating against Michigan is #2 nationally. All of that is despite the lack of an elite pass rush, and that aspect of Michigan’s defense took a hit last week when Buck linebacker Mario Ojemudia ruptured his Achilles and was lost for the year. Backup Royce Jenkins-Stone lacks the same explosiveness, so Michigan will have to try to replace Ojemudia’s disruption in other ways. Starting corner Channing Stribling missed last week with an injury, but he should return. The Wildcats have only allowed 4 sacks this year, which is tied for 12th. (As an aside, through four games each, Air Force and Toledo have still not allowed a sack. Wow.) Northwestern, however, gains just 142 yards/game through the air, and their passer rating hangs out just above Michigan’s at #100 nationally. Thorson completes 57% of his passes for 6.3 yards/attempt, and has a 4:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Superback (a.k.a. H-back) Dan Vitale leads the team with 15 catches for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. The outside receivers are not dangerous, and Michigan should be able to shut them down; Christian Jones is the most competent with 14 catches, 157 yards, and 0 scores. I am more concerned about mobile quarterbacks now that Ojemudia is gone, but I don’t think Thorson is too much of a threat to break contain and hurt the non-Ojemudia rushers.
Advantage: Michigan

Roster Notes

• Players recruited by Michigan include: SB Garrett Dickerson, OT Tommy Doles, DT Greg Kuhar, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, OT Eric Olson, WR Miles Shuler, CB Parrker Westphal
• Graduate assistant Tommy Rees is the former quarterback from Notre Dame

Last Time They Played . . .

• Known as the MOON game, the two teams were tied 0-0 at halftime last season
• Devin Gardner was 11/24 for 109 yards and 2 interceptions
• De’Veon Smith had his then-best career game (18 carries, 121 yards, 1 touchdown)
• Michigan’s front seven dominated the game (9 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 2 interceptions, 3 pass breakups), holding Justin Jackson to 35 yards on 17 carries
• Michigan 10, Northwestern 9

Predictions

• Neither offense looks competent for long stretches
• Drake Johnson throws a halfback pass
• Michigan confuses Thorson into 2 interceptions
• Michigan 17, Northwestern 10

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