Preview: Michigan vs. Penn State

RUSH OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #19 in rush offense (212.3 yards/game) and #14 in yards per carry, based largely on the vision, elusiveness, and toughness of Blake Corum, who led the country in rushing touchdowns (11) until Pitt’s Israel Abanikanda popped off with 6 scores last weekend to bring his total to 12. Backup Donovan Edwards has yet to really break out this season and had 7 carries for just 15 yards last week against Indiana. Penn State is #5 in rush defense (79.8 yards allowed/game) and allows just 2.96 yards per carry, which is #15 in the nation. Senior safety Ji’Ayir Brown (5’11”, 202 lbs.) leads the team with 18 tackles, followed by freshman inside linebacker Abdul Carter (6’2″, 233) with 17, but there are twelve players with between 10-17 tackles. Junior defensive end Adisa Isaac (6’4″, 233) paces the Nittany Lions with 4.5 tackles for loss. They are a good defense without a lot of standouts, but Michigan hasn’t been able to create much in the run game that Blake Corum hasn’t created for himself.
Advantage: Penn State

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PASS OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #69 in passing offense (246.3 yards/game) and #12 in passing efficiency. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw his first interception on a tipped ball last week, but other than a couple questionable arm-moving-forward-when-hit kinds of reps, he has taken care of the ball pretty well and leads the nation in completion percentage. He’s averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has 9 passing touchdowns. Wide receiver Ronnie Bell (30 catches, 390 yards, 1 touchdown) and tight end Luke Schoonmaker (23 catches, 229 yards, 2 TD) have emerged as McCarthy’s two favorite targets, but wideouts Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson each have 3 touchdowns on 12 receptions each. Michigan is tied for #33 in sacks allowed per game (1.33). Meawhile, Penn State is tied at #64 in sacks per game (2.4), led by freshman defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton (6’5″, 253) with 3. Penn State is #102 in passing defense (262 yards allowed/game), but at 5.8 yards per attempt, they’re tied at #12, and they’re #7 in passing efficiency defense. They have given up 5 touchdowns and made 5 interceptions. Safeties Jy’Ayir Brown and Zakee Wheatley (6’2″, 190) both have 2 picks. I think this phase of the game may come down to whether Roman Wilson returns from injury or not, because he’s needed to stretch the field as a big play threat.
Advantage: Michigan

RUSH DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #7 in rush defense (81.7 yards allowed/game) and #6 in yards allowed per carry (2.62). Inside linebacker Junior Colson (44 tackles) has taken a commanding lead in stops, and closest to him comes fellow linebacker Michael Barrett (30). Edge defenders Mike Morris (7 tackles for loss) and Jaylen Harrell (4.5) have been very good against the run, as has nose tackle Mazi Smith (23 tackles, 2.5 TFLs). Penn State true freshman running back Nick Singleton (6’0″, 219) has been one of the surprises of the early going, averaging 7.35 yards per carry and ranking #7 in the Big Ten in rushing yards (463). Penn State is #33 in rushing offense (192.6 yards/game) and #34 in yards per carry (4.94). Backup Kaytron Allen (5’11”, 201) has 34 carries for 197 yards and 1 touchdown over the past two games. Penn State’s center and right side of the line are all fourth or fifth year players, but left tackle Olu Fashanu (6’6″, 321) and left guard Landon Tengwall (6’6″, 332) are younger and largely inexperienced. This will be Michigan’s biggest test of the season, and I think PSU will have some success running the ball.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #10 in pass defense (165.3 yards allowed/game), #4 in yards allowed per attempt (5.1), and #6 in passing efficiency defense. Cornerback Gemon Green has allowed a couple short completions, but he has been very good overall. Safety Rod Moore leads the team with 2 interceptions, and cornerback D.J. Turner II has mostly been very good except for a couple poor pass interference penalties, but those things are going to happen. Michigan is surprisingly #5 in sacks (3.67) despite losing two first round talents at edge rusher, and the leading sack guys are Mike Morris (5.0) and Eyabi Okie (3.0). Penn State is #62 in passing offense (251 yards/game) and #50 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Sean Clifford (6’2″, 212) is a four-year starter who is completing 62% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His top targets are wideout Parker Washington (5’10”, 212), who has 20 catches for 285 yards, and out-of-nowhere tight end Brenton Strange (6’3″, 247), who has 15 catches for 231 yards and 4 scores. Penn State is #25 in giving up sacks at 1.4 per game.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Penn State players recruited by Michigan include: QB Drew Allar, LB Jamari Budden, OL Jimmy Christ, CB Cristian Driver, DT Dvon Ellies, OL Olu Fashanu, S Mehki Flowers, RB Devyn Ford, CB Daequan Hardy, DE Adisa Isaac, TE Theo Johnson, CB Kalen King, LB Kobe King, DE Rodney McGraw, CB Joey Porter Jr., WR Kaden Saunders, LB Jonathan Sutherland, OL Landon Tengwall, QB Christian Veilleux
• Penn State players from the State of Michigan include: LB Jamari Budden (Belleville), CB Kalen King (Cass Tech), LB Kobe King (Cass Tech), S Jaylen Reed (Detroit King)

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED…

• On November 13, 2021, Michigan won at Penn State by a score of 21-17
• TE Erick All caught the game-winning 47-yard touchdown pass
• With RB Blake Corum out due to injury, RB Hassan Haskins carried the load almost by himself with 31 carries for 156 yards
• WR Roman Wilson caught 3 passes for 31 yards, including 2 touchdowns
• Michigan sacked Penn State QB Sean Clifford 7 total times, including 3 by Aidan Hutchinson and 2 by David Ojabo

PREDICTION

• Michigan 31, Penn State 26

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