RUSH OFFENSE vs. WISCONSIN RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is the #8 rushing team in the country (253.5 yards/game) and #2 in yards per carry (6.67) after an outstanding showing over the past couple games. RB Justice Haynes (66 carries, 537 yards, 6 touchdowns) is getting buzz in Michigan circles as a potential Heisman candidate after four straight 100+ yard games, including runs of 75, 75, 59, and 56 yards over the first four weeks. I think Heisman talk is premature, but he’s fast and tough and has shown good vision. QB Bryce Underwood has 17 carries for 175 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past two games, and backup RB Jordan Marshall (16 carries, 132 yards, 3 TD over the past two games) has come alive, too. Michigan should be closer to full strength up front after the bye week, too, after playing games without LG Giovanni El-Hadi and RG Brady Norton. Wisconsin is #1 in rushing defense (50 yards allowed/game) and #3 in yards allowed per carry (2.11). Their worst performance was allowing 72 yards on 3.27 yards/carry against Alabama, so it’s a formidable run-stopping unit. They start former Grand Valley State/LSU DT Jay’viar Suggs (6’3″, 299), who was recruited by Michigan as a transfer going into 2024, and fifth year senior NT Ben Barten (6’5″, 330) on the defensive line. The two leading tacklers are junior LB Christian Alliegro (6’4″, 247) and redshirt junior LB Tackett Curtis (6’2″, 235) with 22 and 20 stops, respectively. This will be the key matchup, because Michigan’s offense depends on running the ball and Wisconsin’s lone strength is its run defense.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. WISCONSIN PASS DEFENSE
Michigan has yet to really impress in the passing game, ranking #106 in yards per game (183.3), #80 in yards per attempt (7.1), and #111 in passing efficiency. Underwood is completing 56.9% of his passes, and against two Power 4 opponents, he has completed 21/46 passes for 247 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Both of those games have been on the road against solid defenses, but it’s still something to watch. Meanwhile, WR Donaven McCulley (13 catches, 197 yards) has reliable hands and some big-play ability, but so far there have been some miscommunications between him and Underwood. The other receiving targets have been somewhat underwhelming, and speedster Fred Moore is no longer with the program. Buzz this week has been about freshman WR Andrew Marsh (1 catch for 30 yards) and freshman WR Jamar Browder, both of whom were shouted out by Sherrone Moore in Monday’s press conference, but I’ll believe that hype when I see it. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is #89 in pass defense (234.5 yards allowed/game), #115 in yards allowed per attempt (8.2), and #109 in passing efficiency defense. I don’t think Wisconsin is that bad against the pass, because they faced Alabama’s highly touted QB Ty Simpson and a very good freshman QB in Maryland’s Malik Washington. My guess is their pass defense will move up in the rankings throughout the year, but for now, it doesn’t look good. They are tied for #38 in sacks per game (2.5), led by Alliegro and OLB Mason Reiger (6’5″, 248) with 2 each. The Badgers play some relatively light outside linebackers as defensive ends and manage to get away with it against the run, but it will be interesting to see how Michigan’s so-so tackles handle them. On the back end, Wisconsin starts four fourth or fifth year players and one junior, so they’re experienced but not super talented. They have managed 3 interceptions this season, but all three came against Miami-OH and Middle Tennessee State. I don’t think Michigan will have consistent success, but I think there will be some big plays for the Wolverines.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. WISCONSIN RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #10 in rushing defense (77.5 yards/game) and #6 in yards allowed per carry (2.35). The one “bad” showing this year was against Oklahoma and QB John Mateer, a potential Heisman candidate – although one with a broken right hand now – so things have been pretty steady. Nebraska did have some success with its running back early in the last game, but Michigan wore out Nebraska’s offensive line by the end and had a bunch of sacks to tamp down the stats significantly. LB Ernest Hausmann (29 tackles) leads the team and is followed by LB Jimmy Rolder (21), S Brandyn Hillman (20), and LB Cole Sullivan (19). Sullivan in particular has come into his own over the past few weeks and has made a nice three-man rotation at inside linebacker with Hausmann and Rolder, allowing Jaishawn Barham (16 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks) to move to edge. I feel like the domination of Nebraska’s offensive line is going to carry over into a good performance for Michigan’s defensive line now that they’ve got that confidence in place. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has been pretty poor on the offensive line and their center is hurt. They are #110 in rushing offense (117.8 yards/game) and #126 in yards per carry (3.14). Yikes! Those numbers are skewed by some anomalies, but it’s still not what we’re used to seeing from Wisconsin teams. Redshirt freshman RB Dilin Jones (6’0″, 208) and sophomore RB Darrion Dupree (5’10”, 212) each have 35 carries and for 4.4 and 4.1 yards per carry, respectively. Michigan recruited both of them out of high school, but neither one has shown much yet. On Saturday the Badgers will likely be starting three redshirt freshmen, including backup center Ryan Cory (6’4″, 308).
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. WISCONSIN PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #71 in passing defense (213.8 yards allowed/game) and #29 in yards allowed per attempt (6.0). The completion percentage has been high (65.7% allowed overall), but teams have to get rid of the ball quick to beat the pass rush, and Michigan has been able to come up and tackle quickly for the most part. Sullivan has been solid against the pass and leads the team with 2 interceptions. Meanwhile, Michigan is #6 in sacks per game (3.5), and that should continue now that Barham is coming off the edge and Sullivan (2.0 sacks) is playing more. In other words, a consistent pass rush can come from the edges (Barham and Derrick Moore, who has 1.5 sacks), linebacker (Sullivan), or DT Rayshaun Benny (1.5 sacks). On the back end, it would be nice to get CB Zeke Berry back, who has been injured since the Oklahoma game, and it would also be nice if Hillman can stop taunting and getting penalties from the safety position. Wisconsin is #89 in passing offense (205.8), #68 in yards per attempt (7.4), and #74 in passing efficiency. The QB has mostly been sophomore San Diego State transfer Danny O’Neil (6’0″, 197), who has a good completion percentage (70.6%) but 5 interceptions to go with his 5 touchdowns. He looks like a guy who could be a pretty solid starter in the MAC, but his size, arm strength, and decision making are overwhelmed in the Big Ten. Maryland transfer QB Billy Edwards, Jr. has only played in two games due to a knee injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be available. The leading receiving target is senior TE Lance Mason (6’4″, 250) with 14 catches for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. Senior Ohio State transfer WR Jayden Ballard (6’2″, 205) has a couple long touchdowns and senior WR Vinny Anthony (6’0″, 190) is the leading wideout with 12 catches for 161 yards and 1 touchdown, but it’s an underwhelming group overall.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Wisconsin players recruited by Michigan include: DB Omillio Agard, LB Sebastian Cheeks, WR Dekel Crowdus, LB Tackett Curtis, RB Darrion Dupree, QB Billy Edwards Jr., DB Ricardo Hallman, RB Dilin Jones, DB Jai’mier Scott, QB Carter Smith, DL Jay’viar Suggs, OLB Jaylen Williams
- Players from the State of Michigan include: WR Tyrell Henry
- QB Carter Smith and OLB Jaylen Williams were both committed to Michigan at one time
- K Stone Anderson transferred from Michigan to Wisconsin
- Former Michigan recruiting target Tuf Borland – a great football name – is now a defensive assistant for Wisconsin
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- On October 2, 2021, Michigan beat Wisconsin by a score of 38-17
- Freshman QB J.J. McCarthy completed his only pass, a 56-yard touchdown to WR Daylen Baldwin
- K Jake Moody went 3/3 on field goals
- Starting QB Cade McNamara completed 17/28 passes for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Michigan held Wisconsin to 43 rushing yards on 32 attempts
PREDICTION
- Michigan 31, Wisconsin 10
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