Tag: 2010 Recruiting

Statistical Analysis of 2010 Recruiting: Part III

As I was keeping track of Michigan’s recruiting efforts throughout the 2010 cycle, I began to wonder where Michigan has the most success in recruiting. The obvious answers would be “in state” and “near home” and those answers held true, to no one’s surprise.

You can see in the above chart (click to enlarge) that Michigan got the best bang for its buck in contiguous states like Wisconsin and Ohio. Pennsylvania is #5 on the list.

Sitting there at #4, though, is Louisiana. Michigan got two of the six prospects who were offered, slot receiver Drew Dileo and safety Carvin Johnson. The other four were WR Trovon Reed (Auburn), QB Munchie Legaux (Cincinnati), DE Jordan Allen (LSU), and CB Ronnie Vinson (LSU). Of those four, only Legaux didn’t have an LSU offer. As I said in yesterday’s post, kids in the deep south tend to stay in the deep south if a decent local program offers. Reed spurned LSU for a school in neighboring Alabama, but Allen and Vinson jumped at the opportunity to play in the Bayou.

Moving on to Florida, that percentage might be a bit alarming. The Wolverines extended more offers to Florida than any other individual state by far – 46 offers in all, beating Ohio by 16 – but Michigan’s success rate in the Sunshine State was just below 7%. With all three commitments from Florida being 4-stars (Demar Dorsey, Marvin Robinson, Richard Ash), the kids Michigan has stolen have been elite talents. But this is something to watch in the coming years. If Rich Rodriguez continues to offer a high volume of kids from Florida, hopefully the commitments he gets remain elite players. I would hate to see the coaching staff spend such significant time and effort on Florida only to get middling recruits from the state. That being said, the coaches have done a good job there over the past couple years. They’ve established a pipeline from Pahokee (Martavious Odoms, Brandin Hawthorne, Vincent Smith, Richard Ash) and could be in the process of building a pipeline from Dr. Phillips High School in Orlando (Ricardo Miller transferred from Dr. Phillips to Ann Arbor Pioneer after committing, and 2011 prospects Demetrius Hart and Hasean Clinton-Dix have both been offered).

Rodriguez knows what side his bread is buttered on. He’ll continue to get a high volume of recruits from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and he’ll try to pluck a few elite talents out of Florida. Those efforts will be complemented by an occasional commitment from various other states.

Statistical Analysis of 2010 Recruiting: Part I

As you can see by the somewhat muddled pie chart above (click it to enlarge), I’ve compiled some statistics from the 2010 offer board. I’m no computer expert, so my talents will grow, but bear with me in the meantime. Anyway, this is the beginning of a short series of posts regarding the distribution of Michigan offers.

Throughout the 2010 recruiting cycle, I did my best to keep a running tab on which players throughout the country were offered by Michigan. The list developed by using recruiting sites (Rivals and Scout) and newspaper articles. Not all newspaper articles and recruiting profiles are 100% accurate, but their validity can be hard to verify.

There are some odd examples that should be identified. For example, Jamaal Jackson is a running back from Newark, Delaware. As of February 9, 2010, he has yet to choose a school, but his Rivals profile lists him as having offers from several BCS programs, including Michigan, Boston College, and Rutgers, among others. There’s also the case of Travis Williams, a cornerback from Cooper City, Florida. He tried to commit to Michigan in the spring of 2009, but was “encouraged” by Michigan’s coaches to weigh all of his options. Williams was never heard from again on Michigan’s radar and ended up signing a letter of intent to Miami-OH, but I kept him on the list, as it appears he had been offered by Michigan before the coaches cooled on him.

And then there’s cornerback Adrian Witty. Witty was a high school teammate of Denard Robinson’s in Deerfield Park, Florida, and committed to Michigan in 2009. However, he failed to qualify and took an evening class in the fall of 2009 in order to enroll for January 2010. He passed the class but was somehow denied admission to Michigan. According to rumor, Rich Rodriguez put in a good word for Witty with new Cincinnati coach Butch Jones, and Witty signed his LOI to play for Cincinnati as a member of the class of 2010. Considering that Michigan’s coaches wanted him at Michigan, I also include him on the 2010 Offer Board.

Back to the analysis:

A plurality of offers were extended to recruits from Florida – 46 out of the 190 total offers, in fact. This makes some sense, as Michigan received 7 commitments from the state of Florida in 2009. However, Michigan only secured 3 recruits from Florida in 2010, which is slightly less than 7% of the offers tendered. If Michigan had that kind of success rate nationally, they would need to offer 415 players in order to get 27 commitments.

The Wolverines also made a significant attempts to recruit in Michigan’s geographic footprint, with 56 offers going to players from Michigan (10), Ohio (30), Pennsylvania (11), Indiana (3), Illinois (1), and Wisconsin (1). As would be expected, the percentage of commitments from those areas are significantly higher than in Florida; 34% of offered prospects in that midwest section accepted their offers.

A total of 25 offers went to recruits from talent-rich states Georgia and Texas. Only one of those recruits accepted.

Meanwhile, Michigan pursued 10 kids from Maryland, a small but relatively populous state that has excellent football programs with the likes of DeMatha and Our Lady of Good Counsel. One (Josh Furman, from Old Mill High School) accepted.

There was a smattering of other offers, as illustrated by the chart above. But we can see that Michigan is going hard after kids in the Deep South (Florida, Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, South Carolina) and in the Upper Midwest (Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania). Beyond those states, Rich Rodriguez seems to only be making cursory efforts in the Great Plains (A.J. Derby from Iowa), the West Coast (12 from California, 1 from Arizona, 1 from Utah, and none from Oregon or Washington), and the Northeast (such as Dominique Easley from New York and Khairi Fortt from Connecticut). The 12 from California might seem like a high number, until one considers that 48 players from the state were rated 4-stars or higher by Rivals; California is a gold mine of football talent.

We know for certain that Michigan will continue recruiting Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania hard. I also expect the Wolverines to offer more than 10 in-state prospects for the class of 2011; six offers have already been extended.

All coaches’ recruiting strategies continue to evolve, and I don’t expect anything different from Rich Rodriguez. He was largely unsuccessful in the deep south. I expect that he’ll try to make some more inroads in Texas, a perennially talent-rich state, but perhaps ignore Georgia recruiting a bit more. Offers will go where the talent is, but it’s a waste of time and resources to recruit heavily in states where the players don’t want to leave home, are afraid of playing in cold weather, or have enough traditionally powerful in-state programs to suck up all the local talent.

Demar Dorsey, Wolverine

I will unleash my 175 lbs. of fury upon you!

This is a few days old, but that’s what happens when 25 inches of snow pour down and you have to retreat to safer shelter.

On National Signing Day, Demar Dorsey from Lauderdale Lakes, FL, committed to Michigan. In the overall rankings, Dorsey is #12 to ESPN, #162 to Rivals, and #203 to Scout; many would latch onto that #12 ranking, but ESPN proves over and over again that they know nothing about recruiting, so take that with a grain of salt. Anyway, Dorsey’s commitment was somewhat of a surprise, since he wasn’t on Michigan fans’ radar until about a month before NSD. Dorsey had been committed to Florida for over a year and seemingly visited just to have a good time with his cousin, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson.

According to Dorsey, though, he knew during his official visit (that coincided with Michigan’s basketball victory over Connecticut) that Michigan was The Place. It’s unclear whether Florida dropped Dorsey or vice versa, but either way, he also visited Florida State and USC late in the process, so he had the experts confused; most seemed to think he’d ultimately sign with FSU.

I would be remiss not to mention Dorsey’s issues as a minor. He had some trouble with the law, but was never found guilty of any wrongdoing and participated in a diversionary program. I will not go into details, as they have been discussed ad nauseam elsewhere. I’ll let it suffice to say that Rodriguez is taking a bit of a public relations risk with Dorsey, on the heels of the Justin Feagin situation last year; however, most football coaches taken chances on talented kids with checkered pasts. Hopefully, the diversionary program worked for Dorsey and he can move on to be a productive student and citizen at Michigan.

Back to football, though, Dorsey’s position is a bit up in the air. The coaches told him he could play some wide receiver, and he could probably help in the return game, but but he’s a defensive back of some sort. Some project him as a strong safety at Michigan; others predict he’ll be a cornerback. I feel fairly confident in predicting that Dorsey will battle for playing time at the cornerback position as a freshman in 2010. Michigan has zero experienced cornerbacks returning in 2010 with the departure of Donovan Warren to the NFL. Besides redshirt sophomore J.T. Floyd, every other cornerback on the roster will have freshman eligibility – Justin Turner, Cullen Christian, Courtney Avery, and Terrence Talbott. Michigan needs to throw every available body at the cornerback spot and whichever one performs best should get the job.

Michigan’s most experienced cornerback isn’t really a cornerback, but a strong safety – Troy Woolfolk. Some have suggested that Woolfolk should move to cornerback and Michigan should play a freshman at strong safety, but that would be disastrous. The only time Woolfolk got burned at the strong safety position was in the 2009 opener when he and the aforementioned Floyd got burned against Western Michigan. In practice, Woolfolk earned the nickname “The Eraser” for his ability to cover up for everyone else’s mistakes. Experience is necessary on the back end of your defensive backfield, because young guys get out of position and get fooled by double moves, play action, etc. It’s no coincidence that Michigan’s defense went south once Woolfolk moved to corner in mid-2009.

With Woolfolk at strong safety and presumably Justin Turner at one cornerback position, the trio of Floyd, Christian, and Dorsey should fight it out for the other corner. Michigan’s coaches did everything they could to keep Floyd off the field in 2009 (they’d rather have Jordan Kovacs playing strong safety than have Floyd play corner), so I sincerely doubt he’ll start. Dorsey is a better athlete than Christian, but the latter’s coverage skills are more refined, so that’s kind of a toss-up.

Dorsey is a burner. As a junior, he finished second to Denard Robinson in the state 100 meter finals with a time of 10.60 seconds (compared to Robinson’s 10.44). He later ran a 10.55 and has even claimed to have run a 10.3, although I can find no recorded evidence of that time. This athleticism should allow him to run with just about every receiver he faces. It also would allow him to cover a lot of ground from the strong safety position.

However, we can see some of his rawness in the video below. First of all, he’s only 175 lbs. In the second still shot (the one from the Under Armour All American game), we can see his scrawny little leg; he has a decided lack of bulk. In the first highlight from the UA game, he causes a fumble on kick coverage. He does a good job of mirroring the returner, but then he reaches and grabs the jersey, flinging the ball carrier to the ground and causing the fumble; this is the tackling technique of a raw cornerback, not the strong safety who is supposed to be a team’s last line of defense. Later in the highlights, he plays a ball from the deep middle safety position. Unfortunately, he takes a bad angle to the football; instead of meeting the ball at its highest point or at least aiming to punish the receiver, he takes the path of least resistance and gets a hand on the ball after it gets past the receiver.

All of these factors lead me to believe that Dorsey will be better off starting his career at cornerback. Further evidence exists in that Rich Rodriguez said as much in his signing day press conference. This does not mean that Dorsey couldn’t move to strong safety eventually. He could probably be a pretty good strong safety with some technique and experience under his belt. But that won’t happen until at least 2011.

My projection for 2010:
CB: Justin Turner
CB: Cullen Christian
FS: Jordan Kovacs
SS: Troy Woolfolk

2010 Offer Board

Current total: 190 offers

Players listed in order of likeliness to commit.

Most recent updates:

Demar Dorsey (CB) committed to Michigan.

Tony Grimes (CB) committed to Mississippi.

Sean Parker (S) committed to Washington.

Dietrich Riley (S) committed to UCLA.

Chaz Green (OL) committed to Florida.

Ricky Heimuli (DT) committed to Oregon.

Christian Jones (LB) committed to Florida State.

Nickell Robey (RB) changed his commitment from Florida to USC.

Alex Smith (TE) changed his commitment from Cincinnati to Kentucky.

Brandon Gainer (RB) committed to Kentucky.

Marcus Lattimore (RB) committed to South Carolina.

Adrian Coxson (WR) committed to Florida.

James Stone (OL) committed to Tennessee.

Arie Kouandjio (OL) committed to Alabama.

Matt James (OL) committed to Notre Dame.

Corey Lemonier (DE) committed to Auburn.

Gabe King (DE) committed to Cal.

Mike Thornton (DT) committed to Georgia.

Jeffrey Whitaker (DT) committed to Auburn.

Keenan Allen (S) committed to Cal.

Darrin Kitchens (LB) committed to Florida.

QUARTERBACK (10)
Devin Gardner – Inkster, MI
Conelius Jones – Spartanburg, SC
Christian Green – Tampa, FL (Florida State commit)
Munchie Legaux – New Orleans, LA (Colorado commit)
A.J. Derby – Iowa City, IA (Iowa commit)
Robert Bolden – Orchard Lake, MI (Penn State commit)
Jeffrey Godfrey – Miami, FL (Central Florida commit)
Jeremy Johnson – Silsbee, TX (West Virginia commit)
Blake Sims – Gainesville, GA (Alabama commit)
Demarco Cobbs – Tulsa, OK (Texas commit)

RUNNING BACK (25)
Stephen Hopkins – Flower Mound, TX
Austin White – Livonia, MI
Jamaal Jackson – Newark, DE
Lucky Radley – Woodland Hills, CA (Utah commit)
Cassius McDowell – Deerfield Park, FL (Toledo commit)
Dietrich Riley – La Canada, CA (UCLA commit)
Brandon Gainer – Miami, FL (Kentucky commit)
Marcus Lattimore – Duncan, SC (South Carolina commit)
Tony Jones – Ramsey, NJ (Colorado commit)
Marcus Coker – Hyattsville, MD (Iowa commit)
Lache Seastrunk – Temple, TX (Oregon commit)
Devon Wright – Coral Springs, FL (Minnesota commit)
Corvin Lamb – Miami, FL (Louisville commit)
Dillon Baxter – San Diego, CA (USC commit)
Corey Brown – Springfield, PA (Ohio State commit)
Eduardo Clements – Miami, FL (Miami commit)
Spencer Ware – Cincinnati, OH (LSU commit)
Mack Brown – Lithonia, GA (Florida commit)
Andre Givens – Hubbard, OH (Pitt commit)
Nickell Robey – Frostproof, FL (Georgia commit)
Kendrun Malcome – Decatur, GA (Georgia commit)
Roderick Smith – Fort Wayne, IN (Ohio State commit)
Roy Finch – Niceville, FL (Oklahoma commit)
Darion Hall – Naples, FL (Miami commit)
Brennan Clay – San Diego, CA (Oklahoma commit)

WIDE RECEIVER (17)
Jeremy Jackson – Ann Arbor, MI
Ricardo Miller – Ann Arbor, MI
Jerald Robinson – Canton, OH
D.J. Williamson – Warren, OH
Drew Dileo – Greenwell Springs, LA
Tony Drake – Dallas, TX (Colorado State commit)
Adrian Coxson – Baltimore, MD (Florida commit)
Chris Dunkley – Royal Palm Beach, FL (Florida commit)
Kenny Shaw – Orlando, FL (Florida State commit)
Kenny Stills – Carlsbad, CA (Oklahoma commit)
Trovon Reed – Thibodaux, LA (Auburn commit)
O.J. Ross – Daytona Beach, FL (Purdue commit)
Kyle Prater – Hillside, IL (USC commit)
Andrew Carswell – McKees Rocks, PA (Pitt commit)
De’Joshua Johnson – Pahokee, FL (Florida State commit)
Quinton Dunbar – Miami, FL (Florida commit)
Tai-ler Jones – Gainesville, GA (Notre Dame commit)

TIGHT END (3)
Alex Smith – Cincinnati, OH (Kentucky commit)
Alex Welch – Cincinnati, OH (Notre Dame commit)
Randall Telfer – Rancho Cucamonga, CA (USC commit)

OFFENSIVE LINE (17)
Christian Pace – Avon Lake, OH
Seantrel Henderson – Saint Paul, MN (USC commit)
Chaz Green – Tampa, FL (Florida commit)
Matt James – Cincinnati, OH (Notre Dame commit)
Arie Kouandjio – Hyattsville, MD (Alabama commit)
James Stone – Nashville, TN (Tennessee commit)
Ian Silberman – Fleming Island, FL (Florida commit)
Kevin Schloemer – West Chester, OH (Cincinnati commit)
Torrian Wilson – Miami, OH (Louisville commit)
Jake Kaufman – Jersey City, NJ (South Florida commit)
Skyler Schofner – Johnstown, OH (Michigan State commit)
Eric Mack – St. Matthews, SC (South Carolina commit)
Andrew Donnal – Whitehouse, OH (Iowa commit)
Robert Crisp – Chapel Hill, NC (NC State commit)
Christian Lombard – Palatine, IL (Notre Dame commit)
James Hurst – Indianapolis, IN (UNC commit)
Brent Benedict – Jacksonville, FL (Georgia commit)

DEFENSIVE END (30)
Jordan Paskorz – Allison Park, PA
Ken Wilkins – Washington, PA
Jibreel Black – Cincinnati, OH
Corey Lemonier – Hialeah, FL (Auburn commit)
Gabe King – Greensboro, NC (Cal commit)
Jackson Jeffcoat – Plano, TX (Texas commit)
Fre’Shad Hunter – Cary, NC (NC State commit)
David Perry – Fort Lauderdale, FL (Miami commit)
Alfy Hill – Shallotte, NC (Alabama commit)
Clarence Murphy – Hollywood Hills, FL (Maryland commit)
Dominique Easley – Statent Island, NY (Florida commit)
Wayne Dorsey – Perkinston, MS (Mississippi commit)
Tobi Okuyemi – Plymouth, MN (Nebraska commit)
Blake Lueders – Zionsville, IN (Notre Dame commit)
Lynden Trail – Miami, FL (Florida commit)
Derrick Bryant – Columbus, OH (UCLA commit)
C.J. Olaniyan – Warren, MI (Penn State commit)
Brandon Willis – Duncan, SC (North Carolina commit)
Delvin Jones – Miami, FL (Tennessee commit)
Marcus Rush – Cincinnati, OH (Michigan State commit)
Dakota Royer – Manheim, PA (Penn State commit)
T.J. Stripling – Decatur, GA (Georgia commit)
Darryl Baldwin – Solon, OH (Ohio State commit)
Corey Miller – Duncan, SC (Tennessee commit)
Jordan Allen – West Monroe, LA (LSU commit)
Henry Anderson – College Park, GA (Stanford commit)
William Gholston – Detroit, MI (Michigan State commit)
Kyle Baublitz – York, PA (Penn State commit)
B.J. Butler – Kissimmee, FL (Georgia commit)
Jamel Turner – Youngstown, OH (Ohio State commit)

DEFENSIVE TACKLE (15)
Terry Talbott – Huber Heights, OH
Richard Ash – Pahokee, FL
Mike Thornton – Stone Mountain, GA (Georgia commit)
Ricky Heimuli – Salt Lake City, UT (Oregon commit)
Jeffrey Whitaker – Warner Robins, GA (Auburn commit)
Beau Allen – Minnetonka, MN (Wisconsin commit)
Louis Nix – Jacksonville, FL (Notre Dame commit)
T.J. Clemmings – Paterson, NJ (Pitt commit)
Sharrif Floyd – Philadelphia, PA (Florida commit)
Johnathan Hankins – Detroit, MI (Ohio State commit)
Jatashun Beachum – Dallax, TX (Arkansas commit)
Evan Hailes – Chesapeake, VA (Penn State commit)
A.J. Cann – Bamberg, SC (South Carolina commit)
Chase Rome – Columbia, MO (Nebraska commit)
Jay Guy – Aldine, TX (Nebraska commit)

LINEBACKER (30)
Antonio Kinard – Youngstown, OH
Josh Furman – Millersville, MD
Davion Rogers – Warren, OH
Jake Ryan – Westlake, OH
Darrin Kitchens – Homestead, FL (Florida commit)
Christian Jones – Winter Park, FL (Florida State commit)
Shaun Lewis – Missouri City, TX (Oregon State commit)
Chris McCain – Greensboro, NC (Oregon commit)
Jordan Hicks – West Chester, OH (Texas commit)
Anthony Barr – Torrance, CA (UCLA commit)
Michael Taylor – Atlanta, GA (Florida commit)
Tony Jefferson – Chula Vista, CA (Oklahoma commit)
Travis Williams – Norfolk, VA (Miami commit)
Quayshawn Nealy – Lakeland, FL (Georgia Tech commit)
Jeff Luc – Port St. Lucie, FL (Florida State commit)
Aramide Olaniyan – Woodberry Forest, VA (UCLA commit)
Troy Gloster – Olney, MD (West Virginia commit)
Khairi Fortt – Stamford, CT (Penn State commit)
Zach Zwinak – Frederick, MD (Penn State commit)
Tyrone Cornileus – Stone Mountain, GA (Georgia commit)
Holmes Onwukaife – Cedar Park, TX (Florida State commit)
Corey Nelson – Dallas, TX (Texas A&M commit)
Javarie Johnson – Washington, DC (Miami commit)
Zachary Allen – Pahokee, FL (Wake Forest commit)
Justin Maclin – Memphis, TN (LSU commit)
Zach Fogerson – Seattle, WA (Washington commit)
Scott McVey – Cleveland, OH (Ohio State commit)
Luke Muncie – Klein, TX (LSU commit)
Caleb Lavey – Celina, TX (Oklahoma State commit)
Mike Hull – Canonsburg, PA (Penn State commit)

CORNERBACK (25)
Courtney Avery – Lexington, OH
Terrence Talbott – Hubert Heights, OH
Cullen Christian – Pittsburgh, PA
Demar Dorsey – Lauderdale Lakes, FL
Adrian Witty – Deerfield Park, FL (Cincinnati commit)
Tony Grimes – Hollywood, FL (Mississippi commit)
Dior Mathis – Detroit, MI (Oregon commit)
Travis Williams – Cooper City, FL (Miami-OH commit)
John Fulton – Manning, SC (Alabama commit)
Lamarcus Joyner – Fort Lauderdale, FL (Florida State commit)
Mike Harris – Torrance, CA (Florida State commit)
Nick Jones – Duncan, SC (South Carolina commit)
Joshua Shaw – Palmdale, CA (Florida commit)
Keion Payne – Fort Lauderdale, FL (Miami commit)
Ricardo Allen – Daytona Beach, FL (Purdue commit)
Louis Young – Olney, MD (Georgia Tech commit)
Darius Robinson – Atlanta, GA (Clemson commit)
Spencer Boyd – Cape Coral, FL (Notre Dame commit)
Detrick Bonner – Locust Grove, GA (Virginia Tech commit)
Lo Wood – Apopka, FL (Notre Dame commit)
Merrill Noel – Pahokee, FL (Wake Forest commit)
Johnathan Mincy – Decatur, GA (Auburn commit)
Mylan Hicks – Detroit, MI (Michigan State commit)
Ronnie Vinson – New Orleans, LA (LSU commit)
Jaylen Watkins – Cape Coral, FL (Florida commit)

SAFETY (17)
Carvin Johnson – Metairie, LA
Ray Vinopal – Youngstown, OH
Marvin Robinson – Eagle Lake, FL
Sean Parker – Harbor City, CA (Washington commit)
Rashad Knight – Jacksonville, FL (Rutgers commit)
Lorenzo Waters – Hyattsville, MD (Rutgers commit)
Marquis Flowers – Goodyear, AZ (Arizona commit)
Latwan Anderson – Lakewood, OH (West Virginia commit)
Michael Coley – Hyattsville, MD (Cal commit)
Brandon Ifill – Pittsburgh, PA (Pitt commit)
Bobby Swigert – Lousville, OH (Boston College commit)
Keenan Allen – Greensboro, NC (Cal commit)
Kurtis Drummond – Hubbard, OH (Michigan State commit)
Dion Bailey – Lakewood, CA (USC commit)
Chad Hagan – Canonsburg, PA (Ohio State commit)
Bashaud Breeland – Allendale, SC (Clemson commit)
Jeff Knox, Jr. – Hyattsville, MD (Pitt commit)

PUNTER (1)
Will Hagerup – Whitefish Bay, WI

National Signing Day predictions

A couple quick predictions, as I don’t/haven’t had much time to write: