Tag: 2012 season countdown

2012 Season Countdown: #5 Jordan Kovacs

Jordan Kovacs

Name: Jordan Kovacs
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 202 lbs.
High school: Curtice (OH) Clay
Position: Safety
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #32
Last year: I ranked Kovacs #13 and said he would make 75 tackles.  He was All-Big Ten Honorable Mention with 75 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, and 1 interception.

Nope, that’s not a typo – I predicted the exact number of tackles Kovacs would make.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  Kovacs had very good season in 2011, when he finally had a defensive coordinator who understood his strengths and weaknesses.  Greg Mattison used him as a blitzer, contain man, and disguising his underneath coverage responsibilities.  Mattison avoided using Kovacs deep whenever possible, and that allowed the sure-tackling safety to find the ball carrier and bring him to the ground.  His best game in 2011 came against Western Michigan when he had 10 tackles and 2 sacks, including the fumble-causing hit that linebacker Brandon Herron returned for a touchdown.  Last season also marked the third consecutive year in which Kovacs grabbed a pick in a big game – Wisconsin in 2009, Ohio State and Notre Dame in 2010, and then Notre Dame again in 2011.

Going into the 2012 season, Kovacs is one of the most indispensable members of the team – from walk-on to likely team captain.  His backups are junior Marvin Robinson and freshman Allen Gant, with Josh Furman also able to play there if necessary.  Robinson is a capable backup, but last year’s legal struggles and some mental lapses place him a step or two below Kovacs.  There’s not much we don’t know about Kovacs at this point.  He’s a very good tackler, a relentless blitzer, and a heady player.  What he lacks in speed and athleticism, he mostly makes up for in angles and intelligence.  He will be a good-to-very good football player, because he has been since his first season.  I used to bemoan his lack of athleticism as a serious downside, but the deployment of Kovacs is one of the things that convinced me of how well Mattison fit with this team.  Unlike Greg Robinson, who used Kovacs to cover a deep half or the middle of the field in 2009-10, Mattison will continue to blitz Kovacs off the edge and use him mostly as an in-the-box defender.  He will continue to rack up tackles, take down the quarterback a few times, and pick off one or two passes.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kovacs earn All-Big Ten honors, if only as a Lifetime Achievement Award type of recognition.

Prediction: Starting strong safety; 80 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions; All-Big Ten Second Team

Poll results: Ricky Barnum was first with 59% and Fitzgerald Toussaint was second with 29% of the votes.  Kovacs was third with just 9%.

2012 Season Countdown: #6 Craig Roh

Craig Roh (#88)

Name: Craig Roh
Height: 6’5″
Weight: 281 lbs.
High school: Scottsdale (AZ) Chaparral
Position: Defensive end
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #88
Last year: I ranked Roh #17 and said he would have 50 tackles and 6 sacks.  He had 32 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.

It’s a little hard to believe for a kid like Roh, but indications last year seemed to be that he struggled to buy in to what the new coaching staff was teaching him.  He was reverting back to old (a.k.a. bad) habits, which is somewhat understandable for a guy who had played outside linebacker in a 4-3 and then outside linebacker in a 3-3-5 stack and then defensive end in a 3-3-5 stack and then weakside defensive end in a 4-3.  In his first three seasons at Michigan, he played four positions.  He had an up-and-down season last year, disappearing for stretches and playing solidly at times.  He was never the elite talent that he appeared to be coming out of high school, but he wasn’t bad, either.  He looked like just an average Big Ten starter.  Michigan fans keep waiting for these elite high school weakside ends to turn into elite college players, and it just doesn’t seem to happen.

Now make it five positions in four years.  Roh has moved to strongside end to replace the departed Ryan Van Bergen.  He has apparently reached the 280 lb. mark, which is a step in the right direction.  For the most part, Roh has been known as a technique guy – despite his early struggles last season – and should be able to hold his own with even adequate weight.  As a high effort player, he shouldn’t be a liability.  Strongside ends often have to take on double-teams from tight ends and tackles, and they’re the guys opposing teams will run at most often.  Roh will be solid again in 2012 and pick up where Van Bergen left off, but the lack of a Mike Martin in the middle will hurt his production.

Prediction: Starting strongside end; 40 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks

Poll results: Roh won 61% of the vote for the #6 spot on the countdown.

2012 Season Countdown: #7 William Campbell

I like this high school picture of William Campbell too much not to post it.

Name: William Campbell
Height: 6’5″
Weight: 308 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) Cass Tech
Position: Defensive tackle
Class: Senior
Jersey number: #73
Last year: I ranked Campbell #15 and said he would start at 3-tech DT with 40 tackles and 3 sacks.  He had 14 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup, and 1 fumble recovery.

Okay, I was a little bit off with my prediction that Campbell would start, that he would be a 3-tech, and that he would make 40 tackles.  In fact, he didn’t start, played mostly 1-tech, and made just 14 tackles.  My hopes were dashed.  He was the primary backup to the now departed Mike Martin, and those aren’t bad statistics for a backup nose tackle; when Martin was a backup, he made 20 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks.  But Martin was a freshman, and Campbell was a junior.  I expected more.  I still don’t really agree with the deployment of Campbell, who would be tough to block for just about any offensive guard one-on-one.  As a nose tackle who struggles to stay low, he’s typically playing against centers (who are shorter and almost always use good leverage) and guards (who are sometimes shorter and often use good leverage).  There were plays last season when Campbell destroyed single blocks, and there were plays where he got washed out of the action by double-teams.  I guess the coaches thought they would rather start Will Heininger than have Quinton Washington or Richard Ash be rotation players, so that’s what happened.

Now three-fourths of last year’s starting defensive line has graduated (Martin, Heininger, and Ryan Van Bergen), and Campbell has to start at nose tackle.  There’s really no other option.  He has reportedly taken to his newfound leadership role and slimmed down to 308 lbs. after playing earlier in his career at 340 or 350.  It’s now or never for the former 5-star recruit.  The conditioning seems to be in place, but it remains to be seen whether he has the desire and focus to stay low every single play.  One of Martin’s best traits was his ability to go hard on almost every play, and he was consistently a disruptive force in the middle of the line because of it.  Ondre Pipkins was expected to be one of Campbell’s backups – if not the primary one – but a recent injury might temporarily keep Pipkins from playing.  That leaves Richard Ash, Quinton Washington, and Kenny Wilkins to vie for playing time on the nose, with Ash the likely winner of that battling trio.  Campbell should see a sizable jump in his production, but I think the defense overall is going to dip a little bit because of the loss of Martin and, to a lesser extent, Van Bergen.

Prediction: Starting nose tackle; 35 tackles, 3.5 sacks

Poll results: Campbell won 57% of the vote for the #7 spot.

2012 Season Countdown: #8 Patrick Omameh

Patrick Omameh

Name: Patrick Omameh
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 305 lbs.
High school: Columbus (OH) St. Francis DeSales
Position: Offensive guard
Class: Redshirt senior
Jersey number: #65
Last year: I ranked Omameh #7 and said he would be Second Team All-Big Ten.  He started 13 games at right guard.

Omameh started every game last year, and while he wasn’t quite as good as I expected, the offensive line did fairly well.  He was named to Phil Steele’s midseason All-Big Ten Second Team, but he struggled with his pulling, especially early in the year.  As the season went along and Michigan seemed to use more spread plays, Omameh appeared to get more comfortable with the footwork that offensive line coach Darrell Funk was using.

Omameh enters 2012 as a fourth-year starter at right guard.  He has experience in Al Borges’s offense now and should pick up where he left off in the second half of 2011, paving the way for both Fitzgerald Toussaint and Denard Robinson to gain over 1,000 yards.  His primary backup is redshirt freshman Chris Bryant, who is a good drive blocker but needs work on his pass sets.  I think Bryant is going to be a good player, but he might be a year away from being effective . . . and aside from him, there are just true freshmen or walk-ons.  The loss of Omameh for any significant period of time could seriously derail Michigan’s rushing offense with the question mark at left guard and a new starter at center.  I hate to predict the same thing as last year when I was wrong, but I think that Omameh will step up his performance another notch this season.

Prediction: Starting right guard; Second Team All-Big Ten

2012 Season Countdown: #9 Blake Countess

Blake Countess

Name: Blake Countess
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 180 lbs.
High school: Olney (MD) Good Counsel
Position: Cornerback
Class: Sophomore
Jersey number: #18
Last year: I ranked Countess #59 and said he would be a backup cornerback.  He started six games and 44 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 6 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble.

Countess parlayed a series of nagging Troy Woolfolk injuries into a starting cornerback job, and performed well enough to keep that job once Woolfolk was close to full strength again.  I thought that Countess would have to wait a little longer (until, say, 2012) to take over one of the cornerback spots, but it happened almost immediately.  For the most part, he performed well and turned into Michigan’s best bet for a shut-down corner in the last several years.  He did get torched against Ohio State and was beaten for a touchdown in the Sugar Bowl, but overall, he had a pretty good season for a true freshman.  ESPN and the Big Ten Network each named him to the league’s all-freshman team.

Michigan’s entire secondary returns in 2012, including the corner on the opposite side, J.T. Floyd.  Countess plays the field side, which is usually reserved for a guy with a little more speed . . . but the coaches have also mentioned that Countess is the more physical corner of the two.  At a pretty solid 180 lbs., Countess has the strength to play press man coverage and support the run with equal aplomb.  He didn’t have any interceptions last season, but he did steal a pass from Devin Gardner to Jeremy Jackson in the spring game.  The two corners might be the second-best duo in the Big Ten, and either one could earn all-conference honors of some sort.  There isn’t much depth at the cornerback spots now that Terrence Talbott and Tamani Carter (the latter of whom was a free safety but could have played corner in a pinch) have left the team.  If Countess goes down for a significant period of time, we might see Courtney Avery bump out from the slot corner position or see some snaps from 162 lb. true freshman Terry Richardson.  Avery could hack it out there, but after that, things get very shaky.  Recent injuries to Floyd and Woolfolk notwithstanding, it seems like cornerback is a less physically taxing position than some other spots, so hopefully Countess can stay healthy and take the next step toward becoming an All-Big Ten corner.

Prediction: Starting field corner; 55 tackles, 2 interceptions

Poll results: Countess won 81% of the vote for the #9 spot.