Tag: Brandon Minor

Am I expecting too much from Michigan’s running backs?

Brandon Minor was Michigan’s most successful running back of the Rich Rodriguez era.

If you’re a frequent reader, I’m sure you’re aware that I’ve been unhappy with the performance of some of the running backs over the past few seasons.  Due to some recent conversations with fellow fans, I started to wonder: am I expecting too much from Michigan running backs? 

Michael Cox 2010 (6 carries): 35
Michael Shaw 2010 (75 carries): 50, 39, 21
Vincent Smith 2010 (136 carries): 56
Carlos Brown 2009 (81 carries): 90, 41
Michael Cox 2009 (13 carries): 57, 24
Brandon Minor 2009 (96 carries): 55, 32
Denard Robinson 2009 (31 carries): 38, 36
Michael Shaw 2009 (42 carries): 22
Vincent Smith 2009 (48 carries): 37
Sam McGuffie 2008 (118 carries): 29, 26, 21
Brandon Minor 2008 (109 carries): 45, 40, 36, 34, 32, 21, 20
Michael Shaw 2008 (41 carries): 48, 30
Mike Hart 2007 (265 carries): 61, 54, 37, 23, 23
Mike Hart 2006 (318 carries): 54, 42, 33, 23, 23, 22, 21
Mike Hart 2005 (150 carries): 64, 20
Mike Hart 2004 (282 carries): 34, 33, 32, 26
Chris Perry 2003 (338 carries): 63, 41, 30, 27, 25, 21
Chris Perry 2002 (267 carries): 57, 43, 34, 23
B.J. Askew 2001 (199 carries): 30, 30, 25, 20
Anthony Thomas 2000 (319 carries): 68, 61, 54, 35, 32, 28, 25, 21

Chris Howard 1997 (199 carries): 51, 30, 29, 28, 28, 27
Clarence Williams 1996 (202 carries): 32, 30, 26, 21
Tim Biakabutuka 1995 (303 carries): 60, 47, 47, 44, 37, 35, 34, 20, 20

Do those numbers have anything to do with wins?  Probably not.  The same chart as above, overlaid with the wins for each year:

CONCLUSIONS

1. Denard Robinson is awesome, as if you didn’t already know.  He had a 20+ yard run in nine out of the thirteen games he played in 2010.  In the last twenty years, that number has been matched only by Tshimanga Biakabutuka in 1995.

2. Anthony Thomas was more of a big play guy than I thought.  He had at least seven rushes of 50+ yards in his career.

3. The number of carries for Michigan running backs dwindled greatly in the Rodriguez years.  From 1991 to 2007, eight running backs had 250+ carries in a season.  From 2008-2010, the highest number of carries for a running back was Vincent Smith’s 136 in 2010.  Even if you combine the top two running backs from the past three seasons, the highest total is McGuffie/Minor’s 227 back in 2008.

4. As far as Michigan running backs go, Vincent Smith falls at the bottom of the heap when it comes to explosive plays.  In his two seasons at Michigan, he has two 20+ yard runs.  The closest one to Smith is the 2005 version of Mike Hart, who missed several games due to injury and got only 150 carries.  Hart’s 64-yarder and 20-yarder in that year are actually pretty close to Smith’s longest two runs from 2010 – a 56-yard touchdown and a 19-yard run.

5. For being an offensive genius, Rich Rodriguez sure didn’t have a great effect on Michigan’s running backs.  I don’t think there’s any question that Michigan’s best running back during his tenure was Brandon Minor, but Minor (109) split carries pretty evenly with Sam McGuffie (118) in 2008.  That was followed by a 2009 in which no running back carried the ball more than 100 times.  Injuries played a big part in the production (or lack thereof) from Minor, Carlos Brown, McGuffie, Shaw, etc.

6. I’m probably overreacting a little bit to yards per carry.  There are certainly more important aspects to winning football games than simple yards per carry, like turnovers, defense, quarterback play, etc.  For example, Michigan didn’t lose 13 games over the past two seasons just because Vincent Smith has been a mediocre running back – the horrible defense played the biggest role in losing most of those games.  But at the same time, the only players with the same or worse rushing averages than Smith were:

a) the often forgotten Clarence Williams in ’96 on an eight-win team
b) Anthony Thomas in ’99, whose 4.3 yards a carry was a full yard below each of his surrounding seasons
c) Chris Perry’s subpar junior season in ’02
d) Mike Hart’s injury-plagued ’05 year
e) Sam McGuffie’s freshman year in ’08, when he suffered from concussions and a horrible unit around him

SO WHO CARES?

Well, I do. 

But so do defenses.  When teams don’t respect your running back’s ability to make big plays, they can concentrate on stopping the pass.  Or, in the case of Denard Robinson-led teams, they can concentrate on stopping the quarterback.  The lack of a big-play threat to play alongside Robinson in the backfield limits his abilities to be as effective a runner as possible.  Imagine a zone read option offense with Tim Biakabutuka or Tyrone Wheatley standing next to Denard Robinson in the backfield.  Which one do you defend?  Or do you curl up into a fetal position and pretend you pulled a hamstring?

Furthermore, big plays take away the opportunity for a team to bog down going from Point A to Point B.  Long runs aren’t just fun to watch – they serve a purpose.  A guy who moves the ball in small chunks might be a fine running back, but at some point his short gains might force a few punts when the offense fails to get a first down. 

Clearly, a guy like Biakabutuka doesn’t guarantee you a big play every time he starts a new series.  But he can move the ball in large chunks, and his presence opens up the play action passing game and keeps the defense off balance.

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN 2011?

Better running back play.  That’s the bottom line.  Over the last twenty years, Michigan’s running backs have alternated good years with mediocre ones.  On the heels of a poor year from the Wolverines’ backs, it seems Michigan is ready for an upswing in running back production.  Hoke seems committed to running the ball like Michigan used to do, and unlike a season such as 2008, the offensive line should be decent, despite losing a couple senior starters in Steve Schilling and Perry Dorrestein.  Whether it’s Michael Shaw, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Stephen Hopkins, or someone else, the starting running back in 2011 should be better than in 2010.

Explanation of the Countdown

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Brandon Graham was Michigan’s MVP last year.

As I started the 2010 Season Countdown, I assumed (wrongly) that people would remember the series from last year. But after fielding several questions on the topic, I realized that . . . well . . . nobody really read my blog last year. This still isn’t an extremely popular destination, but hey, 1,700+ hits for a full-time teacher and coach isn’t bad.

On to the explanation . . .

The countdown is designed to highlight each player and offer some opinions and analysis on each one. They are listed in order of “Least Important” to “Most Important” for the 2010 season. In other words, Christian Pace is at the bottom of the list because he’s the most likely to redshirt. Therefore, his impact on Michigan’s 2010 performance will be almost nil.

Last year’s 2009 Season Countdown had the following players in the top five:

1. Brandon Graham
2. Tate Forcier
3. Donovan Warren
4. Obi Ezeh
5. Brandon Minor

Now imagine if Brandon Graham had been lost to injury – Michigan would have lost 10.5 sacks and its defensive leader, and perhaps former walk-on Will Heininger would have drawn into the lineup. More likely, Ryan Van Bergen would have moved to defensive end full-time and Renaldo Sagesse, Greg Banks, or Will Campbell would have played 3-tech defensive tackle. Yeah . . . trading in Brandon Graham for Renaldo Sagesse – albeit a serviceable player – scares me, too.

Think about this: if Tate Forcier had been lost to injury and Denard Robinson had made the same number of passing attempts (281), Robinson’s 12% interception rate would have translated to approximately thirty-three (33!) interceptions. Michigan fans would have been clamoring for Nick Sheridan.

Without Warren (and Boubacar Cissoko, who got booted off the team), imagine potentially having J.T. Floyd and Teric Jones as your starting corners. Yikes!

It turns out, Obi Ezeh was injured in 2009, which partly caused him to have his worst season as a starter. In his stead, Michigan played redshirt sophomore, 206 lb. Kevin Leach.

I probably overestimated Brandon Minor’s importance to the team, since there were other running backs to pick up the slack. I still maintain that Minor was Michigan’s best back for the past two seasons, but the drop-off between Minor and Carlos Brown isn’t nearly as significant as, say, Brandon Graham to Will Heininger or from Forcier’s 13 interceptions to Robinson’s estimated 33 picks.

So I’m presenting the 2010 Season Countdown. On average, one player will be revealed each day until the beginning of the season, and the #1 guy is – in my estimation – the most important player for Michigan’s success this coming season.

2010 NFL Draft Preview

Brandon Graham attempting to kill Tim Hiller

Brandon Graham – DE/OLB
Graham is certain to be Michigan’s highest drafted player, projected by most “experts” as a mid-1st to early-2nd round pick. At 6’1″ and 268 lbs., he’s likely too short to play defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. There are very few 4-3 teams who like to play undersized ends like Graham. He’s more likely to be drafted to play outside linebacker by a team that runs a 3-4 scheme. Luckily for him, there has been a recent uptick in the number of teams who run base 3-4 fronts. He has excellent straight-line speed and benches 495 lbs., according to Michigan strength coach Mike Barwis. He suffered from a lack of conditioning and discipline early in his career at Michigan, but the last two years have seen Graham turn into a leader on and off the field. The effort level is there now in a way that it wasn’t when he was a freshman and sophomore.
Projection and potential destinations: 1st round between picks 12-29 (Miami, Seattle, New England, Green Bay, Arizona, New York Jets)

Donovan Warren – CB/S
After Graham, nobody is guaranteed to get drafted. Warren hurt himself with a couple slow 40 times, although his game speed was better than the reported 4.68 he ran at the NFL Combine. He’s run so slow, in fact, that some teams have suggested Warren might fit better as a safety in the NFL. Warren left Michigan after his junior season, but his production was less than one might expect from a “shutdown” Michigan corner. He’s a solid tackler with average ball skills. He offers no additional skills as a return man and, for the most part, doesn’t have the athleticism to be a big threat on interception returns. His upside is low, but he performed well enough on the field (although not necessarily in workouts) to warrant a late round pick. If he plays cornerback in the NFL, I think it has to be for a team that plays a good deal of Cover 2. Otherwise, he’s a free safety in the making.
Projection and potential destinations: 6th round (Tampa Bay, Chicago, Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England, Minnesota)

Zoltan Mesko – P
Mesko is generally considered to be the second-best punter in the draft. He gets excellent hangtime, which prevents him from outkicking his coverage. I always wondered if the rugby-style punts that Rich Rodriguez employs would hurt Mesko’s ability to be a straight dropback punter, and for whatever reason, his workouts for pro teams have reportedly been subpar. Those two things might not be related, but it’s interesting to consider. He was voted captain of Michigan’s team in 2009, so he’s likely not a Mike Vanderjagt-like bonehead of a specialist. His lack of kickoff experience might hurt him in the eyes of some general managers. On the plus side, he did 16 reps on the bench press at 225 lbs.
Projection and potential destinations: 7th round (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Miami, Denver)

Brandon Minor – RB
You will find no bigger fan of Brandon Minor than me. I love the way he runs the ball, his power, and the way he finishes runs. He also has underrated speed. Unfortunately, he rarely stayed healthy at Michigan, which hurt his production and surely NFL personnel people have flagged him for his injuries. Minor averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in his final two college seasons and he’s an excellent pass blocker. I don’t think NFL teams will spend a draft pick on a guy who spent so much time on the sideline, but if he somehow stays healthy, Minor is the type of guy who I could see having a 10-year NFL career. He reminds me of former Tennessee Volunteer and Detroit Lion Shawn Bryson, although Bryson had better speed.
Projection: Undrafted

Stevie Brown – SS
Brown came to Michigan as a cornerback/free safety tweener. By his senior year in 2009, he was an undersized strongside linebacker because he couldn’t cover in open space. He’s too indecisive to play free safety in the NFL and too small to play linebacker, but he could be a special teams contributor and backup strong safety on an NFL roster. His ball skills are somewhat lacking, but he ran a 4.55 at Michigan’s pro day and he brings some kick coverage skills to the table. He is a solid tackler in limited space and he can be an effective blitzer, so I see him as an in-the-box safety type.
Projection and potential destinations: Undrafted (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona, New York Jets, Baltimore)

Mark Ortmann – OT
Ortmann has excellent size at 6’6″ and 295 lbs. He was a solid but unspectacular starter at left guard and left tackle in his final two years. He has long arms and decent mobility, and I always thought Ortmann would turn out to be an above average player. However, he’s not the mauler that NFL general managers might be looking for. Even mediocre Michigan linemen have always been given a shot at the next level, so I expect Ortmann to get some looks. But ultimately he lacks the mobility and athleticism to play left tackle, and he lacks the strength and size to play right tackle. I could see him hanging around for a few years on practice squads or as a backup, but I don’t see him being an NFL starter at any point.
Projection: Undrafted

Carlos Brown – RB
Brown was one of the most hyped members of Michigan’s 2006 class due to his speed, but the production on the field never really matched the hype. While he has the speed to outrun even NFL players, Brown rarely makes it past the second level of defenders. In 20+ years of watching Michigan football, I can’t remember a running back that seemingly went down with as little contact. Brown stops his feet on contact and almost never gains yardage on second effort. He does have good hands and could be a third down back, but to me, he’s not a first- or second-string back. His ceiling seems to be as an end-of-the-bench, situational back who might be able to return an occasional kickoff.
Projection: Undrafted

David Moosman – OG
At 6’5″ and 292 lbs., Moosman is a little small to be an offensive guard in the NFL. He needs to pack on some weight to have a chance. Moosman started 23 of his last 24 games at Michigan and split time between guard and center. Unfortunately, the team’s struggles with him at center hint that a future snapping the ball might be out of the question. I think he’s strictly a guard prospect. Moosman is decently athletic and was rarely beaten at the guard position. He’s not someone who will wow you with his strength, but he has solid technique and he battles. To have a chance at sticking in the NFL, he needs to play for a zone running team like Indianapolis, Atlanta, or Washington.
Projection: Undrafted

Players are listed in order of their likelihood to be drafted, as determined by yours truly.

Ohio State 21, Michigan 10

Brandon Graham was the best player on the field.

• Brandon Graham had a great game. He is perhaps the player from the senior class that I will miss most. He dominated his side of the line repeatedly, ending the game with a sack amongst 4 or 5 tackles for loss.
• I really thought Brandon Minor would play, but he was in street clothes. His inside running was missed in this game, as the running game was forced to play the third- and fourth-string running backs (Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith) with Carlos Brown also limited.
• Vincent Smith might be Michigan’s running back of the future. He doesn’t have the speed to be a game-breaker, but he gains yards consistently, runs tough for his size, and makes decisive cuts. I was wrong about him being unready to play this year.
• The defense played extremely well in this game. For the most part, Michigan didn’t allow the big play. They did allow the 29-yard TD by Brandon Saine, but OSU picked on walk-on DE Will Heininger on that play.
• J.T. Floyd got picked on and was beaten a couple times. Fortunately, OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor was horribly inaccurate on the two deep balls he threw. I still maintain that Floyd’s future should be at safety, but I liked the move by the coaches to move Troy Woolfolk back to safety and re-insert Floyd at cornerback. It may not have helped Michigan significantly, but it certainly didn’t hurt.
• Speaking of Pryor, I’ve been thinking this all season but had no reason to mention OSU sooner – why does a 6’5″, 230 pound, speedy guy run like such a pansy? He runs through arm tackles, but anytime someone gets a chance to tackle him solidly, he wusses out. He either stops moving his feet and collapses into the fetal position, or he prances out of bounds. For example, when he scrambled early in the game and Steve Brown came up to pop him near the sideline, both players bounced off each other, Pryor gathered himself and had a chance to gain two more yards, and he . . . side-stepped out of bounds.
• Tate Forcier had a horrible game. Ohio State didn’t do anything too confusing defensively. Forcier just made bad reads and bad throws. And that fumble on the opening offensive series was inexcuseable. Not only did Forcier retreat into his own end zone, but then he didn’t tuck the ball away when he scrambled. He’s been lucky all year that his lack of ball security didn’t cost him more, but it showed up in the biggest game of the year.
• I liked the wrinkle where Denard Robinson started in the backfield, shifted to wide receiver, and ran a fly pattern. I did not like the facts that a) Forcier underthrew him and b) Denard was interfered with by the cornerback and it wasn’t called. Denard was clearly being pushed while the ball was in the air, and it wasn’t an instance where both players were jostling each other. That was a textbook interference call and the officials blew it.
• I did not like the modified pistol formation. Out of shotgun, Shaw lined up as the deep back with a fullback to either side of Forcier. It led the defense to the play each time, and Michigan didn’t show a play to complement it.
• Roy Roundtree looks like he might be the next Michigan wide receiver to wear the #1 jersey.
• For the love of all that is good, can Michigan please install the sprint counter draw? It worked against Michigan for the thousandth time over the last several years, where the shotgun QB takes the snap and rolls toward the running back, who pretends to block and then takes the handoff going in the opposite direction. Ohio State, Michigan State, Oregon, and Purdue have all torched Michigan with that play, and those are just the times I can think of off the top of my head. I have never seen Michigan run that play, but it works every time against us.
• I will miss Brandon Minor, Brandon Graham, Greg Mathews, Mark Ortmann, David Moosman, and Steve Brown. All of these players are good to great college players, and it’s disappointing that their careers coincided with such a huge reconstruction project for the program. They might have been here during a couple bad years, but they weren’t the reasons for these two losing seasons.
• Go Blue!

Illinois 38, Michigan 13

Carlos Brown taken down on first contact? Inconceivable!
Nope…wait a minute…yeah, that’s conceivable.