2014 Season Predictions

Tag: Dennis Norfleet


30Aug 2014
Uncategorized 8 comments

2014 Season Predictions

Devin Gardner

Here’s a link (LINK) to a review of my 2013 season predictions if you like to look into the past.

As for the future, here we go:

Leading Rusher
I’m backtracking a little bit here. It seemed like De’Veon Smith was getting a little more hype at the beginning of the summer, but now Brady Hoke is saying that Derrick Green would be getting the first carry against Appalachian State. I have always thought that Green had more upside because of his superior speed, so hopefully the line can block well enough to get him to the second or third level.
Prediction: Green, 700 yards

Leading Receiver
The best receiver on the team is clearly Devin Funchess, and I think this is a pretty obvious pick, barring injury. The only real question appears to be whether he’ll break the 1,000-yard barrier. Offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier likes to run the ball, and he seems to like to spread out the ball among his receivers.
Prediction: Funchess, 950 yards

Leading Tackler
Michigan rotates linebackers a lot, so I don’t think the tackle totals for any one player will be astronomical. It looks like Desmond Morgan will rotate in with both Joe Bolden and Jake Ryan, and the combination of James Ross and Royce Jenkins-Stone looks pretty neck-and-neck right now, too. Throw in a dose of Ben Gedeon, and nobody racks up the tackles. Last year’s leading tackler was cornerback Raymon Taylor, but Michigan’s tighter coverage will hopefully prevent as many completions in front of the corners.
Prediction: Ryan, 75 tackles

Hit the jump for the rest of the predictions.

Leading Sacker
Strongside end Brennen Beyer has never been much of a pass rusher, and the edge rushing of Jake Ryan is not as much of a threat with Michigan’s move to the Over front. I think the clear selection here is weakside end Frank Clark, who turned on the jets in the second half of 2013.
Prediction: Clark, 8 sacks

Leading Interceptor
Tighter man seems to lead to more picks for safeties, because they play over the top of quarterbacks trying to fit balls into tight windows, and the safeties get some bounces, too. I’m tempted to pick Jarrod Wilson for that reason, but I’ll stick with First Team All-Big Ten selection Blake Countess, who had 6 picks last year.
Prediction: Countess, 5 interceptions

All-Big Ten First Team
Prediction: Devin Gardner, Jake Ryan, Blake Countess

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Nobody seems likely to pile up touchdown after touchdown, so I’ll choose Funchess here.
Prediction: Funchess

Breakout Offensive Player
Michigan will probably continue to struggle to run the ball, although I do expect the running game to improve a little. Derrick Green looks like a good choice, but I might wait until 2015 for him, once the offensive line has some experience and age. Instead, I’ll go with a guy who has been playing quite a bit on special teams but appears #1 on the depth chart at slot receiver. I have some questions about Dennis Norfleet’s hands, but he could be a dynamo in the slot if he can catch some short passes and get into space. He won’t light the world on fire, but he could be fun to watch.
Prediction: Norfleet

Breakout Defensive Player
This is a very difficult choice, because I think several players are going to take large steps forward this season. I think Jarrod Wilson will turn into the ball hawk that Michigan fans have been looking for at the safety position. I also think Willie Henry is going to be very tough for opponents to handle at the 3-tech position. I don’t like to do this, but I’ll go with the bandwagon pick in freshman Jabrill Peppers. The nickel corner position is involved in a lot of different things, and Peppers seems like a guy who’s quick/strong enough to blitz effective, speedy enough to cover, and stout enough to stop the run.
Prediction: Peppers

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Michigan fans want big things from the offensive line, but I don’t think they’ll get them with Ben Braden at right tackle. He’s huge, but I think he’s still a year or two away from actually being good. He’s stiff in pass protection and teams are going to confuse him with stunts. The left side looks to me like the strong side.
Prediction: Braden

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
I think Michigan fans are going to be disappointed in Ondre Pipkins by the end of the year. He was a 5-star recruit (to ESPN), but he’s coming off an ACL tear and didn’t look great before the injury. It would have been beneficial for him to redshirt either this year or last, but the injury came too late in the season to apply for a medical scholarship in 2013.
Prediction: Pipkins

The Big Finish
August 30 vs. Appalachian State: WIN. Michigan has some extra incentive, since . . . you know . . . that thing happened in 2007.

September 6 at Notre Dame: WIN. Notre Dame is going through some turmoil, probably missing some starters, moving to a different defense, and a little overrated, in my opinion.

September 13 vs. Miami (OH): WIN. The RedHawks went 0-12 last year. Yikes.

September 20 vs. Utah: WIN. This might be a close game, but I think Michigan will pull it out.

September 27 vs. Minnesota: WIN. The Gophers scare me a little bit this season, and they have been improving. I’ll stick with the Wolverines since the game is in Ann Arbor.

October 4 at Rutgers: WIN. If nothing else, Michigan will win this with their defense. I can see this type of game being frustrating for Michigan offensively.

October 11 vs. Penn State: WIN. I think the Nittany Lions might be another year away from being very good, so Michigan wins it because the game is in Ann Arbor.

October 25 at Michigan State: LOSS. Michigan’s offensive line woes will once again frustrate Michigan, but this is a game I could see coming down to the final play.

November 1 vs. Indiana: WIN. Practicing against a little more up-tempo offense might help Michigan’s defense against the Hoosiers, and they also lost quarterback Tre Roberson to transfer.

November 8 at Northwestern: WIN. Northwestern is stout up the middle on defense, but Michigan can beat them on the edges. And the losses of quarterback Kain Colter and running back Venric Mark do not bode well for the Wildcats’ chances.

November 22 vs. Maryland: WIN. I think Michigan has the athletes to match up with Maryland’s wide receivers, who are dangerous nonetheless.

November 29 at Ohio State: LOSS. The addition of Larry Johnson as the defensive line coach in Columbus is the clincher for me in this one. I feel like the Buckeyes will be able to control the line of scrimmage, and the game is in the terrible state of Ohio.

Final record: 10-2.

2Aug 2014
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2014 Season Countdown: #24 Dennis Norfleet

Dennis Norfleet

Name: Dennis Norfleet
Height: 5’7″
Weight: 169 lbs.
High school: Detroit (MI) King
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #23
Last year: I ranked Norfleet #21 and said he would be the starting kickoff and punt returner with 25- and 11-yard return averages, respectively. He returned 40 kickoffs for 938 yards (23.4 yards/return), 3 punts for -1 yard (-0.3 yards/return), caught 6 passes for 46 yards (7.7 yards/catch), and ran the ball 4 times for 53 yards (13.3 yards/carry).

I had high hopes for Norfleet coming into 2013 that he could become more disciplined about following his blocks, more disciplined about catching punts, more disciplined about running routes and catching the ball, more . . . okay, this is turning into a broken record. If Norfleet were a prospect coming out of high school, I would be calling him raw. He often seems to be moving a tad too fast for his own good, until he sees a gap of daylight that could send him to the endzone; at that point, he’s either a tad too slow to beat the defenders or not quite strong enough to step through a tackle. Watching Norfleet is both an exercise in excitement and a test of how one handles frustration.

I will continue to insist that Norfleet is one of Michigan’s most exciting players with the ball in his hands, right up there with Devin Gardner and Devin Funchess. Some newcomers might reach or surpass that level this season, but Norfleet can shimmy and shake, and he can accelerate like nobody else on the squad. The problem comes in getting him the ball. He had a shot at the punt return job last season, but he lost it early to Jeremy Gallon after looking shaky against Central Michigan and Notre Dame. Now the door is wide open for people like Jabrill Peppers and Jourdan Lewis. The same can perhaps be said for the kick return job, where Peppers will probably also get a shot to supplant Norfleet. Former offensive coordinator Al Borges got Norfleet the ball in a variety of ways, so it will be interesting to see whether new O.C. Doug Nussmeier also uses those quick pitches, jet sweeps, etc. As far as I know, Nussmeier has never utilized a scatback/receiver like Norfleet before, but he may never have had someone like him at his disposal. Regardless, I think Norfleet will continue to see time on returns and get an occasional touch on offense.

Prediction: Starting kickoff returner, backup punt returner, backup wide receiver

27Dec 2013
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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Special Teams

Kansas State returner Tramaine Thompson is dangerous with the ball in his hands.

MICHIGAN
Starters: The Wolverines are in pretty bad shape when it comes to special teams, but it could be worse. Fifth year senior placekicker Brendan Gibbons has been ruled out of the bowl game with a groin injury, and senior punter Will Hagerup has been suspended for the entire season, so all the kicking duties will be up to junior Matt Wile (6’2″, 216 lbs.). Wile is pretty experienced for being a backup punter and kicker, but when it comes to kicking field goals, he hasn’t been in many pressure situations. Wile is 1/3 on field goals this year, 5/5 on extra points, and averages 40.6 yards/punt. He’s been the kickoff guy all year and gets a 49.3% touchback rate. Sophomore Dennis Norfleet (5’7″, 169 lbs.) has 36 kickoff returns for 850 yards and a 23.6-yard average. Fifth year senior Jeremy Gallon (5’8″, 184 lbs.) and senior Drew Dileo (5’10”, 180 lbs.) have combined for 12 punt returns and 76 yards, so they’re not much of a threat.
Backups: Redshirt freshman Kenny Allen (6’3″, 226 lbs.) will be the backup kicker and punter, and he has 1 punt this year for 51 yards. Dileo has averaged 19.2 yards on 5 returns, and redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson (6’3″, 196 lbs.) has averaged 18 yards on 2 returns.

KANSAS STATE
Starters: The Wildcats have two excellent returners. One is fifth year senior punt returner Tramaine Thompson (5’8″, 167 lbs.), who has averaged 20.2 yards/return this year with a long of 79 yards; teams respect him so much that they’ve only given him a chance to return 9 punts. Junior Tyler Lockett (5’11”, 175 lbs.) is the kick returner with a 25.5-yard average, and while he hasn’t yet returned a kickoff for a touchdown in 2013, he had 2 scores in each of the past two seasons. Redshirt junior Mark Krause (5’11”, 218 lbs.) averages 41.3 yards/punt and has landed 17 inside the 20-yard line. Redshirt sophomore Jack Cantele (6’0″, 193 lbs.) is 11/13 on field goals and 40/41 on extra points, but he was injured prior to KSU’s final regular season game and may not be back for the bowl game.
Backups: Thompson has returned 2 kickoffs this year, but one was for a 96-yard touchdown. Backup kicker Ian Patterson (5’11”, 233 lbs.), a redshirt freshman, is 2/3 on field goals and 8/8 on extra points; he has also taken over kickoff duties, where he has a touchback rate almost twice as high as Cantele’s.

THE TAKEAWAY
The Wolverines haven’t been particularly strong on special teams under Brady Hoke, but they haven’t been terrible, either. They did block a punt and return it for a touchdown against Central Michigan, and the game-tying end-of-regulation field goal against Northwestern was the #4 play in the Big Ten this year, according to BTN Live. Unfortunately, battle-tested Brendan Gibbons is out, and Wile has been erratic as a kicker and as a punter. Michigan’s return games have been exciting but fruitless with Norfleet, Gallon, and Dileo. Meanwhile, Kansas State has a couple all-conference-caliber returners in Lockett and Thompson, and Cantele is a solid kicker if healthy. The Wolverines did allow a punt return touchdown to South Carolina’s Ace Sanders in last year’s bowl game, so they’ve been susceptible to special teams breakdowns at times. Wile might be able to negate Lockett’s return abilities because he’s pretty good at kicking touchbacks, and Michigan has some aggressive players on punt coverage, but overall, this is looking like an advantage for . . .

ADVANTAGE: Kansas State

25Nov 2013
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Michigan vs. Iowa Awards

Brennen Beyer

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Dennis Norfleet. The kid is small but feisty and has big-play potential. Offensive coordinator Al Borges used him early in the year as a tip-off to the fact that Norfleet was about to get the ball. Once everyone figured that out, Borges just stopped using Norfleet altogether. So he’s exciting enough to put him on the field to get him the ball . . . but he’s not exciting enough to use as a decoy or even a situational player. But hey, Jeremy Jackson has averaged 11.4 yards/catch in four years and never scored a touchdown or had a play longer than 22 yards, so let’s keep him out there.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Jeremy Jackson. He has no purpose. Bizarro Fred Jackson says “He’s like LaTerryal Savoy but slower.”

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Jake Ryan. This is more just a way to say that I’m glad he’s back. I still don’t think he’s 100%, but the guy is a playmaker and a heavy hitter. He had 5 tackles, 1 pass breakup, and a hit on quarterback Jake Rudock that turned into a 7-yard interception touchdown for defensive end Brennen Beyer.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Courtney Avery. It’s rare that players regress throughout their careers, but Avery would be one of those examples. He was overmatched as a freshman, played really well as a sophomore, took a step back as a junior, and now seems like a weak link in the secondary. The coaches moved him from nickel corner to safety in order to push guys like sophomore Jarrod Wilson, and while Wilson has been far from perfect, I think he’s a clear step up from Avery. I liked the kid better when he was a slot corner and not one of the last lines of defense.

Play of the game . . . Brennen Beyer’s interception return for a touchdown. On Iowa’s first offensive play, Jake Ryan came on a blitz and hit Rudock as he was releasing the ball, resulting in a pick six for Beyer. It was the most exciting play of the day for the Wolverines, who couldn’t create much of anything on offense. Honorable mention goes to Devin Gardner’s scrambling 2-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Williams, where Gardner looked like he was going to take a gain of zero yards before stepping back and casually tossing the ball to Williams, who had been let go by defenders coming up to stop the run. It was Williams’s first career catch and first career touchdown, and I wouldn’t argue with somebody who said that was the play of the day.

MVP of the game . . . Raymon Taylor. Taylor had 8 solo tackles (9 total), 1 diving interception, and what was technically a fumble recovery on Iowa’s first half-ending botched field goal snap. Taylor should have picked up the ball and run for what could have been a touchdown, but he still had nice coverage the entire game, tackled quickly, and was just a hair late to notch a couple pass breakups.

14Oct 2013
Uncategorized 15 comments

Michigan vs. Penn State Awards

Devin Funchess had 4 catches for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Dennis Norfleet. If Norfleet’s going to be a slot receiver, he needs to be on the field. And not just in special packages where it’s a near certainty that he’ll get the ball. I somewhat understand not putting him out there a ton if he’s your full-time returner, but now that Drew Dileo has taken over the punt return duties, Norfleet’s duties have essentially been cut in half. Michigan needs to spend more time in the spread and less time with two or three tight ends and a fullback. And if that happens, Michigan will have to spell some guys with the likes of Norfleet.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . a fullback. Whether it’s Joe Kerridge or Sione Houma, I don’t really care about whether this team employs a fullback anymore. The offensive line is too porous to make a fullback relevant, and Kerridge isn’t a threat to run or catch the ball. His role is to lead block on run plays that result in zero yards. There’s just no point. Spread teams out horizontally and hope that Toussaint can find some alleys.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Delonte Hollowell. The junior cornerback has lost playing time this year to freshmen Channing Stribling and Jourdan Lewis, but Hollowell is the feistiest of the bunch. I’ve never been impressed with his athleticism or ball skills, but he is physical and seems to be in position most of the time. At the end of regulation, I would have preferred to have seen Hollowell in there instead of Stribling.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . Channing Stribling. Stribling’s a freshmen, and I’m fairly on him. But the bottom line is that the game moves very quickly for true freshmen, especially in clutch situations. In my opinion, he’s not the guy you want in there during crunch time. He mistimed a couple jumps and flat-out whiffed on a couple passes completed to Brandon Felder and Allen Robinson, allowing the Nittany Lions to march down the field and tie the game. Stribling has to take some responsibility for that, but so do the coaches who chose to put him out there.

Play of the game . . . Frank Clark’s fumble return for a touchdown. It wasn’t just the return, either. Defensive end Keith Heitzman got some great penetration to slow up Penn State running back Zach Zwinak, who cut back only to be tackled by linebacker James Ross III. Ross reached across with his right hand to punch out the ball, Clark scooped it up, dodged PSU quarterback Christian Hackenberg, and raced 24 yards for the score. Prior to that play, Michigan was down 21-10 and looking for a spark, and Clark helped to provide it.

MVP of the game . . . Devin Funchess. I was very close to picking Devin Gardner for this award, but Gardner’s two interceptions gave Penn State short fields that resulted in 14 points. Instead, I’m picking the tight end who had 4 catches for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, from 59 and 37 yards, respectively. Gardner has had a hard time hitting anyone over the top except Funchess, who has proven to be more of a deep threat than wide receivers Jeremy Gallon or Jehu Chesson.