Review of 2013 Season Predictions

Tag: Fitzgerald Toussaint


30Dec 2013
Uncategorized 22 comments

Review of 2013 Season Predictions

Jeremy Gallon set several records this season.

Here’s a link to my 2013 Season Predictions, which were posted at the end of August. This might be more fun for me than for you, but it’s interesting to me to see how things played out this year.

LEADING RUSHER
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 900 yards
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 658 yards
Thoughts: The offensive line was worse than anyone expected it to be, and Toussaint struggled to average 3.5 yards/carry. The next highest total was Devin Gardner’s 483 yards.

LEADING RECEIVER
Prediction: Jeremy Gallon, 1100 yards
Actual: Jeremy Gallon, 1373 yards
Thoughts: Gallon had an outstanding season and goes down in the record books with the top yardage output by any receiver in Michigan history, surpassing Braylon Edwards’s 1,330 yards in 2004. I expected him to have a very good season due to the Gardner-Gallon chemistry, but this was more explosive than anyone probably envisioned.

LEADING TACKLER
Prediction: James Ross III, 90 tackles
Actual: Raymon Taylor, 86 tackles
Thoughts: It’s bad news when a cornerback leads the team in tackles, especially when that tackle total is so high. Opposing quarterbacks completed a lot of passes in front Taylor. Ross missed the second half of the Iowa game and the entire Ohio State game, so I’m pretty confident that he would have led the team in tackles if he had remained healthy.

LEADING SACKER
Prediction: Frank Clark, 8 sacks
Actual: Frank Clark and Cameron Gordon, 5 sacks (tie)
Thoughts: Clark started off slowly before turning on the jets a little bit in the middle of the season, but his season was somewhat of a disappointment considering all the offseason hype. Gordon started off quickly but lost some playing time once Jake Ryan returned midseason.

ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Taylor Lewan and Jeremy Gallon
Actual: Taylor Lewan was chosen by the Coaches and the Media. Devin Funchess and Blake Countess were chosen by the Media only.
Thoughts: Lewan was an obvious choice, and Gallon was robbed after conference finishes of #2 in receptions, #2 in yards, and #3 in touchdowns. Funchess earned his accolades as a tight end despite playing mostly at wide receiver, and Countess might be the Comeback Player of the Year in the conference after tearing his ACL in 2012. Nobody else on the team really had an argument to earn First Team honors.

LEADING SCORER (NON-QB, NON-KICKER)
Prediction: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 12 touchdowns
Actual: Fitzgerald Toussaint, 13 touchdowns
Thoughts: Toussaint ended up scoring 78 points on 13 rushing touchdowns, while I thought he would score 10 rushing and 2 receiving touchdowns, leaving him with 72 points. Gallon was next with 54 total points.

BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jehu Chesson
Actual: Jake Butt
Thoughts: Chesson had an okay year with several devastating blocks, some nice plays on special teams coverage, and 15 catches for 221 yards and 1 touchdown. But I think Butt deserves this award as he improved as a blocker and became a reliable receiving target with 20 catches for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns.

BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction:
 James Ross
Actual: I don’t even know who to pick here. Perhaps the answer here is Blake Countess, but I don’t believe I even thought of him as being in the running since he was a starter as a true freshman in 2011. You could probably make an argument for Ross, Cam Gordon, or Frank Clark, who are the three guys I mentioned considering back in August.
Thoughts: Ross nearly led the team in tackles and might have surpassed 100 if he had been healthy. Gordon and Clark tied for the team lead in sacks. I don’t really see any other legitimate options here, although we saw glimpses of what Chris Wormley, Willie Henry, Ben Gedeon, and Jarrod Wilson can do.

MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction: Jack Miller
Actual: Jack Miller?
Thoughts: Again, I’m not sure whom to pick here. Miller started the first several games at center before being benched, never to see the field again. There was lots of disappointment to go around due to the underachieving offense (Devin Gardner, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Taylor Lewan, Kyle Kalis, even Devin Funchess). I guess Miller wins because he was really the only starter to get permanently benched, but I’m open to arguments.

MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Prediction:
 Jarrod Wilson
Actual: Courtney Avery
Thoughts: This is another tough choice, but Wilson made some nice plays early in the season. Avery proved to be kind of a lost cause at cornerback and safety, where he didn’t really make one significant play all season except half of a sack against Michigan State. Otherwise, he was invisible except when guys were running past him. He went from a good nickel corner in 2011 to an okay one in 2012 to a liability at two different positions in 2013.

FINAL RECORD
Central Michigan:
Win
Notre Dame: Win
Akron: Win
UConn: Win
Minnesota: Win
Penn State: Win Loss
Indiana: Win
Michigan State: Win Loss
Nebraska: Loss
Northwestern: Win
Iowa: Win Loss
Ohio State: Loss
—————————–
Prediction: 10-2
Actual: 7-5 (7-6 after bowl game) 

19Dec 2013
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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Preview: Running Backs

John Hubert (#33) is essentially Kansas State’s only running back.

MICHIGAN
Starters: Late in the season, freshman Derrick Green (5’11”, 240 lbs.) essentially took over the starting role and bowled his way to 265 yards and 2 touchdowns on 82 carries, a 3.2-yard average. Green looks to be the guy, but really, any of three players could garner the bulk of the attempts. He has some giddyup, but mostly, he’s a between-the-tackles runner who won’t make many people miss. The other likely option is fifth year senior Fitzgerald Toussaint (5’10”, 200 lbs.), a scatback type who has been slowed a tiny bit since a broken ankle suffered in 2012. He’s started most of the games this year and has 183 carries for 646 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, plus 17 catches for 203 yards. Toussaint has the best big-play ability of the backs and seems to have taken on more of the third down back type snaps late in the season. The starting fullback is redshirt sophomore Joe Kerridge (6’0″, 238 lbs.), who has 1 carry and 5 catches on the season, mostly playing the role of a lead blocker.
Backups: Freshman De’Veon Smith (5’11”, 224 lbs.) is the main backup after the first two guys, and he’s a ball of churning legs who runs like I imagine a stegosaurus might: slowly but dangerously for anyone trying to bring him down. He has just 22 carries on the year for 110 yards, but his best game came in the regular season finale against Ohio State (7 carries, 57 yards). Redshirt sophomore Justice Hayes (5’10”, 192 lbs.) is mostly a third down back and has spent some time at slot receiver; he has just 1 carry for 7 yards on the year, plus 3 catches for 18 yards. I do not expect to see him much. Sophomore fullback Sione Houma (6’0″, 231 lbs.) has 1 catch for 9 yards and fills in occasionally for Kerridge.

KANSAS STATE
Starter: Fifth year senior John Hubert (5’7″, 191 lbs.) gets the vast majority of the running back carries and will likely surpass 1,000 yards in the bowl game; he currently has 182 carries for 968 yards and 9 touchdowns. He runs with a fair amount of power and quickness and has gone over 900 yards for three consecutive years. Look for Hubert to try to take advantage of cutback lanes out of the pistol, and he’s quick enough to get on the edge with some option looks. The Wolverines are solid against the run, but Hubert presents a challenge and is coming off a 220-yard performance against Kansas. Redshirt freshman Glenn Gronkowski (6’3″, 234 lbs.) is the younger brother of New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski and the starting fullback. He’s rarely used in the running game, but he has 4 catches for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns; his scores have gone for 67, 50, and 29 yards, so he can be dangerous out of the backfield.
Backups: Senior Robert Rose (5’4″, 176 lbs. and no, that’s not a typo) is the only notable backup, but he has 22 carries for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns. Co-starting quarterback Daniel Sams (profiled yesterday) is essentially Hubert’s partner in crime in the backfield.

THE TAKEAWAY
Michigan’s running backs have yet to put fear into anyone this season, and despite a slight improvement in the running game over the past couple contests, the likelihood is small that Michigan blows the doors off KSU on the ground. Of course, much of that is the result of a young, underperforming offensive line. Meanwhile, Hubert has had more room to run than Michigan’s guys, and he has a skill of elusiveness that . . . uh . . . eludes Michigan’s trio of runners. We have seen the Wolverines come out with some innovative game plans in recent years (2008 against Florida, 2013 against South Carolina), but offensive coordinator Al Borges has limited options with what his line can block and what his backs can do. The Wolverines will probably do what they’ve been doing over the past couple games (lots of inside zones, bubble screen draws), and the Wildcats will also probably try to do what they do best and run inside zones and some powers with Hubert and Sams.


ADVANTAGE: Kansas State

23Sep 2013
Uncategorized 15 comments

Michigan at UConn Awards

I like this Willie Henry kid.

Let’s see more of this guy on offense . . . Chris Bryant. Michigan needs to figure out what kind of team they are. Are they a zone team or are they a power/iso team? Personally, I believe their personnel is better suited for a power/iso scheme, which means redshirt sophomore center Jack Miller’s quickness isn’t quite as valuable. If redshirt freshman left guard Graham Glasgow has the ability to snap and make line calls, I would like to see him bump over to center and let redshirt sophomore Bryant step in at left guard. I really believe that power blocks with All-American left tackle Taylor Lewan and Bryant could be deadly, and the poor blocking of the tight ends would be somewhat mitigated by that double-team and the ease of reading the block. Power and iso are very simple blocking schemes.

Let’s see less of this guy on offense . . . Devin Funchess as a blocking tight end. I think Funchess can play H-back, in the slot, run routes, etc. But his blocking at the point of attack, especially the zone stretch, hangs running back Fitzgerald Toussaint out to dry too often. Michigan needs to find a second blocking tight end, whether it’s redshirt junior Jordan Paskorz, freshman Jake Butt, or a walk-on.

Let’s see more of this guy on defense . . . Willie Henry. The redshirt freshman defensive tackle has played pretty well the past two games, and I’m hoping he’s in the process of locking down the backup 3-tech spot. He was my pick for this “award” last week, and I liked what I saw.

Let’s see less of this guy on defense . . . nobody. I thought the defensive rotation was pretty solid. No complaints here.

Play of the game . . . Desmond Morgan’s one-handed interception. When Michigan was trying to ignite a comeback win, they needed a big play on defense. UConn quarterback Chandler Whitmer tried to throw the ball on a line to a receiver on a post, but Morgan got to his drop, leaped up, and reeled in the pass with his right hand. He then tucked the ball in, showed some decent open-field running ability, and brought the ball back 29 yards to the Huskies’ 12-yard line.

MVP of the game . . . Fitzgerald Toussaint. Toussaint was maligned last week for his game against Akron, but there shouldn’t be the same kinds of comments this time. Nobody had a stellar game, but Toussaint had a 35-yard touchdown on an option pitch and a 12-yard zone stretch touchdown. He finished the night with 24 carries for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 1 reception for 7 yards.

22Sep 2013
Uncategorized 101 comments

Michigan 24, UConn 21

Fitzgerald Toussaint had 127 total yards and 2 touchdowns

Okay, now it’s getting ridiculous. Last week I thought Michigan’s performance against Akron was a little bit of a fluke. It was the week after a big win over Notre Dame, Akron was supposed to be a patsy, etc. Now I’m concerned. Michigan should have been champing at the bit to get on the field and destroy a mediocre UConn team, and they were just as lackadaisical. During the half, I thought “This seems like a game where Michigan might reverse the momentum with a defensive or special teams touchdown.” Instead, after getting ball on the kickoff, Devin Gardner fumbled on a quarterback sneak when he ran into his own lineman, which was only slightly less embarrassing than Mark Sanchez’s butt fumble.

Bench Devin Gardner? No, don’t bench Devin Gardner (11/23 passing, 97 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 3 sacks; 19 carries, 64 yards, 1 touchdown). Last night broadcaster Sean McCullough suggested considering a quarterback change, but that’s just a total lack of awareness of Michigan’s situation. Gardner has to get things sorted out, and that’s the bottom line. He needs to take better care of the football and refine his mechanics. Freshman Shane Morris isn’t going to be any better, and the only other options are walk-ons, since presumed backup Russell Bellomy is out for the year with a torn ACL. Gardner’s driving the bus . . . on the edge of a cliff.

The blocking up front is terrible. I’ve seen a lot of criticism of running back Fitzgerald Toussaint lately on blogs, Twitter, etc. lately. I’m really not sure what people expect him to do when he’s supposed to run a zone stretch and the combination of sophomore tight ends A.J. Williams and Devin Funchess (1 catch, 14 yards) are allowing three or four yards of penetration. Or when center Jack Miller chooses not to block the right guy, allowing nose tackles to knife through. Or when Michigan’s offensive line can’t get push on an iso. That’s not to mention the numerous times Connecticut got pressure on Gardner with a three-man rush where guards Graham Glasgow and Kyle Kalis were blocking air. Oh, and left tackle Taylor Lewan had a terrible holding penalty, and Glasgow had his third false start of the year.

Desmond Morgan has been watching Charles Woodson highlight tapes. That one-handed interception by middle linebacker Desmond Morgan (4 tackles, 1 interception) was extremely impressive for a guy whose athleticism has been questioned at times. He had a good drop, leaped into the air, pulled it down, and made a very nice return. Michigan proceeded to score the game-tying touchdown.

Michigan got out-coached. I haven’t said this often, at least not in the Brady Hoke era, but the Huskies’ coaching staff did a better job than the Wolverines’. I don’t even know where to begin. Did defensive coordinator Greg Mattison really expect defensive end/defensive tackle Chris Wormley (1 tackle, .5 tackles for loss, .5 sacks, 1 pass breakup) to cover running back Lyle McCombs on a wheel route? Touchdown. Michigan brings in two extra offensive linemen for a quarterback sneak, and instead of putting All-American left tackle Taylor Lewan on the interior to blow a Husky off the ball, they put redshirt freshman backup Erik Magnuson? Fumble, touchdown for UConn. Freshmen killed Michigan on special teams, too:

  • Linebacker Ben Gedeon ran into the kicker on an early punt.
  • Wide receiver Da’Mario Jones lost track of a punt, allowing it to bounce off his foot and be recovered by the Huskies.
  • Cornerback Jourdan Lewis had an unnecessary roughness call on Drew Dileo’s punt return, bringing the ball back from about the 12-yard line to the 40.
The demise of Fitzgerald Toussaint has been greatly exaggerated. Toussaint isn’t the type who can create something out of nothing like Barry Sanders or run over people to gain two or three yards if the hole is plugged up. What he can do is take a little bit of space and exploit it. He had 24 carries for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a 35-yarder on an option pitch that showed nice vision and quickness.

Hooray for Michigan’s pass rush. Granted, it was against UConn, but Michigan still tallied 4 sacks on the night. Two came from weakside end Frank Clark, and four other guys notched a half-sack each: Jibreel Black, Mario Ojemudia, Raymon Taylor, and Wormley. I thought Clark specifically looked a little more energized, and it was nice to see Mattison dial up a corner blitz from Taylor.

21Sep 2013
Uncategorized 19 comments

Preview: Michigan at UConn

Rush Offense vs. UConn Rush Defense
The Wolverines have better rushing statistics than it might seem; they’re averaging 4.96 yards/carry, but that’s propped up by quarterback Devin Gardner’s 30 carries for 237 yards (7.9 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint (55 carries, 199 yards, 3.6 yards/carry, 3 touchdowns) looks recovered from his broken leg, but the offensive line is struggling to open holes. Primary backup Derrick Green has just 2 carries for 2 yards in the last couple games, so he’s not really a factor in tight games. UConn’s opponents are averaging 4.57 yards/carry; that list of opponents includes Maryland and FCS team Towson. Redshirt junior linebacker Yawin Smallwood (6’4″, 236 lbs.) leads the team in tackles with 30, and the next guy on the list is redshirt freshman safety Obi Melifonwu (6’4″, 208 lbs.) with 15. Melifonwu and and fifth year senior strongside end Tim Willman (6’4″, 267 lbs.) lead the team with 1.5 tackles for loss each. The Huskies have decent size up front with redshirt senior weakside end Jesse Joseph (6’3″, 262 lbs.), redshirt senior defensive tackle Shamar Stephen (6’5′, 313 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore defensive tackle Julian Campenni (6’0″, 298 lbs.). If UConn uses their vanilla 4-3 Over front, Michigan should be able to handle the front four pretty well, but Smallwood can fly all over the field. My guess is that Michigan’s offensive linemen come out angry and create some of the holes that were lacking against Akron last week.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. UConn Pass Defense
Gardner has been up and down this year, completing 47/78 passes (60.3%) for 704 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has made some poor decisions in the passing game, and he has a tendency to lock onto his favorite receiver, Jeremy Gallon (18 catches, 297 yards, 4 touchdowns). Sophomore tight end Devin Funchess is the next most targeted receiver (7 catches, 131 yards, 1 touchdown), but the other guys have been somewhat pedestrian. One potential breakout player is 6’3″, 196 lb. redshirt freshman Jehu Chesson, who caught a 33-yard touchdown pass last week and could develop into a deep threat. Melifonwu and senior cornerback Taylor Mack (5’9″, 175 lbs.) have the team’s only two picks thus far, but Melifonwu in particular is speed-deficient and could be taken advantage of in the passing game. As for the pass rush, well . . . Connecticut has zero sacks in two games. Smallwood had 3.5 last year, but 22.5 of their 33 sacks graduated after last season. They would be smart to run some twist stunts to confuse the young offensive guards, but as for pure athleticism and skill, it’s not really there.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. UConn Rush Offense
Redshirt junior running back Lyle McCombs (5’8″, 175 lbs.) averaged 3.54 yards/carry in 2012, and this year he’s all the way up to 3.58. He’s the only significant ball carrier for the Huskies. Sixth year senior left tackle Jimmy Bennett (6’9″, 307 lbs.), redshirt senior Steven Greene (6’5″, 308 lbs.), redshirt junior Alex Mateas (6’4″, 315 lbs.), redshirt junior Gus Cruz (6’4″, 309 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore Xavier Hemingway (6’5″, 273 lbs.) make up the line from left to right. Michigan holds opponents to 3.45 yards/carry, and the front seven is considered to be a strength, especially against pro-style running teams. Connecticut can’t outmuscle the Wolverines if fifth year senior nose tackle Quinton Washington and/or sophomore nose tackle Ondre Pipkins is on the field. Junior middle linebacker Desmond Morgan and sophomore weakside linebacker James Ross are both very good against the run, so McCombs should find it to be tough sledding. I doubt the Huskies will be able to do much in the running game.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Defense vs. UConn Pass Offense
Redshirt junior Chandler Whitmer (6’1″, 193 lbs.) is the Huskies’ quarterback. He completed 57.6% of his passes for 2,664 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions as a starter last year, and this year he’s upped that percentage to 60.8% while throwing for 3 scores and 3 picks. Redshirt junior Shakim Phillips (6’2″, 209 lbs.) is his favorite target with 15 catches for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns; classmate Geremy Davis (6’3″, 215 lbs.) led the team in receiving in 2012 and has 10 catches for 154 yards this season; and junior slot receiver Deshon Foxx (5’10”, 172 lbs.) has 4 catches for 54 yards. Meanwhile, Michigan has 5 sacks thus far, 4 of which have come from SAM linebackers Brennen Beyer and Cam Gordon. The Wolverines also have 5 picks, 3 of them dropping into the hands of redshirt sophomore corner Blake Countess. Michigan’s defensive backs seem to be playing too far off their receivers this year, causing too few breakups and some easy completions. Unless that philosophy changes, I expect a lot of short completions and then some shots down the field.
Advantage: UConn

Roster Notes

  • Zero Huskies players hail from the Great Lakes State.
  • Offensive coordinator/wide receivers coach T.J. Weist was a grad assistant at Michigan from 1990-93.
  • Quarterbacks coach Shane Day was a quality control assistant at Michigan in 2006.
  • Director of Football Alumni/Community Affairs Andy Blaylock got a graduate degree from Michigan in 1962.
  • On a personal note, I saw presentations by Connecticut head coach Paul Pasqualoni and running backs coach Kermit Buggs (at Penn State) at coaching clinics in recent years.
Predictions

  • Michigan turns on the jets in the running game, going for 250 yards total.
  • Greg Mattison keeps the corners in soft coverage because he thinks his guys can beat the other guys, anyway.
  • Michigan comes out pissed off and embarrassed by last week’s performance, taking out their frustrations on the Huskies and knocking Whitmer out of the game.
  • Michigan 38, UConn 14
Last Time They Played . . . 

  • Denard Robinson’s first career start at quarterback netted 197 rushing yards, 186 passing yards, and a 30-10 victory.
  • True freshman Devin Gardner entered the game when Robinson got nicked up, running for -4 yards and attempting 0 passes.
  • Terrence Robinson had 1 catch for 43 yards, the longest play of the day.
  • Obi Ezeh led the team in tackles with 9, adding a fumble recovery