Tag: Jordan Kovacs

Iowa 38, Michigan 28

Tate Forcier (#5) jumps for joy after a Stephen Hopkins rushing TD.

I expected an Iowa victory on Saturday, but once again, Michigan’s defense failed in spectacular fashion.  Giving up 38 points to a team with mediocre offensive personnel is extremely frustrating.  I can’t imagine what a team with a truly good offense – Oregon, for example – might do to Michigan’s D.  Some bullets:

Tate Forcier is quarterback 1b.  I’m not prepared to call for the benching of Denard Robinson.  Robinson is still the prototype for Rich Rodriguez’s zone read option offense.  However, Robinson also feasted on defenses early in the season who a) lacked athleticism or b) lacked complex defensive schemes.  How many times did we see him torch defenses that committed an extra safety or two to the run game, only to see Robinson and one of his receivers beat man coverage with a throw over the top?  Meanwhile, Forcier made a couple questionable throws, but provided a spark when relieving an injured Robinson late in the game.  Tate finished the day 17-for-26 for 239 yards, 2 touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 passing), and 2 interceptions.  Is there any question at this point that Forcier ought to be one of the top two quarterbacks on the team?  We haven’t seen freshman Devin Gardner since the Big Ten season started, so I still can’t understand why the coaches burned his redshirt against UConn . . . unless Gardner comes down with a mysterious “injury” or “illness” that allows him to get a medical exemption.

Denard Robinson runs the ball too much.  Posters over at MGoBlog have done “studies” to show that mobile quarterbacks and pocket quarterbacks have similar rates of injury.  When people have made the argument that Denard Robinson is bound to get hurt because of his small stature, some internet message boarders have scoffed.  Well, my study of Denard Robinson says this:

• On 143 pass attempts, Denard Robinson hasn’t suffered an injury that caused him to miss playing time.
• On 137 rushing attempts, he has suffered injuries that have caused him to miss time in 6 games.

Robinson is too slight and/or injury prone to be carrying the ball nearly 20 times a game.  If I remember correctly, he had 17 carries at halftime.  Should Michigan really be running its MVP and starting quarterback 34 times in a single game?

Rocko Khoury is a solid backup.  Unlike last year, when right guard David Moosman replaced David Molk at center due to Molk’s injuries, redshirt sophomore center Khoury played admirably after Molk aggravated an ankle injury early in the game.  Khoury had a case of the jitters early on and had some snap issues, but those seemed to get solved pretty quickly.

Vincent Smith should be relegated to backup duty.  I know I’m a broken record, but at least Rich Rodriguez finally figured out what I’ve been saying for awhile: Smith isn’t a short yardage back.  Hopkins was the short yardage back on Saturday, and he responded with 8 carries for 38 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and a goal line touchdown (pictured above) in which he actually ran through a tackle.  Meanwhile, Smith had 10 carries for 39 yards (3.9 yards per carry) and a critical lost fumble on Iowa’s 14-yard line.  For the record, Smith also had 2 catches for 22 yards and 1 touchdown, so he wasn’t exactly useless.  But that’s my thing with Smith: if he’s lined up in the slot or catching passes out of the backfield, I’m okay with him being out there.  But he shouldn’t be leading the running backs in carries.

Tate Forcier and Darryl Stonum are in love.  When Denard was in the game, Darryl Stonum got visibly frustrated with having to dig out a couple errant passes from hitting the ground.  When Forcier entered the game, it seemed like the QB was looking for #22 on every play.  Stonum ended the day with 9 catches for 97 yards, most of which came after Forcier’s entrance into the game.  Forcier also hit Junior Hemingway a few times and Hemingway ended the day with 9 catches for 134 yards and 1 touchdown.

Run the ball, damnit.  It would have been nice if Michigan’s offense could have kept Iowa off balance by running the ball late in the game.  I know they were running short on time, but passing on every down is extremely difficult.  Once Forcier entered the game, the playcalling seemed to want him to sling the ball all over the field.  Maybe it’s just me, but I thought Forcier’s second interception was the result of the lack of a running threat.  Like I said, the clock might have dictated the playcalling, so I don’t have a huge problem with the call.  But it sure would be nice if a dangerous running back (hopefully Demetrius Hart in the near future) could make defenses think twice before getting to their drops.

Michigan’s defense is atrocious.  I’m not going to spend too much time talking about the defense.  We all know which unit most needs to improve for Michigan to have any chance of success.  Michigan failed to come up with key defensive stops and allowed a mediocre running back to run for 142 yards.  And while Iowa’s passing offense isn’t prone to huge plays, quarterback Ricky Stanzi completed 71% of his passes.  My frustration reached its apex when JT Floyd aligned himself inside of Derrell Johnson-Koulianos to take away the slant and force the receiver to the sideline.  Johnson-Koulianos deked outside, Floyd jumped him, and Johnson-Koulianos waltzed untouched into the endzone after catching – what else? – a slant.  I don’t know if that’s poor coaching or poor execution, especially because Floyd made the same mistake a couple drives later (although it didn’t go for a touchdown).

Jordan Kovacs is oh so close to being good.  On a corner blitz in the first quarter, safety Kovacs jumped a fade route near Michigan’s end zone.  If Kovacs were a half step faster, the ball would have been picked and returned about 100 yards for a touchdown.  But since Kovacs is who he is, the play resulted in a PBU.  Kovacs played well for the most part, but his physical limitations will continue to make me wish brain transplants were feasible.  If Justin Turner had Kovacs’ knowledge and work ethic, Turner would be an All Big Ten safety.

Kenny Demens played well.  He still did some frustrating things, but Demens showed more promise than Obi Ezeh has shown this year.  I’m still not entirely sold on Demens as the savior at MLB, but he made some strides against Iowa.

Special teams were atrocious, too.  Walk-on kicker Seth Broekhuizen has beaten out redshirt freshman Brendan Gibbons.  Gibbons must be horrible, because Broekhuizen had a field goal blocked for the second week in a row.  He also booted at least two (three?) kickoffs out of bounds to give Iowa great field position.  That’s effing ridiculous.  And if you’ve been wondering why William Campbell hasn’t earned more playing time on the defensive line, maybe that blocked field goal gives you an inkling – Iowa defensive tackle Broderick Binns got lower than Campbell and blew open a gap in the protection.  At least Will Hagerup played well and averaged 50+ yards a punt.  I wonder if he can kick off.

Mailbag: Why the Roy Roundtree love?

RE: Roundtree: His lack of speed is evident. It basically cost us the Illinois game last year, and almost cost us the Indiana game this year. (Its never just about one play, but if he doesn’t get caught on those plays we maybe/probably get 7 extra points that don’t make these gains seem so bad) Speed and big play ability has been hailed in this blog (Shaw on O and the critiques for Gordon/Kovacs on D) but Roundtree has gotten a bit of a free pass.


Most of Roundtree’s big plays are the result of Denard and scheme. He runs, untouched, thanks to the defense’s attention being elsewhere. He’s a good player (that ND catch to get to the goalline was the best play of his career IMO) but he’s benefiting from circumstance. Odoms was pretty productive in the same role and Grady has had some big plays in the backup guy.  The slots all have a similar YPC, while Stonum, TRob, and Hemingway all have bigger YPC.


I’m not saying Roundtree should be benched, I’m just wondering why the love for Roundtree is so strong but another productive/reliable player like Smith gets killed.

First of all, let’s take a look at the facts.  Lankownia says that the slots all have similar yards per catch, and a few other wide receivers have better yards per catch.  So let’s see . . .

Roy Roundtree: 25 catches, 337 yards, 13.6 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Darryl Stonum: 15 catches, 226 yards, 15.1 yards per catch, 2 touchdowns
Martavious Odoms: 14 catches, 165 yards, 11.8 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Kelvin Grady: 8 catches, 105 yards, 12.1 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns
Junior Hemingway: 6 catches, 190 yards, 31.7 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Jeremy Gallon: 2 catches, 25 yards, 12.5 yards per catch, 1 touchdown
Terrence Robinson: 1 catch, 43 yards, 43.0 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns

So if we’re just talking about yards per catch, Roundtree is fourth on the team behind Terrence Robinson, Junior Hemingway, and Darryl Stonum.  Robinson only has one catch this season, so it’s hard to tell how talented he is.  Surely his 43.0 yards per catch wouldn’t hold up throughout an entire season.

That leaves Stonum and Hemingway as legitimately more dangerous players, right?  Sure, I guess.  But those solid numbers are also a function of their positions.  In Rich Rodriguez’s offense, the outside receivers are expected to a) block, b) run intermediate routes, and c) run go routes.  It should be expected that these players will have higher yards per catch, because short routes aren’t in their arsenal.  They either catch the ball downfield, or they don’t catch the ball at all.

In the meantime, Roy Roundtree plays slot receiver.  Slot receiver in this offense is much like running back, because a large portion of Roundtree’s catches are bubble screens, which are essentially long handoffs.  Lankownia states that Martavious Odoms was pretty productive as a slot receiver, too, but these two slot receivers don’t compare.  Between 2008 and 2009, Odoms averaged 35.5 receptions, 357.5 yards, and .5 touchdowns.  In 10 career games as a slot receiver, Roundtree has 57 catches for 771 yards and 5 touchdowns.  And while Odoms only averaged 10.1 yards per reception in 2008-09, Roundtree has him beat by about 3.5 yards per catch.  That’s a pretty significant difference.

Lankownia seems to be frustrated that Roundtree has been unable to score on a couple long receptions.  He had a 76-yarder against Illinois last year on which he was caught at the 1-yard line, and there was the 74-yarder against Indiana this past weekend on which Roundtree was stopped on the 2-yard line.  I have a hard time criticizing a guy whose biggest fault seems to be that his 75-ish-yard catches don’t turn into 77-ish-yard catches.  Those plays would probably be remembered more fondly if Rich Rodriguez hadn’t chosen noted softy Carlos Brown and 5’6″ Vincent Smith, respectively, to try to punch those subsequent plays into the endzone; in case your memory is failing you right now, both Brown and Smith failed. 

Regarding Roundtree’s supposed lack of speed vs. the lack of speed for Cameron Gordon and Jordan Kovacs, I don’t see Roundtree’s footspeed as a huge problem.  Again, when a guy is averaging 13.6 yards a catch and has the ability to make 76-yard catch-and-run plays, I’m not going to complain.  Roundtree has the necessary skills to be a very successful wide receiver, even if his speed leaves a tiny bit to be desired.  The problem with Cam Gordon and Jordan Kovacs is that their lack of speed specifically prevents them from doing their jobs.  As safeties, their jobs presumably entail preventing the other team from making big plays and scoring.  When an Indiana running back outruns you for 85 yards (Jordan Kovacs) and when a 265 lb. tight end outruns you for 95 yards (Cam Gordon), there’s a problem with that.  And when both of those guys are playing in the same defensive backfield, it’s a recipe for disaster.

Lankownia also says that Roundtree’s production is the result of Denard’s running ability.  If that’s true, then why did Roundtree catch 32 passes for 434 yards and 3 touchdowns with Tate Forcier running the show last year?  Teams weren’t really afraid of Forcier’s running, but Roundtree still found a way to lead the team in receiving in scant playing time.

The premise for Lankownia’s statement about Smithis questionable, in my opinion.  It presumes that Vincent Smith is a productive running back.  As I noted in a recent post, Smith is the 8th-best running back (by yards per carry) in the Big Ten + Notre Dame.  Those mediocre numbers are in conjunction with a Heisman candidate at quarterback and a good offensive line.  Even if Smith is the best running back Michigan has to offer – which I obviously don’t believe – that doesn’t mean he’s productive.  Meanwhile, Roundtree consistently finds himself in open areas of the field, whether the quarterback is Tate Forcier or Denard Robinson.  I don’t know what it is, but Roundtree has that “It Factor” that some guys just happen to have.  He catches the ball, makes an occasional big play, blocks well (watch Brandon Minor’s TD run against Purdue in 2009), makes people miss, and most importantly, he gets open.

I can’t make this clear enough, but it’s worth repeating: I don’t hate Vincent Smith.  I don’t have a personal grudge against him.  I’m not against short backs (I loved to watch Darren Sproles when he was at Kansas State), I’m not against dreadlocks (Denard Robinson has quickly grown into one of my favorite players), and it’s not about recruiting rankings (Michael Cox wasn’t a highly touted recruit, either).  I quite simply believe that Smith shouldn’t be getting the most carries for this team.  And while Smith has been just so-so in his two seasons, Roundtree has been somewhere between above average and spectacular.

Michigan 42, Indiana 35




You can close your eyes and pray all you want, #46, but you’re not gonna catch him.

  Yesterday’s victory was at once entertaining, frustrating, and boring.  The entertainment factor was apparent: Michigan put up 574 yards and 42 points on a Big Ten team, with quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Denard Robinson accounting for 494 of those yards.  The frustration part was apparent, too: Michigan allowed 568 yards and 35 points to a perennial Big Ten cellar dweller, and Indiana held the ball for over 41 minutes.

The boring part was less obvious, but throughout the entire game, I knew Michigan was going to win this game.  I’ve rarely been this confident during a contest, but I feel I’ve reached a near level of zen when it comes to watching this Michigan team.  Michigan’s offense will score loads of points as long as Denard Robinson is at the helm, and Michigan’s defense sucks.  I no longer hope for competence from Michigan’s defense.  They are overmatched and there’s virtually no hope for them to improve this season.  Sure, they’ll make a timely sack once in awhile (Mike Martin) or flash some anticipation in the secondary that results in an interception (Cam Gordon).  But ultimately, both defenses yesterday were atrocious and Michigan’s offense is better.  A 7-point margin is . . . just about right.

Some praise and a few gripes . . .

Denard Robinson is awesome.  I feel like I say this in almost every post, but there’s no getting around it.  He is having one of the best statistical seasons in college football history and is currently on pace to run (2,353) and throw (2,621) for 2,000 yards and account for 39 touchdowns over a 13-game season.  The easiest part of the schedule has passed, so I don’t expect that Robinson will maintain his torrid pace.  Regardless, the first five starts of his career must be on par with or better than every other quarterback in NCAA history.

Michigan’s defense is bad.  This was noted above, but there’s no reason to expect significant improvement in the second half of the season.  I heard Michigan’s official motto is “Let’s hope the other team drops the ball or something.”  After Saturday’s game Michigan is ranked #120 (out of 120 teams) in pass defense, giving up 307.8 yards a game in the air.  Michigan is also #88 in sacks, #88 in net punting, #99 in punt returns, #102 in total defense, and #104 in kickoff returns.  Basically, Michigan is bad at everything that doesn’t involve offense.  And the Wolverines haven’t even played the tough part of their schedule.

Michigan’s goalline offense needs rethinking.  Roy Roundtree caught a 74-yard pass that took the ball down to Indiana’s 2-yard line.  On first down, Michigan lined up in the I-formation and shot a BB at Indiana’s defense in the form of 5’6″, 180 lb. Vincent Smith.  That didn’t work.  Then Michigan lined up in the I-formation again, and the center-quarterback exchange was promptly fumbled, providing Indiana the chance to drive 99 yards for a touchdown (on which Indiana capitalized).  Rich Rodriguez has a 6’0″, 211 lb. tailback (Michael Cox) and a 6’1″, 227 lb. tailback (Stephen Hopkins) at his disposal.  That personnel decision makes no sense whatsoever.

Vincent Smith had a good game.  I don’t think anyone has been more critical of Vincent Smith than I have.  It’s not that I dislike him or think he’s a horrible player, but I just think there are better options.  Against Indiana he had a 56-yard touchdown run on which he was nearly untouched.  Altogether he had 9 carries for 80 yards and the touchdown.  After five games, here’s how Smith stacks up against the rest of the Big Ten’s (and Notre Dame’s) leading rushers, listed according to yards per carry:

1. Edwin Baker (Michigan State): 75 carries, 536 yards, 7.1 ypc, 5 TDs
2. John Clay (Wisconsin): 94 carries, 581 yards, 6.2 ypc, 6 TDs
3. Mikel Leshoure (Illinois): 77 carries, 478 yards, 6.2 ypc, 3 TDs
4. Dan Dierking (Purdue): 38 carries, 205 yards, 5.4 ypc, 2 TDs
5. Evan Royster (Penn State): 67 carries, 353 yards, 5.3 ypc, 1 TD
6. Adam Robinson (Iowa): 98 carries, 480 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
7. Armando Allen (Notre Dame): 80 carries, 392 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs
8. Vincent Smith (Michigan): 53 carries, 252 yards, 4.8 ypc, 4 TDs
9. Dan Herron (Ohio State): 65 carries, 287 yards, 4.4 ypc, 5 TDs
10. Duane Bennett (Minnesota): 91 carries, 400 yards, 4.4 ypc, 2 TDs

Preview: Michigan at Indiana

Expect to see a lot of this: Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell picking on Michigan’s secondary.

Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is currently the #2 rushing offense in the country with 331.25 yards a game.  Meanwhile, Indiana has been giving up 177 yards a game to the likes of Western Kentucky, Akron, and Towson to rank #92 in the nation.  This is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers.  Despite the return of starting middle linebacker Tyler Replogle, who missed last week’s game with a concussion, the Wolverines should be able to have their way.  Quarterback Denard Robinson is the leading rusher in the NCAA, and the only way Indiana should be able to stop him is by bruising his knee after a 30-yard run.  One caveat, though – there’s a strong possibility that running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder; 2 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD last week) and Michael Shaw (knee; 44 carries, 256 yards, 5 TDs this year) will miss Saturday’s game.  That leaves sophomore Vincent Smith, redshirt sophomore Michael Cox, and freshman Stephen Hopkins to pick up the slack in the running back rotation.  That shouldn’t matter too much, although those two missing players are big-play threats for Michigan’s offense.
Advantage: Michigan

Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan’s quarterbacks have only been sacked once this year, and the likelihood of Indiana’s front seven catching up to Denard Robinson is low.  The Hoosiers have only mustered four sacks this season in those three games against feeble opponents.  The biggest matchup problem here is 2010 Denard Robinson vs. 2009 Denard Robinson.  If 2010 Denard Robinson keeps up his torrid pace and throws like the 16th most efficient QB in the country, then this should be a clear victory for the Wolverines once again.  I haven’t seen any evidence that Robinson will regress to 2009 form, but his performance so far this season seems too good to be true.  He’s bound to have a bad game at some point, but will it happen against Indiana?  Well . . . probably not.
Advantage: Michigan

Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
The Wolverines have done a better job of limiting big runs in 2010.  With eight men consistently in the box, Michigan’s run defense hasn’t been great (#53 in the country, 135.25 yards a game), but big plays have been rare.  Hopefully that can remain true this week, too, because leading rusher Darius Willis (46 carries, 219 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) had an 85-yard TD against Michigan in 2009, and wideout Tandon Doss had a 25-yard TD in last year’s game, too.  One of the most memorable images from the 2009 season was of Willis outrunning safety Jordan Kovacs and cornerback J.T. Floyd to the endzone.  That was not a happy moment.  The only guy who had a prayer of catching Willis from behind was safety Troy Woolfolk, who’s currently healing from a broken ankle.  Michigan’s secondary is even a bit slower this year, as Floyd and Kovacs are back but Woolfolk’s replacement is Cam Gordon, who gets outrun by 265 lb. tight ends and MAC wide receivers.  Improved play from Michigan’s linebackers – as well as the eight-man front – should be able to stall Willis a little better this year, but there will be some frustrating moments.
Advantage: Indiana

Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
This is what scares me.  Bad opponents or not, Indiana averages 304 yards a game through the air (#11 in the country).  Michigan played a couple patsies and Notre Dame, but ranks #105 in the country in pass defense (264 yards a game) and #55 in pass efficiency defense.  Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 270 yards last year, and he’s supported by some good-sized receivers with decent but not great speed.  Free safety Cameron Gordon has been a liability in pass coverage, and I expect Indiana to test him repeatedly; the Hoosiers would be silly not to try.  Michigan hasn’t shown the ability to shut down a decent passing game, and I don’t think this is the week that they’ll step up.  Michigan fans will just have to pony up and expect some big plays through the air.
Advantage: Indiana

Final Predictions

• Denard Robinson rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns
• Ben Chappell increases the team’s passing average by throwing for 305 yards or more
• Michigan finally gets a big play out of the return game
• My preseason upset pick will be proven wrong because . . .
• . . . Michigan will win 45-31

Michigan 65, Bowling Green 21

Quarterbacks Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson celebrate during Saturday’s 65-21 victory over Bowling Green.

Yesterday was a pretty ridiculous good time.  It’s hard to learn much about Michigan’s team in a game like this, because everything worked.  The Wolverines had 721 total yards, which is only six few than Michigan’s all-time record for yardage that was set last year against Delaware State.

A couple new things I noticed . . .

1. Michigan used a “heavy package” that included two tight ends in the backfield with the QB and the RB.  Michigan is getting to the point where they can install new packages and formations without confusing the kids too much.  We’re starting to see how many different looks Rich Rodriguez and Calvin Magee can show, and at least for now, they all seem to be working.

2. Michigan used some defensive packages with four cornerbacks.  As far as I know, Michigan hadn’t used a nickel or dime package in a couple years.  Last year’s adjustment to multiple wide receivers was to put linebacker Steve Brown and one of the free safeties on the slot receivers.  This four-corner look might not be a legitimate option against a talented Big Ten team like Ohio State, but it could be used situationally.  Showing it against BGSU gives those kids a chance to practice it, and it also gives future opponents something for which to gameplan.

There were also several old themes revisited, many of which have been addressed here earlier.  I won’t go into too much depth on these, but they were worth noting . . .

• Devin Gardner redshirt vs. Tate Forcier.  Gardner had some good moments but still looked awkward at times.  I’m on the record as saying that Gardner’s redshirt shouldn’t have been burned, at least not so early in the season.  This game seemed to support my theory.  Gardner finished 7/10 for 85 yards and 1 touchdown, while rushing the ball 6 times for 25 yards (4.2 ypc) and 1 touchdown.  Meanwhile, Forcier set a Michigan record by going 12/12 for 110 yards and 1 touchdown, in addition to 4 rushes for 30 yards (7.5 ypc).
• Vincent Smith is still not as good as the other running backs.  He did have a nice touchdown run where he actually ran through a tackle.  But by the end of the game, Fitzgerald Toussaint had 2 carries for 66 yards (33 ypc) and Michael Cox had 6 carries for 56 yards (9.3 ypc).  Still, Smith (12 carries, 62 yards, 5.2 ypc, 2 touchdowns) tied for the most carries with Michael Shaw (12 carries, 59 yards, 4.9 ypc, 1 touchdown).  Even freshman Stephen Hopkins had a better average (6 carries, 33 yards, 5.3 ypc), although Hopkins put the ball on the ground.
• Cameron Gordon and Jordan Kovacs are slow.  Gordon couldn’t catch up to a 265 lb. tight end a couple weeks ago, and this week he got torched by a MAC wide receiver on a screen pass that turned into a 71-yard TD.  Jordan Kovacs was also unable to gain any ground on Tyrone Pronty that play.  It’s not good when both of the team’s safeties are so lacking in foot speed, but that’s where Michigan’s defense is right now.  It would have also helped if Thomas Gordon and James Rogers gave better efforts . . .
• Michigan needs to rush more than three to get to the quarterback.  The Wolverines had three sacks (two by Ryan Van Bergen, one by Jonas Mouton), and at least two – maybe all three – came on plays where Michigan sent more than three rushers.
• Denard Robinson is good.  He had 5 carries for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns, and was 4/4 passing for 60 yards.  All that happened in about half a quarter of play.