Countdown to Kickoff: Day 21

Tag: Junior Hemingway


6Jul 2011
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Poll Results: Who will be Michigan’s leading receiver in 2011?

Roy Roundtree

Roy Roundtree: 48%

Junior Hemingway: 38%
Je’Ron Stokes: 4%
Martavious Odoms: 2%
Darryl Stonum: 2%
Drew Dileo: ~0%
Kevin Koger: ~0%
Jerald Robinson: ~0%
Vincent Smith: ~0%
Other: ~0%

Roundtree was the obvious choice here, since he’s Michigan’s reigning receiving champ.  He had 72 receptions for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns a year ago and made the media’s All-Big Ten second team.  But this spring was a bit of an eye-opener, I think, because he wasn’t the star of the show.  Roundtree was often running with the second team offense and, although nobody else caught more, he only had 1 catch (for 12 yards) in the spring game.

Hemingway was the obvious #2 choice here, too.  He was Michigan’s third-leading receiver last season, grabbing 32 passes for 593 yards and 4 touchdowns.  While his number of receptions was well below those of the top two guys last year (72 for Roundtree, 49 for Stonum), he averaged over 18 yards a catch, compared to their combined 13 yards per reception.  Hemingway is the more prototypical wideout for Michigan (a big leaper with so-so speed), but he’s missed time in each of the last three seasons due to injury.

Je’Ron Stokes was a bit of a surprise to finish third in the voting.  I would have expected Odoms or Stonum ahead of him.  Stokes only has 3 catches for 27 yards in his first two seasons.  The new coaching staff could bring with it a new pecking order, but I think Stokes is a bench player until the four senior receivers depart.

Odoms has progressively lost ground since his freshman year, going from 443 yards in 2008 to 272 yards in 2009 to 241 yards in 2010.  Part of that loss of production last season was due to missing six games because of injury.  He’s small at only 5’8″ and 175 lbs., but his willingness to block might propel him to a starting role.  As long as he stays healthy, I would guess he’ll see an uptick in yardage this coming season.  But he hasn’t led the team in receiving since his freshman year, and I doubt that’s going to change.

Stonum is going to have a difficult time digging himself out of the hole that he created for himself.  He’s been in trouble with the law on multiple occasions, and his Michigan career is in jeopardy because of it.  He’s currently in limbo on “indefinite suspension” and should miss at least a couple games.  Punishing kids for breaking the law ought to come in the form of missed playing time during the year, not in the offseason.

Dileo, Koger, Robinson, and Smith probably aren’t viable options.  I figured I would throw them up there just in case a good number of people expected something I didn’t, but voters’ thoughts seem to be mostly in line with mine.  Kudos to the one person who voted for Vincent Smith, though.  Dare to be different.

3Oct 2010
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Michigan 42, Indiana 35




You can close your eyes and pray all you want, #46, but you’re not gonna catch him.

  Yesterday’s victory was at once entertaining, frustrating, and boring.  The entertainment factor was apparent: Michigan put up 574 yards and 42 points on a Big Ten team, with quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Denard Robinson accounting for 494 of those yards.  The frustration part was apparent, too: Michigan allowed 568 yards and 35 points to a perennial Big Ten cellar dweller, and Indiana held the ball for over 41 minutes.

The boring part was less obvious, but throughout the entire game, I knew Michigan was going to win this game.  I’ve rarely been this confident during a contest, but I feel I’ve reached a near level of zen when it comes to watching this Michigan team.  Michigan’s offense will score loads of points as long as Denard Robinson is at the helm, and Michigan’s defense sucks.  I no longer hope for competence from Michigan’s defense.  They are overmatched and there’s virtually no hope for them to improve this season.  Sure, they’ll make a timely sack once in awhile (Mike Martin) or flash some anticipation in the secondary that results in an interception (Cam Gordon).  But ultimately, both defenses yesterday were atrocious and Michigan’s offense is better.  A 7-point margin is . . . just about right.

Some praise and a few gripes . . .

Denard Robinson is awesome.  I feel like I say this in almost every post, but there’s no getting around it.  He is having one of the best statistical seasons in college football history and is currently on pace to run (2,353) and throw (2,621) for 2,000 yards and account for 39 touchdowns over a 13-game season.  The easiest part of the schedule has passed, so I don’t expect that Robinson will maintain his torrid pace.  Regardless, the first five starts of his career must be on par with or better than every other quarterback in NCAA history.

Michigan’s defense is bad.  This was noted above, but there’s no reason to expect significant improvement in the second half of the season.  I heard Michigan’s official motto is “Let’s hope the other team drops the ball or something.”  After Saturday’s game Michigan is ranked #120 (out of 120 teams) in pass defense, giving up 307.8 yards a game in the air.  Michigan is also #88 in sacks, #88 in net punting, #99 in punt returns, #102 in total defense, and #104 in kickoff returns.  Basically, Michigan is bad at everything that doesn’t involve offense.  And the Wolverines haven’t even played the tough part of their schedule.

Michigan’s goalline offense needs rethinking.  Roy Roundtree caught a 74-yard pass that took the ball down to Indiana’s 2-yard line.  On first down, Michigan lined up in the I-formation and shot a BB at Indiana’s defense in the form of 5’6″, 180 lb. Vincent Smith.  That didn’t work.  Then Michigan lined up in the I-formation again, and the center-quarterback exchange was promptly fumbled, providing Indiana the chance to drive 99 yards for a touchdown (on which Indiana capitalized).  Rich Rodriguez has a 6’0″, 211 lb. tailback (Michael Cox) and a 6’1″, 227 lb. tailback (Stephen Hopkins) at his disposal.  That personnel decision makes no sense whatsoever.

Vincent Smith had a good game.  I don’t think anyone has been more critical of Vincent Smith than I have.  It’s not that I dislike him or think he’s a horrible player, but I just think there are better options.  Against Indiana he had a 56-yard touchdown run on which he was nearly untouched.  Altogether he had 9 carries for 80 yards and the touchdown.  After five games, here’s how Smith stacks up against the rest of the Big Ten’s (and Notre Dame’s) leading rushers, listed according to yards per carry:

1. Edwin Baker (Michigan State): 75 carries, 536 yards, 7.1 ypc, 5 TDs
2. John Clay (Wisconsin): 94 carries, 581 yards, 6.2 ypc, 6 TDs
3. Mikel Leshoure (Illinois): 77 carries, 478 yards, 6.2 ypc, 3 TDs
4. Dan Dierking (Purdue): 38 carries, 205 yards, 5.4 ypc, 2 TDs
5. Evan Royster (Penn State): 67 carries, 353 yards, 5.3 ypc, 1 TD
6. Adam Robinson (Iowa): 98 carries, 480 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TDs
7. Armando Allen (Notre Dame): 80 carries, 392 yards, 4.9 ypc, 2 TDs
8. Vincent Smith (Michigan): 53 carries, 252 yards, 4.8 ypc, 4 TDs
9. Dan Herron (Ohio State): 65 carries, 287 yards, 4.4 ypc, 5 TDs
10. Duane Bennett (Minnesota): 91 carries, 400 yards, 4.4 ypc, 2 TDs

11. Darius Willis (Indiana): 64 carries, 278 yards, 4.3 ypc, 3 TDs
12. Arby Fields (Northwestern): 56 carries, 160 yards, 2.9 ypc, 1 TD

For what it’s worth, prior to this week Smith was averaging 3.9 yards per carry, which would have put him at #11.  Against varying levels of competition, Michael Shaw (5.6 ypc) would be #4, Stephen Hopkins (4.7 ypc) would be #9, and Michael Cox (9.3 ypc) would be #1.  So there is some statistical backing for my argument that Michigan’s starting running back position needs to show some more productivity.

Indiana fans are tools.  Unless something odd happened in the stadium that wasn’t caught on camera, it sure seemed like the fans in Bloomington cheered when Denard Robinson fell to the ground injured.  On the one hand, it’s certainly a backhanded compliment, like “Hooray, we might have a chance to win this game if he sits out the rest of it!”  On the other – and far more important – hand, it was a classless response from the Hoosier crowd.  You don’t cheer when someone gets hurt, period.

Junior Hemingway is slow but good, I guess.  Hemingway caught a slant from Denard Robinson that he turned into a 70-yard touchdown.  After he broke the cornerback’s tackle and got up to full speed in the open field, I started wondering, “Did he pull a muscle?”  Nope, that’s just how Hemingway runs.  It was reminiscent of Roy Roundtree’s 76-yard catch against Illinois in 2009, on which Roundtree was run down by Terry Hawthorne.  Luckily, Indiana’s defense isn’t very fast, either.  Hemingway also made a clutch 42-yard reception near the end of regulation that set up Robinson’s game-winning touchdown, and finished with 3 catches for 126 yards and 1 touchdown.

Jordan Kovacs must hate Darius Willis.  Last year Darius Willis outran Kovacs (among others) for an 85-yard touchdown.  This year Willis caught a pass in the flat, shook Kovacs on the sideline, and trotted in for a touchdown.  Kovacs is normally a sure tackler, but I have to admit, the thing that ran through my mind was “If he can’t tackle and he can’t run fast, why is he out there?”  That was just a fleeting thought, though, because Kovacs is probably one of the better tacklers on the team.

Roy Roundtree should get the #1 jersey next year.  Prior to the season, I predicted that Roundtree would get 60 catches and 900 yards this year.  Through five games, he’s on pace for 65 catches and 876 yards, which is pretty darn close.  If he continues in this vein, then I think he deserves to wear the #1 jersey in 2011.  He’s a likeable, hardworking kid, he’s successful on both long and short passes, he’s a willing blocker, and he has a knack for getting open.  He might not be the physical freak that Michigan is used to seeing out of its #1 wide receivers (6’3″, 215 lb. guys who can jump high and run really fast), but Michigan fans couldn’t ask for much more out of him.

Taylor Lewan better learn quickly.  We’ve been hearing for months that Lewan is a bit of a hothead.  His emotions could have cost Michigan the game on Saturday, though.  After Denard Robinson scored a touchdown to put Michigan up 41-35 with 17 seconds left in the game, Lewan was trying to get over to Robinson to celebrate.  Supposedly an Indiana player on the ground tried to trip Lewan, which resulted in an altercation and a 15-yard penalty on Lewan.  I don’t care what an opponent tries to do – there’s no good excuse for getting a 15-yard penalty when your team scores the potential game-winning touchdown.  If he trips you, fall to the ground, get up, and go celebrate.  What, you’ve never been tripped before?  Were you afraid that he ruined your pretty maize pants?  Suck it up, and think about the team first.  And while you’re at it, you might want to learn how to block without holding.  On the game-winning drive, he should have been called for holding at least twice that I saw on television.

Michigan found a way to win.  Regardless of what went down from the starting whistle to the final whistle, Michigan won the game.  The offense was mostly awesome, and the defense did just enough to win.  There are definitely some things to fix or tweak, but when it comes down to it, the Wolverines’ record is 5-0.  Go Blue!

9Aug 2010
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Review: 2009 Season Predictions

Jordan Kovacs went from an afterthought to a Freshman All-American.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to record my predictions, in order to look back on them at a later date. Well, that date has come. It’s a few weeks prior to the 2010 season, and I can’t help but think back on how I did last year (2009 Season Predictions here). I didn’t do too badly, but there were a couple surprises.

Starting Quarterback
Last year’s pick: Tate Forcier. I said he’d start every game.

I should have picked . . . Forcier. He started every game.

Leading Rusher
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor. I said he’d end the season with about 900 yards.

I should have picked . . . Minor. Minor only had 502 yards, but he missed three full games (plus parts of several others) due to injuries.

Leading Receiver
Last year’s pick: Greg Mathews. I said he’d catch 50 balls for 650 yards.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Mathews only caught 29 passes as the coaching staff continues to de-emphasize outside wide receivers. The leading receiver was slot receiver Roundtree, who caught 32 balls for 434 yards.

Leading Tackler
Last year’s pick: Obi Ezeh.

I should have picked . . . Steve Brown. Middle linebacker Ezeh fought through a back injury and inconsistency to finish third with 69 tackles. SAM linebacker Brown brought down 80 ballcarriers, while redshirt freshman safety Jordan Kovacs made 75 stops.

Leading Sacker
Last year’s pick: Brandon Graham. I said he’d finish at 10 sacks.

I should have picked . . . Graham. The obvious choice was obvious. Graham ended the season with 10.5 sacks, or 1/2 more of a sack than I thought. Damn half sacks!

Leading Interceptor
Last year’s pick: Donovan Warren. I said he’d snatch 3 errant passes.

I should have picked . . . Warren. He actually picked off 4 passes, so once again, I overestimated. If he had only picked off 3 like I told him to, then maybe he’d have stuck around for an extra year! Then again, that pick-off against Indiana really saved Michigan’s ass.

All-Big Ten First Team
Last year’s picks: Brandon Graham and Zoltan Mesko.

I should have picked . . . Graham, Mesko, and Donovan Warren. Graham and Mesko were voted All-Big Ten first team by the coaches. Those two plus Warren were chosen for the first team by the media. Two for three isn’t bad.

Leading Scorer (non-QB, non-kicker)
Last year’s pick: Brandon Minor.

I should have picked . . . Minor. He scored 8 rushing touchdowns (48 points). The next closest scorer was Carlos Brown with 5 touchdowns (30 points). Placekicker Jason Olesnavage scored 75 points, but kickers are almost always the leading scorers, which is why I didn’t allow myself to pick him.

Breakout Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Junior Hemingway.

I should have picked . . . Roy Roundtree. Hemingway only caught 16 passes, while Roundtree emerged as the go-to receiver late in the season and perhaps the front-runner for the next wearer of the coveted #1 jersey.

Breakout Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Troy Woolfolk.

I should have picked . . . Jordan Kovacs. I don’t feel bad about the Woolfolk pick. He made 46 tackles and I think he surprised a lot of people with his solid play at both deep safety and cornerback. Despite switching to cornerback halfway through the season, it seemed that opponents targeted Donovan Warren more often than Woolfolk. Still, Kovacs was a Freshman All-American, started eight games, and finished second on the team with 75 tackles.

Most Disappointing Offensive Player
Last year’s pick: Kevin Koger. I said he wouldn’t catch any more than 15 passes.

I should have picked . . . I’m not sure. Greg Mathews? Maybe Koger was the right pick. I said he’d catch 15 passes or less, and the spiteful bastard caught 16 just to piss me off. Regardless, he dropped a lot of passes in the second half of the season and got phased out of the offense a bit. It’s arguable who was the most disappointing, but I’m satisfied with my pick. I think most Michigan fans expected more production from the tight end spot.

Most Disappointing Defensive Player
Last year’s pick: Ryan Van Bergen. I said he’d end up with about 20 tackles and a couple sacks.

I should have picked . . . Obi Ezeh. Maybe Jonas Mouton. Those inside linebackers made a lot of Michigan fans sad. It might be a little harsh to put Ezeh here, since he had a bad back and everything. But it’s one of the two. Both were benched at various points, and Mouton had the same number of tackles as cornerback Donovan Warren. That’s not good. Meanwhile, Van Bergen basically doubled my predictions – he had 40 tackles and 5 sacks. Good for him.

In Summary . . .
Well, the results are a mixed bag. Out of twelve predictions, six of them were spot-on. That’s 50% (I’d like to thank my 4th grade teacher for the math skills). Technically, I guess I should get a slight deduction for only picking Graham and Mesko as All-Big Ten First Team; the coaches agreed with me, but the media added Warren. That’s 49%. But I think I should get a few points for Koger as Most Disappointing Offensive Player, as well as a slight bump for Woolfolk as Breakout Defensive Player. That puts me at right around 55%.

So . . . 55% of the time, I’m right every time. Perhaps I should not be trusted.

Go blue!

8Aug 2010
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2010 Countdown: #26 Junior Hemingway


Name: Junior Hemingway
Height: 6’1″
Weight: 227 lbs.
High school: Conway High School in Conway, SC
Position: Wide receiver
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #21
Last year: I ranked Hemingway #20 and said he’d be the breakout offensive player. He had 16 catches for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Okay, I was duped. I thought that the arrival of Tate Forcier would mean more passes thrown to the outside receivers. I predicted that Hemingway would be 2009’s breakout offensive player (in retrospect, Roy Roundtree should probably have been given that title). Even the opening game against WMU seemed to bode well for my prediction skills, when he caught 5 balls for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Hemingway was still slow (10 punt returns for 86 yards, an 8.6 yard average) and slightly injury prone, dealing with nagging injuries much of the season.

At 227 lbs., Hemingway is the heaviest receiver in my Michigan memory. He reportedly has great athleticism when going after the ball and getting it at its highest point, but the aforementioned “slowness” is a bit of a problem sometimes. No longer do I see him as a potential breakout player, not with Denard Robinson leading the charge to start at quarterback and Roundtree emerging at wideout. Hopefully Hemingway can block in the running game and make occasional plays in the passing game, but Robinson and the running backs should lead a powerful, explosive, run-oriented offense in 2010. I think Hemingway missed his small window of opportunity to step out front and become a star, but he has two years to prove me wrong.

Prediction for 2010: Starting wide receiver; 25 receptions, 300 yards, 4 touchdowns