Tag: Rich Rodriguez

Poll Results: Who will be Michigan’s coach in 2011?

Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez

Last week I posted a poll with the question “Who will be Michigan’s head coach in 2011?”  These are the results of that poll:

80% said Rich Rodriguez
16% said Jim Harbaugh
1% said Brady Hoke
1% said Other

I said a few weeks ago that I think Rodriguez will be fired.  I’m not totally convinced that firing Rodriguez would be a good idea, but I’m sticking with that prediction.  We’ll find out for sure in a week or two.

Mailbag: Will Rich Rodriguez return in 2011?

Frustrated.

Dear Magnus,

I’m a long time reader, first time writer.

I’d like to know if a) you think Rodriguez will be fired and b) you think he should be fired.  Please keep your response to 10,000 words or less.

Thanks,

Matt

Thanks for the e-mail, Matt.

These are difficult questions to answer, but I’m just a blogger, so my opinion really doesn’t matter.  So what the hell, let’s go for it.

Do I think that Rodriguez will be fired?  To put it bluntly, yes.  I think the din of disapproval has grown too loud.  People expected more when he was hired, and they expected it faster.  To the vast majority, THIS IS MICHIGAN, and Lloyd Carr couldn’t possibly have left the cupboard this bare.  And to an extent, they’re right.  I have a hard time believing that a Lloyd Carr-coached team would have wandered through a season with as little of a clue about how to play defense as this 2010 squad has, and the mind boggling amount of attrition over the past few years probably could have been stemmed in some way.  How?  I don’t know.  But other programs have gone through coaching changes without losing 17 players in their first three recruiting classes (2008-2010) like Rodriguez has, and that’s not counting the droves who were already in Ann Arbor and were subsequently driven off by Rodriguez’s rules, conditioning, or attitude.

Athletic director David Brandon has been publicly supportive for the most part, and I think he’s done a good job of standing by Rodriguez.  I don’t think Brandon had his mind made up when he was hired that Rodriguez would be gone after 2010, but he has probably reached that conclusion over the past few months.  The 0-9 record against Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State might have been the nail in the coffin for Rodriguez, who lost all of those games handily in 2010.  As I said in my post the other day, the 7-5 record this season was what I expected.  But just because Michigan people expected that season doesn’t mean that they’ll accept it.

Do I think Rodriguez should be fired?  The answer to that is a little murkier.  With even a halfway decent defense, this team could have been 9-3 or 10-2.  Wisconsin and Ohio State were tanks this year; Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan State were all fairly beatable, in my opinion.  If David Brandon sat down Rodriguez and said, “Look, we’re going to hire this particular guy to run a 4-3 (or 3-4 or 4-2-5 or even 3-3-5) defense, and you will leave him alone to do his own thing,” then that might be the difference.  But should an athletic director really have to do that?  If Brandon has to tell Rodriguez what defense to run, then Brandon might as well trade in his suit and tie for a whistle and a headset.  The defense was bound to be bad because of all the youth, but you can’t tell me that it had to be this bad.  Not 109th in total defense and 102nd in scoring defense.

As far as I’m concerned, it’s Harbaugh or bust.  I don’t want Brady Hoke just because “He’s a Michigan man.”  Les Miles’ road to Ann Arbor has essentially been blocked.  I don’t want a first-time head coach like Gus Malzahn, the offensive coordinator from Auburn (who would likely face some of the same resistance Rodriguez has).  Michigan shouldn’t hire some guy just because that guy’s name happens to not be Rich Rodriguez.

If Harbaugh balks, I think Michigan ought to keep Rodriguez and go after a proven defensive coordinator.  I wouldn’t be opposed to the idea of bringing in West Virginia’s Jeff Casteel, who might be out of a job if WVU head coach Bill Stewart’s rumored retirement comes to fruition.  But whoever the new coordinator would be, he would have to be given some autonomy over the defense.

I know that’s not an extremely definitive answer, but without knowing Harbaugh’s intentions or the future of Casteel (among other moving parts), it’s difficult to make a decision right this moment.

Mailbag: Will Rodriguez keep his job?

Maybe it’s too early to speculate, but do you think RR has any realistic chance of being back next year? I don’t know what Mary Sue Coleman and David Brandon think, but the mediocrity of the product on the field, especially the defense, combined with the violations related to practice time, lead me to believe that he’s in trouble.

But I think the most troubling sign for RR is that he seems to have completely lost the support of the very, very large alumni fan base. As an alum (’91) I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but even with this 5-0 start, I saw a lot of the same problems as last year, ie with the defense and the complete inability to retain recruits. But this defense is ridiculous, with the inexperience, lack of pass rush, and stubborn, blind devotion to the 3-3-5.

Personally, I think he should be gone. Bu do you think that’ll happen? And do you think there’s any realistic scenario with the last month of the season where he ends up saving his job? I’d ask you about potential successors, but I sure we’ll get to deal with that on November 29th.

Thanks,
Ben

As for the first question, yes, I do see a realistic chance for Rich Rodriguez to retain his job into 2011.  Michigan has a realistic shot at beating Illinois and Purdue, although both will likely be shootouts.  I think Michigan has a chance to win any game they play, if only because of the big play abilities of the offense.  That doesn’t mean that the Wolverines should be favored in all four remaining games, but anything can happen when you put up 400 or 500 yards on a weekly basis.  I said before the season that I expected Michigan to have a 7-5 season, and I always thought that would be enough to save Rodriguez’s job.  This is gut-check time, but I don’t think the final nail has been put in the coffin.

Rodriguez hasn’t done himself any favors this year.  The abysmal play of the defense could have been avoided; I’ve never seen such an inexperienced defense, and yet this inexperienced defense has run so many fronts and coverages that they can’t possibly know what’s going on every play.  Rodriguez has continued to suffer from attrition (Vlad Emilien, Austin White, Justin Turner, Anthony Lalota, etc.), and arguably the best player in their 2010 class – someone who would have immediately been the best athlete on defense – failed to qualify (Demar Dorsey).  Even some of Rodriguez’s decisions on offense have been questionable, although it’s hard to argue with the production of that unit.  Overall, Rodriguez hasn’t done a great job of coaching this team, but ten freshmen (redshirt and true freshmen) played defense for Michigan on Saturday.  I have no idea how to feel about Michigan’s defense from that perspective.  I mean, it’s partly Rodriguez’s fault that so many freshmen played and so many potential upperclassmen have departed.  At the same time, I don’t know that those departed players would be much better than 18-year-olds.

The bottom line is that winning cures all.  Rodriguez may have alienated a large fan base, but if he reels off wins in 3 out of these last 4 games or wins a bowl game, maybe the fan base starts to come around.  I like to think that Michigan fans are classier and smarter than other teams’ fans, but the truth is that Wolverine fans would love Carrot Top if he could coach this team to 9 or 10 wins.

I have to admit that although I’ve been adamant that Rodriguez needed at least three seasons to establish himself in Ann Arbor, Michigan’s performance on Saturday really shook my confidence in his ability to be at Michigan for the long term.  I used to cling to the notion that Rodriguez needed at least one season with an upperclassman quarterback before we could really determine whether he could be successful.  Well, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson will both be juniors in 2011.  But guess what?  Even with junior quarterbacks next season, this defense will be littered with oodles of sophomores.  Waiting for experience seems to be a never ending cycle under Rodriguez, because any kid who doesn’t earn playing time by his sophomore year decides to book it for Rutgers or Temple or Colorado.  I honestly have no clue whether Rodriguez will be here in 2011 or not, but my gut feeling says a resume highlighted by Big Ten wins over Minnesota, Indiana (twice), and 2008 Wisconsin – and that’s it – probably doesn’t make powerful people very happy.

Penn State 41, Michigan 31

Happier now?  No?  Yeah, me either.

Michigan lost last night.  I’m not sure if you heard, but it was bad.

Sad bullets:

Michigan’s defense is still atrocious.  Matt McGloin, a former walk-on who has been the borderline third-stringer for the Nittany Lions, completed 17 of 28 passes for 250 yards and 1 touchdown (plus 1 rushing touchdown).  Furthermore, the Wolverines were unable to force a turnover even once.  Running back Evan Royster was averaging 64 yards a game until this point, and he torched the Wolverines for 150 yards on 29 carries; his 5.2 yards per carry average would have been significantly higher if Penn State wasn’t simply trying to run out the clock at the end of the game and slamming into a stacked line.  The defense got one important stop in the game, but a hurting offense – missing its top two tight ends and its starting quarterback, and with a hodge podge offense line – put up 435 yards and 41 points.

Vincent Smith isn’t good at running.  You all know my thoughts on where Vincent Smith belongs in the pecking order at running back on this team, but here’s where he ranks among the rest of the Big Ten’s lead rushers.  Smith had 9 carries for 24 yards against a depleted Penn State defense and behind a solid offensive line.  Stephen Hopkins had a slightly better day running the ball, and Michael Shaw’s lone rushing attempt went for 4 yards.  I wish I had a good reason for offensive genius Rich Rodriguez only being able to squeeze out the tenth best yards per carry average for a running back in the Big Ten, but I don’t. 

White, UW: 86 carries, 570 yards, 6.6 ypc, 9 TD
Edwin Baker, MSU: 124 carries, 800 yards, 6.5 ypc, 7 TD
Leveon Bell, MSU: 95 carries, 585 yards, 6.2 ypc, 8 TD
Dierking, Purdue: 67 carries, 403 yards, 6.0 ypc, 3 TD
Clay, UW: 160 carries, 887 yards, 5.5 ypc, 13 TD
Royster, PSU: 117 carries, 600 yards, 5.1 ypc, 4 TD
Dan Herron, OSU: 129 carries, 634 yards, 4.9 ypc, 12 TD
Leshoure, Illinois: 158 carries, 780 yards, 4.9 ypc, 6 TD
Robinson, Iowa: 172 carries, 806 yards, 4.7 ypc, 10 TD
Vincent Smith, Michigan: 79 carries, 349 yards, 4.4 ypc, 4 TD
Darius Willis, Indiana: 64 carries, 278 yards, 4.3 ypc, 4 TD
Bennett, Minnesota: 104 carries, 444 yards, 4.3 ypc, 2 TD
Trumpy, Northwestern: 74 carries, 307 yards, 4.1 ypc, 2 TD

Freshmen play like freshmen.  On a long completed pass thrown by McGloin last night, I remember seeing freshman cornerback Cullen Christian, freshman free safety Ray Vinopal, and redshirt freshman wide receiver-turned-free safety-turned-quasi-linebacker Cameron Gordon converging on the play.  I honestly don’t know that I’ve ever seen a more inexperienced defense.  And that doesn’t even include the pain of watching a perfectly positioned Terrence Talbott watch a ball whistle right past his perfectly positioned arm and into the belly of a PSU wide receiver. 

Denard Robinson runs the ball TOO MUCH.  Holy crap, Rich Rodriguez.  When are you going to learn that you’re driving Robinson into the ground by running him 27, 28, 29 times a game?  Sure, Robinson had 27 carries for 191 yards and 3 touchdowns.  He had a great game (running the ball, anyway).  But he also missed time due to injury for the sixth time out of eight games.  If he’s such a valuable runner, put him at running back and give the snaps to a quarterback who can actually pass the ball, Tate Forcier.  While I haven’t been a fan of changing Robinson’s position up to this point, the gaping hole at running back makes me think the Forcier/Robinson combo in the backfield might not be such a bad idea after all.  In case you’re wondering, Robinson is averaging 20.5 carries a game so far this season.

So much for the bye week.  We thought Michigan would be able to heal its injuries and put together a good game plan for a struggling Penn State team.  But Mike Martin re-injured his ankle injury and missed most of the game, Denard Robinson got dinged up again, and running back Michael Shaw totaled one carry.  Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense couldn’t cover the flats, couldn’t break on deep balls, and couldn’t stop a paltry running game.  And Jeremy Gallon still looks like a lineman trying to catch the ball; instead of letting a kickoff go into the endzone for a touchback, he dropped the ball and then kicked it out of bounds at his own 2-yard line.  I don’t really feel like the week off helped this team at all.

Greg Robinson is gone after this year.  I’m almost sure of it.  Somebody’s head has to roll after this year’s performance, and Rodriguez will be lucky if it’s not his.  But I do not expect Greg Robinson to return in 2011, whether the defense has been littered with freshmen or not.  This is the worst defense in Michigan history and perhaps the worst in the country.

Michigan State 34, Michigan 17



Michael Shaw carried 4 times for 29 yards in Saturday’s loss.


Well, that was ugly.  I guess this is what it looks like when Michigan’s offense gets shut down (or, in this case, shuts itself down).  I predicted an MSU victory in Friday’s game preview, but I didn’t think it would be a blowout.  Unfortunately, Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson reverted back to 2009 form at times on Saturday, throwing 3 interceptions and making poor reads in the running and passing games.  Here are some thoughts on yesterday’s performance.

Denard Robinson was exposed . . . a little bit.  This has been kind of a problem for Robinson all year long, but yesterday Michigan State’s defense took advantage of it: Denard doesn’t have great ball placement.  When defenses play zone coverage, his receivers do a good job of sitting down in a hole and waiting for the ball.  In turn, Denard does a good job of throwing to those holes in the zone, too.  However, when teams play man coverage, Denard’s accuracy on slants and crossing patterns is erratic.  Rather than throwing low and inside, he tends to throw the ball a) high or b) behind the receiver.  That trait was exposed on Saturday when two throws behind receivers were intercepted by trailing defenders.  In addition, another quarterback rule is “Don’t throw late over the middle of the field.”  Late in the game, Denard threw deep down the middle into double coverage after delaying a bit; the ball was intercepted and ended most of my hope that Michigan could pull one out.

Vincent Smith is not a short yardage running back.  He’s not.  Coach Rodriguez, put someone else – anyone – in at running back on 3rd-and-1.  This is just getting ridiculous.  How many times must you fail at gaining a yard with a 5’6″, 180 lb. running back before you put in somebody capable of breaking a tackle or pushing the pile?  Not only has it happened a few times this year, but Rodriguez also failed to put in a bigger, more powerful back in the 2009 Illinois game after Roy Roundtree was caught at the 1-yard line; Rodriguez left in a notoriously soft runner (Carlos Brown) instead of running Kevin Grady or Brandon Minor.  This is becoming a weekly, yearly problem.  Rodriguez obviously trusts freshman Stephen Hopkins enough to play him in a big rivalry game like this (Hopkins’s two carries went for 7 and 6 yards).  He’s 6’0″ and 227 lbs.  Give him the ball.

Run the ball.  Michigan averaged 4.8 yards a carry, and the running backs carried 13 times for 76 yards (5.8 yards per carry).  Late in the game, I understand going away from the pass.  Until then, Michigan should run run run when it’s working.

Maybe Tate Forcier should have played.  Forcier, 2009’s season-long starter, was sitting on the bench.  Robinson, a potential Heisman contender, was having a bad day.  Once the game reached a point where passing the ball every play was a given, I wouldn’t have minded if Forcier was inserted.  He’s a more accomplished passer and has better recognition skills.  He’s also 13-for-13 on the season and has some experience – and success – with late-game heroics (see: Indiana 2009, Notre Dame 2009, Michigan State 2009).  Robinson has improved greatly as a passer, but many of his passing stats can be attributed to the threat of the run.  Once defenses can sit back and play the pass almost exclusively, he’s going to be behind the eight ball.  I don’t think Forcier could have necessarily won the game for Michigan at that point, but he would have given the Wolverines a better chance, in my opinion.

Mike Martin is a beast.  Martin left the game late due to an illegal chop block that caused a lower leg injury.  However, before that he was making Michigan State center John Stipek look like a statue.  Martin repeatedly beat Stipek off the snap and into the A-gap of Martin’s choice.  Hopefully his injury isn’t too serious, because backup nose tackle Adam Patterson isn’t very good at all.

Rich Rodriguez’s clock management needs work. 

• At the end of the first half, Rodriguez made bad decisions.  After a run play on which the clock was left to run, Rodriguez had two timeouts but ran the ball on first down.  Instead of calling one of those timeouts immediately, he wasted precious seconds before calling the first.  Then Robinson completed a long pass down the right sideline to Martavious Odoms, leaving :03 seconds on the clock.  Really the only choice at that point was to send out Seth Broekhuizen for a field goal, which Broekhuizen made.  However, if the first timeout had been called quicker, Michigan would have had approximately :07 seconds on the clock; they could have taken a shot at the end zone and still had time to kick the field goal if that attempt failed. 
• At the end of the game, Rodriguez made another mistake.  With about 6 minutes left (if I remember correctly), Michigan was down by three scores and had a 3rd-and-19.  He called for an immediately checkdown to Michael Shaw, which gained 10 yards.  Okay, that’s fine.  I understand the theory.  Get half the yards on 3rd down, and then gain the other 9 yards on 4th down, right?  Nope, after the “give up” pass to Shaw, Rodriguez sent out his punting unit.  Down three scores with six minutes left . . . and you’re going to punt?  Go for the win!  What difference does it make if you fail to get a first down and MSU wins by a score of 41-17?  I’d rather have a chance to win the game than save face.

Michigan’s defense isn’t good enough to give up penalty yards, too.  The team only had three penalties for 35 yards on Saturday, but all three were against the defense.  Obi Ezeh and James Rogers each had a 15-yard facemask penalty, and Tony Anderson’s running into the kicker penalty at the end of the game sealed the Wolverines’ fate.

Michigan’s secondary is S-L-O-W.  Especially once James Rogers exited the game due to cramps, holy cow . . . I’ve never seen a slower secondary at Michigan.  Cam Gordon had no chance to catch Edwin Baker on Baker’s 61-yard touchdown run.  Rogers’s replacement at cornerback, Cullen Christian, has been noted by this blog (and many others’ observations) for his lack of speed; he was almost immediately beaten deep by Spartan receiver Mark Dell.  Cornerback J.T. Floyd and safety Jordan Kovacs both lack speed, too, although neither one was really exposed on Saturday.

Denard Robinson was off.  I don’t know what exactly was wrong.  He seemed to be moving fine.  He just wasn’t making the right reads in the passing or the running game.  It didn’t seem like he was seeing holes as quickly as in previous weeks.  Some credit goes to the Spartans for getting penetration with their defensive front four, but I don’t think Robinson was on top of his game.  And after throwing only one interception in the previous five weeks, he threw three today to an average MSU secondary.  It didn’t help that his receivers had subpar days, either.  I thought Roy Roundtree would have a big day – and he had opportunities – but Roundtree dropped two passes, and Robinson missed him a couple times, too.  He also overthrew a wide open Darryl Stonum in the endzone in the first quarter.  The deep ball needs work.

The defense continues to be crappy.  Michigan State’s quarterbacks completed 73% of their passes for 287 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions.  The Spartans averaged 5.9 yards per carry, and running backs Edwin Baker (6.7 yards per carry) and Le’Veon Bell (11.1) were outstanding.  The good news is that since MSU likes to run the ball, Michigan has now moved up to #119 in the country against the pass (ahead of only Tulsa).  The bad news is that Michigan has dropped ten spots to #112 in overall defense (New Mexico is better) since last week, on the strength of MSU’s 536 total yards.

I realize this post is quite negative, but on the heels of a blowout and three straight losses to Michigan State, I have a hard time finding positives.